Day: December 12, 2011
Governing well is the best revenge
I was asked to speak on a panel this afternoon (2-3 pm) about the evolution of democracy in the Balkans at the AID Democracy and Governance conference at George Washington University. Here are my instructions from the organizers, and the notes I plan to use, though I confess I often depart from them:
Balkans Democracy
GWU, 12 December 2011
Organizers’ instructions: We will be looking for your views on the common challenges and opportunities for democratization within your designated sub-region. What have been the obstacles or inhibitors of democratization? To what extent does the ‘neighborhood’ itself influence possibilities for political liberalization? What are realistic goals and/or scenarios for improvement on democracy and governance in the near to medium term? Are there region-specific approaches that should be considered? What might assistance efforts and democracy, human rights and governance programs do to address key challenges in this sub-region?
1. Looked at in a 20-year time frame, democracy in the Balkans has to be judged as a success.
2. In 1991, Slovenia and Croatia were at war, Bosnia was close, Serbia was a somewhat liberal autocracy, Montenegro and Kosovo were under Milosevic’s thumb, Macedonia was shaky, Albania was just emerging from a miserable dictatorship, Romania and Bulgaria were not much better off.
3. Let me count the ways things have improved: four of these countries are EU members or about to be, five are members of NATO (two more are qualified).
4. Two use the Euro, at least two others have their own currency pegged to the Euro.
5. Only Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia remain in a kind of uncertain transition phase, even if Albania, Romania and Bulgaria continue to have problems meeting European expectations.
6. How did this happen? The big obstacles to democracy disappeared: Tudjman succumbed to natural causes, Milosevic to an election, Ceausescu to execution, the Bulgarian communist regime to a series of see-saw elections.
7. The neighborhood was unquestionably a big influence: Slovenia set out with determination to become an EU member, European and American assistance to Montenegro had a big influence inside Serbia, international intervention worked somewhat well in Bosnia and Kosovo, the Christmas warning and UNPREDEP gave Macedonia the breathing space it needed, Italian assistance saved Albania more than once.
8. Above all: the prospect of membership in NATO and the EU, while sometimes too weak to overcome domestic political strife, has proven a magnet that never entirely stops working, even if it at times seems inadequate.
9. The remaining problems can be solved: Bosnia needs constitutional reform, Serbia needs to acknowledge the loss of Kosovo, Kosovo needs treat its Serbs and other minorities well and reintegrate the north in a cooperative effort with Belgrade.
10. There is no reason why all those who want to be NATO members should not be within five years.
11. For the EU, it will take longer: Montenegro in less than 5 years, Serbia and Albania in 5-10 years, Kosovo in 15 and Bosnia in 10 years from whenever it fixes its constitution.
12. The best assistance efforts can do now is to support civil society, in particular watchdog functions.
13. However long it takes, whatever the obstacles and disappointments, governing well is the best revenge.
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