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Election results count

Tarik Lazović, editor in chief of the Bosnian News Agency Patria, asked a few questions yesterday.  He published today.  Here are the Q and A in English.

Q: Would you like to comment on a statement of Bakir Izetbegović, chief of the Bosnian presidency, who said that US will intensify engagement in Bosnia and Herzegovina after the election. He said that this was confirmed to him in direct contact with US officials.

DPS: The Americans have made it known they are searching for a new approach to Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is reasonable that they would wait until after the election to implement whatever it is they decide. And of course the results of the election will have an impact on what is feasible.

Q:  What do you think about the impact of Serbian elections on Bosnia?

DPS: The Serbian election will strengthen the position of Aleksandar Vucic, who is likely to become prime minister. He and President Nikolic are no friends of Milorad Dodik, who backed the losing horse in Serbia’s last presidential election.

But there is nothing permanent about friendships in the Balkans. I expect Dodik to try to ingratiate himself with Vucic, who however needs to do everything he can to avoid slowing Serbia’s progress towards the EU. Telling Dodik to stop talking about independence for RS and to start cooperating with the government in Sarajevo so that it can take on the responsibility of negotiating and implementing the obligations of EU membership would be one way to facilitate Serbia’s own accession process.

Q:  What do you think about the demonstrations and plenums in Bosnia?

DPS: I think it perfectly reasonable for citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina to complain about corruption, nepotism, unemployment, social conditions and abuses of privilege by government officials. So long as the demonstrations are non-violent, they are likely to attract large crowds—because the grievances are real. But it is unclear how this popular discontent will be translated into political change. The nationalist political parties are trying hard to repress and hijack the discontent to promote their own agendas by warning of danger to their respective ethnic groups and offering protection from imaginary threats. The authorities are also trying to frighten people away from the streets by bringing terrorist charges against some of the more rowdy demonstrators.

Someone has to figure out how to translate discontent and manifestations of direct democracy into a program of reform that can win votes and legislate change. Bosnia may not be an idyllic democracy, but election results count [Bosnia’s next election is scheduled for October 5.]