Day: March 3, 2011

“Bosnia and Herzegovina does not exist beyond the entities”

With gratitude for the translation, I have posted Milorad Dodik’s letter to the Ambassadors of the member countries of the EU and Peace Implementation Council in BiH, in which among many other things he claims that “Bosnia and Herzegovina does not exist beyond the entities.”

The letter has been carefully prepared by Dodik’s lawyers and merits being read in its entirety.  Not being a lawyer, I would not want to get into a tussle on the legal issues it raises.

But it is also a political document, one intended to appeal particularly to Americans, whose constitution is cited repeatedly as justification for Dodik’s views.

What are those views?  In short, that the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina never existed (“The only thing true is that the „Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina“ did never exist at all in accordance with the international law”), that Republika Srpska and the Croat Community of Herzeg-Bosna were the only legitimate institutions in Bosnia before Dayton (i.e. the Bosniaks who were loyal to the Republic don’t count), that the High Representative is an anti-democratic institution imposed on unwilling subjects, and that the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina that emerged from Dayton is nothing more than the two entities, supplemented later by Brcko district, and can have no functions other than those explicitly assigned to it in the Dayton constitution, or delegated to it by the entities.  Not once are the requirements of NATO or EU membership mentioned.

I won’t quarrel with this letter point by point–I’ll leave that to others.  I’ll just note that the history is dramatically incorrect and even offensive, as the letter is addressed to the representatives of states that had recognized the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina, despite the genocidal efforts of Republika Srpska and its Belgrade master to wipe it off the map.

More importantly for the future, Dodik’s views are not compatible with a functioning Bosnia and Herzegovina that can meet the obligations of NATO and European Union membership.  For anyone who still believes Dodik can be cajoled into supporting such a state, I recommend reading the whole thing.  There is no way.

What Dodik is committed to here (and elsewhere) is the creation of a Republika Srpska that is sovereign in everything but recognition, which he no doubt believes will follow some day when the internationals tire further and finally accept his version of Bosnian history.  He is also committed to grabbing enough state property to keep his ship afloat for a few more years, as it is in parlous financial condition.

The question is whether Washington and Brussels will read, understand and react in ways that make it clear that the only Bosnia and Herzegovina they are prepared to accept is one that can negotiate membership in NATO and the EU.  That state will need to go beyond Dayton.  The next test for Dodik is whether he is prepared to create a Sarajevo government that has all the powers it requires to take on the responsibilities of NATO and EU membership.  I’m not holding my breath.

 


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What will Friday prayers bring?

Tomorrow is Friday again, and across the “greater” Middle East there will be prayers and restlessness.  The big questions:

  • Saudi Arabia:  intellectuals have been signing petitions in favor of constitutional monarchy, but the experts are still betting that people will not go the street–it is illegal to demonstrate, and socially disapproved.  We’ll see.
  • Libya:  most of the country is liberated already, but will crowds risk turning out in Tripoli?
  • Egypt:  Mubarak’s buddy prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, has stepped down.  El Baradei at least is calling this a turning point.  Will it open the way for real regime change that the military has been resisting?
  • Tunisia:  Ben Ali’s buddy prime minister has already stepped down, opening the way for real change, but the country is burdened with refugees from Libya.  The Brits are at least trying to relieve that burden.
  • Yemen:  President Saleh has said he’ll step down in 2013.  The political party opposition, buoyed by tribal support, is proposing he do it by the end of this year.  Will that be enough to split his opponents and save his tuchas?
  • Bahrain:  formal opposition parties have presented reform demands in an opening bid for negotiations with the monarchy.  Will that split them from the demonstrators?
  • Iraq:  The violent crackdown last weekend amplified what otherwise might have been relatively quiet demonstrations against corruption and for better services.  Has the government learned its lesson?
  • Jordan and Syria:  little noise, as their king who allows demonstrations and president who doesn’t try to feed a reform half loaf to relatively weak oppositions.  Will they succeed?
  • Iran:  crackdown in full swing with the arrest of Green Movement stars Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi and their wives.  Ahmedinejad is increasingly dominant and effective against both clerical and lay opponents, inside and outside the regime.  Can he keep it up?

I can’t remember a time I looked forward so much to Friday, with anticipation but also with trepidation.  The world could be looking very different by Sunday.

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