Like the traffic jams they generate
You might not know it from the press coverage, but there are two high-profile visits to Washington this week: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives as Pope Francis leaves. The Pope may not have any divisions, but his focus on the poor, marginalized and disenfranchised is going to drive a lot of electrons this week. China’s cyber provocations, its building of runways on Pacific reefs and its still growing but shaky economy are not attracting nearly as much attention.
Bergoglio, as the Italians call the Pope, has managed to insinuate himself into domestic American politics in an elegantly ambivalent way. The right likes the Church’s stands on gay marriage and abortion, while the left thinks the Pope is liberalizing on both issues and applauds his loud denunciation of global warming and the consequences of the allegedly unfettered capitalism that has produced it. John Boehner summed it up eloquently: “he’s the Pope,” suggesting that it is useless to argue with such high authority. Best just to welcome him.
Xi is facing the opposite reaction. “He’s the Chinese president” evokes not welcome but distaste. He is the guy who steals our secrets, unfairly devalues his currency, and flashes his military might to bedazzle and cow America and its nervous allies in the Pacific. He may be cooperating for the moment on global warming and on the Iran nuclear program, but his stirring of Chinese nationalism at home and his mercantilist efforts to corner markets in mineral-producing countries are clear warnings of more trouble to come.
My view is that we have more to fear from China’s economic failure than from its success. With Chinese growth slipping below 7% this year–a level unachievable any developed country–the global economy is already sputtering. What will happen when China experiences a real recession? One of the few inevitabilities in our world is the business cycle. China is not immune. Nor is it destined to weather a downturn well. Its jury-rigged financial system is already trembling. Autocracy–witness Putin’s–will splash about for a life saver if it gets into trouble. Inflated enemies and overseas adventurism all too often lie close to hand.
Bergoglio is less vulnerable but unlikely to make a big or lasting impression. He is enunciating a timeless message that urges care for fellow human beings and for the earth on which we live. The problems he is pointing to do not arise from the business cycle but rather from the economic and social systems we have constructed. Some may think his critique unjustified and even dangerous, but they will keep quiet during the visit and get back to business as usual once he is gone.
These visits are like the traffic jams they generate. The impact is evanescent. They are a vague memory once we’ve gotten through them. For better or for worse, the systems we live in do not yield readily either to moral appeal or to the business cycle.
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