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Off course

I’m no friend of Mohammed Morsi.  I once even advocated voting for Mubarak crony Ahmed Shafiq, in order to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) from monopolizing Egypt’s elected institutions (that was before the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces* dissolved the MB-dominated lower house of parliament).  But the notion that Egypt would be better off if street demonstrators overthrow him now is unconvincing.  The Egyptian revolution is already off course.  What it needs is a steady hand at the tiller, pointing in the right direction.

Admittedly it is hard to picture Morsi being the right guy to skipper the Egyptian ship of state.  He is no George Washington, refusing to be crowned king.  He is much more likely to point Egypt in the direction of renewed autocracy (of the Islamist variety) than to get it back on course toward democracy.  That’s where the street demonstrations are vital:  they need to be nonviolent and disciplined efforts to correct Morsi’s navigation.  Their aim should not be to overthrow Morsi but to ensure that Egypt gets a decent constitution and goes to elections as soon as possbile in a climate that is democratic and pluralist.

Morsi assumed more autocratic powers this week mainly to counter the risk that the judiciary would block his interest in making Egypt a more Islamist state than it has been in the past.  The performance of the judiciary has been so erratic and unreliable that its threat is uncertain, but it is still an important counterweight to Morsi’s exercise of power lies (and he knows it).  Egypt has lots of smart lawyers.  They need to work overtime in the next few months to ensure that Morsi is unable to put in place a political system that makes the MB a permanent fixture in power.  One of the many ironies of the current situation is that the draft constitution under preparation is, as Nathan Brown puts it, not all that “problematic.” It will be a struggle to keep it that way now that Morsi has unlimited power.

While I ran into a bit of criticism on Twitter yesterday for suggesting it, the internationals (including the United States) also have a role to play.  They should play it behind the scenes, making clear to anyone who will listen that correct treatment of women and minorities in the new Egypt is a sine qua non of international assistance.  The notion that outsiders have nothing to say in the matter because they so long supported Hosni Mubarak is unconvincing to me.  American and European influence may be marginal, but important decisions are made at the margin.  Support for moderates who share American ideals should not be optional.  It may be a long-term investment, but one worth making.

While no doubt Morsi has gained political weight internationally with his successful mediation of the latest Hamas/Israel conflagration, he remains vulnerable in many ways.  Egypt’s economy is in serious trouble.  Its people are poor and restive.  Extremists in Sinai are challenging not only Israel’s security but also Egypt’s authority.  The Egyptian army is a threat to no one.  Iran and Turkey are becoming the main regional powers, leaving Egypt out of the equation while they fight a proxy war in Syria.

While my blogging colleagues never tire of announcing that American influence in the Middle East is coming to an end, that is not how I see it.  Any leader of Egypt needs the United States to continue to provide military assistance, to help restore Egypt to its regional role and to ensure it gets the money it needs from the international financial institutions.  There is a price for this kind of help:  first and foremost in maintaining the peace agreement with Israel, but also in keeping Egypt to a democratic course.  Egyptians will play the primary role, but internationals can help.

*PS:  This was an error.  It was the judiciary that dissolved the lower house, during the period of SCAF domination of the revolution.