Peace picks, November 4-8
Apologies for the late posting (DPS):
The upcoming week’s top events:
1. Responding to the Rebalance: ASEAN between China and the US
Monday, November 4 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm
East-West Center, Sixth Floor Conference Room, 1819 L Street NW
An Asia-Pacific Security Seminar featuring:
Mr. Julio Amador III
2013 Asia Studies Visiting Fellow, East-West Center in Washington
Foreign Affairs Research Specialist, Philippines’ Foreign Service Institute
Dr. Charmaine Misalucha (Discussant)
Assistant Professor, De La Salle University in Manila, Philippines
The rebalancing of the United States to Asia in an effort to stem China’s surge in regional leadership has placed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in a difficult position. While ASEAN recognizes China as one of its most important Dialogue Partners, the regional association’s members have always recognized that the US plays a special role in the Asia Pacific as the guarantor of security. Meanwhile, China and the US are set on a rivalry that, while not officially acknowledged, is apparent to observers in Southeast Asia. Within this context, how is ASEAN as a regional organization dealing with Chinese-American rivalry?
Mr. Julio Amador III will describe regional perspectives about the direction of ASEAN in the context of the US Rebalance. He will discuss the tensions in the South China Sea as the backdrop for the rivalry between China and the US, and ASEAN’s subsequent attempts at autonomy in settling the issue. He will also assess ASEAN’s internal dynamics and describe how member-states attempt to form a regional consensus while maintaining their national strategic interests. While China and the US contend for primacy in the region, ASEAN still has a role to play, but only if it is willing to move beyond the narrow strategic limits set by its member states.
This program will be off-the-record; thank you for your cooperation.
A light luncheon will be served.
Julio Amador III is an Asia Studies Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington and a Fulbright Scholar at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University. He is on leave as a Foreign Affairs Research Specialist at the Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies (CIRSS) of the Philippines’ Foreign Service Institute. He provides policy analysis and strategic advice on ASEAN issues, Southeast Asia security and international relations, and foreign policy to the Department of Foreign Affairs. Mr. Amador has held numerous fellowships in the United States, Europe, and Australia.
Dr. Charmaine Misalucha is currently a US-ASEAN Fulbright Fellow in the School of International Service of American University. She is also an Assistant Professor at De La Salle University in Manila, Philippines, specializing international relations, security studies, and the arms trade. She received her PhD in International Relations from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies of the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
2. Domestic Barriers to Dismantling the Militant Infrastructure in Pakistan
Monday, November 4 | 2:00pm – 3:30pm
United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW
Pakistan’s inability to tackle Islamist militancy within its borders and to prevent cross-border attacks from its soil remains a constant worry for the world. While the Pakistani state pledges lack of capacity to deal with the various facets of the militant challenge, the world is unconvinced of the ‘will’ of the Pakistani leadership to fight with determination. The Pakistani security establishment has been seen as selectively targeting certain Islamist outfits while ignoring, supporting, or abetting others.
Despite constant debate on the issue, there have been few attempts to holistically examine the factors that impede Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts. Pakistan and its foreign allies tend to talk past each other. Stephen Tankel’s report, Domestic Barriers to Dismantling the Militant Infrastructure in Pakistan, published by the USIP Pakistan program, seeks to address this void by holistically examining the constraints and policy choices that dictate Pakistan’s outlook towards Islamist militants operating from on its soil.
Please join USIP for a panel discussion on Monday November 4 that marks the launch of this monograph.
- Moderated by Andrew Wilder, Vice President, South and Central Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
- Panelists:
- Thomas Lynch, Distinguished Research Fellow
Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University - Daniel Markey, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia
Council on Foreign Relations - Stephen Tankel, Assistant Professor
Department of Law, Justice, and Society, American University
- Thomas Lynch, Distinguished Research Fellow
3. Global Security Forum 2013
Tuesday, November 5 | 8:00am – 5:00pm
CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW
REGISTRATION BY INVITATION ONLY
2013 AGENDA
Opening Session: 8:15-9:00 a.m.
Keynote Address
The Honorable Charles T. “Chuck” Hagel
United States Secretary of Defense
Morning Sessions: 9:30-10:45 a.m.
I. Can the United States Rebuild a National Security Consensus?
David Ignatius
Columnist, The Washington Post
Mitchell Reiss
President, Washington College and
Former Director of Policy Planning, Department of State
Julianne Smith
Former Deputy National Security Adviser to the Vice President
Moderator:
Kathleen H. Hicks
Senior Vice President, Henry A. Kissinger Chair,
and Director of the International Security Program, CSIS
II. Finding a Surveillance Consensus Post Snowden?
Darren Dick
Staff Director, U.S. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
David Grannis
Staff Director, U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
James A. Lewis
Director and Senior Fellow, Technology and Public Policy Program, CSIS
Chan Park
General Counsel, U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary
Moderator:
Ellen Nakashima
National Security Reporter, The Washington Post
III. Has The Budget Crisis Shattered The Cold War Consensus On Defense Budgets?
Steven Cortese
Former Staff Director, Senate Committee on Appropriations
Jim Dyer
Former Staff Director, House Committee on Appropriations
Charles J. Houy
Former Staff Director, Senate Committee on Appropriations
Moderator:
David J. Berteau
Senior Vice President and Director, National Security Program on Industry and Resources, CSIS
IV. U.S.-China Economic Relations V.2.0?
Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy
Distinguished Scholar, Wilson Center, and former U.S. Ambassador to China
Charles W. Freeman III
Vice President, Rock Creek Global Advisors LLC
Christopher K. Johnson
Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS
Scott Miller
Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business, CSIS
Moderator:
Matthew P. Goodman
William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS
Midday Plenary Session: 11:15 a.m.-12:45 p.m.
Geopolitical Implications of a Reconnecting Eurasia
Zbigniew Brzezinski
Former National Security Advisor; CSIS Counselor and Trustee
Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft (ret.)
Former National Security Advisor; CSIS Counselor and Trustee
Edward C. Chow
Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS
Christopher K. Johnson
Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS
Andrew C. Kuchins
Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS
Moderator:
John J. Hamre
CSIS President, CEO, and Pritzker Chair
Afternoon Sessions: 1:15 p.m.-2:30 p.m.
I. What Battlefield Lessons Have We Learned From Twelve Years of War?
Gen. James E. Cartwright (ret.)
Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies, CSIS,
and former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Gen. Ronald R. Fogleman (ret.)
Former Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force
Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli (ret.)
Former Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army
Moderator:
Maren Leed
Senior Adviser, Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies
and Ground Forces Dialogue, CSIS
II. Can a U.S.-Iran Deal Work?
Robert Einhorn
Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, and former Special Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, U.S. Department of State
Haleh Esfandiari
Director, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Al Hunt
Host, Political Capital with Al Hunt, Bloomberg Television,
and Columnist, Bloomberg View
Moderator:
Jon B. Alterman
Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy,
and Director, CSIS Middle East Program
III. New Energy, New Geopolitics?
Ivan Sandrea
Senior Partner, Ernst and Young London
Peter Tertzakian
Chief Energy Economist & Managing Director, ARC Financial Corp
J. Robinson West
Senior Advisor, IHS-Energy Insight and Senior Adviser,
Energy and National Security Program, CSIS
Moderators:
Sarah O. Ladislaw
Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS
David Pumphrey
Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS
IV. What Role Should Financial Power Play in National Security?
Ambassador Robert Kimmitt
Former Deputy Secretary of the Treasury and Ambassador to Germany
Daniel Glaser
Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes
David F. Gordon
Head of Research, Eurasia Group,
and former Director of Policy Planning, Department of State
Moderator:
Juan Zarate
Senior Adviser, Transnational Threats Project and Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program, CSIS
Closing Plenary Session: 3:00-5:00 p.m.
A Simulated Crisis in East Asia
Richard L. Armitage
President, Armitage International, and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
James B. Steinberg
Dean, Maxwell School at Syracuse University,
and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
William J. Lynn III
CEO of Finmeccanica North America and DRS Technologies,
and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense
John E. McLaughlin
Former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
and former Acting Director of Central Intelligence
ADM Patrick M. Walsh (ret.)
Former Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet
Ambassador Kathleen Stephens
Koret Fellow, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University, and former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Korea
Jim Shinn
CEO, Teneo Intelligence; Lecturer, Princeton University,
and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asia
Moderators:
Michael J. Green
Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, CSIS
Christopher K. Johnson
Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS
4. Lessons Learned? The US Withdrawal from Iraq and What It May Mean for Afghanistan
Tuesday, November 5 | 12:00pm – 1:20pm
Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, 6th Floor
This event will look at a newly released RAND study titled Ending the U.S. War in Iraq: The Final Transition, Operational Maneuver, and Disestablishment of the United States Forces–Iraq, which explores how our experience in the military exit and transition of responsibilities in Iraq might help to inform future U.S. transition planning in Afghanistan.
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Vice President, International, RAND Corporation
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Commanding General, Joint Force Headquarters-National Capital Region, the U.S. Army Military District of Washington
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Executive Vice President and COO, Woodrow Wilson CenterExpert on Middle Eastern political-military affairs, with particular emphasis on Iraq, Iran, Saudi ArabiaFormer Public Policy ScholarFeature Writer, BBC News
5. The Socio-Economic Consequences of Armed Conflict in Syria
Wednesday, November 6 | 9:30am – 10:30am
New America Foundation, 1889 L Street NW, Suite 400
PARTICIPANTS
Alex Pollock
Director, Microfinance and Microcredit Department
United Nations Relief and Works AgencyModerator:
Leila Hilal
Director, Middle East Task Force
New America Foundation
6. How Washington Should Manage U.S.-China-Russia Relations
Wednesday, November 6 | 12:00pm – 1:00pm
Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE
Since the end of the Cold War, Sino-Russian relations have expanded and deepened, resulting in arms deals and increasing economic ties. Russia has the potential to become a major energy supplier to the growing Chinese economy, which is demanding ever-increasing amounts of energy. While both countries desire to constrain U.S. power and Western influence, they still view each other as regional competitors in Central Asia. If a close Sino-Russian strategic relationship develops, it could limit the capacity of the United States to act abroad and undermine economic freedom, democracy, and human rights in Greater Eurasia.
However, while Chinese-Russian cooperation is continuing and even expanding, the two nations are linked more by shared aversions than by shared interests. While Moscow and Beijing agree on the need to counter American power and have complementary economies, they are also geopolitical competitors.
Join us for a discussion of Chinese-Russian relations, the U.S. interests at stake, and recommendations for the United States’ response.
More About the Speakers
Stephen Blank Ph.D.
Senior Fellow, American Foreign Policy Council
Dean Cheng
Senior Research Fellow, Asian Studies Center, The Heritage Foundation
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
Senior Research Fellow, Russian and Eurasian Studies, The Heritage Foundation
Hosted By
Walter Lohman
Director, Asian Studies Center
7. The US-China-Iran Triangle
Wednesday, November 6 | 2:30pm – 4:00pm
American University, Ward 301, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Featured speaker: Hillary Leverett
Prof. Leverett brings 25 years of practical experience in U.S. foreign policy, area studies and conflict resolution to her courses. She served in U.S. embassies across the Middle East, at the United Nations, on the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, and on the National Security Council Staff. From 2001-2003, she was one of a handful of U.S. diplomats authorized to negotiate with Iranian officials over Afghanistan and al-Qaida. She has taught at Yale and is a visiting scholar at Peking University’s School of International Studies.
8. Rached Ghannouchi on Ending Tunisia’s Stalemate
Wednesday, November 6 | 3:00pm – 4:30pm
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW
After nearly three years of social polarization and political division—including the assassinations of two secular leaders earlier this year—Tunisia’s transition is at a crossroads. The Ennahda-led government and the secular opposition are in the midst of new high-stakes negotiations to end months of political deadlock. Success could mean the emergence of a new model of governance for the Arab world, while failure could accelerate the country’s political and socioeconomic decline.
Rached Ghannouchi, co-founder and president of Tunisia’s Ennahda Party, will give an address on the prospects for breaking the country’s political stalemate.
RACHED GHANNOUCHI
Rached Ghannouchi co-founded the Ennahda Movement, an Islamist group that is currently Tunisia’s largest political party and the dominant participant in a coalition that has governed the country since the October 2011 elections. After spending more than two decades in exile for his political activism, Ghannouchi returned to Tunisia in January 2011 to participate in the country’s democratic transition. Widely recognized as one of the world’s most influential Islamic thinkers, he was named one of TIME’s one hundred most influential people in the world in 2012.
9. Sea Power: Is the Sun Setting in the West or Rising in the East
Thursday, November 7 | 10:30am – 12:00pm
Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street NW, Sixth Floor
Refreshments will be provided.
Submit questions via Twitter: @HudsonInstitute
This event will be streamed live
on Hudson’s website: www.hudson.org/WatchLive.
The Royal Navy today is a shrinking shadow of its former self. Nineteen surface ships currently exist in the entire Royal Navy where more than three times that number made up the surface fleet during the Falklands War of 1982. The U.S. fleet has also experienced large decreases, although not on the same scale. Where the U.S. Navy had almost 600 ships in the mid-1980s, it is down to 284 today with the likelihood of additional large reductions in the future even if sequestration is lifted.
Admiral Christopher Parry, Royal Navy, (ret.) will look at what reductions in naval power on both sides of the Atlantic mean for the U.S. and the U.K., as well as for NATO and the West generally. He will examine what the simultaneous rise in Asian naval strength means for Western naval strategy, and more important, the West’s role as defender of the international order.
Admiral Parry will be joined in a discussion following his remarks by Admiral John Harvery, U.S. Navy, (ret.) andCommander Bryan McGrath, U.S. Navy, (ret.). Hudson Senior Fellow Seth Cropsey will moderate the morning event.
Admiral Parry’s remarks, and the discussion with U.S. naval officers that follows, is the inaugural event of Hudson’s new Center for American Sea Power. True to Hudson’s half-century old commitment to examining issues of emerging and future security, the Center will concentrate on the size, shape, and character of American sea power. Hudson Institute’s Center for American Sea Power will look at broad questions of U.S. and Western maritime strategy as national defense budgets decrease and challenges as diverse as Asia’s growing naval strength and asymmetric warfare at sea grow. As with the Center’s future conferences, papers, monographs, and journal articles, Admiral Parry’s presentation is based on the premise that great power status for a maritime nation is inseparable from robust naval forces.
10. China’s Economy in Transition
Thursday, November 7 | 12:00pm – 2:00pm
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Much has been made of China’s recent internal and external rebalancing. Though China’s current account surplus has shrunk significantly, the predicted shift toward consumption-fueled growth has not occurred. Instead, recent growth has relied on increasing investment, which leaves questions regarding the sustainability of the current model.
Papa N’Diaye, Malhar Nabar, and Anoop Singh will discuss the findings of the IMF’s new study on China’s rebalancing, and what it means for China’s future policy choices. Nicholas R. Lardy will offer comments, and Yukon Huang will moderate and offer comments.
ANOOP SINGH
Anoop Singh is director of the Asia and Pacific Deparment at the IMF.
MALHAR NABAR
Malhar Nabar is a senior economist in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, covering China and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
PAPA N’DIAYE
Papa N’Diaye is deputy division chief in the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.
NICHOLAS R. LARDY
Nicholas R. Lardy is the Anthony M. Solomon senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics where he researches Asia, China, and transition economies.
YUKON HUANG
Yukon Huang is a senior associate in the Carnegie Asia Program, where his research focuses on China’s economic development and its impact on Asia and the global economy.
11. Challenges of the Syrian Opposition
Thursday, November 7 | 5:30pm – 7:00pm
GW Elliott School of International Affairs, 2201 G Street NW, Funger Hall Room 103
As the Syrian uprising approaches its third anniversary, the conflict is far from resolved and has entrenched tensions at the local, regional and international levels. The crisis has grown increasingly intractable in the face of the political stalemate, continued violence, and the mass exodus of refugees to neighboring countries. At this juncture, what are the organizational problems of the Syrian opposition and how will these challenges shape the conflict moving forward? Join POMEPS for a critical analysis and discussion of the insurgency in Syria.
Panelists:
Steven Heydemann – United States Institute of Peace
Zachariah Mampilly – Vassar College
Wendy Pearlman – Northwestern University
Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl – University of Virginia
Moderated by:
Marc Lynch – George Washington University
For background information on the situation in Syria, please visit the updated POMEPS Arab Uprisings Bibliography.
– See more at: http://pomeps.org/event/challenges-of-the-syrian-opposition-2/#sthash.UZG1Qe3j.dpuf
12. Prospects for US-Taiwan Relations with Pu-Tsung King, Ambassador for the R.O.C.
Friday, November 8 | 5:30pm – 7:30pm
GW Elliott School of International Affairs, City View Room, 1957 E Street NW
Ambassador Pu-Tsung King, Taiwan (R.O.C.)
Michael E. Brown, Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, GW
Join the Sigur Center for Asian Studies for an evening with the Ambassador of the Republic of China (Taiwan ) to the United States, Pu-Tsung King. Elliott School Dean, Mike Brown will give introductory remarks. A reception will be held immediately following the ambassador’s remarks.
Remarks and a Q&A session will last from 5:30pm – 6:30pm. A reception will begin immediately after, at 6:30pm in the City View Room.
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