Peace picks, October 7-11
A wide array of interesting events this week (be aware of possible event cancellations due to the government shutdown):
1. A New Look at American Foreign Policy: The Third in a Series of Discussions
Monday October 7 | 12:00pm – 1:00pm
The Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NW
For decades, libertarians and conservatives have been at odds over American foreign policy. But perhaps a conversation is possible today between classical liberals and conservatives on the nature of American foreign policy. Some are trying to find a “middle way” that is less doctrinaire. At the same time the “neo” conservative phase of hyper military interventionism is a spent force in conservative circles. Therefore, the time may be ripe for an open and honest conversation among some libertarians and conservatives about the future of American foreign policy. It may be possible a new consensus could be found between Americans who consider themselves classical liberals and traditional conservatives on the purposes of American foreign policy.
Join us as Heritage continues the discussion regarding this question, what the dangers and opportunities are and whether they afford an opportunity to take a “new look” at American foreign policy.
For decades, libertarians and conservatives have been at odds over American foreign policy. But perhaps a conversation is possible today between classical liberals and conservatives on the nature of American foreign policy. Some are trying to find a “middle way” that is less doctrinaire. At the same time the “neo” conservative phase of hyper military interventionism is a spent force in conservative circles. Therefore, the time may be ripe for an open and honest conversation among some libertarians and conservatives about the future of American foreign policy. It may be possible a new consensus could be found between Americans who consider themselves classical liberals and traditional conservatives on the purposes of American foreign policy.
Join us as Heritage continues the discussion regarding this question, what the dangers and opportunities are and whether they afford an opportunity to take a “new look” at American foreign policy.
More About the Speakers
Kim R. Holmes, Ph.D.
Distinguished Fellow, The Heritage Foundation
Randy E. Barnett
Carmack Waterhouse Professor of Legal Theory, Georgetown University Law Center
Marion Smith
Visiting Fellow, B. Kenneth Simon Center for Principles and Politics, The Heritage Foundation
Hosted By
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Professor of Government and Politics, George Mason University, and former Title VIII-Supported Research and Short-Term Scholar, Kennan Institute
Monday, October 7 | 12:30pm – 2:00pm
Georgetown University, 37th Street NW and O Street NW
A lunchtime discussion on the plight of Palestinian refugees displaced from Syria, featuring insights from Samar El Yassir and Noura Erakat.
The fighting in Syria has sent millions of people seeking refuge across the borders, although some have faced more difficulty than others in fleeing from harm across borders. At present, there are more than 90,000 Palestinians sheltering in the already overcrowded, dismal refugee camps in Lebanon. They are among the most vulnerable of refugees from Syria, largely neglected by major international relief efforts and protection mandates.
Samar El Yassir, ANERA’s Lebanon Country Director has previously managed programs for UNRWA and Impact. She is a graduate of the American University of Beirut and has a post-graduate diploma from the University of London’s Institute of Child health. Samar will talk about conditions in the camps and what is being done to ease the burden for both the refugees and families who have opened their doors to them. For more than 45 years, ANERA has provided humanitarian and development assistance to Palestinian communities in Lebanon, West Bank, Gaza and Jordan.
Noura Erakat is a renowned human rights attorney, activist and legal scholar currently completing researching on behalf of Palestinian refugees displaced from Syria. Noura is an Abraham L Freedman Teaching Fellow at Temple University’s Beasley School of Law, a member of the Legal Support Network for the Badil Resource Center for Palestinian Refugee and Residency Rights and a Co-Editor of Jadaliyya. Since 2009, she has taught International Human Rights Law in the Middle East at Georgetown University as part of its adjunct faculty. Noura will discuss the overlapping refugee legal regimes in the Middle East that expose Palestinian refugees to acute vulnerability during secondary forced displacement as is currently occurring as a result of the Syria crisis.
4. Domestic Barriers to Dismantling the Militant Infrastructure in Pakistan
Monday, October 7 | 2:00pm – 3:30pm
United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW
Please join USIP on Monday October 7 for a discussion on the nature of Islamist militancy, and to examine the barriers to dismantling the militant infrastructure in Pakistan.
NOTE: In the absence of federal appropriations, the U.S. Institute of Peace is temporarily closed. Please monitor the news media and check back here frequently to determine whether this event is postponed.
Pakistan’s inability to tackle Islamist militancy within its borders and to prevent cross-border attacks from its soil remains a constant worry for the world. While the Pakistani state pledges lack of capacity to deal with the various facets of the militant challenge, the world is unconvinced of the ‘will’ of the Pakistani leadership to fight with determination. The Pakistani security establishment has been seen as selectively targeting certain Islamist outfits while ignoring, supporting, or abetting others.\
Despite constant debate on the issue, there have been few attempts to holistically examine the factors that impede Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts. Pakistan and its foreign allies tend to talk past each other. Stephen Tankel’s report, Domestic Barriers to Dismantling the Militant Infrastructure in Pakistan, published by the USIP Pakistan program, seeks to address this void by holistically examining the constraints and policy choices that dictate Pakistan’s outlook towards Islamist militants operating from on its soil.
Please join USIP for a panel discussion on Monday October 7 that marks the launch of this monograph.
- Opening Remarks by Andrew Wilder, Vice President, South and Central Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
- Panelists:
- Thomas Lynch, Distinguished Research Fellow
Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University - Daniel Markey, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia
Council on Foreign Relations - Stephen Tankel, Assistant Professor
Department of Law, Justice, and Society, American University
- Thomas Lynch, Distinguished Research Fellow
- Moderated by Moeed Yusuf, South Asia Advisor, South and Central Asia, U.S Institute of Peace
Tuesday, October 8 | 10:30am – 12:00pm
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW
The complex interplay of domestic politics and regional diplomacy involving the Korean Peninsula creates a high-stakes “Two-Level Game” that has stymied Japan-South Korea relations and stalled progress on North Korean denuclearization, with adverse consequences for Japan and the U.S.-Japan alliance. Efforts to improve the situation will benefit from intellectual exchange regarding the inherent tension among certain domestic political, national security, and regional diplomatic factors.
Bonji Ohara, research fellow at the Tokyo Foundation and retired Maritime Self-Defense Force captain, will provide his analysis of these diplomatic and security dynamics involving Korea from Japan’s viewpoint and based on his personal experience in China and Korea. James L. Schoff will moderate.
BONJI OHARA
Bonji Ohara is a research fellow and project manager at the Tokyo Foundation where he focuses on foreign and security policy. He previously served as an analyst for IHS Jane’s and served as Japan’s naval attaché in Beijing.
JAMES L. SCHOFF
James L. Schoff is a senior associate in the Carnegie Asia Program. His research focuses on U.S.-Japanese relations and regional engagement, Japanese politics and security, and the private sector’s role in Japanese policymaking.
6. Tunisia: Divided and Dissatisfied with Ennahda
Tuesday, October 8 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm
Hosted by the Middle East Institute at the Human Rights Campaign, 1640 Rhode Island Avenue NW
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to welcome James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute and founder of Zogby Research Services (ZRS), William Lawrence,Professorial Lecturer in Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University’s Elliot School of International Affairs, and Radwan Masmoudi, Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy, for a discussion about the findings of a recent poll on Tunisian attitudes toward their country’s political actors and institutions, moderated by MEI Vice President Paul Salem.
Zogby Research Services recently surveyed 3,031 Tunisian adults to determine their attitudes toward Tunisia’s political parties and leaders and their views of Tunisia’s future. The nationwide survey of Tunisian public opinion reveals a deeply disappointed, distressed, and divided electorate, with the governing Islamist Ennahda party as isolated in Tunisia today as Egypt’s Freedom and Justice Party was this past spring when ZRS polled Egyptian attitudes.
Zogby will elaborate on the poll’s findings, comparing the divisions in Tunisia to those in Egypt just prior to the June 30th demonstrations that led to the ouster of President Mohamed Morsi. The presentation will be followed by a discussion about the implication of the poll’s findings for Tunisia’s political trajectory, particularly in light of the Ennahda government’s recent decision to step down and allow the opposition to form a caretaker government.
**A light lunch will be served at this event.**
Biographies:
Dr. James J. Zogby is the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and policy research arm of the Arab American community. He is also managing director of Zogby Research Services, which specializes in groundbreaking public opinion polling across the Arab world. Zogby is a lecturer and scholar in Middle Eastern affairs and a visiting professor of Social Research and Public Polling at New York University in Abu Dhabi. A lecturer and scholar on Middle East issues, U.S.-Arab relations, and the history of the Arab American community, Dr. Zogby appears frequently on television and radio. Zogby is the author of Arab Voices (Palgrave Macmillan, October 2010), among other books and publications. Dr. Zogby has testified before U.S. House and Senate committees and has addressed the United Nations and other international forums. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Dr. William Lawrence is a visiting professor in political science and international affairs at George Washington University’s Elliott School and an adjunct scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He lived in North Africa for twelve years-including two in Tunisia-and worked across North Africa for twenty-eight years. For the past two years, he was the director of the North Africa Project at the International Crisis Group (ICG), where he supervised analysis and engaged in high-level advocacy. Prior to joining ICG, he served in a number of positions at the U.S. State Department including as a senior adviser for global engagement in the Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (OES), where he advised the White House on core initiatives associated with President Obama’s Cairo speech. He also served at the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli and in Washington as the officer in charge of Libyan and Tunisian affairs. Dr. Lawrence has appeared on BBC (radio and television), NPR, VOA, Al Jazeera, France 24, Voice of Russia, and The National (Australia); has been quoted in The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Financial Times, The Christian Science Monitor, the Guardian and Le Monde; and has published op-eds in Foreign Policy, World Politics Review, Jeune Afrique, Slate Afrique, Le Figaro, Rue 89, Al-Hayat, and Sharq al-Awsat.
Dr. Radwan A. Masmoudi is the founder and president of the Center of the Study of Islam & Democracy (CSID), a Washington-based non-profit think tank dedicated to promoting dialogue about democracy in the Muslim world. He is also the editor of the Center’s quarterly publication, Muslim Democrat. He has written and published several articles and papers on the topics of democracy, diversity, human rights, and tolerance in Islam. He was founding president of the Tunisian Scientific Society (TSS), and of the Network of Democrats in the Arab World (NDAW), a member of the board of the American Council for the Study of Islamic Societies (ACSIS) and the International Forum for Islamic Dialogue (IFID). In April 2012, he was elected as a member of the Steering Committee of the World Movement for Democracy. Radwan appears regularly on radio and TV shows, including Voice of America, FoxNews, CNN, CBS, CNBC, NPR, Al-Jazeera, Algerian TV, al-Mustakillah TV, Press TV, Tunisia TV, etc. Since February 2011, two weeks after the beginning of the Arab Awakening, Dr. Masmoudi has spent most of his time in Tunisia, establishing CSID-Tunisia as one of the leading civil society organizations in post-revolutionary Tunisia. He has helped to organize and participate in hundreds of meetings and debates between Tunisian politicians, scholars, and leaders on how to move forward with the democratic transition in Tunisia.
Dr. Paul Salem is a vice president of the Middle East Institute leading an initiative on Arab transitions. Prior to joining MEI, Salem was the founding Director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, Lebanon between 2006 and 2013, where he built a regional think tank distinguished by the quality of its policy research and high regional profile. From 1999 to 2006, he was director of the Fares Foundation and in 1989 founded and directed the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, Lebanon’s leading public policy think tank. In 2002, Salem served on the senior review committee for the United Nations Development Program’s Arab Human Development Report. Salem writes regularly in the Arab and Western press and has been published in numerous journals and newspapers, including The New York Times, Foreign Affairs, the National Interest, and the Financial Times. Salem is the author of a number of books and reports on the Middle East, including Broken Orders: The Causes and Consequences of the Arab Uprisings (in Arabic, 2013); “Iraq’s Tangled Foreign Relations” (2013), “Libya’s Troubled Transition” (2012), “Can Lebanon Survive the Syrian Crisis?” (2012); and “The Arab State: Assisting or Obstructing Development” (2010).
7. The Rise of Radical Islam in the South Caucasus: The Threat and the Reponse
Thursday, October 10 | 9:30am – 2:00pm
Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street NW, 6th Floor
This event will be streamed live here: www.hudson.org/watchlive
Breakfast and Lunch will be served
The conference topic is especially timely as the U.S. continues its withdrawal from Afghanistan, instability mounts in North Africa and the Middle East, and Tehran continues to reject international calls for a halt to its enrichment activities. This turmoil also underscores the importance of strong and stable American allies in a region, the South Caucasus, of increasing importance to U.S. interests.
While Iran is using home-grown Shia Islamists to undermine the secular nature of Azerbaijan, the growing influence of Salafi groups in the North Caucasus is now spilling into neighboring countries. At the same time, poorly designed and inadequately executed responses by various governments have contributed to this increase in extremism.
Given this situation, how can South Caucasian governments and the international community prevent the spread of radicalism and promote traditions of tolerant Islam that allow co-existence and cooperation among Christians, Jews, and Sunni and Shia Muslims? What is the U.S. security strategy and vision for the Caucasus region? What is Iran’s strategy in the South Caucasus and to what extent should the region shape U.S.-Iran relations?
To explore these challenges—and potential solutions to promote enduring regional security—Joshua Walker, Director of Global Programs, APCO Worldwide, will deliver opening remarks, and two panels of distinguished experts will follow: one moderated by Hudson Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis Richard Weitz, and a second moderated by Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy at the Heritage Foundation.
Please join us for what will be an insightful and much-needed discussion.
CONFERENCE AGENDA
Thursday, October 10
9:00-9:30am: Registration and Breakfast
9:30am: Introductions
Kenneth R. Weinstein, President and CEO, Hudson Institute
Gal Luft, Director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security
9:40-10:00am: Opening Remarks
Joshua Walker, Director of Global Programs, APCO Worldwide
10:00-11:15am: Panel One: “The Threat of the Rise of Radical Islam in the South Caucasus”
Moderator: Richard Weitz, Hudson Institute
Brenda Shaeffer, Visiting Researcher, Center for Eurasian, Russian and Eastern European Studies (CERES), Georgetown University
Alex Vatanka, Middle East Institute
Alexandros Petersen, Advisor to the European Energy Security Initiative (EESI), Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Svante Cornell, Research Director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program
11:30am-12:30pm: Panel Two: “Domestic and International Response to the Spread of Extremism and Radicalism in the South Caucasus”
Moderator: Ariel Cohen, Heritage Foundation
Michael Rubin, Resident Scholar, AEI
Temuri Yakobashvili, Senior Transatlantic Fellow, GMF
Ilan Berman, Vice President, American Foreign Policy Council
*Lunch*
12:45-2:00pm: Luncheon Keynote
Introduction: Ariel Cohen, Senior Fellow, Heritage Foundation
Speaker: Former Congressman Dan Burton
2:30pm: Concluding Comments
Ariel Cohen, Heritage Foundation
Richard Weitz, Hudson Institute
8. Israel’s National Challenges, At Home and Abroad
Thursday, October 10 | 12:00pm – 2:00pm
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050
After a meteoric political rise and six months in one of the toughest jobs in Israeli public life, Yair Lapid is making his inaugural visit to Washington at a moment when the U.S.-Israeli relationship faces a range of critical tests, from nuclear diplomacy with Iran to peace diplomacy with the Palestinians. In his first address to a Washington policy audience, the finance minister and rising political star will offer his views on Israel’s domestic and foreign challenges during a Washington Institute Policy Forum luncheon.
Yair Lapid is minister of finance and head of the Yesh Atid party in the Israeli government. Previously, he led a long career in journalism, writing weekly columns for Maariv and Yediot Aharonot newspapers and hosting various news programs and popular talk shows on Israeli television.
9. ‘Why Moroccan Protests Failed’ — A Panel Discussion
Thursday, October 10 | 1:00pm – 3:00pm
Elliot School of International Affairs, Lindner Family Commons, 1957 E Street NW
Dr. Adria Lawrence, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Yale University
Ahmed Benchemsi, Visiting Scholar, Program on Arab Reform and Democracy, Stanford University
Aboubakr Jamai, Founder and Former Editor, Le Journal Hebdomadaire
Moderated by
Dr. Marc Lynch, Director, Institute for Middle East Studies, George Washington University
The panel will discuss the Arab Uprisings and Moroccan protest movement.
*A light lunch will be served.
Sponsored by the Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS), Institute for Middle East Studies (IMES)
10. Assessing Warsaw Pact Military Forces: The Role of CIA Clandestine Reporting
Thursday, October 10 | 3:00pm – 5:00pm
Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
“CIA Analysis of Warsaw Pact Military Forces: The Importance of Clandestine Reporting” examines the role of intelligence derived from clandestine human sources in the Central Intelligence Agency’s analyses of Warsaw Pact military capabilities for war in Europe from 1955 to 1985. The intelligence was provided to US policymakers and military planners and used to assess the political and military balance in Central Europe between the Warsaw Pact and NATO during the Cold War. The speakers, who were analysts of Soviet military affairs during much of the period, were selected by the CIA to mine its archives for relevant material, previously highly classified, and to provide the documents in coherent form for their study and for public release. The release features a large collection of internal Warsaw Pact classified documents obtained clandestinely during the period and translated and disseminated to senior policymakers by CIA.
Joan Bird will provide a brief overview of the released CIA documents, while John Bird will engage in an in-depth review of the substance of CIA analyses of Warsaw Pact Forces.
Mark Kramer, director of the Cold War Studies Program at Harvard University, and Barry Watts, Adjunct Professor, Center for Security Studies, Georgetown University, and a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, will join the panel as commentators. A. Ross Johnson, Senior Scholar at the Wilson Center, will chair the event.
This meeting is a sequel to an April 5, 2011, Wilson Center event, “Warsaw Pact: Wartime Statutes—Instruments of Soviet Control,” which focused on the mechanisms of Soviet control over its Warsaw Pact allies, based on an earlier CIA release of Warsaw Pact documents also obtained clandestinely.
A. Ross Johnson is senior scholar at the Wilson Center and visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was director of Radio Free Europe from 1988 to 1991 and a senior executive of RFE/RL until 2002. From 1969 to 1988 he was a senior staff member of the RAND Corporation. His publications on the Warsaw Pact includeEast European Military Establishments: The Warsaw Pact Northern Tier, Crane Russak & Co., 1982 (co-authored); East European Military Reliability; An Émigré-Based Assessment, The RAND Corporation, R-3480, October 1986 (co-authored); and East European Armed Forces and Soviet Military Planning; Factors of Change, RAND Corporation, N-2856-AF, 1989. He is a graduate of Stanford University, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, and Columbia University.
Joan Bird, one of the co-authors of this study, had a 29 year career at CIA as a senior analyst of Soviet issues, including Soviet space activities, Soviet policies on potential space weapons, and arms control of space and defense issues. She spent three years as the senior intelligence representative on the Defense and Space negotiating team and a year supporting the US delegation to the UN Conference on Disarmament on arms control for space. In addition she was assigned to the Center for Naval Warfare Studies at the Naval War College developing ways to incorporate intelligence, space, communications and information operations in their studies and war games.Since retirement she has worked for the US Army and Navy in developing the information and space issues as examined in their war games. She is a co-author of several historical studies for the Historical Collections Division of CIA
John Bird, one of the co-authors of this study, had a 32 year career as an analyst of Soviet Military issues at CIA. Among his many assignments within the CIA, he served as Deputy National Intelligence Officer for General Purpose Forces, Director of the Strategic Warning Staff and later as the National Intelligence Officer for Warning. He was chief of the Intelligence Community’s monitoring authority for all US arms control treaties and agreements. He was also assigned to other US Government departments as his expertise was requested. Since retiring from government service he nevertheless continued as an adviser and consultant to the Naval War college, the US Army’s Training and Doctrine Command and other US military organizations. His latest efforts have been devoted to the release of significant CIA Cold War documents and the co-authoring of several historical studies for the Historical Collections Division of CIA.
Mark Kramer is director of the Cold War Studies Program at Harvard University and a senior fellow of Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. He is the editor of Journal of Cold war Studies. He has taught at Harvard, Yale, and Brown Universities and was formerly an Academy Scholar in Harvard’s Academy of International and Area Studies and a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford University
Barry Watts is Adjunct Professor, Center for Security Studies, Georgetown University, and a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments where he focuses on net assessment, airpower and the emergence of guided munitions, Air Force transformation, and the military use of space. From May 2001 – June 2002, he was the Director of Program Analysis and Evaluation in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Mr. Watts has also held the position of Director of Northrop Grumman Analysis Center at Northrop Grumman.
11. Supporting Fragile States: The Role of Inclusive Growth
Friday, October 11 | 1:00pm – 2:30pm
Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Inclusive growth is increasingly recognized as a powerful way to shore up peace and stability by raising the value of the peace dividend and by expanding the coalition of stakeholders who stand to lose from a backslide into conflict. Inclusive growth is also a key driver of poverty reduction. These ideas are ingrained in the “New Deal” – an innovative framework for supporting peace, stabilization and development in fragile and conflict-affected states driven by the g7+ group of fragile states with the support of international partners.
On October 11, the Development Assistance and Governance Initiative at Brookings will host a discussion on the politics and practicalities of harnessing new learning and ideas to realize inclusive growth in fragile and conflict affected states as well as the role international donors can play in this endeavor. Panelists will include: the co-chairs of the International Dialogue on Peacebuilding and Statebuilding— Christian Friis Bach, Denmark’s minister for development cooperation, and Emilia Pires, minister of finance for the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste; Amara Konneh, Liberia’s minister of finance; Sarah Cliffe, special adviser and assistant secretary-general of civilian capacities at the United Nations; Joel Hellman, director of the Global Center on Conflict, Security and Development at the World Bank; and Akihiko Tanaka, president of the Japan International Cooperation Agency. Brookings Senior Fellow Homi Kharas will moderate the discussion.
After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
EVENT AGENDA
- Moderator
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Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Global Economy and Development, Development Assistance and Governance Initiative
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- Panel 1: Politicians’ Perspectives
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Christian Friis Bach
Co-Chair of the International Dialogue on Peacebuilding and Statebuilding and Minister for Development Cooperation
Denmark
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Amara Konneh
Minister of Finance
Republic of Liberia
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Emilia Pires
Co-Chair of the International Dialogue on Peacebuilding and Statebuilding Minister of Finance
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste
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- Panel 2: Practitioners’ Perspectives
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Sarah Cliffe
Special Adviser and Assistant Secretary-General of Civilian Capacities
United Nations
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Joel Hellman
Director, Global Center on Conflict, Security and Development
World Bank
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Akihiko Tanaka
President
Japan International Cooperation Agency
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