Peace Picks | November 4 – 8
A Civil Society Approach to Preventing Terrorism and Targeted Violence | November 4, 2019 | 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM | New America, 740 15th St NW #900 Washington, D.C. 20005 | Register Here
On
October 28 – the day after the anniversary of the Tree of Life tragedy –
Parallel Networks will launch Ctrl +Alt +Del-Hate, a counter polarization, hate
and far right-wing e-magazine that replicates the pilot counter-jihadi e-zine
project they launched in July.That jihadi version has since been embedded in Telegram as
the first public e-narrative effort on the platform in English. Rather than
utilizing it as a stand-alone piece, they use it to initiate discourse, force
the hubs to communicate in groups, and deconstruct their arguments to engage in
one-on-one intervention-oriented conversations.
On November 4, join New America and Parallel Networks as they discuss Parallel Networks’ new initiative, the
changing threat landscape, the future of terrorism prevention practices, and
the utilization of “ecosystem approaches” for interventions to best combat
extremism in all forms. The panel will also discuss the relationship between
far-right wing and jihadism.
Follow the conversation online using #CtrlAltDelHate and following @NewAmericaISP and @Parallel_Net.
Speakers:
Mitch Silber
Former Director of Intelligence Analysis at New York Police
Department
Jesse
Morton
Co-founder, Parallel Networks
Brad
Galloway
Research and Intervention Specialist, Organization for
Prevention of Violence
Jeff
Schoep
Former leader of the Neo-Nazi group, National Socialist
Movement
Moderator:
Melissa Salyk-Virk
Senior Policy Analyst, New America
Jihadism in Africa | November 5, 2019 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Brookings Institute, Saul Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington DC, 20036 | Register Here
Islamist-inspired radical groups in Africa have had an enduring presence on the continent despite decades of international efforts to contain and eliminate them. From the 1998 attacks against the U.S. embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, to more recent insurgencies aimed at destabilizing national governments, organizations like al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, Harakat al-Shabab, Boko Haram, and others have demonstrated remarkable staying power and show few signs of abating. However, the West has not paid sufficient attention to these groups and the potential they have to disrupt the continent’s development and export violence beyond.
On November 5, the Africa Security
Initiative at the Brookings Institution will host an event to discuss these
issues and their importance for contemporary discussions about security on the
African continent. The speakers will be Michael O’Hanlon, Senior Fellow at Foreign
Policy, and Stig Jarle Hansen, professor at the Norwegian University of Life
Sciences.
Building a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula | November 5, 2019 | 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The
U.S. and South Korean dialogues with the North raise the important issue of
what a long-term process of building a “peace regime” would look like and what
the implications might be for the U.S.-ROK alliance. Up for debate is the fate
of U.S. troops in South Korea and other security and diplomatic arrangements
that have come to be taken for granted over the past 70+ years. It is hard to
overstate the importance of these arrangements: They have underpinned the
political and economic development of South Korea into one of the freest and
most prosperous states in the world even while keeping that state in nuclear
and military peril from the North.
Please join us for a special forum with leading U.S. and
South Korean experts to discuss these issues and to understand where we are
with North Korea today and the outlook of the future.
1:00 – 1:05
PM WELCOMING REMARKS
Dr. Victor Cha, Senior Adviser and Korea Chair, CSIS; D.S. Song-KF
Professor of Government and Vice Dean, Georgetown University; Former National
Security Council
1:05 – 1:15
PM OPENING REMARKS
1:15 – 2:30
PM PANEL 1: The Peace
Regime and U.S.-ROK Alliance
Moderator:
Mr. Scott Snyder, Senior Fellow for Korea Studies and Director of the Program
on U.S.-Korea Policy, Council on Foreign Relations
Panelists:
Dr. Cho Seong-ryoul, Senior Adviser, Institute for National Security Strategy
Dr. Lee Sang-hyun, Senior Research Fellow, Sejong Institute
Mr. David Maxwell, Senior Fellow, The Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Dr. James Przystup, Senior Research Fellow, Center for Strategic Research,
National Defense University
2:30 – 2:45
PM COFFEE BREAK
2:45 – 4:00
PM PANEL 2: U.S.
and North Korea today and in the future
Moderator:
Dr. Sue Mi Terry, Senior
Fellow, CSIS Korea Chair; Former Senior Analyst, Central Intelligence Agency;
former Korea director, National Security Council
Panelists:
Amb. Mark Lippert, Senior
Advisor, CSIS Korea Chair; Vice President, Boeing International; Former U.S.
Ambassador to the Republic of Korea
Dr. Jung Pak, Senior Fellow and the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea
Studies, the Brookings Institution
Amb. Kathleen Stephens, President & CEO, Korea Economic Institute of America;
Former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Korea
Ms. Kelly Magsamen, Vice President, National Security and International Policy,
Center for American Progress
Securing America’s Financial Borders | November 5, 2019 | 12:45 PM – 2:30 PM | Hudson Institute, 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400, Washington, DC 20004 | Register Here
Hudson Institute will host an event to discuss strengthening U.S. national security through the prevention of illicit finance. Panelists will include Bank Policy Institute Senior Vice President Angelena Bradfield; U.S. Treasury Department Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes Senior Policy Advisor Young Lee; and German Marshall Fund Fellow Josh Rudolph. The discussion will be moderated by Hudson Research Fellow Nate Sibley.
Kleptocrats, terrorists, drug cartels, and other transnational criminals exploit vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system every day to launder the profits of crime and corruption. This has prompted recent efforts by U.S. policymakers for a more active approach to address illicit finance. Panelists will discuss recent anti-money laundering developments and additional measures that can be implemented as Congress considers updating the anti-money laundering regime and improving corporate transparency in the U.S.
Speakers
Angelena Bradfield
Senior Vice President, AML/BSA, Sanctions & Privacy, Bank Policy Institute
Young Lee
Senior Policy Advisor, Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Josh Rudolph
Fellow for Malign Finance, Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund
Nate Sibley Moderator
Research Fellow, Kleptocracy Initiative, Hudson
Institute
Contesting the Indo-Pacific: Military Technology and the Shifting Offense-Defense Balance | November 7, 2019 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW, 8th Floor Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
China’s growing capability and influence across the Indo-Pacific provokes pressing questions for U.S. strategy in the region. With Asia undergoing major power transitions and advances in military technology potentially shifting the offense-defense balance, how should the United States, its allies, and its partners across the Indo-Pacific respond?
Eugene Gholz (University of Notre Dame) will present research suggesting that the trajectory of military technology may reinforce the US and its partners’ ability to create buffers against hostile powers, deny aggression, and enhance deterrence with the robust application of anti-access, area-denial (A2/AD) systems.
Featured Guest:
Eugene Gholz, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame
Discussants:
Yun Sun, East Asia Program Co-Director, Stimson Center
Evan Montgomery, Senior Fellow and Director of Research and Studies, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
Moderator:
Sameer
Lalwani, South Asia Program Director,
Stimson Center
Blurring the line: Politics and the military in a post-9/11 America | November 7, 2019 | 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM | AEI, Auditorium, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Americans’ faith in political and social institutions has waned dramatically in recent years. But there is still one institution that US citizens overwhelmingly trust: the military. Politicians, voters, and the media alike increasingly turn to current and former members of the military to participate in public debate, assume leadership positions in the government, and even run for elected office. As the line between military and politics blurs, can the military maintain its revered tradition of nonpartisanship? And when it comes to public service, is there really such a thing as being apolitical?
Please join AEI for two panel discussions exploring these questions and the civil-military dynamics in the post-9/11 era.
Join the conversation on social media with @AEI on Twitter and Facebook.
If you are unable to attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. Full video will be posted within 24 hours.
Agenda
7:45 AM
Registration
8:00 AM
Introduction:
Rebecca Burgess, AEI
8:05 AM
Panel I: ‘Second Service’: Electoral politics and the veteran
Panelists:
Rebecca Burgess,
AEI
Seth Lynn, Veterans Campaign
Jeremy Teigen, Ramapo College
Moderator:
Joe Kristol, US Marine Corps
(former)
8:45 AM
Q&A
9:00 AM
Panel II: A professional and a politician: Finding the ‘dash’ in the
civil-military dynamics
Panelists:
Nora Bensahel, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Jim Golby, US Army
Heidi
Urben, US Army
Moderator:
Giselle Donnelly, AEI
9:50 AM
Q&A
10:00 AM
Adjournment
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Stevenson’s army November 1
President interferes in British election.
SecState says China seeks world domination.
Senate approved one batch of appropriations bills, but not Defense/HHS.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Daring to dream
This joint “non-paper” from the presidents of the Serbia and Kosovo Chambers of Commerce arrived in my inbox earlier this week. My compliments to them for the constructive tone and interesting ideas. Economic progress is not a substitute for a political settlement, but it might make one easier to achieve:
NON PAPER
- We, as the Presidents of the Serbian and Kosovo Chambers of Commerce, are recollecting the commitments of all the parties to the goals expressed in the Final Declaration of the Conference on the Western Balkans held in Berlin, 2014;
- We regret the disunity of the European Union that leads to the refusal to open membership talks with North Macedonia and Albania despite the clear endorsement and promise made to those two countries by the European Council and the Commission. Moreover, the Eurochambers, the biggest association of businesses in Europe representing more than 21 million businesses, strongly supported the European Union enlargement on the Western Balkans as it will benefit both sides economically and will foster stability in the region;
- As the main advocates of the free trade and regional economic integration, we are calling for the adoption of a “New Deal for the Region“ that should lead to a creation of the Western Balkans Economic Area, based on well-established principles of other similar models, including the European Economic Area, built on four fundamental freedoms of the European Union – the free movement of people, goods, services and capital among its members, enabling economic growth, attracting foreign investments and enhancing the global competitiveness of the region. Thus, we are appealing to the European Union to lift the visa regime with Kosovo, enabling its citizens to join their neighbours in enjoying the unrestricted freedom of movement;
- We are aware that the process of normalizing relations between Serbia and Kosovo is one of the key prerequisites for providing a prosperous and stable future to all citizens in the region, and will have a positive effect for overall economic, social and political development of the Western Balkans;
- Finding a long-lasting, sustainable and comprehensive agreement that would provide the future stability of Serbian and Kosovar societies, and laying the ground for unleashing their development potential must be priority for the Kosovo and Serbian Governments, European Union and all other interested parties willing to contribute to the stabilization and development of Serbia, Kosovo and the Western Balkans as a whole;
- To guarantee the success of the agreement, all parties need to be committed and to secure its implementation through a carefully-designed action plan of its implementation, with an overall investment and development package;
- Financial and overall support of the process of normalization, development and cooperation of Kosovo and Serbia should be a priority for international financial institutions, bilateral donors, the European Union, its member states, the United States and for the Serbian and Kosovo Governments;
- Our two Chambers are committed to contribute, in every possible way, to finding a comprehensive and long-lasting agreement between Kosovo and Serbia by proposing priorities in the form of a document on economic cooperation between Kosovo and Serbia, which will take into consideration all the obligations of the two sides, but will also propose areas of cooperation – in energy, infrastructure, education, agro industry, services and other areas – that will be the pillars and drivers of the future development;
- We would like to reiterate our commitment to maintain excellent relations between our Chambers, with the business communities and individuals both in Serbia and in Kosovo, despite the current strained political relations between the two sides. Bearing this in mind, we are committed to further strengthening and enhancing our collaboration and dialogue in order to create a favourable environment for economic cooperation, enabling, inter alia:
- Free movement of people, goods, services and capital,
- Recognition and harmonization of all pending documents,
- Facilitation, if necessary, of talks that would lead to re-establishing and advancing road, railway, air and postal traffic connections and infrastructure,
- Creation of positive climate and conditions conducive to joint investments in Serbia and Kosovo,
- Contribution to resolving all other pending issues that could hamper economic development.
- Further improving sectorial cooperation and understanding between representatives of both business communities, as well as performing matchmaking activities.
- As the representatives of the business communities, we are calling for long-term oriented approach on putting economic and development interests ahead and working to achieve long-lasting and comprehensive agreement that would unleash and harness the creative, economic, natural, and scientific potential of Serbia, Kosovo and the region as a whole;
- We deeply believe that having a lasting solution will make our economies stable and more attractive for foreign investments, especially for those coming from Germany and other EU countries, providing them with a bigger market, skillful workforce able to compete with the latest technological and IT challenges and strategic geographic position;
- Finally, we are committed to provide support to any businesses, institutions and individuals who share our dream of making the Western Balkans developed, prosperous and fully integrated into the European Union.
Berlin, October 21, 2019
Marko Čadež, President
Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia
Berat Rukiqi, President
Kosovo Chamber of Commerce
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Stevenson’s army October 31
- It’s not just Latin America. Protests are also widespread now in the Arab world.
- Lawfare summarizes recent hearings on Syria and Turkey.
- Slate details DOD/OMB fight over Ukraine money, which Congress rescued with a surprise bill.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Good election, big challenges
On October 29 the Middle East Institute (MEI) and Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) hosted an event entitled “Observations from the Tunisian Election.” Tunisian Ambassador Fayçal Gouia delivered the opening remarks and participated in the panel discussion. Georgetown Professor and North Africa specialist William Lawrence moderated the discussion. Panelists included Jeffrey England, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the National Democratic Institute (NDI), Patricia Karam, Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa division of the International Republican Institute (IRI), Sarah Yerkes, Middle East Fellow at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace, and Thomas Hill, senior program officer for North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP).
England emphasized that the joint election observation undertaken by NDI and IRI demonstrated several positive aspects of the Tunisian election. Despite the fact that the July 25 death of former President Essebsi required the election to be held sooner than originally planned, it was peaceful and administered professionally. England also highlighted that the Parliamentary and Presidential debates that were held for the first time are evidence that the democratic system continues to mature. He noted that while there are lingering questions about turnout in the election, there was a larger pool of voters in both rounds than expected. England felt that because President Kais Saied does not belong to a political party he may be better able to hold the parties in Parliament to account.
Karam agreed that the election observation demonstrated several positive developments but noted that Tunisia should amend several aspects of its electoral framework prior to the next election, including campaign finance regulations, media rules, and the interaction between the judicial and electoral systems. Polling shows a crisis of confidence in politicians, growing dissatisfaction with the democratic experiment, and the sense that Tunisian political parties lack a clear vision for economic reform. This dissatisfaction is particularly deep among Tunisian youth, with preliminary data showing that youth turnout in the election may have been as low as 16%. Karam believes Tunisians voted for Saied because they prioritized stability in government, even if it comes with older, more conservative ideas.
Yerkes argued that while Saied received 70% of the votes, giving him a strong mandate, the incarceration of his opponent Karoui during the election was a significant flaw in the democratic process. She believes the election was unquestionably free but does not think it was fair. Karoui’s incarceration highlighted the need for Tunisia to implement a system for absentee voting. The electoral law allows prisoners to vote but there is currently no mechanism for them to do so, meaning that Karoui was unable to vote for himself.
Several panelists agreed that Tunisia’s economy was the key issue in this election and will play a key role in the future of its democracy. Gouia stated that job creation and delivering economic reform will be the first priority of the new administration. England asserted that while the electorate’s main concern was revolution in 2011 and identity in 2014, now people want to see results, particularly on economic issues. Hill argued that the Tunisian social contract has shifted so that graduates expect the government to create jobs for them rather than being entrepreneurial. England agreed, stating that the economic problems cannot be solved before the next election. He felt that the government should focus on developing a long-term plan to reform the economy and attempt to reframe the people’s expectations so that they understand that economic change will take time.
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Stevenson’s army October 30
In a stunning double defeat, the House Wednesday voted 403-16 to impose tough sanctions on Turkey for its invasion of Syria and for the first time ever voted to recognize the Armenian genocide. WaPo has good background on the lobbying efforts that prevented such a vote until now.
Lt.Col Vindman fills in the ellipses, saying that he tried unsuccessfully to get words he overheard in the Trump-Zelensky phone call incorporated into the memcon.
Where are the carriers? In Newport for repairs.
CFR says farmers are $7 billion in the hole because of the trade war with China.
Look at WSJ’s list of the many arguments used by the administration to assert untrammeled presidential power.
How to reduce hyperpartisanship? FP suggests ways to get a multiparty system.
Defense News has a good rundown on what’s in and not in the “skinny” NDAA draft.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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