Stevenson’s army October 17
The president had two angry meetings yesterday, one with the press while the Italian president looked on, and one with congressional leadership, supposedly about Syria. You can’t make this up. Here’s the transcript of the first meeting, and here the blow-by-blow of the second.
Obviously the president was unhappy that 129 House Republicans voted for this measure criticizing his actions in Syria.
NYT also has a good outline of what’s in, and not in, the latest trade agreement with China.
In WaPo, the new National Security Adviser explains why he’s slashing the staff. [No mention of leaks]
In the budget weeds, Lawfare explains the laws and regs on OMB releasing Ukraine aid.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A plea from Deir Ezzor
A plea that arrived today from residents of Deir Ezzor in northeastern Syria:
Recent and sudden political developments on the ground in North East Syria, led to political negotiations that created a dangerous and volatile military environment in Eastern Syria. As a result, the Assad regime and its allied proxy militias recently entered many regions in Northern
Syria. The area has become unstable. Residents fear for their safety and that of their families.
We, the people of Deir Ezzor living inside and outside of Deir Ezzor, express our position in response to these political and military developments by declaring the following:
· We will deny the Assad regime and its Iranian terrorist militias entry into Deir Ezzor under any circumstances.
· We refuse any attempt to negotiate an agreement with the Assad regime and its allied terrorist militias that will facilitate the regime’s entry into our areas or allow it to manipulate and endanger the safety and security of the population.
· We consider any party, group or individual(s) working for or with the Assad regime our enemies and the enemies of the people of Deir Ezzor.
· We demand that the Autonomous Administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces to respect the security concerns of local citizens and that they abide by the political decisions of the civil and military forces representing the people of Deir Ezzor.
· We call upon the people of Deir Ezzor to stand united against any threat to the security of its perimeter. We alert the revolutionary community to be fully prepared to fend off any assault or attack perpetrated against the population by the Assad regime and its terrorist allies.
· We demand, yet again, that the international community fulfill its legal, human and moral obligations to protect areas in Eastern Syria generally and Deir Ezzor in particular. The international community must prevent the Assad regime and its Iranian terrorist allies from entering the area. If the international community allows the Assad regime and its Iranian backed terrorist militias to enter the area, the coalition will lose all political, social and military gains achieved by it and local population. Further, allowing the Assad regime to enter will result in a humanitarian disaster, resulting in collateral damage that will be hard to mitigate. Civilians opposed to the Assad regime and those wanted by the regime’s security apparatus will be in danger. They will be subject to arbitrary detention, physical abuse, and death.
· Finally, we demand that the international community, represented by the United Nations, the international coalition against terrorism, and those countries sponsoring the political transition in Syria in accordance with the relevant international resolutions, immediately address the political demands and security concerns of the people living in the north and east of Syria generally, and Deir Ezzor in particular. The Assad regime and its Iranian backed terrorist militias threaten any effort to ensure a democratic political transition in Syria. These changes also indicate a serious humanitarian disaster and upcoming violations. This region is entering a dangerous phase, the catastrophic results of which will reverberate into the future and not be confined to Syria or the region.
· We hope the international community will finally come together to prevent the impending catastrophe that is about to befall the east.
Victory to the Syrian people’s motivation and cause of freedom, dignity, and democracy.
DeirEzzor
16th October 2019
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Stevenson’s army, October 15
The Trump administration says it wants a cease-fire in northern Syria. Treasury announced sanctions against 3 ministries and higher tariffs on Turkish steel. VP Pence is supposed to go to Ankara sometime soon to talk about a cease-fire. Sen. Graham and Speaker Pelosi have talked about a joint measure to punish Turkey. We don’t know what the US and Turkish leaders said in their Monday phone call, but there is at least one report that Erdogan promised not to attack the Kurdish stronghold of Kobani.
Cease-fires don’t solve problems; at best they just turn them to a simmer. We can’t go back to the status quo ante. Do we want to keep Turkey as an ally? What about our nuclear weapons there? Will Trump pull remaining US forces out of Iraq and Afghanistan? Whatever the president decides, will there be a coordinated interagency effort to carry it out?
How did we get here? David Sanger says Trump rejected the advice of his national security officials and acted on gut instinct.
Meanwhile, the Russians have moved in, patrolling between Turkish and Kurdish forces. [And Putin was lavishly treated in a visit to Saudi Arabia]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Whose side would you choose?
These have been consequential days to be out of commission due to lack of a computer power supply, but Amazon delivered yesterday in Bologna, where I am meeting with students and faculty at the SAIS campus. So I’ll try to catch up.
President Trump has pulled the plug on the US presence in Syria with the expected results: a Turkish invasion from the north and a push from Syrian government forces from the south. The Syrian Kurdish YPG, formerly the core of the US-sponsored forces fighting the Islamic State, has understandably opted for allying itself with Damascus, while Islamic State personnel are busy escaping from YPG captivity. International politics abhors a vacuum and fills it with armed people.
What could have been differently? The Americans needed to negotiate their withdrawal, as they have been trying to do in Afghanistan. Rather than leaving a vacuum, they might have arranged for Ankara, Damascus, Moscow, and the Kurds to come to an understanding about areas of control, at least on a temporary basis. Without such an understanding, the parties concerned will need to fight it out, to the detriment of the effort against ISIS and other extremists. The US is moving towards imposing sanctions on NATO ally Turkey in order to get it to stop fighting the Kurds. The absurdity of that sentence tells you all you need to know about how bad the decision to pull the plug was.
The second major development in recent days is the US/China mini trade agreement. Beijing will supposedly renew massive imports of US agricultural products in exchange for a truce on tariff increases. That accords with the first law of holes: when in one, stop digging. The tariffs are having a negative effect on the world economy, and the dip in Chinese agricultural purchases is blowing a multi-billion dollar hole in the US government budget as the Trump Administration tries to compensate farmers for their losses and hold on to their political loyalty.
But the agreement does little or nothing to solve the bigger problems in the US/China trading relationship, especially theft of intellectual property and forced technology transfer while leaving in place the several waves of tariffs already levied. My guess is that Trump is happy with that: he shows no sign of wanting to get rid of the tariffs, which he views as encouraging US manufacturing despite massive evidence to the contrary. The tariffs are hitting a lot of intermediate goods needed by US manufacturers, making them less competitive in US and world markets. But Trump is a mercantilist. He’ll want to keep the tariffs, no matter what Beijing agrees to do.
The mini deal is at least a step in the right direction: an end to a trade war the US cannot win. That is not true of the President’s decision on Syria. It is prelude to a wider and even more ferocious war in northeastern Syria, where erstwhile US allies will find themselves crushed between the Turkish onslaught and the Syrian counterattack. Levying tariffs on Turkey compounds the misjudgment, as it suggests the Americans did not understand what everyone else knew would happen. Trump is proving the US an unreliable ally to both Turkey and the Kurds, to the advantage of Syrian President Assad. He now has an opportunity to retake the substantial agricultural lands and oil and gas resources of northeastern Syria.
Making America great again is proving not just an empty slogan but a menace to American friends, who will need little encouragement in the future to rely on others for protection. Russia and Iran are the big winners from US policy in Syria. China is proving that trade wars are not easy to win. Whose side would you choose to be on?
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Stevenson’s army, October 13
Who knows what US policy in Syria/Turkey is this morning? NYT has some “live updates.” The president played golf yesterday while aides scrambled to explain what was happening. Lindsey Graham said Trump was willing to sanction Turkey now. [He has the power already; where’s the sanction?] Axios said officials said Trump had called Erdogan’s bluff two times. Looks the opposite to me. Maybe later this week somebody will write the tick-tock.
In other news, it looks as if China got the most out of the mini trade deal.
AP has more background on the Trump=Zelensky phone call.
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Peace Picks October 13-19
After the Syrian Pullback: What’s Next for Middle East Policy|October 15, 2019|9:15am-11:00am|Hudson Institute|Stern Policy Center, 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Suite 400, Washington DC 20004|Register Here
Hudson Institute will host a debate on the latest developments in Syria and Turkey, the impact on U.S. interests, and the future of U.S. Middle East policy. Hudson Senior Fellow Mike Doran will argue in favor of the president’s withdrawal, while Hudson Fellow Blaise Misztal and Former Assistant Secretary of Defense Mary Beth Long will present the counterargument that this move is detrimental to U.S. interests in the region.
The Trump administration’s decision to move U.S. forces out of the way of a Turkish military operation in northeastern Syria is a fundamental change to the last five years of U.S. policy in the region. The decision appears to bring to an end the U.S. partnership with Syrian Kurdish forces, forged in the fight against the Islamic State, while potentially reinvigorating the flagging U.S.-Turkish alliance. The debate will explore the broader implications throughout the region.
Speakers
Blaise Misztal Fellow, Hudson Institute
Mike Doran Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Mary Beth Long Former Assistant Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense
Program
Registration: 9:15 a.m. — 9:30 a.m.
Introduction: 9:30 a.m. — 9:35 a.m.
Panel Remarks and Discussion: 9:35 a.m. — 10:35 a.m.
Audience Q & A: 10:35 a.m. — 11:00 a.m.
Iraq Conference|October 15, 2019|10:00AM-4:00PM|Middle East Institute|1763 N St. NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036|Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host its second Iraq Conference, which will bring together leading policy voices to explore the key challenges and opportunities confronting current and future generations in Iraq. Four panels and two keynotes will explore the ways in which Iraqis, the United States, and the international community must adapt to the political, economic, and social changes facing Iraq.
Agenda:
10:00-11:30AM | Panel I: Regional Cooperation: Operationalizing the Baghdad Declaration
The opening panel will examine opportunities for growth in regional cooperation. Specifically, panelists will propose economic, security, and trade policies which encourage bilateral and multilateral solutions to systemic regional issues.
Joey Hood
Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
Randa Slim
Director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, MEI
H.E. Fareed Yasseen
Ambassador to the United States, Republic of Iraq
Ross Harrison, moderator
Senior Fellow, MEI
11:30AM-1:00PM | Panel II: Rebuilding Iraq’s Social Fabric: A Way Forward for IDPs and Communities Liberated from ISIS
This panel will address the urgent humanitarian concerns, economic desperation, and legal limbo facing internally displaced persons in Iraq, and propose policy solutions regarding livelihoods, safe resettlement, and minority rights protections. Panelists will also explore the legal and social challenges Iraq is facing in dealing with the aftermath of the war against ISIS.
Basma Alloush
Policy and Advocacy Officer, Norwegian Refugee Council
Amb. Rend Al Rahim
President, Iraq Foundation
Rasha Al Aqeedi
Managing Editor, Irfaa Sawtak
Hallam Ferguson
Senior Deputy Assistant Administrator of the Bureau for the Middle East, USAID
Joyce Karam, moderator
Washington Correspondent, The National UAE
1:00-1:30PM | Lunch
1:30-2:45PM | Panel III: Energy, Water, and Climate Change
This panel will explore the ways in which the water crisis and the long term effects of climate change have impacted Iraq. Panelists will explore policy solutions to these challenges and prospects for energy innovation.
Omar Al Nidawi
Program manager, Enabling Peace in Iraq Center
Abbas Kadhim
Director of Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
Bilal Wahab
Nathan and Esther K. Wagner fellow, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Randa Slim, moderator
Director, Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, MEI
2:45-4:00PM | Panel IV: Forecasting Local Provincial Elections and the Popular Mobilization Forces
The closing panel will focus on the upcoming local provincial elections and the importance of political pluralism and participation of Iraqis. The panelists will examine the influence of the PMF and will propose policy solutions to Iraq’s political system and institutional crisis.
Naufel Al Hassan
Former Chief of Staff, Prime Minister’s Office, Republic of Iraq
Shahla Al Kli
Principal Development Specialist, DAI
Michael Fleet (via skype)
Senior researcher, Institute on Governance
Hafsa Halawa
Independent Consultant and Political Analyst
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald Feierstein, moderator
Senior Vice President, MEI
The Syrian Conflict and Kurdish Issue: A Regional Dilemma|October 16, 2019|11:00AM-12:30PM|Turkish Heritage Organization|National Press Club, 529 14th St NW, Washington DC 20045|Register Here
Join THO on October 16, starting at 11:00 AM for a panel discussion on the latest situation in Syria and the realties in the region. We’re delighted to be joined by a group of experts who will analyze the situation and offer their expertise.
Speakers:
Eva Savelsberg, President of the European Center for Kurdish Studies, Germany
Kyle Orton, Senior Foreign Policy Expert, United Kingdom
Abdullah Kedo, Executive at Political Commission of Kurdish National Council & Member of Yekiti Party
*Lunch will be served
Yemen at a Crossroads: Are New Conflict Dynamics Reshaping the Country’s Future?|October 16, 2019|12:30PM-2:00PM|The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington|1050 Connecticut Ave NW, Suite 1060, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here
Recent developments in Yemen’s war, in particular violent clashes between forces operating within the Saudi-led coalition supporting President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, have focused attention anew on deep North-South fissures, the viability of the internationally recognized government, and the boost Houthi rebels have received from the drawdown of Emirati forces. What appears certain is that the dynamics of Yemen’s protracted war have changed materially: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have invested deeply in the conflict, are seeking to protect both national security and economic interests. An emboldened Houthi insurgency seems determined to press its advantage. Even extremist and terrorist groups have re-emerged to assert their capacity to act as spoilers in any political settlement.
Have the Houthi rebels, for all intents and purposes, won Yemen’s war? Is the notion of a unified Yemeni state yet another casualty of the conflict? How are neighboring countries calculating the impact of recent events on their core interests? Have Saudi Arabia and the UAE unleashed forces in Yemen that will threaten these interests and test their alliance?
Speakers
Elana DeLozier – Research Fellow, Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abdulghani al-Iryani – Political and Development Consultant on Yemen
Charles Schmitz – Professor of Geography, Towson University
Ambassador Stephen A. Seche, Moderator – Executive Vice-President, AGSIW
Refugees in Lebanon: Perspectives from on the Ground|October 16, 2019|2:00PM-3:30PM|Middle East Institute|1763 N St. NW, Washington, District of Columbia 20036|Register Here
In recent months, refugees in Lebanon are facing a dismal climate of social polarization, opportunistic political rhetoric, and increasing hostility, with the demolition of some informal camp settlements, enhanced labor law restrictions, and widespread protests. Humanitarian programs must navigate tensions between host, Palestinian and Syrian refugee communities against the backdrop of Lebanon’s serious economic and environmental difficulties.
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and Anera are pleased to invite you to a panel discussion of the many challenges facing Syrian and Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.
Speakers
Dima Zayat | Anera Deputy Country Director, Lebanon
Serene Dardari | Anera Communications and Outreach Manager, Lebanon
Mona Yacoubian | Senior Advisor on Syria, the Middle East, and North Africa, United States Institute of Peace
Randa Slim (moderator) | Senior Fellow and Director of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, MEI
Exploring New Approaches for Atrocity Prevention|October 16, 2019|3:00PM-4:30PM|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here
A new report from the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC) proposes an international doctrine called the “Right to Assist,” which would strengthen external support for nonviolent civil resistance campaigns demanding rights, freedom, and justice against nondemocratic rule. Drawing from social science research and insights from practitioners, Right to Assist argues that support for nonviolent civil resistance can help avert atrocities and civil war, as well as increase the prospect for long-term democratic stability.
Join USIP for a discussion on the Right to Assist doctrine with ICNC President Hardy Merriman, co-author of the report, and other civil resistance experts. The event will look at how Right to Assist could be implemented, as well as how increased external support might be viewed from the perspectives of efficacy, international law, practical concerns, and possible unintended consequences. Join the conversation on Twitter with #PeoplePower4Peace.
Speakers
Quscondy Abdulshafi
Research Consultant, Dexis Consulting Group-OTI/USAID
Ariela Blätter
Program Officer, Atrocities Prevention and Response, Wellspring Philanthropic Fund
Alejandra Espinoza
Executive Director, Voices of Nicaragua
Nancy Lindborg
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Hardy Merriman
President, ICNC
Maria Stephan
Director, Program on Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Complex Puzzle, Shifting Pieces: The Domestic, Regional, and International Forces Reshaping the Gulf|October 17, 2019|8:30AM-5:00PM|Gulf International Forum|The National Press Club, 529 14th Street NW, Washington DC 20045|Register Here
It comes as no surprise that the past year has been a remarkable one for the Gulf region. The sheer change in circumstances for the region compared to this time in 2018 is staggering. While last year’s conversation was unduly concerned with the ramifications of the still-ongoing ‘Gulf Crisis’ the apparent institutionalization of the rift has seemingly killed the bloc’s original purpose. Arising within this void have been the proliferation of new questions related to the War in Yemen, deepening inter-Gulf tensions, a post-JCPOA Iran, and an Iraq precariously fending off a resurging ISIS. Meanwhile, the region has brought about renewed skepticism from the United States and other Western nations, leading to questions concerning the Gulf’s place in the world order. In both hemispheres, a once-quiet region has been vaulted into the spotlight for reasons related to conflict, economics, geopolitics, and human rights. Given these complex dynamics, GIF is looking forward to our Second Annual Gulf International Conference “Complex Puzzle, Shifting Pieces: The Domestic, Regional & International Forces Reshaping the Gulf.” Please join us for a day of panel discussions and presentations that seeks to offer clarity concerning inter-Gulf dynamics, conflict scenarios in Iraq and Yemen, the looming presence of Iran and possible changes to the U.S-Gulf relationship.
Schedule of Events
9:00-9:15 Opening Remarks – Dania Thafer, GIF Executive DIrector
9:15-9:45 Keynotes – the Honorable Ambassador Chas W. Freeman Jr. and Dr. Abu Bakr al-Qirbi
9:50-11:05 – Panel 1: The Changing Same: New Developments for Old Challenges Facing the Gulf
- Congressman James P. Moran Former member, US House of Representatives
- General (Ret.) Mark T. Kimmitt Fmr Asst Sec State for Political-Military Affairs
- Dina Esfandiary Intl Security Program Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and Intl Affairs
- Dr. Lina Khatib Head of MENA programs, Chatham House
- Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen MENA Fellow, Rice University Baker Inst. for Public Policy
11:10-12:25 – Panel 2: Triumphs and Tribulations of Implementing Gulf Economic Visions
- Dr. Tarek Yousef Director, Brookings Center – Doha
- Dr. Bessma Momani Professor, Dept of Poli. Sci University of Waterloo
- Dania Thafer Executive Director, Gulf International Forum
- Dr. Jassim Hussein Former Member, Parliament of Bahrain
12:30-1:00 – Network/Break for Lunch
1:00-2:00 – Lunchtime and Award Ceremony
- Husham Althahabi Founder – The Iraq Home for Creativity
- Maali S. Alasousi Country Director, Direct Aid Organization
2:10-3:25 – Panel 3A: Changing Dynamics of Security and Defense in the Gulf
- Professor David Des Roches Associate Professor, NESA Center for Security Studies
- Dr. Capt Jeffrey Macris USN. RET. Professor of History, United States Naval Academy
- Elana DeLozier Research Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Ambassador Gerald Feierstein Fmr. United States Ambasador to Yemen
- Becca Wasser Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation
- Dr. Abbas Kadhim Director and Senior Resident Fellow Iraq Initiative, Atlantic Council
2:10-3:25 – Panel 3B: Cracked but Unbroken: Women and the Gulf’s Glass Ceiling
- H.E. Dr. Hend al-Muftah Member, Qatari Shura Council
- Negar Morazavi Consultant Editor, The Independent
- Dr. Sahar Khamis Associate Professor, University of Maryland
- Dr. Lana Baydas Human Rights Expert
- Dr. Maalak al-Rasheed Professor, Kuwait University
3:30-4:45 – Panel 4A: Congress and the President: US-Gulf Policymaking in a Divided Government
- Rachel Oswald Foreign Policy Reporter, CQ Roll Call
- Aaron David Miller Fmr. Senior Advisor-Arab Israeli Negotiations, State Dept.
- Steve Simon Fmr. Senior Director-MENA, National Security Council
- The Honorable Mary Beth Long Fmr. Asst. Sec. Def., United States Department of Defense
- Khalil Jahshan Executive Director, Arab Center – DC
- Sheikh Abdulla al-Ali al-Sabah Kuwaiti Academic and Researcher
3:30-4:45 – Panel 4B: Manipulating Religion: Political Islam and the Region’s Competition for Dominance
- Khaled Saffuri Director, National Interest Foundation
- Dr. Abdullah Baabood Professor, Singapore National University
- Dr. Bulent Aras Senior Scholar, Wilson Center
- Dr. Courtney Freer Research Fellow, London School of Economics
- Dr. Kristin Diwan Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
4:50-5:00 – Executive Director’s Closing Remarks
What’s Next for Democracy and Women’s Rights in Afghanistan?|October 18, 2019|8:30-9:30AM|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington DC 20037|Register Here
Join Rep. Susan Davis and Rep. Martha Roby as they reflect on important progress made by and for Afghan women within the domestic, civic, military, and political spheres, which they have highlighted in annual congressional delegations to Afghanistan over the past 12 years. Afghan women have expressed their sense of empowerment, resilience, and determination as they have gained influence over this period. They have also emphasized the challenges they face in securing their critical role in the future development of their country. Rep. Davis and Rep. Roby, who recently led a bipartisan member delegation to Afghanistan in May 2019, will reflect on the past, present, and future of the country. Light refreshments will be served.
Speakers
Rep. Susan Davis (D-CA)
U.S. Representative from California
Rep. Martha Roby (R-AL)
U.S. Representative from Alabama
Nancy Lindborg, moderator
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
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