Law, escalation, planning
I get a lot of messages from the Jewish organization J Street, which I support. I thought this one might be informative to those who wonder what liberal American Jews are thinking (I’ve inserted the headings, because my software likes them):
Daniel,
The entire J Street community has been profoundly, deeply and often personally affected by the atrocities committed by Hamas on October 7. In an unspeakably painful moment, we’ve rallied together to support each other and to support communities on the ground.
In this exceedingly dark hour, we’ve been deeply moved by the support from President Biden and leaders across the political spectrum.
When the President visited Israel last week, he delivered a strong, heartfelt and meaningful show of support for Israelis at a time of immense national grief and trauma. His visit and his words were warmly received by Israelis and by the American Jewish community.
In the days and weeks since Hamas’ heinous attack, J Street has strongly supported Israel’s right to defend its citizens in accordance with international law and to bring the perpetrators to justice.
Hostages and Gaza civilians
The hostages remain at the forefront of our concerns, and we urge accelerated efforts by the international community to ensure their safe and speedy return. Images of families filled with relief as the first hostages were released have provided a rare glimpse of hope in an otherwise dismal moment.
We’ve also borne witness to immense destruction and suffering in Gaza. Families desperate to find shelter from air strikes, cut off from access to food, water, medicine and electricity. We are deeply concerned by the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe developing for its civilian population, and are pressing for American leadership to save lives and prevent further suffering.
The days ahead pose challenging decisions for Israel and for the United States. There aren’t easy answers, or fully satisfactory ones.
However, we must recognize that decisions made now – in the heat of the reaction to this horrific terror attack – will impact the safety and security of Israelis, Palestinians, the Middle East and the world for decades to come.
Below are considerations in the near-term regarding Israel’s response. In a few days, I’ll share more thoughts about the longer term.
Ground invasion
Undoubtedly, for days now, you’ve been seeing the same blaring headlines that I have: “Ground Invasion Imminent.”
The Biden administration – wisely, I believe – has reportedly been stressing caution and patience. We know that whatever course of action Israel takes next will have significant ramifications for the safety of hostages in Gaza, potential escalation on other fronts and, of course, the safety and wellbeing of Palestinian civilians.
Many with direct experience making tough decisions in such situations have written wise commentaries in recent days urging caution and thoughtfulness, reflecting on the US experiences during the “War on Terror”: Former President Barack Obama. Israel’s most senior retired military commanders. Members of Congress with direct experience in Iraq like Seth Moulton and others.
As journalist Zack Beauchamp recently wrote in Vox: As a true friend of Israel, the United States should help Israel “make the right choice where America made the wrong one.”
So, what does that look like?
Abide by international law
First: As President Obama wrote this week, every conceivable effort must be made to avoid civilian casualties, support humanitarian assistance, and fully abide by international law.
“Upholding these values is important for its own sake, because it is morally just and reflects our belief in the inherent value of every human life,” the former president wrote. “Upholding these values is also vital for building alliances and shaping international opinion – all of which are critical for Israel’s long-term security.”
Inflicting unnecessary suffering on civilians in Gaza is morally wrong and deeply upsetting. Many of the scenes that we have seen from Gaza so far – of residential buildings and city blocks destroyed, of entire families killed, of hospitals barely functioning without sufficient electricity, medicine or water – are horrifying to all of us. The prospect that the toll taken on civilians could grow even worse going forward under an intensified military operation is heartrending.
We also know, from America’s own experience, that continued devastation and suffering in Gaza will also weaken support for Israel when it needs it most.
Humanitarian surge
J Street strongly supports diplomatic efforts to protect civilians and deliver a much-needed “humanitarian surge” – including unimpeded humanitarian corridors, turning water and electricity back on, designating safe zones and heeding the advice of aid agencies.
We agree with Secretary of State Blinken, who told the UN Security Council this week that “humanitarian pauses must be considered” for purposes of protecting civilians, ensuring them access to vital aid and helping them get out of harm’s way.
As President Obama noted, the Netanyahu government’s decision to cut off food, water and electricity to a captive civilian population is wrong on its face and threatens to backfire – not only worsening the growing humanitarian crisis, but eroding regional and global support for Israel while playing into the hands of its enemies.
The appalling rhetoric from senior Israeli leaders who have called for “bombing without distinction,” “destruction rather than accuracy” or even that the children of Gaza have “brought this upon themselves” must also be forcefully rejected.
Given that many members of the current Israeli government have consistently promoted extremist and incendiary rhetoric, ideology and policy during their tenure, a strong tempering influence from the United States is vitally important.
As President Biden has made clear: The civilians of Gaza are not responsible for the actions of Hamas and must not be made to pay the price for their crimes.
Prevent a conflict spiral
Second: We must be clear-eyed that wars – once started – can be difficult to contain. Every effort must be made by the US government and all parties concerned to prevent the conflict from spiraling.
No matter how well planned, a large-scale invasion risks triggering a spiral of escalation that could lead to a multi-front war: Gaza in the south, Hezbollah in the north and explosive violence in the occupied West Bank. Other regional actors could be drawn in. Most unhelpfully, we hear right-wing forces in the United States – determined not to learn the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan – continuing to press for escalation with Iran.
The United States is rightly working urgently to prevent and deter regional escalation. We strongly support those diplomatic and other efforts.
J Street has also urged Israeli authorities to do more to stop a brutal and reprehensible surge in settler and military violence against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank – including over 120 violent settler attacks and 28 children killed – which risk triggering further chaos.
This is the moment for the United States to make clear that it expects Israel to intercede to prevent settler attacks against civilians, to ensure that live ammunition is not used against civilian protesters and to ensure security forces do not participate in revenge attacks against civilians.
Plan for the day after
Third: As former Marine and current Congressman Seth Moulton wrote for CNN: “The lesson America quickly learned in Iraq and Afghanistan was that you have to have a plan for the day after.”
If the Israeli military “simply kill a lot of Hamas terrorists and leave Gaza a smoldering mess,” he wrote, “they’ll have the same problem they do today” – and may succeed only in radicalizing more terrorists. It’s a lesson we learned painfully with both the insurgency in Iraq that metastasized as ISIS and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
“Nobody wants to see five-year-old Palestinian kids killed in the crossfire with Hamas, especially if their deaths only recruit more terrorists,” Moulton wrote. “And nobody wants to see five-year-old Israeli kids dying, in the same forever war, 20 years from today.”
The United States – as Israel’s central security partner – can and must use our influence to guide Israel’s leaders toward sober judgments, to protect the safety and freedoms of Israelis and Palestinians and to chart a better course forward.
What is the alternative?
In the view of many experts, the short-term tactical goal for Israel’s military should be a focused, targeted counterterrorism operation aimed squarely at the Hamas leadership and fighters responsible for the October 7 attack. Such an operation would aim to incapacitate Hamas, bring the perpetrators to justice and minimize civilian and IDF casualties by limiting the scope of ground operations.
In the next few days, I will share further specific thoughts on what the President could do to articulate a vision for the future that is realistic, principled and strategic.
As Israel grapples with ongoing grief and trauma, hostages remain in captivity, Israeli soldiers prepare for a possible ground operation and those with loved ones in Gaza remain terrified for their safety, our shared pro-Israel, pro-peace, pro-democracy voice is more important than ever in shaping the United States’ response.
We’ll continue to support and listen to each other as we share perspectives and ideas, striving for grace and respect. We’ll continue working to support communities on the ground in Israel and our pro-peace, pro-democracy allies in the region.
And we’ll continue to bring expert voices, nuanced analysis and considered policy recommendations to leaders in Washington.
A better future is still possible. J Street will continue to dedicate ourselves to the hard work necessary to get there.
Please, don’t hesitate to respond with your thoughts or questions.
Yours,
Jeremy Ben-Ami
President, J Street
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Stevenson’s army, October 24
– Jake Sullivan has a big think piece in Foreign Affairs, updated to mention Gaza.
-WOTR article challenges administration’s legal authority to commit forces in Israel, and links to recent HFAC hearing.
-France is sending weapons to Armenia.
– US promises to defend Philippine ships threatened by China
– WaPo reports CIA links to Ukraine spies.
– Turkish parliament gets Sweden NATO bill
– Trump advisors suggest NATO pullout
– CSIS has big report criticizing CISA
– Writer suggests rule change to get around Tuberville holds
– Vanity Fair has new book chapter on Operation Warp Speed, a real success story.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A failed terrorist provocation
A month ago, the Kosovo police foiled an attempted insurrection near a Serb Orthodox monastery Banjska, in the northern part of the country. A 51-page preliminary investigative report by the Republic of Kosovo is now circulating in the US government. Here is my plagiaristic summary. The original is better.
Conclusions first
- A paramilitary group of about 80 cadres recruited, trained and specifically designated for the purpose carried out the attack, with heavy arms Serbia provided.
- Belgrade’s goal was to instigate a Kosovo police response to firing from the Banjska monastery that could be used to justify a Serbian military intervention, allegedly to save endangered Serb citizens of Kosovo and pilgrims from Serbia.
- The plan entailed challenging, threatening, and potentially killing members of KFOR as well as Kosovo police, who lost one officer to a land mine.
- The chain of command included the Serbian state, whose President and security structures are culpable legally and morally.
- Dozens of perpetrators who escaped to Serbia are now protected from justice by Belgrade.
- There is a risk of repetition , as evidenced by the continued offensive posture of Serbian security forces surrounding Kosovo as well as the intense pro-invasion propaganda campaign still ongoing inside Serbia.
A few details of the investigation
The Serbian Armed Forces trained the paramilitary perpetrators over a period of two years at army and Interior Ministry bases. US-donated Humvees were used in the training. The Kosovo authorities have captured detailed plans based on military-supplied maps for the paramilitaries to open routes into Kosovo for weapons and supplies from Serbia. Serbian special forces and drones entered into Kosovo in the leadup to the insurrection, and medical ambulances transported weapons into the country.
The operation was led by Milan Radoicic, then deputy leader of the Belgrade-sponsored political party in Kosovo, a close associate of Serbian security officials, and a political ally of President Vucic. The paramilitaries used vehicles disguised with KFOR labels and false license plates. The plan included attracting the Kosovo Police by blocking roads, firing on them from the Banjska monastery, and provoking an attack that would serve as a pretext for Serbian military intervention.
The paramilitaries were well-equipped with military-grade weapons almost entirely made in Serbia. This included 66 AK-47s, 9 machine guns, 6 sniper rifles, 41 anti-tank rocket launchers, 2 automatic grenade launchers, 8 anti-tank mines, and 122 hand grenades, along with the appropriate ammunition and over 350 units of explosives. Documentation that some of these weapons were definitely supplied by Serbia is available.
Serbia continues to promote violence against Kosovo
Since September 24, Serbia has continued to threaten violence against Kosovo. It has celebrated the paramilitaries involved in the foiled plot and declared a day of mourning for the three terrorists who were killed. High production value graffiti in Serbia, including in soccer stadiums, and in the four northern municipalities in Kosovo with Serb majorities, has promoted the idea that Serbian forces will soon return to Kosovo. Serbian armed forces are still on high alert.
President Vucic and media he controls uses hate speech in referring to Kosovo, its political leaders, and Albanians in general. Ambitions to create the “Serbian world,” a pale copy of Putin’s “Russian world” that includes Ukraine, are rife. Serbia has dramatically increased its military exercises with Russia. Belgrade intimidation of Serbs in northern Kosovo to prevent cooperation with Pristina continues, as do covert operations against Kosovo institutions.
It didn’t start on September 24 and it didn’t end then
There were four prior attacks in northern Kosovo since December 2022. The same units and some of the same personnel were involved, including in the attack on KFOR troops in May. None of the perpetrators have been returned to Kosovo to face charges. They are sheltered by the Serbian state and remain available to conduct future violent operations. So far, there has been no diplomatic action taken against Belgrade by either the US or EU, which will encourage Vucic to pursue future destabilization efforts in order to justify Serbian military intervention in Kosovo.
The precise Russian role in the September 24 plot is still unclear, but Russian backing for escalating Serbian efforts to challenge Western resolve in the Balkans is apparent. The Russians will not have failed to notice the lack of Western response. Moscow and Belgrade will amplify their efforts.
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Stevenson’s army, October 23
– Atlantic writer sees end of Netanyahu, notes his policy of “propping up Hamas.”
– Haaretz says the PM is blaming the IDF.
-Economist sees Israel’s window of legitimacy for responding shrinking.
– Politico reports on pro-Israel lobbying.
– Some Members may be primaried over Israel.
– CNN poll shows support for Israel.
– WSJ says ground attack has high costs.
– Dan Drezner applauds new Venezuela policy.
– Tom Edsall reviews views on constitutional flaws
-Politico says conservatives are now attacking cyber’s CISA.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 22
-WSJ has extraordinary video analysis demonstrating Gaza rocket struck hospital.
– NYT reveals Ukraine commando raids in Crimea.
– WaPo tells how a woman rose to top ranks in CIA
– FP tells of small country intelligence operations
-WaPo tells how Israelis countered Russian info ops in Africa
– WaPo reports on Hamas military manuals
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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What Serbia and Croatia are trying to do
I spoke via Zoom at Krug 99 in Sarajevo this morning. Here is pretty much what I said:
- It is a pleasure to join you, if only virtually, for this Circle 99 session. It has been more than 25 years since I attended one in person, though I enjoyed the privilege virtually two years ago.
- I was focused then mainly on the political and constitutional situation inside Bosnia and Herzegovina. That has not improved.
- I’ll again focus today on Bosnia, but in the regional context. And I’ll get, as I know many would like, to the question of American policy towards the end.
The Serbian world in Montenegro…
- The primary regional factor is Belgrade, which is trying to create what some there now term the “Serbian world.” President Vucic wants to control the political fate of Serbs in neighboring countries. That includes not only Bosnia and Herzegovina but also Montenegro and Kosovo.
- He is using his security and intelligence forces, financing, disinformation, and the Serbian Orthodox Church to overcome resistance and ensure that serious, Western-aligned democracies cannot emerge on Serbia’s periphery.
- He has been most successful in Montenegro, where he exploited genuine unhappiness with President Djukanovic and the long-ruling DPS. That discontent empowered an avowedly pro-European opposition that is reaching out to Belgrade and its proxies for support.
- The irony is that Djukanovic presided, with dignity, over a mostly peaceful and entirely constitutional transition that is bringing his hypocritical opponents to power.
…and Kosovo
- In Kosovo, Vucic’s overt political effort to control the Serb population is conducted through the Lista Srpska. But he also uses the Serbian secret services and their allies in organized crime to ensure that the Serb population, especially in the north, stays loyal to Belgrade, not Pristina.
- We saw that combination at work September 24, when Lista Srpska and the secret services attempted an armed uprising. The Kosovo police and KFOR foiled that.
- Vucic since then has leaned heavily in the direction of Russia and China. He no doubt fears that the US and Europe will demand that he apologize for the September 24 insurrection and promise it won’t happen again.
- The media campaign against Albanians inside Serbia is intense, as is Vucic’s use of the media to support his increasingly autocratic role.
As well as in Bosnia and Herzegovina
- In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Vucic has in Milorad Dodik someone who is part proxy and part rival. Belgrade backs Dodik’s efforts to separate the Serbs from Sarajevo authority. But Vucic won’t want Dodik to fulfill his ambition of declaring independence.
- That would put Serbia in a difficult position. It could not recognize Republika Srpska for fear of the European and American reaction. Vucic will be careful not to allow Dodik to outflank his ethnonationalism by declaring independence and demanding annexation of Republika Srpska by Serbia.
- That said, Vucic has edged closer to Dodik as he moves increasingly into the orbit of Russia and China. Preventing successful democratic governance in Bosnia and obstructing its path towards Europe are Vucic’s aim. Dodik serves that purpose well, so long as he doesn’t go the final mile.
Croatia’s role
- What about Croatia? How does it fit into this picture?
- Zagreb, like Belgrade, wants control over its co-ethnic population inside Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is willing to cooperate with Belgrade to that end, cozying up as well as Moscow.
- Zagreb’s objective, however, is not secession but the third entity, de facto if not de jure. It wants political representation of Croats inside Bosnia and Herzegovina loyal to Zagreb, not Sarajevo.
- The irony here is that the Bosnian Croats did not ask for the third entity at Dayton, because they got a better deal: half the Federation and one-third of the state.
- But they failed to take political advantage of that situation and now are looking to exploit the High Representative to achieve their maximalist political goals.
The HiRep at risk
- His electoral decisions have favored Zagreb’s ambitions. He has ignored the European Court of Human Rights decisions that would counter group rights, like Sejdic-Finci and Kovacevic.
- At the same time, the HiRep has made himself persona non grata with Milorad Dodik, by countering Dodik’s efforts to remove Republika Srpska from Sarajevo’s authority.
- The failure of the international community to respond effectively to Dodik’s challenge risks vitiating the HiRep’s role and ending any hope that he can play a constructive role in dismantling the group rights that plague Bosnia’s politics.
- This is nub of the issue for both Serbia and Croatia. Zagreb and Belgrade want group rights and the constitutional provisions to protect them to prevail over individual rights, thus ensuring a permanent hold on power for ethnic nationalists friendly to Croatia’s and Serbia’s interests.
Washington and Brussels are not the answer
- That brings me to Washington and Brussels. The Americans and Europeans, who for a long time regretted the group rights granted at Dayton and backed the European Court decisions against them, are no longer fighting that fight.
- They seem content to allow Bosnia to wallow in its current dysfunctional state, so long as no major violence erupts.
- Lenin asked a good question: “what is to be done?”
- My colleagues and I in the diminished Balkan-watching world in Washington will continue to speak up for individual rights, for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and against Serbia and Croatia’s efforts to monopolize politics among their co-nationals inside Bosnia.
- But the center of gravity of Bosnian politics is properly inside Bosnia, not outside it.
Bosnia is the center of gravity
- The media and civil society can play a vital role. I’d like to see them mobilize as many voices as possible to press for implementation of the European Court decisions.
- Anything that reduces the salience of group rights and increases the commitment to individual rights would constitute progress.
- Ideally, the Bosnian state should have all the authority required to negotiate and implement the acquis communautaire while everything else is delegated to the municipalities (opstine).
- I’d like to see the entities and cantons, which are the power-sharing embodiment of ethnic identity and division, gradually disempowered and eventually eliminated.
- But that is an American’s version of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is your vision that counts.
- Democracy is not an easy system to manage. It requires courage and commitment. The majority of Bosnians showed lots of courage and commitment during the war.
- I hope they can summon that same spirit in 2023 and beyond.
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