Peace picks, December 9-13
D.C. is back in full-swing before the start of the holidays. Here are this week’s peace and conflict events:
1. Inaugural PeaceGame 2013 — Chart the Best Possible Peace for Syria
U.S. Institute of Peace
December 9 8:00am – December 10 12:30pm
Governments around the world regularly devote enormous resources to conducting “war games.” On December 9 and 10, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) and The FP Group (FP) will conduct the inaugural PeaceGame, with a focus on “the best possible peace for Syria.” With one game in the U.S. and another in the Middle East, the semi-annual PeaceGames will bring together the leading minds in national security policy, international affairs, academia, business, and media to “game” out how we can achieve peace in Syria. USIP and FP intend for the game to redefine how leaders think about conflict resolution and the possibility of peace.
Participants in this inaugural PeaceGame will begin with a discussion of potential scenarios for peace in Syria and the steps and conditions necessary to achieve it. Players then will assume roles representing different stakeholders in the Syrian war. They will explore four scenarios representing different phases of a peace process: Achieving a Near-Term Political Solution, Pacification, Transformation and Institutionalization, and Stabilization. In addition to formulating a prescriptive solution to the situation in Syria, the PeaceGame will illuminate the essentials of peace, what institutions and capabilities we need to achieve it, and how thinking seriously about peace might change how our national and international institutions approach their short and long-term missions.
PeaceGame Participants include: Peter Ackerman, Henri Barkey, Hans Binnendijk, Esther Brimmer, Daniel Brumberg, Ambassador Maura Connelly, PJ Crowley, Paula Dobriansky, Andrew Exum, Nelson Ford, Ambassador Edward “Skip” Gnehm, Karen House, Lise Howard, Steven Heydemann, Ambassador James Jeffrey, Murhaf Jouejati, Ambassador Ted Kattouf, Mark Katz, Steven Koltai, Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer, George Lopez, Kristin Lord, Colum Lynch, Firas Maksad, Robert Malley, Sharon Morris, Robert Mosbacher, Jr., Ambassador George Moose, Mouaz Moustafa, Manal Omar, Carina Perelli, Kenneth Pollack, Ambassador Mitchell Reiss, David Rothkopf, Paul Saunders, Mark Schneider, Jeremy Shapiro, Randa Slim, Julianne Smith, Andrew Tabler, Ambassador William B. Taylor, James Traub, Mona Yacoubian, Judith Yaphe, Casimir Yost.
All attendees at the PeaceGame will contribute to the conversation through live, interactive polling and through microphones set up throughout the room.
DAY 1: December 9th
8:00 am-8:45 am Arrival/Registration/Continental Breakfast
8:45 am-9:15 am Welcome and Brief Overview
- Jim Marshall, President, U.S. Institute of Peace
- David Rothkopf, CEO and Editor, The FP Group
- Ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba, United Arab Emirates
9:15am-10:30 am “Establishing a Baseline: What Would a Lasting Peace in Syria Look Like?”
- Steven Heydemann, Vice President of the Center for Applied Research on Conflict, U.S. Institute of Peace
10:30am-10:45 am BREAK
10:45 am -12:30 pm “Phase I: Achieving a Near-Term Political Solution”
12:30-1:30 pm Lunch Break
1:30 pm-3:15 pm “Phase II: Establishing the Peace”
3:15 pm-5:00 pm “Phase III: Challenges to Peace Emerge”
5:00 pm-5:15 pm Brief Wrap Up and Close for the Day
DAY 2: December 10
8:00 am-8:45 am Continental Breakfast
8:45 am-9:15 am Review of Day 1 and Goals for Day 2
9:15 am-11:00 am “Establishing a Sustainable Peace”
11:00 am- 11:15 am Break
11:15 am-12:30 pm Wrap Up and Conclusion
2. Transition at a Crossroads: Moving beyond the GCC Agreement in Yemen
December 9, 2013
12:30 p.m. EST
IFES, 1850 K Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006
This event is a webcast. To watch, visit our Webcast page at the time of the event.
In late 2011, Yemeni political leaders and stakeholders endorsed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Agreement, which laid out a two-year roadmap for resolving Yemen’s political paralysis. The agreement scripted a process with an inclusive National Dialogue, a new constitution, a constitutional referendum and national elections to move the country forward. Two years later – with the National Dialogue process yet to reach consensus on key challenges – it is likely the initial timeframe will expire without a referendum and without elections.
What challenges will these delays present to Yemeni and international stakeholders? How should Yemeni leaders and the international community reformulate a timeline that is more realistic and responsive to the reality on the ground? When should presidential elections, a constitutional referendum and parliamentary elections be held, and what technical challenges will stakeholders face?
Please join us for a panel discussion on these timely issues, the overall political environment in Yemen, the potential impact on the electoral process and the ongoing role of the international community.
Grant Kippen, Chief of Party in Yemen, IFES
Danya Greenfield, Acting Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
Nadwa Dawsari, Civil Society and Conflict Specialist
Lunch will be served.
3. The Korean Peninsula Trust-Building Process and ROK-US Relations
December 10, 2013 // 8:30am — 12:00pm // Wilson Center
The Ministry of Unification of the Republic of Korea, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, and the Wilson Center will host the next Korea Global Forum Workshop in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, December 10, 2013 at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Experts from Korea and the U.S. will gather to discuss President Park’s “Korean Peninsula Trust-Building Process” and what this means for ROK-US relations. In particular, the workshop will address the net assessment of and the challenges posed by North Korea.
The Korea Global Forum was established by the Ministry of Unification in 2010 with the mission to raise awareness and promote international discussion on the unification of the Korean Peninsula and pending issues for the region. The overarching theme of this year’s Forum is the Korean Peninsula Trust-Building Process and workshops have been held in various locations, including Tokyo, Beijing, Bangkok, Seoul, and Washington, D.C.
8:30-9:00 — Registration
9:00-9:15 — Opening Remarks
Dr. Michael Van Dusen
9:15-10:05 — Session I: “The Korean Peninsula Trust-Building Process”
Moderator: Choi Kang
Presenter: Lee Duk-Haeng
Discussant: Yoo Ho-Yeol, James Person
10:05-10:15 — Coffee Break
10:10-11:20 — Session II: “Net Assessment of North Korea”
Moderator: Bong Youngshik
Presenters: Joel Wit, Lee Duk-Haeng, Yoo Ho-Yeol
Discussants: Choi Kang, James Person
11:25-11:35 — Coffee Break
11:30-12:40 — Session III: “How to Deal with North Korea”
Moderator: Choi Kang
Presenters: Chun Chaesung, Scott Snyder
Discussants: Hwang Jaeho, Michael O’Hanlon
4. Making Sense of Nuclear Negotiations with Iran: A Good Deal or a Bad Deal?
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
2168 Rayburn House Office Building (Gold Room)
About the Briefing
Negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) have resulted in a first step agreement of a possible comprehensive deal on the Iranian nuclear program.
However, aspects of the deal have proved controversial, not only with U.S. allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, but with some members of the U.S. Congress as well.
Please join us as we hear from a panel of experts examining the negotiations, the potential for a deal that could effectively halt Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapons capability, and implications for U.S. national security.
Alireza Nader is a senior policy analyst with the RAND Corporation specializing in Iran’s political dynamics, elite decisionmaking, and Iranian foreign policy.
Daryl Kimball is executive director of the Arms Control Association and a recognized leader in the policy debate on weapons proliferation, nuclear arms control, and non-proliferation.
Paul Pillar is an adjunct senior fellow of the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University who spent nearly three decades in the U.S. intelligence community in a variety of analytical and managerial positions with a focus on the Near East, Persian Gulf, and South Asia.
How to Attend
5. Egypt’s New Constitution: Fulfilling the Revolution’s Goals?
December 11, 2013 – 12:00 pm
1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC
A discussion with
Associate Professor of Law, School of Law
Texas A&M University
Nathan J. Brown
Professor of Political Science and International Affairs
George Washington University
Amr El-Shobaki via Skype (invited)
Egyptian Constituent Assembly
Mirette F. Mabrouk
Deputy Director for Regional Programs, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Egypt’s appointed fifty-person Constituent Assembly finalized the draft constitution on Sunday and the document is expected to go before the Egyptian voters in the coming weeks for a popular referendum. One year ago, a previous Constituent Assembly released a highly contested draft constitution for public referendum. Overwhelmingly dominated by Islamists, that group is said to have ignored all other voices and many Egyptians derided the resulting constitution as unrepresentative. Islamists, among other interest groups, are notably absent from the current Constituent Assembly, with many refusing to accept the legitimacy of the new document.
Sections of the draft charter have raised concerns, among them controversial articles that allow civilians to be tried in military courts, the judiciary to oversee itself, and freedom of worship limited to followers of the Abrahamic religions only. Moreover, a last-minute amendment to the draft has opened the door to holding presidential elections before the parliamentary vote, which would deviate from the steps laid out in the July 8 transition roadmap. However, some Egyptians point to new articles as signs of progress, for example guaranteeing freedom of expression, strengthening due process, and banning torture. Buffeted by political tension and national polarization, will this latest draft constitution help stabilize Egypt or further polarize it? Is the document one that the revolution deserves or one that it will settle for?
Please join the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East for a discussion on Egypt’s new constitution with Sahar Aziz, Nathan Brown, and Amr El-Shobaki.
Please use the West Tower elevators when you arrive.
Prior to joining the Texas A&M faculty in 2011, Sahar Aziz was an adjunct professor at Georgetown University Law Center and served as a senior policy advisor for the Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties at the US Department of Homeland Security where she worked on law and policy at the intersection of national security and civil rights. Aziz’s scholarship focuses on the intersection of national security and civil rights law, particularly in the post-9/11 era. She also writes on rule of law and democracy in Egypt including gender rights, transparency laws, and election laws.
Nathan J. Brown, a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, is a distinguished scholar and author of six well-received books on Arab politics. Brown has special expertise on Islamist movements, Palestinian politics, and Arab law and constitutionalism. His current work focuses on Islamist movements and their role in politics in the Arab world.
Amr El-Shobaki is a member of the Constituent Assembly in Egypt and an analyst at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. His publications on Arab and Egyptian political systems, political Islamic movements, European political systems, and European Islam have appeared in numerous newspapers and journals, including al-Masry al-Youm, al-Hayat, al-Sharq al-Awsat, and Le Figaro France.
6. Conflict, Challenges, and Prospects in the Congo: A Diplomat’s Perspective
U.S. Institute of Peace
Wednesday, December 11, 2013 – 2:00pm-3pm
Ambassador Roger Meece shares his perspectives on the Democratic Republic of Congo’s recent history, current developments and what may lie ahead.
Parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have been in conflict for nearly two decades. During that time, an estimated 5 million people have been killed. Tens of thousands have been uprooted and driven from their homes. Thousands of women and girls have been brutally raped. Congo is an ongoing humanitarian tragedy, especially for women. Prolonged instability has resulted in serious cross-border conflicts and the establishment of one of the world’s largest and longest-running United Nations peacekeeping missions. The appointment of several high-level international envoys, the augmentation of the U.N. mandate, introduction of a special U.N. intervention force and the dismantling of the M-23 rebel group all suggest that the DRC may be at another pivotal point in its turbulent history.
Join USIP and Ambassador Roger Meece, the U.N. Special Representative to DRC until August 2013, who will share his perspectives on the Congo’s recent history, current developments and what may lie ahead.
Ambassador Meece is one of America’s most knowledgeable diplomats on the Congo. In addition to his 3- year posting as the head of the U.N. Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), Ambassador Meece has served in Kinshasa as the U.S. Ambassador to the DRC and earlier as the U.S. Deputy Chief of Mission. He has also served in Congo-Brazzaville and as Office Director for Central Africa at the State Department. Amb. Meece will deliver remarks and respond to audience questions.
- Ambassador Johnnie Carson, Opening Remarks and Moderator
Special Advisor to the President, U.S. Institute of Peace
- The Honorable Ambassador Roger Meece, Keynote Remarks
Former SRSG to the Democratic Republic of Congo
7. Critical Mass: Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East
December 12, 2013
2218 Rayburn House Office Building
While current U.S. policy seeks to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear capability, history shows that efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation are not always successful. Thus, prudence dictates that we also must explore the question: How would the stability in the Middle East be affected if Iran acquired a nuclear arsenal?
Please join us on December 12 at 10:00 a.m. for a bipartisan discussion of this important issue with Representatives Mac Thornberry (R-TX) and Jim Cooper (D-TN) in 2218 Rayburn House Office Building as CSBA releases its latest report, Critical Mass: Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East.
At the briefing, the report’s author Dr. Andrew Krepinevich will provide his assessment of key security issues that may emerge in the event Iran acquires a nuclear capability, to include: the dynamics of a bipolar regional nuclear competition between Israel and Iran; the prospects for (and potential consequences of) a Middle East proliferation “cascade” involving other states in the region; the potential for a “Nuclear Great Game;” and the overarching challenges associated with preserving crisis stability and avoiding regional nuclear conflict. Dr. Krepinevich will also address why Cold War deterrence models may not apply to the nuclear competition in the Middle East, and why missile defenses may prove both destabilizing and cost-ineffective in this environment.
The presentation will be followed by an extensive Q&A session with the audience.
CSBA Distinguished Fellow Ambassador Eric Edelman will moderate the discussion.
Space Limited. RSVP Required
8. Deterrence Stability And Escalation Control In South Asia
Friday December 13, 2013
1111 19th Street, NW, 12th Floor
On December 13, 2001, extremists trained in Pakistan attacked the Indian Parliament building, triggering a crisis that almost led to war. Twelve years later, the conditions that could lead to uncontrolled escalation not only remain in effect, but have also become worse. Advancing nuclear capabilities and evolving military doctrines have far outpaced diplomacy on the subcontinent. The Stimson Center is publishing a collection of essays, “Deterrence Stability and Escalation Control in South Asia,” edited by Michael Krepon and Julia Thompson, that clarify increased nuclear dangers and suggest ameliorative steps.
Robert Einhorn, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Dr. Mansoor Ahmed, Lecturer, Department of Defense and Strategic Studies,
Quaid-i-Azam University, Pakistan
Dr. Sitakanta Mishra, Research Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies
New Delhi, India
The book is the product of bi-monthly discussions at Stimson to explore key elements of deterrence stability on the subcontinent. To help us launch this book, Rose Gottemoeller, acting under secretary for arms control and international security, will deliver a luncheon keynote address; Robert Einhorn, assistant secretary for nonproliferation and the secretary of state’s special advisor for nonproliferation and arms control in Clinton and Obama administrations, will offer his takeaways of the Clinton administration’s efforts to encourage strategic restraint on the subcontinent, and two bloggers at Stimson’s “Generation Why” website, Mansoor Ahmed and Sitakanta Mishra, will discuss cooperative measures to support the India-Pakistan Agreement on Reducing Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons.
Stimson’s programming on nuclear-related issues in South Asia is made possible by grant support from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and the National Nuclear Security Administration.