Month: December 2012
Listing
The signs that Bashar al Asad is in serious trouble are many:
- His security forces are having a hard time securing the area around Damascus airport;
- They have lost a number of aircraft, helicopters and air force bases in recent days;
- Russian President Putin’s visit to Turkey has generated rumors that Moscow’s support for Asad is fading;
- Iran has intensified diplomacy with Turkey and Lebanon;
- President Obama has issued a stern warning about the use of chemical weapons:
None of these signs is definitive, but taken together they suggest that Syria’s ship of state is listing and could sink.
I’m not sure what to make of President Obama’s statement about chemical weapons. My initial inclination is to believe that we really do have intelligence that suggests Damascus is getting ready to use them. But then I remember the Tonkin Gulf incident and (non-existent) weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq. Could it be that Washington is preparing to use an alarm about chemical weapons to justify an intervention that it has decided it has to undertake, or at least to threaten, for other reasons?
The questions don’t stop with President Obama. Is Bashar al Asad really nuts enough to think he can poison his population into submission? Or does he diddle every once in a while with his chemical weapons stocks in order to jerk the Americans’ chain? Maybe even to test our intel capabilities? Or to try to restore the wall of fear that would enable him to rule once again?
Here is what the official Syrian news agency has to say about the use of chemical weapons:
FM: Syria Stresses It Won’t Use Any Chemical Weapons, If They Exist, against Its People No Matter the Circumstances
I’m finding it a bit difficult to picture the guy in Damascus who tweets this. Is it tongue in cheek? Or is he just reflecting what the Foreign Minister said as accurately as he can?
The last guy to make a statement of this sort on behalf of the Syrian government, in July, was Jihad Makdissi (it’s in the first few minutes of this newscast from July 23):
According to Rachel Maddow last night, he has now defected and left Syria. That’s another sign the Syrian ship of state is listing.
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Downward spiral
That’s where the Israel/Palestine negotiations are headed, at least for the moment. BATNA is your “best alternative to a negotiated agreement.” The Palestinians resorted to their BATNA with their successful effort last month at the UN General Assembly to get recognized as a non-member state. Israel is now resorting to its BATNA: freezing of tax revenues it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority and plans to build apartments for Jews in politically sensitive areas of the West Bank. This may not look like negotiation, but it is negotiation of sorts. Just not at a negotiating table.
Israel seems to have a lot better BATNAs than Palestine, at least for the moment. Palestine won a symbolic victory at the UN. Israel can really block the formation of a viable, contiguous Palestinian state on the West Bank by constructing settlements. It can wreck havoc on Palestinian finances, weakening the already feeble Palestinian Authority. Prime Minister Netanyahu is also intent on getting Egypt to take more responsibility for Gaza, thus further reducing the possibility that Fatah and Hamas will get together and confront him with a unified Palestinian polity.
There is a good deal of moaning and groaning among Middle East experts about the inactivity of the Americans. President Obama seems intent on not doing the kind of heavy lifting on the Middle East peace process he attempted at the beginning of his first term. This too is BATNA: if Israelis and Palestinians are going to resort to theirs, he figures he can resort to his, which is not to do much. His minions say we can’t want a solution more than they do.
The irony here is that Israelis are not comfortable going to their BATNA. A (declining) majority of Israeli Jews thinks the Israeli government should accept the Arab Peace Initiative, which is based on Israeli withdrawal from the territories occupied in 1967 in exchange for peace agreements with Arab governments. At the same time, it looks very much as if the Israelis will re-elect Netanyahu, with an even more nationalist coalition than in the past. So things are not headed in the direction most people would like, but they are voting as if they don’t care.
Palestinians are more evenly split on the two-state solution. Their enthusiasm for Hamas, however, is already beginning to fade. as I had predicted. They are exceedingly unhappy with Israel’s construction plans but have no way of responding without making things worse. The best they have been able to do is get the Europeans to make unhappy noises, which is not something likely to affect Israeli behavior.
Meanwhile the Americans are waiting for the parties to come to the table. As Hillary Clinton said last week:
if and when the parties are ready to enter into direct negotiations to solve the conflict, President Obama will be a full partner.
But he seems unwilling or unable to block either the Israeli or the Palestinian resort resort to BATNA. We are not yet in a tailspin in the Middle East, but this is certainly a down spiral.
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An-Nahda in the hot seat
A small group gathered Tuesday at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy to hear Mohamed Bechri, economics professor and former head of Amnesty International in Tunisia, talk about An-Nahda in Tunisia. The moderate Islamists are finding it difficult to maneuver between more conservative Salafi fundamentalists and Tunisia’s still strong secularists.
An-Nahda, present in Tunisia for decades, is often compared to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. There is good reasons to rethink this analogy: the context is different. Daily life has been markedly secular in Tunisia since independence. Tunisia has a landmark women’s code and a strong educational system. Though An-Nahda won a plurality in parliament in the 2011 elections, non-Islamists won 63% of the popular vote. There is a thriving civil society. The Tunisian General Labor Union functioned as the headquarters for the Arab Spring uprising and organized strikes, one of which ended the old regime on February 14, 2011. The non-politicized Tunisian army did not attack civilians during the protests and facilitated a relatively smooth transition between the old regime and the new coalition government.
While the main partner in the post-revolution coalition, An-Nahda has been making concessions. It is no longer pushing for Sharia law, it gave the Ministry of Education to a secular party, it dropped the blasphemy law, and it has agreed to back down on the complementarity issue.
Navigating future tensions between secularists and Salafists will prove difficult. A portion of An-Nahda’s base identifies with the conservative Salafists who protested the jailing of two men suspected of participating in the September 14 attack on inadequately protected U.S. embassy. Many of the services the old regime was able to provide are no longer available. The streets are noticeably dirtier and the government has put in place electricity cuts.
An-Nahda could try to escape pressure from the secularist parties by allying with the Salafists, but that would have serious costs. It would cause the already dwindling number of secularists to resign from the government, inflame nongovernmental organizations and trade unions, and put the government at odds with the international community, whose help An-Nahda needs to turn around Tunisia’s economy.
The current two-track strategy is to condemn Salafi violence and cooperate with nonviolent Salafis. A need is building for An-Nahda to appease the secularists. There is talk of the party conceding to two major demands: reshuffling the government and expanding the leadership troika to include more secularist voices.
Tunisia’s stability is still not assured.
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This week’s peace picks
December starts with a busy week.
1. Working in Fragile States: Conflict Sensitivity and Peacebuilding with Impact, Monday December 3, 9:30 AM – 12:30 PM, Care International
Venue: 1825 I street NW, Washington, DC 20006, 12th Floor
Speakers: Rachel Goldwyn, Jonathan White, Marshall Wallace, John Filson
Violent Conflict and ‘situations of fragility’ represent significant challenges for aid effectiveness. Applying traditional development approaches in an unchanged fashion in such contexts simply does not work. As is now often pointed out, no low income fragile or conflict-affected country has yet to achieve a single Millennium Development Goal. CARE invites you to a morning to discuss how NGOs and donors could be working more effectively in their peacebuilding, development and humanitarian responses in fragile states. First looking at conflict sensitivity and second examining how using theories of change in project design, monitoring and evaluation can improve the results of peacebuilding and other social mobilization programming. Two sessions will offer a platform for discussion, inter-agency learning, and the distribution of two new guides to the topics launched this year. Please feel free to come to one or boths essions, or to follow online via WebEx (for the URL, please email Betsy Deas bdeas@care.org). Refreshments will be served in the interval.
Session 1 – 9:30am-10:30am: ‘How to Guide’ to Conflict Sensitivity
Session 2 – 11:00am – 12:30pm: Defining Theories of Change Towards Peace; Peacebuilding with Impact
RSVP for this even to Betsy Deas at bdeas@care.org.
2. Counterterrorism in Africa, Monday December 3, 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM, George Washington University’s Homeland Security Policy Institute
Venue: The George Washington University, Duques Hall, School of Business, 2201 G Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, First Floor, Room 151
Speakers: Carter H. Ham, W. Russell Ramsey, Frank J. Cilluffo
On Monday, December 3rd, 2012, HSPI will host an event featuring General Carter F. Ham, Commander, U.S. Africa Command. General Ham will share his perspectives on the security challenges and opportunities facing the United States in Africa. He will address a range of issues affecting the regional security and stability of Africa, and will speak to developments in the region, including the terrorism threat in the Maghreb, the Sahel, and in the Horn of Africa.
Register for this event here.
3. US Policy in the Middle East in Obama’s Second Term, Tuesday December 4, 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM, SETA Foundation at Washington DC
Venue: SETA Foundation at Washington DC, 1025 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 1106
Speakers: Rob Malley, Leila Hilal, Trita Parsi, Erol Cebeci, Kadir Ustun
There is a broad range of expectations from President Obama’s second term. Those who expect a dramatically different Middle East policy in his second term cite the unsustainability of the cautious involvement of the first term. Others argue that the US involvement will continue to be highly risk-averse. While the US sorely wants to avoid the high price of missteps and misadventures, the regional turmoil and uncertainty continue unabated, as the regional order is shaken to its core. How will the American position in the region look like over the next four years? What are the vital American interests that may trigger a stronger involvement? How can the US work with regional actors to address stability and legitimate governments simultaneously? What are the prospects of a more robust US role in the Middle East?
Join us for a discussion on the US policy in the Middle East during the second Obama administration.
Register for this event here.
4. China and the Middle East: Rising Power and a Region in Turmoil, Tuesday December 4, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Middle East Institute
Venue: Middle East Institute, 1761 N Street NW, Washington DC, 20036, Boardman Room
Speakers: Yitzhak Shichor, Dawn Murphy, Sam Chester
This program features three experts on China’s relations with the Middle East. The speakers will address two central questions: What challenges has China faced as a result of the political upheaval in the Arab World and the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program? In light of these challenges, how, and how well has China managed to protect and promote its interests in the region? Join us for a discussion on this important and under-examined topic.
Register for this event here.
5. The Future of Humanitarian Action, Tuesday December 4, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 Conference Room
Speakers: Pierre Krähenbühl, William J. Garvelink
Please join ICRC’s Pierre Krähenbühl and CSIS’s Ambassador William J. Garvelink for a discussion of the ‘The Future of Humanitarian Action’, the latest edition of the International Review of the Red Cross, a quarterly publication published by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).
The international community is experiencing serious challenges to the humanitarian aid system. These include the direct targeting of humanitarian personnel, the rise of new actors, new ‘megatrends’ of disasters related to climate change and migration, advances in internet and communication technology and the militarization of aid. ICRC Director of Operations Pierre Krähenbühl will launch this latest edition of the Review, which explores these and other related themes, and complement it with his own global operational perspective. Ambassador Garvelink will then guide this important discussion about the future of humanitarianism
RSVP for this event to Farha Tahir at ftahir@csis.org.
6. Negotiating the Arab Spring: Policy Options, Tuesday December 4, 4:30 PM – 6:30 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS, Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Auditorium
Speakers: Fen Osler Hampson, Ellen Laipson, William Zartman, Regina Joseph, Floor Janssen
Fen Osler Hampson, distinguished fellow and director of the Global Security Centre for International Governance Innovation; Ellen Laipson, president of the Stimson Center; I. William Zartman, professor emeritus at SAIS; and Instituut Clingendael research fellows Regina Joseph and Floor Janssen will discuss this topic
RSVP for this event to itlong@jhu.edu.
7. Comparative Instability in the Balkans and the Middle East, Tuesday December 4, 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS, Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Auditorium
Speaker: David Kanin
David Kanin, professorial lecturer in the SAIS European Studies Program and former senior analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, will discuss this topic. Note: The speaker’s comments will be off the record. A reception will follow the event in Room 812, Rome Building.
For more information contact ntobin@jhu.edu.
8. The Price of Freedom Denied: Religious Conflict in the 21st Century, Wednesday December 5, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS, Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Auditorium
Speaker: Brian Grim
Brian Grim, senior researcher and director of cross-national data at the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion and Public Life, will discuss this topic.
RSVP for this event to slee255@jhu.edu.
9. The Last Refuge: Yemen, Al-Qaeda, and America’s War in Arabia, Wednesday December 5, 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 400
Speakers: Gregory Johnsen, Peter Bergen
Over the past few years, U.S. counterterrorism officials have frequently highlighted the blows America has dealt to al-Qaeda, especially those to its central command in Pakistan and Afghanistan. But officials also continue to warn about the persistent threat posed by al-Qaeda affiliates and sympathizers that have flourished in places such as Yemen and North Africa. Gregory Johnsen, a Ph.D. candidate at Princeton and one of the preeminent scholars of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, examines the organization’s last strongholds in his new book The Last Refuge: Yemen, Al-Qaeda, and America’s War in Arabia. In a recent piece for the New York Review of Books, Robert Worth called Johnsen’s book, “an authoritative and deftly written account of al-Qaeda’s Yemeni incarnation.”
Please join the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program for a conversation with Gregory Johnsen about The Last Refuge and the future of U.S. efforts to counter the violent ideology espoused by al-Qaeda supporters in Yemen
Register for this event here.
10. Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Wednesday December 5, 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS, Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 Kenny-Herter Auditorium
Speaker: Adam Sieminski
Adam Sieminski, administrator at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), will present the agency’s projections of U.S. energy supply, demand and prices to 2040 with the early release of the reference case projections from the “Annual Energy Outlook 2013.”
Members of the media who want to cover this event should contact Felisa Neuringer Klubes in the SAIS Communications Office at 202.663.5626 or fklubes@jhu.edu.
RSVP for this event to saisereglobal@jhu.edu.
11. U.S.-Israeli Missile Defense Cooperative Programs: What Is Next?, Wednesday December 5, 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Heritage Foundation
Venue: Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE, Washington, DC 20002, Lehrman Auditorium
Speakers: Gabriel Scheinmann, Baker Spring, Randy Jennings
This past July President Obama signed the United States-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act, which has been designed to give Israeli forces a qualitative edge over their current and future adversaries. The House version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes $948 million for all cooperative missile defense efforts between the United States and Israel. Specifically, the House version of the NDAA provides $680 million to fund Israel’s Iron Dome System through the fiscal years of 2012 through 2015. There is strong bipartisan congressional support for missile defense cooperation with Israel, which would enhance the overall defense posture for both countries.
Join us as our panel discusses the U.S.-Israeli cooperative missile defense efforts, the role of U.S. experience in cooperating on these issues, and the future of the Iron Dome system. Additionally, the panel will discuss the broader missile defense implications that the U.S. should consider given the success of Iron Dome operations.
Register for this event here.
12. Iranian Influence in the South Caucasus and the Surrounding Region, Wednesday December 5, 2:00 PM, The House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: The House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2170 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC 20515
Speakers: Dan Burton, Ariel Cohen
13. An Evening with the Palestinian Ambassador, Wednesday December 5, 7:30 PM – 9:00 PM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speakers: Marc Gopin, Aziz Abu Sarah, Scott Cooper, Alex Cromwell
Please join the Center for World Religions, Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution as we welcome Palestinian Ambassador Areikat to come and speak to the S-CAR and Mason Community at the Arlington Campus. CRDC’s Co-Executive Director, Aziz Abu Sarah, will introduce the Ambassador, and Dr. Jamil Shami, President for the Middle East in Higher Education, Inc., will moderate the event.
RSVP for this event to crdc@gmu.edu.
14. Weighing Benefits and Costs of International Sanctions on Iran, Thursday December 6, 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: Gregory Newbold, Thomas Pickering, William Reinsch, George Perkovich
The Iran Project will launch their new report “Weighing Benefits and Costs of International Sanctions Against Iran.” The Iran Project’s first report, “Weighing Benefits and Costs of Military Action against Iran,” was released in September 2012. It presented a balanced, non-partisan view of the pros and cons of using force to forestall Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon. This new paper takes the same balanced approach to assessing the benefits and costs of U.S. and U.S.-led international sanctions against Iran.
The paper does not advocate for or against sanctions; nor does it make specific policy recommendations. The writers and signers of this paper, who are senior experts from the national security and foreign policy communities, aim to provide an objective analysis that will contribute to informed debate about a key strategy for addressing one of the most critical security challenges facing the United States.
Lieutenant General Gregory Newbold, Carnegie’s George Perkovich, and William A. Reinsch will discuss the report’s findings. Ambassador Thomas Pickering will moderate.
Register for this event here.
15. FDD’s Washington Forum 2012: “Dictators & Dissidents: Should the West Choose Sides?”, Thursday December 6, 8:15 AM – 5:00 PM, Newseum
Venue: Newseum, 555 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001, please use the Freedom Forum entrance on 6th Street between Pennsylvania Avenue and C Street
Speakers: Joseph Lieberman, Jon Kyl, Daniel Glaser, Robert Ford, Bret Stephens
We invite you to join us at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ (FDD) annual Washington Forum, taking place on Thursday, December 6 at the Newseum in Washington D.C. Speakers discussing this year’s theme, “Dictators and Dissidents: Should the West choose sides?” include Senators Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) and Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Daniel Glaser, Assistant Secretary of Treasury for Terrorist Financing, Ambassador Robert Ford, U.S. Ambassador to Syria, and Bret Stephens, Deputy Editor of The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page, along with a who’s who of experts from Congress, the intelligence and foreign policy communities and the diplomatic corps
Register for this event here.
16. New Authoritarians and the Challenge to Democracy, Thursday December 6, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, The International Forum for Democratic Studies at the National Endowment for Democracy
Venue: 1025 F Street NW, Suite 800, Washington, DC 20004
Speakers: William Dobson, Joshua Stacher, Christopher Walker
The world has changed and today’s autocrats are changing with it. Demonstrating resilience and a keen ability to adapt, leading authoritarian regimes are developing more subtle and sophisticated methods to retain power. To suppress dissent, mass brutality has been replaced by selective safety inspections and tax investigations, as well as arbitrarily applied regulations designed to undercut the activities of independent civil society and opposition groups. New economic resources at the disposal of regimes in Beijing, Moscow, and Caracas have enabled them to bolster their authoritarianism. Meanwhile, the democratic world has been slow to acknowledge and respond to the emergence of these new, more nimble regimes.
Please join us for a discussion featuring William J. Dobson, author of The Dictator’s Learning Curve: Inside the Global Battle for Democracy, and Joshua Stacher, author of Adaptable Autocrats: Regime Power in Egypt and Syria, as they discuss how leaders in China, Egypt, Russia, Venezuela, and other countries have adapted to suppress democratic movements in their countries. Despite the initial excitement surrounding the recent upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa in particular, continuity—not wide-ranging political change—remains the hallmark of many of the world’s autocracies.
Register for this event here.
17. Untangling Maritime Disputes in Asia, Thursday December 6, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: Yann-huei Song, Edward Chen, James L. Schoff, Peter Dutton
Over the past six months, tensions have escalated in the South and East China Seas. Japan and China have grabbed headlines in a spat over China’s claims to the Japanese administered Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, while Taiwan has asserted its own claim in the region and proposed talks to settle the disputes. Yet these are only the latest in a long list of territorial disputes involving many countries and many competing claims. As events progress, what was already a complex and complicated issue over minuscule territories has drawn big power attention.
Two eminent Taiwanese scholars, Yann-huei Song and Edward I-hsin Chen, will join Carnegie’s James L. Schoff to discuss maritime disputes in the region, and prospects for their peaceful resolution. Peter Dutton, a noted expert on Chinese territorial claims at the U.S. Naval War College, will moderate.
Register for this event here.
18. Has the Arab Spring Come to Jordan?, Friday December 7, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS, Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: Marwan Muasher, Randa Habib, Naseer Alomari, Yassin Sabha
Marwan Muasher, director of the Carnegie Endowment Middle East program and former Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister; Naseer Alomari, Jordanian blogger; Randa Habib (participating through Skype), director of the Agence France Presse Foundation and journalist; Yassin Sabha (President of MENA Club and Jordanian political analyst).
Note: SAIS will also host a live webcast of the event at www.sais-jhu.edu/pressroom/live.html
RSVP for this event to menaclub.sais@gmail.com.
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Iraq untethered
I’ve got a piece with that title in the December issue of Current History. Too bad they left an earlier title, “Iraq Unbound,” on the cover. Of course the piece is now two months old and a lot has happened in the meanwhile. Prime Minister Maliki has done some saber rattling against the Kurds, who have managed to respond in a more or less unified way without making things worse. If you want an update on that, Niqash has a good one. I am still hoping Iraq will muddle through, but it is not going to be easy with Syria imploding next door and the Iran nuclear issue unresolved in the backyard.
By way of update on my own views, I did this interview for the Kurdish weekly Bayan on Thursday:
– How do you see the future relations between KRG and Baghdad as the tension is increasing between the two players?
DPS: I don’t see how either Baghdad or the KRG would benefit from a violent confrontation, but both Prime Minister Maliki and President Barzani benefit from heightened tensions. I expect them to keep it below the level of violence, but of course accidents happen.
– al-Maliki’s power is growing further as it may expected win more votes in the next elections; how do you see the future of politics in Iraq, as al-Maliki’s remaining in power is becoming more likely?
DPS: The important thing for me is that the elections be verifiably free and fair, including the campaign period. Maliki is within his rights to run again, even if he once suggested that he would not. No doubt the incumbent in Iraq has enormous advantages, and Maliki has increased his support, especially among Shia and Sunni voters. He doesn’t really compete for Kurdish votes. If someone wants to beat him in the next election, they had better get busy fast putting together a strong coalition.
– The tension between Baghdad and Erbil over the places that called disputed areas especially Kirkuk is going further toward a militaristic one; do you see a solution in the near future for this complicated issue?
DPS: Iraqis know very well how to divide a pie. There is more than enough land, oil and revenue to go around. It would be a serious mistake to allow the division of the spoils to be decided by military action. Negotiation is what is needed.
– Erbil’s relations with Turkey growing; do you think Turkey will back the Kurdistan Regional Government in any expected conflict with Baghdad?
DPS: No, I don’t. Turkey, while increasingly friendly with Erbil and delighted with the economic and political cooperation, does not want to see an independent Kurdistan.
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