These two look happy, don’t they?
That of course is EU envoy Miroslav Lajcak on the left and Serbian President Vucic on the right. Accompanying this photo, Lajcak wrote:
Arriving in Belgrade this morning, I met with @predsednikrs @avucic. In our discussion, we focused on the strategic outlook for 2024, took stock on the state of play in the Dialogue and spoke about the next steps in the normalisation of relations with Kosovo.
Despite Lajcak’s effort to portray the meeting in neutral terms, there are good reasons for the grim looks.
The tilt is definitively eastward
Vucic is increasingly alienated from the West the Europeans want him to embrace. Just in the last few months, he has
- Sponsored a terrorist attack inside Kosovo intended to spark a response that would allow him to move his military into his neighbor’s north.
- Mobilized the Serbian army for that purpose.
- Conducted a fraudulent election in Belgrade, importing thousands of voters from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Aligned Serbia increasingly with the strongmen not only of Russia and China but also Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Hungary.
- Increasingly supported the secessionist ambitions of Milorad Dodik, the strongman of the Serb-majority 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
So far as I am aware, the only tidbits Vucic has offered the West are acceptance of Kosovo documents and license plates in Serbia and steps towards payment by Serbs in Kosovo of their electricity bills. I doubt however many Kosovo Albanians will risking their windshields to drive into Serbia with Kosovo plates. We’ll surely need to wait a while before the bills are paid.
What Lajcak should be saying
So what should Lajcak be saying to Vucic once the cameras are out of the room? @ivanastradner gives us part of the answer with this tweet about the UK specialy envoy for the Balkans:
Special envoy to the Western Balkans sent crystal clear messages: 1. Serbia should impose sanctions on Russia. 2. Serbia should investigate elections irregularities. 3. Republika Srpska cannot be an independent state.
telegram channels are so upset…
But that would not suffice. The Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia will have little impact. I would stop asking for them. Belgrade hardly needs to investigate the election irregularities. It needs to rerun the elections. The EU needs to make it clear that Brussels will suspend accession negotiations with Belgrade in response to any future mobilization of the Serbian Army against Kosovo. Belgrade should surrender the avowed ring leader of the September 24 attack to the Kosovo authorities for trial. Brussels require that Vucic publicly renounce the Russian-sponsored, irredentist “Serbian world” program that has endangered the sovereignty and territoriality of Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Macedonia.
https://twitter.com/ivanastradner/status/1751450967504039968/photo/1
The Americans should be chiming in
Washington is in part responsible for the appeasement the EU has undertaken in respone to Belgrade’s defection. It needs to change its tune, in public as well as in private. In addition to pushing on the points above, the US should put its money where its mouth is. There should be no more World Bank money or other multilateral financial assistance for Serbia until it accepts in both word and deed the February and March agreements that both the EU and US claim are legally binding.
The Americans should also revivify their own relations with Pristina and try to bend the EU back into a friendlier relationship with Pristina. The “consequences” Brussels levied on Kosovo last year because of lack of progress in the dialogue with Belgrade were always unjustiably one-sided. Now they look ridiculous. The police the EU wanted withdrawn from Kosovo prevented a disastrous outcome last September 24 when they responded effectively and professionally to the terrorist attack Belgrade sponsored. The non-Serb mayors elected in polls Belgrade got the Serb majorities in the four northern municipalities of Kosovo to boycott have likewise behaved professionally while awaiting a new election.
Smiles all around?
The Balkans are a minor theater of conflict in today’s world. The wars in the Ukraine and the Middle East as well as the Chinese threat against Taiwan are far more important. But even minor instability in the Balkans could greatly complicate those other issues. Irredentism is a major factor in all of them. The Balkan region has a sad history of aggravating larger issues. The US and EU should aim to end any possibility of that happening again. Then maybe Vucic and Lajcak could smile not only at each other but also at Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti.
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Stevenson’s army, January 28
– NBC says WH has asked DOD to see what weapons deliveries can be slowed to pressure Israel
– WSJ says 80% of Hamas tunnels still intact
– NYT has two stories on Gaza peace efforts, one by Peter Baker on Biden approach, the other by diplomatic reporters on the emerging plan
I also want to draw your attention to the excellent article on free speech by Yale’s Stephen L. Carter
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 27
– WaPo says US isn’t planning Ukraine offensive
– Michael Kofman et al. have their suggestions on WOTR
– Kenya court blocks Haiti mission; Haiti suffers.
– Congress approves F16s to Turkey
– Additional countries halt aid to UNRWA
– Biden promises border crackdown if new law is passed
– WaPo says Trump plans expanded trade war with China
– Fred Kaplan revisits Ukraine nuclear decision with declassified documents
– SAIS Prof Hal Brands sees risks of global war
– NYT reviews Gaza peace efforts
—
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Netanyahu should resign, but he won’t
These are the “provisional measures” in today’s decision at the International Court of Justice on Israeli behavior in Gaza:
(1) The State of Israel shall immediately suspend its military operations in and against
Gaza.(2) The State of Israel shall ensure that any military or irregular armed units which may
be directed, supported or influenced by it, as well as any organisations and persons
which may be subject to its control, direction or influence, take no steps in
furtherance of the military operations referred to [in] point (1) above.(3) The Republic of South Africa and the State of Israel shall each, in accordance with
their obligations under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the
Crime of Genocide, in relation to the Palestinian people, take all reasonable
measures within their power to prevent genocide.(4) The State of Israel shall, in accordance with its obligations under the Convention on
the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, in relation to the
Palestinian people as a group protected by the Convention on the Prevention and
Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, desist from the commission of any and all
acts within the scope of Article II of the Convention, in particular:
(a) killing members of the group;
(b) causing serious bodily or mental harm to the members of the group;
(c) deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about
its physical destruction in whole or in part; and
(d) imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group.(5) The State of Israel shall, pursuant to point (4) (c) above, in relation to Palestinians,
desist from, and take all measures within its power including the rescinding of
relevant orders, of restrictions and/or of prohibitions to prevent:
(a) the expulsion and forced displacement from their homes;
(b) the deprivation of:
(i) access to adequate food and water;
(ii) access to humanitarian assistance, including access to adequate fuel,
shelter, clothes, hygiene and sanitation;
(iii) medical supplies and assistance; and
(c) the destruction of Palestinian life in Gaza.(6) The State of Israel shall, in relation to Palestinians, ensure that its military, as well
as any irregular armed units or individuals which may be directed, supported or
otherwise influenced by it and any organizations and persons which may be subject
to its control, direction or influence, do not commit any acts described in (4) and (5)
above, or engage in direct and public incitement to commit genocide, conspiracy to
commit genocide, attempt to commit genocide, or complicity in genocide, and
insofar as they do engage therein, that steps are taken towards their punishment
pursuant to Articles I, II, III and IV of the Convention on the Prevention and
Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.(7) The State of Israel shall take effective measures to prevent the destruction and
ensure the preservation of evidence related to allegations of acts within the scope of
Article II of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of
Genocide; to that end, the State of Israel shall not act to deny or otherwise restrict
access by fact-finding missions, international mandates and other bodies to Gaza to
assist in ensuring the preservation and retention of said evidence.(8) The State of Israel shall submit a report to the Court on all measures taken to give
effect to this Order within one week, as from the date of this Order, and thereafter
at such regular intervals as the Court shall order, until a final decision on the case is
rendered by the Court.(9) The State of Israel shall refrain from any action and shall ensure that no action is
https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240126-ord-01-00-en.pdf
taken which might aggravate or extend the dispute before the Court or make it more
difficult to resolve.
While some media have headlined this to indicate the ICJ did not order a ceasefire, it is hard to see how Israel could comply without one, in particular with item (1). Israel’s ad hoc judge, appointed for this specific case, voted with a Ugandan judge against items 1, 2, 5, and 6.
Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected what he termed these “outrageous” decisions. This failure in court represents the latest in a series of clamorous Netanyahu failures. His governments have failed to cut support for Hamas, which he viewed as preventing a cohesive Palestinian Authority, giving him an excuse not to negotiate. His government failed to foresee the October 7 Hamas attack and to respond quickly and effectively. The Israel Defense Forces have failed in the 3.5 months since to achieve their declared objectives of destroying Hamas and gaining freedom for most of the hostages.
He should resign but likely won’t. He regards himself and his fate as the equivalent of the Israeli state’s. L’etat c’est lui. Only 15% of the country wants him as prime minister once the war is over. A resignation now would end not only his political career but likely also his personal freedom, as he would then have to face corruption charges.
Netanyahu has steered Israel in an illiberal ethnonationalist direction for much of the past 30 years, during which he has served as prime minister for 16. He has consistently opposed a Palestinian state. He now governs with blatant racists and Jewish supremacists whose behavior has convinced the ICJ that Israel is committing genocide. If Israel faces an existential threat, Netanyahu has created it. It is time for him to go.
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Stevenson’s army, September 26
– Peter Baker sees a divided America. Note this point:
In an increasingly tribal society, Americans describe their differences more personally. Since Mr. Trump’s election in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center, the share of Democrats who see Republicans as immoral has grown from 35 percent to 63 percent while 72 percent of Republicans say the same about Democrats, up from 47 percent. In 1960, about 4 percent of Americans said they would be displeased if their child married someone from the other party. By 2020, that had grown to nearly four in 10. Indeed, only about 4 percent of all marriages today are between a Republican and a Democrat.
– WSJ says US warned Iran in advance of suicide bombers.
– WSJ says US will meet with China about Red Sea– Vox sees more war going on.- Analyst says Iraq is falling apart
– FP questions Biden’s Venezuela policy
– FP reports European reactions to Trump
-WaPo says US foreign military training has inconsistencies
– Europe has different models of conscription
– Think tank reports on Chinese FDI in Latin America
– Experts see North Korea readying for military action
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 25
– Slovakia makes a U-turn to support Ukraine
– Orban now seems willing to let Sweden join NATO
– McConnell backs away from Ukraine + border bill
– Biden pressures Congress on F16s for Turkey
– All but 2 Senate Democrats cosponsor amendment calling for 2 state solution. Here’s the text
– SFRC approves bill to use Russian assets for Ukraine
-Here’s the text of the Kaine et al letter on war powers for Houthi attacks
– RollCall reports 2023 lobbying expenses. Note how little was foreign policy related.
And read this delightful interview with Sen. Angus King [Ind-Maine] about when he was a young Senate staffer. Times have changed.
—
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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