Tag: China

Time to turn the policy around

This was at the UN Security Council yesterday.

There is no exaggeration in what Albin is saying. President Vucic financed, supported, and orchestrated the terrorist attack of September 24. The Kosovo police the EU wanted (and continues to want) withdrawn from northern Kosovo responded professionally, killed three of the perpetrators, and prevented worse from happening. Washington and Brussels know this but won’t say it. They prefer to allow Vucic to get off scot-free.

They are likewise allowing him to avoid responsibility for the unfair national and fraudulent Belgrade elections of December 27. The European Parliament has called for a commission to investigate. But so far the European Commission, the Council, and most of the Member States are keeping their mouths shut about an election that wouldn’t pass muster in any EU country. It didn’t come close to the relatively free and fair elections in recent years in Kosovo, including two that installed Kurti in office.

See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil

Why this “see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil” approach to someone who is taking an EU candidate country into ever closer alignment with Russia and China? Many tell me the ammunition Serbia supplies to Ukraine is a factor. But Belgrade surely ships as much ordnance or other military supplies to Moscow as it does to Kyiv. It is unlikely Vucic would cut off Kyiv out of spite for Western criticism. Inat only goes so far when it is a question of profits for your arms manufacturer friends.

Support for “stability” is another possible explanation. But Vucic has no viable opposition, either on the liberal democratic side of Serbian politics or the ethnic nationalist side. Serbia’s problem is a lack of political competition, not an excess of it. He is the destabilizing force both in his country’s politics and in its relations with its neighbors.

The internationals are part of the problem

Lack of international political horsepower is another explanation. EU negotiator Miroslav Lajcak is exhausted and at the end of his rope. The dialogue he has led for more than three and a half years has played out. Belgrade has repeatedly and loudly renounced supposed “legally binding” agreements reached there. Yesterday he refused to sign them at the Security Council. Without real progress on de facto if not de jure recognition, Pristina refuses to create the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities that Lajcak and American negotiator Gabe Escobar unwisely made their top priority.

Many hope things will improve with Assistant Secretary of State O’Brien in charge. He has been appropriately blunt with the Bosnians. But it is not clear whether he is prepared to dial up the heat on Vucic about the Serbian elections, the dialogue with Pristina, Belgrade’s September 24 terrorist attack, or the kidnapping of three policemen on Kosovo territory. Jim recognizes the difficulty of any political settlement and tries to steer his efforts in the economic direction, hoping to flank the recognition issue.

So who cares?

None of this is a big problem, at least as seen from Washington or Brussels. But it isn’t a big problem until it is. Vucic is increasingly serious in his efforts to destabilize the neighboring countries with irredentist and self-victimizing claims on behalf of their Serb populations. The Russians will be pushing him in that direction, to echo and amplify their own claims in Ukraine. The atmosphere in Bosnia, Montenegro, and Kosovo is increasingly tense. It would not take much effort to provoke instability even in all three, then justify the movement of Serbian tanks to protect the local Serb population from false rumors of ethnic cleansing and genocide.

Even without revanchist moves into his neighbors, Vucic can exploit the Serbian domestic scene to promote violence. His security forces have been arresting and beating dissenters who dare to apologize for Serb atrocities in the 1990s. They have even lain flowers on the grave of a young girl killed by Serb security forces in Kosovo. The repression intimidates the Serbian opposition and ensures it will not retreat from hard-line Serbian nationalism on Kosovo. It is admittedly inclined not to do so anyway, but Vucic wants to make sure no one gets any fancy ideas about acknowledging the malfeasance of the Milosevic era. As Information Minister then, he was a mainstay of that regime.

What is to be done?

The right approach to this situation is to recognize failure and turn the policy around. I thought when he first came to power Vucic might be the guy to take Serbia in a democratic direction. He has chosen not to be. He instead decided not to befriend the West but rather to ally with the East. He dishes out just enough goodies to Washington and Brussels to keep them from calling his bluff. It doesn’t take much.

It is time to call him out, loudly and clearly. The US should insist on the transfer of the September 24 perpetrators to Kosovo for trial. As the European Parliament has proposed, the EU should stop its ample financing of Serbian efforts to prepare for accession until new elections are held, at least in Belgrade. The dialogue should be refocused on the economic issues O’Brien prefers. The EU and US should call out high-level corruption in Belgrade. The EU should lift the “consequences” it levied on Kosovo and acknowledge Pristina’s anti-corruption efforts. That would be a Balkans policy worthy of President Biden’s claims to supporting democracy.

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Stevenson’s army, February 4

Houthi strikes and more NYT updates

– WSJ says US stays clear of Iran red lines

– WSJ interviews Israeli far-right leader

-NYT explains Xi’s nuclear approach

– FP says Trump would greatly change US foreign aid

-House GOP plans simple Israel aid bill

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, February 1

Americans trust nurses the most, members of Congress the least.

– John Bolton doesn’t trust Donald Trump

Ukraine can trust EU, given aid deal

– Shippers can’t trust freedom of the seas

– Retired 2 star says US learned wrong lessons from recent wars

– Paul Pillar says US is repeating mistakes about Iran

-Journalist interviews Houthis

– Reuters says US uses exercises to prepare for defense of Taiwan

-Politico has story about Sullivan China speech

– Axios lists likely Trump advisers on China

– HFAC considers changes in arms sales rules

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, January 31

-Lawfare has update on the Philippine-Chinese war wars

– Additional pieces convince me that Congress doesn’t need to authorize strikes on the Houthis; customary international law on piracy already does that, as does the right of self-defense

– WSJ explains the 3 stage  pause proposed for the Gaza war.

– Despite denials, FT says Zelensky will fire top general; NYT has background.

– State Dept minimizes significance of cut to UNWRA

– FP looks at history of Hungarian resistance to outsiders

-Last night I heard Jake Sullivan discuss US China policy at CFR. His talk persuaded me that the US has a robust, whole of government effort at work, the kind needed for great power competition and cooperation.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, January 30

– WSJ says defense contractors are turning down business.

– Axios says a Communist Party office is taking over from the foreign ministry.

-Steve Vladeck explains why Gov. Abbott’s actions are unconstitutional

– CIA Director Burns  says CIA is changing

– African specialists say US gives too much military aid.

– Lawfare podcast discusses war powers against Houthis.

– What’s happened to the Heritage Foundation?

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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These two look happy, don’t they?

That of course is EU envoy Miroslav Lajcak on the left and Serbian President Vucic on the right. Accompanying this photo, Lajcak wrote:

Arriving in Belgrade this morning, I met with @predsednikrs @avucic. In our discussion, we focused on the strategic outlook for 2024, took stock on the state of play in the Dialogue and spoke about the next steps in the normalisation of relations with Kosovo.

Despite Lajcak’s effort to portray the meeting in neutral terms, there are good reasons for the grim looks.

The tilt is definitively eastward

Vucic is increasingly alienated from the West the Europeans want him to embrace. Just in the last few months, he has

  1. Sponsored a terrorist attack inside Kosovo intended to spark a response that would allow him to move his military into his neighbor’s north.
  2. Mobilized the Serbian army for that purpose.
  3. Conducted a fraudulent election in Belgrade, importing thousands of voters from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
  4. Aligned Serbia increasingly with the strongmen not only of Russia and China but also Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Hungary.
  5. Increasingly supported the secessionist ambitions of Milorad Dodik, the strongman of the Serb-majority 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

So far as I am aware, the only tidbits Vucic has offered the West are acceptance of Kosovo documents and license plates in Serbia and steps towards payment by Serbs in Kosovo of their electricity bills. I doubt however many Kosovo Albanians will risking their windshields to drive into Serbia with Kosovo plates. We’ll surely need to wait a while before the bills are paid.

What Lajcak should be saying

So what should Lajcak be saying to Vucic once the cameras are out of the room? @ivanastradner gives us part of the answer with this tweet about the UK specialy envoy for the Balkans:

Special envoy to the Western Balkans sent crystal clear messages: 1. Serbia should impose sanctions on Russia. 2. Serbia should investigate elections irregularities. 3. Republika Srpska cannot be an independent state.

telegram channels are so upset…

But that would not suffice. The Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia will have little impact. I would stop asking for them. Belgrade hardly needs to investigate the election irregularities. It needs to rerun the elections. The EU needs to make it clear that Brussels will suspend accession negotiations with Belgrade in response to any future mobilization of the Serbian Army against Kosovo. Belgrade should surrender the avowed ring leader of the September 24 attack to the Kosovo authorities for trial. Brussels require that Vucic publicly renounce the Russian-sponsored, irredentist “Serbian world” program that has endangered the sovereignty and territoriality of Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Macedonia.

https://twitter.com/ivanastradner/status/1751450967504039968/photo/1
The Americans should be chiming in

Washington is in part responsible for the appeasement the EU has undertaken in respone to Belgrade’s defection. It needs to change its tune, in public as well as in private. In addition to pushing on the points above, the US should put its money where its mouth is. There should be no more World Bank money or other multilateral financial assistance for Serbia until it accepts in both word and deed the February and March agreements that both the EU and US claim are legally binding.

The Americans should also revivify their own relations with Pristina and try to bend the EU back into a friendlier relationship with Pristina. The “consequences” Brussels levied on Kosovo last year because of lack of progress in the dialogue with Belgrade were always unjustiably one-sided. Now they look ridiculous. The police the EU wanted withdrawn from Kosovo prevented a disastrous outcome last September 24 when they responded effectively and professionally to the terrorist attack Belgrade sponsored. The non-Serb mayors elected in polls Belgrade got the Serb majorities in the four northern municipalities of Kosovo to boycott have likewise behaved professionally while awaiting a new election.

Smiles all around?

The Balkans are a minor theater of conflict in today’s world. The wars in the Ukraine and the Middle East as well as the Chinese threat against Taiwan are far more important. But even minor instability in the Balkans could greatly complicate those other issues. Irredentism is a major factor in all of them. The Balkan region has a sad history of aggravating larger issues. The US and EU should aim to end any possibility of that happening again. Then maybe Vucic and Lajcak could smile not only at each other but also at Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti.

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