Tag: Syria

Stevenson’s army, January 29

– WSJ says the  drone attack at Tower 22 succeeded because it was confused with a returning US drone.

– NYT reports on possible retaliatory options.

– Politico sees GOP split.

Eliot Cohen says go to war with Iran. [FYI, I strongly disagree]

Best list I’ve seen is from MEI’s Lister, as in the ever-valuable D Brief:

What are some options for a U.S. response that are not inside Iran? One target might include the “general cargo” (and likely surveillance) ship Behshad, which has been hanging around the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden during virtually every Houthi naval attack off the Yemeni coast. 

MEI’s Lister had four suggestions: 

  • The “Glasshouse” at the airport in Damascus; 
  • The Imam Ali Base in eastern Syria, which features “hardened missile tunnels,” according to Lister; 
  • The Dimas Airbase, which is a “major drone facility” west of Damascus; 
  • And the Mayadin special forces training camp in eastern Syria.

– Keep an eye on Ecuador — will be part of week 4 exercise. FT today. 

– CFR’s Steve Biddle analyzes Russia’s defensive strategy

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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The cacophony is deafening but unnecessary

Just one example…

It is hard to make good sense of the varying perspectives on the Gaza war. Let me try to suggest they need not be so cacophonous.

Israel and the United States are diverging

The dissonance between Israel and the United States is get louder. They agree on the war objective of destroying Hamas in Gaza, whatever that means. But President Biden is pressing Israel to allow more humanitarian aid, protect civilians, ease the crackdown on the West Bank, and agree to turn over Gaza eventually to a renewed Palestinian Authority. Biden is also worrying out loud about declining international support for Israel and about the extreme nationalists in Israel’s right-wing government.

Prime Minister Netanyahu will have none of it. He wants Israel to be responsible for Gaza security after the war and to conduct a deradicalization operation, whatever that is. The Prime Minister claims Israel is already doing everything reasonable to allow humanitarian assistance and to protect civilians. He is uninterested in bringing the Palestinian Authority into Gaza and is continuing the crackdown in the West Bank. He hopes to stay in power, at least so long as the war lasts. That will make it last longer.

Arab disharmony

This is not the only disharmony evident around Gaza issues. Arab countries are anxious to signal support for a ceasefire in particular and Palestinians in general. But they in fact have done little to pressure Israel or Hamas for one. The Abrahamic accords remain in place and the Arab signatories (and possible future signatories) are not doing anything to limit Israeli economic and military capabilities. Nor is there any sign they are helping to block Hamas from resupplying.

Gaza has split the Arab world. Syria, Hizbollah-conditioned Lebanon, and Houthi-ruled parts of Yemen are trying to aggravate Israel’s challenges. Iran is supplying and cheering them on, thus prolonging the agony of the Gazas the “resistance axis” claims to support.

Others would be happy to see the destruction of Hamas, which is especially non grata in Egypt and the UAE. Those two countries loathe Islamist politics, especially the Muslim Brotherhood version from which Hamas descends. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and even Qatar don’t want to see Hamas win and thereby seize the banner of Palestinian liberation.

Even within Israel and in the West Bank, there are conflicting Arab views. Some Palestinians within Israel came to the aid of Jews on October 7. In the West Bank, however, Hamas has gained support.

American Muslims, Christians, and Jews

Inside the United States, there is growing discomfort among the majority of Jews, who lean heavily Democratic, with Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza. That contrasts with the Christian right solid support for Israel. Liberal American Jews largely agree with American Muslims on a ceasefire and on a two-state solution. The vast majority of American Jews differ from more radical Muslims and supporters who are pro-Hamas or oppose the idea of a Jewish state.

Harmonizing

The cacophony is unnecessary. Here are a few propositions that many would support:

  1. Hamas has proven itself devoted to mass murder of civilians. Disempowering it is vital, though its Islamist ideology will survive.
  2. The current conduct of the war is not the only way to disempower Hamas and does not appear to be succeeding. It is killing a disproportionate number of civilians relative to modest military accomplishments.
  3. Israel should end the military attacks and hunt Hamasees responsible for the October 7 murder and mayhem individually. Many Arab states would be prepared to cooperate, quietly, in that effort.
  4. A massive relief operation is already needed for Gaza. The requirements will increase once the war stops. The US, Europe, the Gulf, and Israel need to prepare to meet those requirements.
  5. American and Israeli Muslims, Christians, and Jews should unite in supporting humanitarian assistance and reconstruction.
  6. Governance of Gaza after the war will be an enormous challenge. If it is not met, guys with guns, many of them former Hamas, will run local protection rackets, trade in drugs and other contraband, and continue to attack Israel when the opportunity arises.
  7. Chaos of that sort on Israel’s border is in no one’s interest, especially Egypt and Jordan (because of the likely infection of the West Bank) but also the Gulf.
  8. A clear roadmap to a two-state solution would offer a political outcome most Palestinians would find attractive and most countries, other than Iran’s proxies, could support.
  9. This would need to start with renewal of the Palestinian Authority, through presidential and parliamentary elections as well as convening the Palestinian Legislative Council.
  10. It will also require replacement of Prime Minister Netanyahu and his extreme right-wing coalition in Israel with politicians prepared to deal with the Palestinian Authority once renewed.

Not everyone will agree with these propositions. But they are a start in building a consensus among today’s dissonant voices.

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Stevenson’s army, December 13

– The Zelensky visit produced no breakthrough on Ukraine aid in DC. But FT says EU is looking for technical tricks to get around Orban veto of new aid.

– Politico reports declassified intelligence on Russian losses

– In private meeting with fundraisers, Biden sharply criticized Israel, referred to “indiscriminate bombing.”

– WSJ says Israel is flooding Gaza tunnels.

– In print edition, WaPo has long articles on problems in Ukraine offensive and many pages on the Discord leaks

– House China committee urges legal changes forcing higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Here’s the report.

– Politico says Trump wants deal with North Korea letting it keep nuclear weapons

– FYI, WH sent Congress latest war powers report

– Senate voted against forcing US troops from Syria.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, November 1

– WaPo says House GOP Israel bill will add $90 billion to the debt over 10 years.

– Yale prof warns against bombing Mexico

– Consistent with War Powers law and past precedent, Biden informed Congress of the recent US attacks in Iraq and Syria.

– I’ve often told the story that LBJ asked a prospective White House counsel if he was “a Yes lawyer or a No lawyer.” NYT says Trump would want only Yes lawyers in a new administration.

– SecState Blinken expects a “revitalized Palestinian Authority” will rule postwar Gaza.

Trade-offs [from D Brief]

Chinese-drone ban gains pace: Later today, bipartisan members of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party plan to introduce the American Security Drone Act of 2023, the latest attempt to stop the U.S. government from buying drones built in China and other countries labeled as national security threats. It follows several failed attempts to extend the current ban on DOD purchases of Chinese drones to the rest of the government, including a companion to a Senate bill that was re-introduced in February after failing to pass in 2021.

Here’s a case for such a ban, from former INDOPACOM ops director Mark Montgomery, now with FDD. Essentially, he argues at D1, Chinese-made drones could spy on U.S. citizens and infrastructure. 

Here’s a case against it, from drone expert Faine Greenwood, writing at Foreign Policy. The FP piece is paywalled, but she limns it here: “There’s one big, fat problem: there is no non-Chinese consumer drone company that does what DJI does. Much less does it at such a low price-point, which is a vital consideration for the vast swaths of modern drone users who don’t have unlimited cash to throw around. And building a DJI-killer is a lot harder than you might assume: although a number of Western competitors tried to knock DJI off the pedestal over the last decade, they all failed…Eventually, they largely stopped trying. This is also why both Ukrainians and Russians are continuing to chew through vast quantities of DJI drones on the battlefield, despite massive misgivings about their reliance on Chinese tech.”

DOD’s current bans: The Pentagon stopped buying drones from China’s DJI in 2017, and most off-the-shelf drones in 2018; that same year, Congress generally but not totally forbade the military to buy any Chinese-made drones. 

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A difficult choice and an easy one

The questions of a “humanitarian pause” and an Israeli invasion of Gaza are often discussed separately. They are related.

No invasion means more bombing

We have to assume that Israel will not let Hamas off the hook. At a minimum, Israel is trying to destroy Hamas’ military capability. That can only be done by military means. If you want to see a “humanitarian pause,” the bombing will stop, but that increases from the Israeli perspective the need to go into Gaza to hunt Hamasniks. If you want Israel to stay out of Gaza, the bombing will have to continue and even intensify.

My own preference would be for the Israelis to stay out of Gaza. Urban warfare is difficult and deadly even without an extensive network of tunnels. Once in, the Israelis will likely find they will need to stay, unless they are prepared to see something like Hamas (or worse) return. The invasion, plus an occupation of a decade or more, will kill a lot more Israelis and Palestinians than the bombing.

An Israeli invasion of Gaza is also likely to trigger a wider regional war. Hizbollah in Lebanon, various Iranian proxies in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen are capable of launching thousands of missiles at Israel. If the Israelis can’t handle that, they will turn to the United States to help out. Intense American attacks on Iranian proxies could trigger war with Iran. That scenario is a nightmare to be avoided, even if some hawks in the US might welcome it.

Of course there is an option for no bombing and no invasion. But that won’t satisfy popular opinion inside Israel. Nor would it help Prime Minister Netanyahu stay in power. He is responsible for the intelligence and preparedness failures that allows Hamas to do what it did. As soon as the military action stops, political accountability will begin. He will try to postpone that day.

Stop the abuse

The easy choice is on the West Bank. There the Israeli army and ultra-religious settlers have been harassing and killing Palestinians with impunity, not only since October 7. That behavior infuriates Palestinians and Arabs everywhere. From Israel’s own perspective, this is counterproductive. It could also be dangerous. The dog that hasn’t barked is Israel’s own Arab Palestinian population.

Here too Netanyahu is the fly in the ointment. He has been unwilling to reign in the extremists of his own coalition. Nor has the broadening of that coalition with a few opposition politicians compelled him to do so. The Americans are speaking up against Israeli behavior on the West Bank, but so far with little effect. They need to make it stick.

Get ahead of the political curve

At the moment, the Israelis are both intensifying the bombing and entering Gaza at will, without however yet trying to hold territory there. But humanitarian conditions are deteriorating rapidly and clearly require at least a bombing pause. Israel should combine that with a clear statement of restraint in the West Bank and a promise to deal with legitimate Palestinian aspirations once the fighting is over. But of course that would not help Netanyahu, so it is unlikely to happen.

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Arab rebellion in eastern Syria

Former Syrian diplomat Bassam Barabandi writes, prompted by the current Arab rebellion against Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) rule in Deir ez-Zur:

Insincerity has consequences

The way the current US administration deals with the Arab world is controversial and confusing. On the one hand, senior American officials visit Arab countries and confirm the strategic relationship that binds Washington with these countries as well as the need for Iran to stop its policy aimed at instability in the region. Then they give Iran access to more than 10 billion dollars, knowing that part of it will be used against countries that Washington claims to be its allies.

Washington claims that it supports human rights, democracy, and transparency, and then allows its Kurdish Communist allies (PKK) in Syria to use American weapons to bomb Arab civilians who demand justice and trust American values.

Washington should be aware that American policy and actions are being analyzed, studied, and built upon by all countries and peoples. The result is an irreparable loss in credibility and sincerity.

False claims

In Deir ez-Zur, the SDF is trying to attach three accusations to the movement of the Arab tribes:

  1. SDF claims the Arabs launched their movement for the sake of a militia leader named Abu Khawla, but the truth is that Abu Khawla is the creation of the SDF. No one rebelled because of him, but rather because of the repressive and corrupt practices of the SDF. The Arab clans are the ones who demanded the dismissal of Abu Khawla when the SDF supported him.
  2. The SDF claims the region supports ISIS, but in fact the Arab clans fought ISIS before the formation of the anti-ISIS coalition and the emergence of the SDF. ISIS has killed thousands of Arab clansmen. The clans themselves have been at the forefront in the fight against ISIS, including under the leadership of the coalition.
  3. SDF claims the clans cooperate with the regime and the Iranians, but it is the SDF that deals with the regime and says its relations with Iran are good. The people of Deir ez-Zur liberated the region from the regime and have continued to fight it since mid-2012. It is the Arab youth who fight the Iranian militias. The regime has destroyed large parts of the province in retaliation.
The US needs to act

The US government should intervene to solve the problems in Deir ez-Zur. The continuation of the conflict there is not in the interest of anyone except Iran, Russia, and the Syrian regime, which is working to fuel it with all the means available. The silence of the Department of Defense and Centcom’s Operation Inherent Resolve will not help.

Steps required from the US side, to help it return to its mission:

  1. Change all the leaders of the SDF/PKK in the Deir ez-Zur region, because they are the cause of the problems.
  2. Call for a general meeting of the representatives of the people of the region, including sheikhs, notables, and intellectuals, to listen to the people’s demands directly. The purpose of the meeting would be to find a new administrative, economic, and military mechanism for Al-Deir that meets the demands of the people without interference from the SDF or its cadres.
  3. Avoid dealing with Arabs the SDF nominates.
  4. Investigate whether the SDF has used US weapons in the commission of war crimes in Deir ez-Zur.

The Department of State delegation that visited the area last weekend failed to meet any of the real local representatives. The SDF launched a massive attack in the wake of the meeting, which confirms that the mission failed.

The SDF needs to act too

The SDF cannot continue in its current direction. It needs to

  1. Release Deir ez-Zur people from 21 SDF detention centers.
  2. Change its media discourse, which constantly accuses the people of Deir ez-Zur people of being criminals, agents, and smugglers.
  3. Allow International human rights organizations to enter Deir ez-Zur under the protection of US forces to investigate the war crimes.
Deir ez-Zur is a test for the US

The US is currently trying to negotiate a “mega-deal” with Saudi Arabia and Israel that will have to give something to the Palestinians. But the same US Administration has failed to stop SDF/PKK killing of Arabs in Deir ez-Zur. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas should test any US offer by asking the US officials to listen to the Arab demands in northeast Syria. He should want to see if the Americans can deliver before moving one step further.

At the end of the day, the US forces will leave Syria and the Kurds and the Arabs will stay. Helping the two indigenous communities to find common ground will pay dividends to the US in the long term.

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