peacefare.net

Get Syrious: something besides the wedding

Yes, something else is happening today:  the Syrian protesters are going to discover whether they can bring around their brethren in the army and thereby shake the foundations of the regime.  Protests are just beginning today as I write this–no clear results so far.

I asked my bit of the twittersphere yesterday whether they thought the army would continue to fire on protesters.  The smart money (or at least most of the money) said “yes.”  One tweep even suggested it was “in the nature of Ba’athist regimes” to survive this kind of thing.  I’m not sure what that means, but Bashar al Assad is definitely putting up a strong fight, if that is the right term for when you shoot an unarmed demonstrator.

The protest leadership is appealing to the army and defense minister to play a role in the transition, following the Egyptian precedent.  If Wikipedia is to be believed, the Syrian armed forces are 646,500 strong when fully mobilized, but more than half are reservists and the bulk are conscripts who serve only 18 months.  Hard to believe they are well trained or equipped, and most will not want to fire on fellow Syrians.  But so far there is little sign of resistance to the regime from within the armed forces.  We are hearing about local resignations from the Ba’ath party, but few soldiers have joined the demonstrators and none so far as I know have refused to fire on them.

The issue is not one only for the security forces.  The protesters will have to maintain nonviolent discipline and reach out to the uniformed military, making it clear that they are not the enemy and will not be attacked.  This is best done with such large numbers of people in the street that the military and police will not want to precipitate chaos.  The demonstrations in Syria have been widespread but not large.

The international community, such as it is, has done little to warn off the Assad regime or protect the demonstrators.  The UN Security Council seems unable to agree to a statement, never mind a resolution.  U.S. and EU sanctions are still under preparation.

With the internet and phone service largely cut off and foreign journalists barred, today is going to be a difficult day for the protesters.  But no one ever suggested that getting rid of the autocratic regime in Serbia was going to be easy.

This video purports to be today in Damascus, where demonstrations are said to have broken out even in the center of the city: