Peace picks, November 4-8

Apologies for the late posting (DPS):

The upcoming week’s top events:

1. Responding to the Rebalance: ASEAN between China and the US

Monday, November 4 | 12:00pm – 1:30pm

East-West Center, Sixth Floor Conference Room, 1819 L Street NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

An Asia-Pacific Security Seminar featuring:

Mr. Julio Amador III
2013 Asia Studies Visiting Fellow, East-West Center in Washington
Foreign Affairs Research Specialist, Philippines’ Foreign Service Institute

Dr. Charmaine Misalucha (Discussant)
Assistant Professor, De La Salle University in Manila, Philippines

The rebalancing of the United States to Asia in an effort to stem China’s surge in regional leadership has placed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in a difficult position. While ASEAN recognizes China as one of its most important Dialogue Partners, the regional association’s members have always recognized that the US plays a special role in the Asia Pacific as the guarantor of security. Meanwhile, China and the US are set on a rivalry that, while not officially acknowledged, is apparent to observers in Southeast Asia. Within this context, how is ASEAN as a regional organization dealing with Chinese-American rivalry?

Mr. Julio Amador III will describe regional perspectives about the direction of ASEAN in the context of the US Rebalance. He will discuss the tensions in the South China Sea as the backdrop for the rivalry between China and the US, and ASEAN’s subsequent attempts at autonomy in settling the issue. He will also assess ASEAN’s internal dynamics and describe how member-states attempt to form a regional consensus while maintaining their national strategic interests. While China and the US contend for primacy in the region, ASEAN still has a role to play, but only if it is willing to move beyond the narrow strategic limits set by its member states.

This program will be off-the-record; thank you for your cooperation.

A light luncheon will be served.

Julio Amador III is an Asia Studies Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington and a Fulbright Scholar at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University. He is on leave as a Foreign Affairs Research Specialist at the Center for International Relations and Strategic Studies (CIRSS) of the Philippines’ Foreign Service Institute. He provides policy analysis and strategic advice on ASEAN issues, Southeast Asia security and international relations, and foreign policy to the Department of Foreign Affairs. Mr. Amador has held numerous fellowships in the United States, Europe, and Australia.

Dr. Charmaine Misalucha is currently a US-ASEAN Fulbright Fellow in the School of International Service of American University. She is also an Assistant Professor at De La Salle University in Manila, Philippines, specializing international relations, security studies, and the arms trade. She received her PhD in International Relations from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies of the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

2. Domestic Barriers to Dismantling the Militant Infrastructure in Pakistan

Monday, November 4 | 2:00pm – 3:30pm

United States Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

Pakistan’s inability to tackle Islamist militancy within its borders and to prevent cross-border attacks from its soil remains a constant worry for the world. While the Pakistani state pledges lack of capacity to deal with the various facets of the militant challenge, the world is unconvinced of the ‘will’ of the Pakistani leadership to fight with determination. The Pakistani security establishment has been seen as selectively targeting certain Islamist outfits while ignoring, supporting, or abetting others.

Despite constant debate on the issue, there have been few attempts to holistically examine the factors that impede Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts. Pakistan and its foreign allies tend to talk past each other. Stephen Tankel’s report, Domestic Barriers to Dismantling the Militant Infrastructure in Pakistan, published by the USIP Pakistan program, seeks to address this void by holistically examining the constraints and policy choices that dictate Pakistan’s outlook towards Islamist militants operating from on its soil.

Please join USIP for a panel discussion on Monday November 4 that marks the launch of this monograph.

  • Moderated by Andrew Wilder, Vice President, South and Central Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Panelists:
    • Thomas Lynch, Distinguished Research Fellow
      Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University
    • Daniel Markey, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia
      Council on Foreign Relations
    • Stephen Tankel, Assistant Professor
      Department of Law, Justice, and Society, American University

3. Global Security Forum 2013

Tuesday, November 5 | 8:00am – 5:00pm

CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW

REGISTRATION BY INVITATION ONLY

2013 AGENDA

Opening Session: 8:15-9:00 a.m.

Keynote Address

The Honorable Charles T. “Chuck” Hagel
United States Secretary of Defense

Morning Sessions: 9:30-10:45 a.m.

I. Can the United States Rebuild a National Security Consensus? 

David Ignatius 
Columnist, The Washington Post

Mitchell Reiss
President, Washington College and 
Former Director of Policy Planning, Department of State

Julianne Smith 
Former Deputy National Security Adviser to the Vice President

Moderator: 
Kathleen H. Hicks

Senior Vice President, Henry A. Kissinger Chair, 
and Director of the International Security Program, CSIS

II. Finding a Surveillance Consensus Post Snowden?

Darren Dick
Staff Director, U.S. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

David Grannis
Staff Director, U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence

James A. Lewis 
Director and Senior Fellow, Technology and Public Policy Program, CSIS

Chan Park 
General Counsel, U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary

Moderator: 
Ellen Nakashima 
National Security Reporter, The Washington Post

III. Has The Budget Crisis Shattered The Cold War Consensus On Defense Budgets?

Steven Cortese 
Former Staff Director, Senate Committee on Appropriations

Jim Dyer 
Former Staff Director, House Committee on Appropriations

Charles J. Houy 
Former Staff Director, Senate Committee on Appropriations

Moderator: 
David J. Berteau 
Senior Vice President and Director, National Security Program on Industry and Resources, CSIS

IV. U.S.-China Economic Relations V.2.0?

Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy
Distinguished Scholar, Wilson Center, and former U.S. Ambassador to China

Charles W. Freeman III 
Vice President, Rock Creek Global Advisors LLC

Christopher K. Johnson
Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS

Scott Miller
Senior Adviser and Scholl Chair in International Business, CSIS

Moderator: 
Matthew P. Goodman
William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS

Midday Plenary Session: 11:15 a.m.-12:45 p.m.

Geopolitical Implications of a Reconnecting Eurasia 

Zbigniew Brzezinski
Former National Security Advisor; CSIS Counselor and Trustee

Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft (ret.)
Former National Security Advisor; CSIS Counselor and Trustee

Edward C. Chow
Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS

Christopher K. Johnson
Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS

Andrew C. Kuchins
Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS

Moderator: 
John J. Hamre
CSIS President, CEO, and Pritzker Chair

Afternoon Sessions: 1:15 p.m.-2:30 p.m.

I. What Battlefield Lessons Have We Learned From Twelve Years of War? 

Gen. James E. Cartwright (ret.)
Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies, CSIS, 
and former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Gen. Ronald R. Fogleman (ret.)
Former Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force

Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli (ret.)
Former Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army

Moderator: 
Maren Leed
Senior Adviser, Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies 
and Ground Forces Dialogue, CSIS

II. Can a U.S.-Iran Deal Work?

Robert Einhorn 
Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, and former Special Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, U.S. Department of State

Haleh Esfandiari
Director, Middle East Program, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Al Hunt
Host, Political Capital with Al Hunt, Bloomberg Television, 
and Columnist, Bloomberg View

Moderator: 
Jon B. Alterman
Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, 
and Director, CSIS Middle East Program

III. New Energy, New Geopolitics?

Ivan Sandrea
Senior Partner, Ernst and Young London

Peter Tertzakian
Chief Energy Economist & Managing Director, ARC Financial Corp

J. Robinson West
Senior Advisor, IHS-Energy Insight and Senior Adviser, 
Energy and National Security Program, CSIS

Moderators: 
Sarah O. Ladislaw
Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS

David Pumphrey
Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS

IV. What Role Should Financial Power Play in National Security?

Ambassador Robert Kimmitt
Former Deputy Secretary of the Treasury and Ambassador to Germany

Daniel Glaser
Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes

David F. Gordon 
Head of Research, Eurasia Group, 
and former Director of Policy Planning, Department of State

Moderator: 
Juan Zarate

Senior Adviser, Transnational Threats Project and Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program, CSIS

Closing Plenary Session: 3:00-5:00 p.m.

A Simulated Crisis in East Asia

Richard L. Armitage
President, Armitage International, and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State

James B. Steinberg
Dean, Maxwell School at Syracuse University, 
and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State

William J. Lynn III
CEO of Finmeccanica North America and DRS Technologies,
and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense

John E. McLaughlin
Former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
and former Acting Director of Central Intelligence

ADM Patrick M. Walsh (ret.)
Former Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet

Ambassador Kathleen Stephens
Koret Fellow, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University, and former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Korea

Jim Shinn
CEO, Teneo Intelligence; Lecturer, Princeton University,
and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asia

Moderators: 
Michael J. Green
Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, CSIS

Christopher K. Johnson
Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies, CSIS

4. Lessons Learned? The US Withdrawal from Iraq and What It May Mean for Afghanistan

Tuesday, November 5 | 12:00pm – 1:20pm

Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, 6th Floor

REGISTER TO ATTEND

Can the coming transition out of Afghanistan be informed by lessons from the U.S. military-diplomatic transition in Iraq?

This event will look at a newly released RAND study titled Ending the U.S. War in Iraq: The Final Transition, Operational Maneuver, and Disestablishment of the United States Forces–Iraq, which explores how our experience in the military exit and transition of responsibilities in Iraq might help to inform future U.S. transition planning in Afghanistan.

Event Speakers List:

5. The Socio-Economic Consequences of Armed Conflict in Syria

Wednesday, November 6 | 9:30am – 10:30am

New America Foundation, 1889 L Street NW, Suite 400

REGISTER TO ATTEND

The conflict in Syria has exacted a devastating humanitarian toll, destroying the socio-economic livelihoods of millions of Syrians. More than half of the Syrian population now lives in poverty, and nearly 4.4 million Syrians are living in “extreme poverty” without income or savings. The economy continues to contract while unemployment approaches 50 percent. Armed conflict has severely degraded national healthcare and education systems—almost 3,000 schools and hundreds of healthcare facilities have been damaged or destroyed in the fighting.On November 6, the New America Foundation’s Middle East Task Force will host Alex Pollock, director of the microfinance and microcredit department at UNRWA, for a discussion of the socio-economic conditions in Syria. The program will address the findings of a newly-released socio-economic monitoring report on Syria, and will debate the long-term implications of armed conflict and displacement on Syria’s economy and people, including the more than 500,000 Palestine refugees inside Syria.

PARTICIPANTS

Featured Speaker:
Alex Pollock
Director, Microfinance and Microcredit Department
United Nations Relief and Works AgencyModerator:
Leila Hilal
Director, Middle East Task Force
New America Foundation

6. How Washington Should Manage U.S.-China-Russia Relations

Wednesday, November 6 | 12:00pm – 1:00pm

Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE

REGISTER TO ATTEND

Since the end of the Cold War, Sino-Russian relations have expanded and deepened, resulting in arms deals and increasing economic ties. Russia has the potential to become a major energy supplier to the growing Chinese economy, which is demanding ever-increasing amounts of energy. While both countries desire to constrain U.S. power and Western influence, they still view each other as regional competitors in Central Asia. If a close Sino-Russian strategic relationship develops, it could limit the capacity of the United States to act abroad and undermine economic freedom, democracy, and human rights in Greater Eurasia.

However, while Chinese-Russian cooperation is continuing and even expanding, the two nations are linked more by shared aversions than by shared interests. While Moscow and Beijing agree on the need to counter American power and have complementary economies, they are also geopolitical competitors.

Join us for a discussion of Chinese-Russian relations, the U.S. interests at stake, and recommendations for the United States’ response.

More About the Speakers

Stephen Blank Ph.D.
Senior Fellow, American Foreign Policy Council

Dean Cheng
Senior Research Fellow, Asian Studies Center, The Heritage Foundation

Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.
Senior Research Fellow, Russian and Eurasian Studies, The Heritage Foundation

Hosted By

Walter Lohman

Director, Asian Studies Center

7. The US-China-Iran Triangle

Wednesday, November 6 | 2:30pm – 4:00pm

American University, Ward 301, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW

Featured speaker: Hillary Leverett

Prof. Leverett brings 25 years of practical experience in U.S. foreign policy, area studies and conflict resolution to her courses. She served in U.S. embassies across the Middle East, at the United Nations, on the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, and on the National Security Council Staff. From 2001-2003, she was one of a handful of U.S. diplomats authorized to negotiate with Iranian officials over Afghanistan and al-Qaida. She has taught at Yale and is a visiting scholar at Peking University’s School of International Studies.

8. Rached Ghannouchi on Ending Tunisia’s Stalemate

Wednesday, November 6 | 3:00pm – 4:30pm

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

After nearly three years of social polarization and political division—including the assassinations of two secular leaders earlier this year—Tunisia’s transition is at a crossroads. The Ennahda-led government and the secular opposition are in the midst of new high-stakes negotiations to end months of political deadlock. Success could mean the emergence of a new model of governance for the Arab world, while failure could accelerate the country’s political and socioeconomic decline.

Rached Ghannouchi, co-founder and president of Tunisia’s Ennahda Party, will give an address on the prospects for breaking the country’s political stalemate.

RACHED GHANNOUCHI

Rached Ghannouchi co-founded the Ennahda Movement, an Islamist group that is currently Tunisia’s largest political party and the dominant participant in a coalition that has governed the country since the October 2011 elections. After spending more than two decades in exile for his political activism, Ghannouchi returned to Tunisia in January 2011 to participate in the country’s democratic transition. Widely recognized as one of the world’s most influential Islamic thinkers, he was named one of TIME’s one hundred most influential people in the world in 2012.

9. Sea Power: Is the Sun Setting in the West or Rising in the East

Thursday, November 7 | 10:30am – 12:00pm

Hudson Institute, 1015 15th Street NW, Sixth Floor

REGISTER TO ATTEND

Refreshments will be provided.

Submit questions via Twitter: @HudsonInstitute 

 This event will be streamed live

on Hudson’s website: www.hudson.org/WatchLive.

The Royal Navy today is a shrinking shadow of its former self.  Nineteen surface ships currently exist in the entire Royal Navy where more than three times that number made up the surface fleet during the Falklands War of 1982.  The U.S. fleet has also experienced large decreases, although not on the same scale.  Where the U.S. Navy had almost 600 ships in the mid-1980s, it is down to 284 today with the likelihood of additional large reductions in the future even if sequestration is lifted.

Admiral Christopher Parry, Royal Navy, (ret.) will look at what reductions in naval power on both sides of the Atlantic mean for the U.S. and the U.K., as well as for NATO and the West generally.  He will examine what the simultaneous rise in Asian naval strength means for Western naval strategy, and more important, the West’s role as defender of the international order.

Admiral Parry will be joined in a discussion following his remarks by Admiral John Harvery, U.S. Navy, (ret.) andCommander Bryan McGrath, U.S. Navy, (ret.).  Hudson Senior Fellow Seth Cropsey will moderate the morning event.

Admiral Parry’s remarks, and the discussion with U.S. naval officers that follows, is the inaugural event of Hudson’s new Center for American Sea Power.  True to Hudson’s half-century old commitment to examining issues of emerging and future security, the Center will concentrate on the size, shape, and character of American sea power. Hudson Institute’s Center for American Sea Power will look at broad questions of U.S. and Western maritime strategy as national defense budgets decrease and challenges as diverse as Asia’s growing naval strength and asymmetric warfare at sea grow.  As with the Center’s future conferences, papers, monographs, and journal articles, Admiral Parry’s presentation is based on the premise that great power status for a maritime nation is inseparable from robust naval forces.

10. China’s Economy in Transition

Thursday, November 7 | 12:00pm – 2:00pm

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

Much has been made of China’s recent internal and external rebalancing. Though China’s current account surplus has shrunk significantly, the predicted shift toward consumption-fueled growth has not occurred. Instead, recent growth has relied on increasing investment, which leaves questions regarding the sustainability of the current model.

Papa N’Diaye, Malhar Nabar, and Anoop Singh will discuss the findings of the IMF’s new study on China’s rebalancing, and what it means for China’s future policy choices. Nicholas R. Lardy will offer comments, and Yukon Huang will moderate and offer comments.

ANOOP SINGH

Anoop Singh is director of the Asia and Pacific Deparment at the IMF.

MALHAR NABAR

Malhar Nabar is a senior economist in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, covering China and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

PAPA N’DIAYE

Papa N’Diaye is deputy division chief in the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.

NICHOLAS R. LARDY

Nicholas R. Lardy is the Anthony M. Solomon senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics where he researches Asia, China, and transition economies.

YUKON HUANG

Yukon Huang is a senior associate in the Carnegie Asia Program, where his research focuses on China’s economic development and its impact on Asia and the global economy.

11. Challenges of the Syrian Opposition

Thursday, November 7 | 5:30pm – 7:00pm

GW Elliott School of International Affairs, 2201 G Street NW, Funger Hall Room 103

REGISTER TO ATTEND

As the Syrian uprising approaches its third anniversary, the conflict is far from resolved and has entrenched tensions at the local, regional and international levels. The crisis has grown increasingly intractable in the face of the political stalemate, continued violence, and the mass exodus of refugees to neighboring countries. At this juncture, what are the organizational problems of the Syrian opposition and how will these challenges shape the conflict moving forward? Join POMEPS for a critical analysis and discussion of the insurgency in Syria.

Panelists: 

Steven Heydemann  – United States Institute of Peace

Zachariah Mampilly – Vassar College

Wendy Pearlman – Northwestern University

Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl – University of Virginia 

Moderated by: 

Marc Lynch – George Washington University 

For background information on the situation in Syria, please visit the updated POMEPS Arab Uprisings Bibliography.

– See more at: http://pomeps.org/event/challenges-of-the-syrian-opposition-2/#sthash.UZG1Qe3j.dpuf

12. Prospects for US-Taiwan Relations with Pu-Tsung King, Ambassador for the R.O.C.

Friday, November 8 | 5:30pm – 7:30pm

GW Elliott School of International Affairs, City View Room, 1957 E Street NW

REGISTER TO ATTEND

Ambassador Pu-Tsung King, Taiwan (R.O.C.)

Michael E. Brown, Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, GW

Join the Sigur Center for Asian Studies for an evening with the Ambassador of the Republic of China (Taiwan ) to the United States, Pu-Tsung King. Elliott School Dean, Mike Brown will give introductory remarks. A reception will be held immediately following the ambassador’s remarks.

Remarks and a Q&A session will last from 5:30pm – 6:30pm. A reception will begin immediately after, at 6:30pm in the City View Room.

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