Tag: Yemen

Stevenson’s army, February 4

Houthi strikes and more NYT updates

– WSJ says US stays clear of Iran red lines

– WSJ interviews Israeli far-right leader

-NYT explains Xi’s nuclear approach

– FP says Trump would greatly change US foreign aid

-House GOP plans simple Israel aid bill

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, January 30

– WSJ says defense contractors are turning down business.

– Axios says a Communist Party office is taking over from the foreign ministry.

-Steve Vladeck explains why Gov. Abbott’s actions are unconstitutional

– CIA Director Burns  says CIA is changing

– African specialists say US gives too much military aid.

– Lawfare podcast discusses war powers against Houthis.

– What’s happened to the Heritage Foundation?

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, January 29

– WSJ says the  drone attack at Tower 22 succeeded because it was confused with a returning US drone.

– NYT reports on possible retaliatory options.

– Politico sees GOP split.

Eliot Cohen says go to war with Iran. [FYI, I strongly disagree]

Best list I’ve seen is from MEI’s Lister, as in the ever-valuable D Brief:

What are some options for a U.S. response that are not inside Iran? One target might include the “general cargo” (and likely surveillance) ship Behshad, which has been hanging around the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden during virtually every Houthi naval attack off the Yemeni coast. 

MEI’s Lister had four suggestions: 

  • The “Glasshouse” at the airport in Damascus; 
  • The Imam Ali Base in eastern Syria, which features “hardened missile tunnels,” according to Lister; 
  • The Dimas Airbase, which is a “major drone facility” west of Damascus; 
  • And the Mayadin special forces training camp in eastern Syria.

– Keep an eye on Ecuador — will be part of week 4 exercise. FT today. 

– CFR’s Steve Biddle analyzes Russia’s defensive strategy

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, January 25

Slovakia makes a U-turn to support Ukraine

Orban now seems willing to let Sweden join NATO

McConnell backs away from Ukraine + border bill

– Biden pressures Congress on F16s for Turkey

All but 2 Senate Democrats cosponsor amendment calling for 2 state solution. Here’s the text

– SFRC approves bill to use Russian assets for Ukraine

-Here’s the text of the Kaine et al letter on war powers for Houthi attacks

– RollCall reports 2023 lobbying expenses. Note how little was foreign policy related.

And read this delightful interview with Sen. Angus King [Ind-Maine] about when he was a young Senate staffer. Times have changed.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, January 16

The Federal Government is closed today, but I’m open. No broadsheet papers, however — new carrier who’s “never seen snow.”

-Semafor says Iran IRGC has people in Yemen

– Iran admits attack in Erbil.

– Tusk & Duda clash.

– US approves Javelins to Kosovo.

– Here’s summary of new CR, with Senate voting maybe tonight.

– RollCall says Speaker Johnson wants to cut DHS via 302[b] allocations

– Sen. Sanders wants vote on Israeli practices in Gaza

Here’s Politico’s report on Dean Steinberg et al.’s visit to Taiwan:

US DELEGATION IN TAIWAN: A delegation of former senior administration officials tasked by the State Department “to travel in their private capacity to Taiwan” is meeting with the island’s post-election incoming senior officials. Landing in Taipei just a day after the election, former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and former Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg met with Lai, outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, leaders of the Kuomintang opposition, and the Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-je, who’s set to be a kingmaker in the race for the parliament speakership.

According to Laura Rosenberger, chairperson of the American Institute in Taiwan, the delegation stressed that the U.S. intends to work with all parties in Taiwan, adding there would be more meetings with senior Taiwanese officials on stronger cooperation, including in beefing up Taiwan’s self-defense. There’ll also be continued cooperation in trade and technology, Rosenberger added.

The concern — a parliament run by Lai’s rivals: Rosenberger’s remarks come as diplomats in Taipei are waiting to see how an opposition-led parliament could delay the DPP government’s policies, especially on defense. The Kuomintang, which stresses engagement with China, had a track record of criticizing military procurement on the grounds of corruption allegations.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Avoiding the slippery slope to the wider war

Hizbollah and Israel are trading tit for tat attacks across the Lebanon-Israel border. The Houthis in Yemen are attacking shipping in the Red Sea. The US and UK have raided Houthi military assets. Shia “popular mobilization forces” (PMFs) are attacking US facilities in Iraq and US forces are occasionally responding. Iran has launched missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan’s capital, Erbil, targeting the house of the US Consul General. Even added altogether it won’t amount to the 1000 deaths required to designate something a “war,” but we are clearly on the slippery slope to the long-feared wider war in the Middle East.

Iran is benefiting

This should not be welcome in the US. Ukraine is already absorbing vast quanitities of US military supplies. Deterring China from attacking Taiwan is stretching not only logistics but also US naval operations. Israel’s war on Gaza is requiring enormous amounts of US and European materiel, without any prospect of improving US security.

But the enemy gets a vote. Iran may not be directing all of what Hizbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and the Iraqi PMFs are doing. But Tehran has supplied the means and resistance ideology that motivates them all. Iran is hoping to force the US out of the region. So far, that isn’t working. The US has deployed additional naval and other assets to the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Tehran is enriching more uranium and moving closer to nuclear weapons capability. No more than a few weeks would be required for Iran to construct an atomic weapon, assuming its scientists have already done the necessary designs, experimented with the required conventional explosives, and acquired the needed non-fissile material.

My former dean, Eliot Cohen, argues that the way to prevent the wider war is to levy a devastating attack on the Houthis, rather than the well-calculated proportional one the Biden Administration has so far administered. I’m not sure he is wrong, but it will take a more reckless president than Biden to pursue that course. That is something neither Eliot nor I would welcome.

Regaining advantage

The US needs somehow to regain a more advantageous position in order to shape the course of events. The place to start is Gaza. Biden should end the war there by reading the riot act to Prime Minister Netanyahu: no more weapons if the killing of civilians continues at anything like previous pace.

A pause in the large-scale attacks on Gaza would give the Israelis an opportunity to unseat the unpopular Netanyahu and put in his place a government that prioritizes the fate of the hostages, humanitarian conditions inside Gaza, and negotiations with the Palestinians. Such a government would also continue targeted raids on Hamas leadership and militants who participated in the October 7 attack on Israel. But it would end the disproportionate bombing of civilian areas and open Gaza up to both commercial and humanitarian shipment of goods and services.

Such a pause would give diplomats an opportunity to pursue the possibility of an agreement between Lebanon and Israel on outstanding, but relatively minor, border issues, thus depriving Hizbollah of a major rallying cry. It would also relieve pressure on Iraq to evict American bases. As for the Houthis, they have proven resilient. No quick blow is going to make them go away. We are in for a long effort to deprive them of the military capabilitiues they have amassed in recent years.

Good fortune

We should count our blessings. China is in economic trouble and in no position to attack Taiwan anytime soon. The Taiwanese election yesterday of a pro-independence leader will provoke lots of Beijing rhetoric, and many planes crossing the Taiwan Strait median line, but no actual military attack.

Moscow has celebrated the European and American blockage of assistance to Ukraine, but we can hope that is temporary. It is vital that Kyiv get whatever it needs to chase Russian forces from all of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. That alone would greatly enhance American leverage worldwide.

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