At last some post-war thinking
Michelle Kelemen on NPR today says the London conference will discuss post-war plans, and the Secretary of State met there with a representative of the Libyan opposition, contrary to what had been foreseen. The Transitional National Council is said to have issued a statement promising a constitution and free elections that includes the following:
there is “no alternative to building a free and democratic society and ensuring the supremacy of international humanitarian law and human rights declarations.”
The locution is a bit backhanded, but still all to the good.
The President last night was at pains to emphasize that regime change by military means would be a mistake, because that is what we did in Iraq and look what a mess it got us into. Alfred North Whitehead would have called this a “fallacy of misplaced concreteness.” What caused the mess was inappropriate, inadequate and incomplete transition planning, corrected by a hastily arranged and ineffectual occupation.
We are at risk of committing at least the first part of this mistake in Libya (I trust no one will occupy, pretty much no matter what happens). The President is correct that the United States can duck primary responsibility for the reconstruction of Libya. That belongs to the Transitional National Council (TNC). The Europeans should provide most of the support, since they are close neighbors to Libya, which supplies a significant portion of their oil and gas.
But there is no substitute for American leadership in ensuring that this process gets off to a good start. Washington is sending diplomats to Benghazi to establish liasion with the TNC. This is important, even if late. I hope the Europeans, including the European Council and Commission, are doing likewise. Keeping Washington and Brussels on the same page is vital.
The other big piece of the diplomatic puzzle is getting Gaddafi out of there. Military pressure is indispensable in doing this. If the battle for Sirte turns into a stalemate, it will be much harder to convince Gaddafi and his family to board. The President said our allies would keep the pressure on, even as the U.S. lightens its military activities. I hope that is going to happen.
Some will regret Gaddafi escaping, but in my view there will be time and place for his accountability. He is not yet indicted by the International Criminal Court, which I hope has investigators on the ground in Libya. Remember Charles Taylor: he was allowed to flee to Nigeria, but arrested not too long thereafter.
Of course it is possible that the Libyans will inflict accountability on Gaddafi and his family in the time-honored way. That is not in my view a preferred outcome, because it is a bad foundation for the New Libya and could well lead in the direction of replacing Gaddafi rather than changing the regime to the freer and more democratic one the TNC says is unavoidable.
PS: Here, courtesy of The Guardian, is the Interim National Council (aka Transtional National Council) Vision for a Democratic Libya. First rate, but I fear written in English. That is not entirely a good sign.
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There’s not going to be any post-war situation to worry about if they don’t concentrate on winning the war, or helping the opposition win it, or persuading Gaddhafi to lose it. Pinning all our hopes on guys in pick-up trucks without even helmets who are expected to face tanks and artillery should probably be an impeachable offense for the potential long-term damage it does to our national interests, which depend to an uncomfortable degree on being able to rely on oil exports from a stable Middle East. Ok, so it was the other guy who spent all our spare cash and wore out the military and used up any good-will we enjoyed in the world. It’s not fair, but the world is not a notably fair place.