Advantage North Korea
I’m old enough to remember when Donald Trump tweeted this:
Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
Many good conversations with North Korea-it is going well! In the meantime, no Rocket Launches or Nuclear Testing in 8 months. All of Asia is thrilled. Only the Opposition Party, which includes the Fake News, is complaining. If not for me, we would now be at War with North Korea!
We were supposed to believe his Singapore meeting with Kim Jong-un last month had changed everything: North Korea was tamed and America was safer.
Now Secretary of State Pompeo is claiming progress in the talks with North Korea, while Pyongyang is describing the US attitude as “regrettable.” That should not be surprising. Trump is simply lying. No one but him ever threatened war with North Korea, which would be catastrophic for our South Korean allies and possibly also for the US. And no one ever suggested the North Koreans had bought into complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization except his Administration, which will eventually have to accept that it is not going to happen. The flim-flam president is at it again, pushing lies and planning to bait and switch.
The contrast with the Iran nuclear deal couldn’t be greater. President Obama’s team negotiated a detailed, comprehensive agreement with Tehran, one that the Iranians have assiduously implemented, as confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Trump nevertheless withdrew from it. So why, pray tell, would the North Koreans ever want to fall into that trap? Nor is the Trump Administration, which can’t even keep track of the immigrant children it detains, capable of mounting the kind of expertise required to negotiate a serious technical agreement. Is there a single presidential appointee with any advanced level of scientific or engineering knowledge? Are the climate deniers and creationists going to be able to deal with North Korea’s nuclear and missile experts?
Of course there are lots of capable career experts in the government bureaucracy, but tell me one area in which this Administration has relied on them for help. Experts are in fact leaving the government in droves, because they see no point in sitting around while Trump dismantles policies on climate change, nuclear nonproliferation, biomedicine, pandemic diseases, and other important technical issues. The experts who helped Presidents Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Obama wrestle with these issues over the past three decades aren’t going to sit around waiting for Trump to see the light.
Trump is used to bargaining with people–many of them small contractors who worked on his building projects–whom he can stiff at will. There is always someone else who can put up dry wall. There is no alternative to negotiating with the North Koreans, who clearly understand the Americans better than we understand them. Kim snookered Trump in Singapore into granting him an appearance on a par with the American president, in return for nothing. It is clear the North Koreans have not tested missiles or nuclear weapons because they had come to the end of their protocols. When and if they need to test again, they will surely do so, claiming that Trump has not lived up to his promises of relaxing sanctions.
It’s not quite game/set/match. But it is definitely ad out. North Korea is several steps ahead of Donald Trump’s America.
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Fixing democracy
Fitim Gashi of Pristina daily Koha Ditore asked some questions last week. I answered:
1. Having in mind the growing alarm about the wave of populism sweeping the Europe and USA, as well as the erosion of democratic safeguards in particular European states, such as Hungary, Poland, what can be said about the state of democracy today? Is it fair to say that democracy is in decline?
A: Democracy is facing serious challenges, but it still has capacity to respond to them. Leaders need to listen more carefully to citizens and try to represent them more fully.
2. Why is this happening? Which are the main factors contributing to the decline of the democracy?
A: It seems to me trade and immigration are the main issues, though in many countries corruption is a contributing factor. We should also recognize that racism and xenophobia are important contributing factors.
3. What can be done to prevent the situation from deteriorating?
A: Reducing the negative impacts of trade and immigration on relatively uneducated people in America and Europe would help. So too would more vigorous defense of a trading regime that has raised living standards and greater recognition that both America and Europe need young workers. I really don’t know what to do about racism and corruption. Exposing them may be the best antiseptic.
4. As it was recently seen in Hungary and Turkey, as well as in many cases in the past, leaders who have shown disregard about democratic norms have been reelected through popular vote. How can that be interpreted? Are people losing faith in democracy?
A: In Turkey, the election was certainly not free or fair. I hesitate to comment on Hungary, because I don’t follow it as much. Demagogues are using democratic forms to enhance their power. The only things that can stop that are the voters, parliaments, the media, and the courts.
5. In Balkans, we have leaders who are in power for decades, while the West, preoccupied with its problems, seems to have chosen “stabilitocracy” over democracy. Do you expect this situation to continue?
A: All countries deal with leaders who have come to power through the constitutional system in place, which is true of the current Balkan leaders. Only occasionally, when there is evidence of gross malfeasance, do the US and Europe weigh in against them, as they did recently in Macedonia against Gruevski. The only conscious choice I know for stability over democracy is in Bosnia, where Germany and the UK initiated a reform effort aimed at preventing the Americans from attempting one more time to change the Dayton constitution to make it more democratic.
6. Which is your opinion about the state of democracy in USA itself?
A: I think we have systemic problems. Our constitution favors states with smaller populations, enabling election of a president like Trump (and George W. Bush in his first term) who failed to win a majority of votes. We also have grossly gerrymandered Congressional districts that enable the Republicans to gain many more seats than the Democrats. And we have allowed Russian interference in our elections. These problems are unlikely to get fixed anytime soon. People who want change are going to have to come out to vote.
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This is not a loyal American
President Trump, noting that Putin is KGB, says he’s fine:
I might even end up having a good relationship [with Mr Putin], but they’re going ‘well, president Trump, be prepared, president Putin is KGB’, this and that…Do you know what? Putin’s fine, he’s fine, we’re all fine, we’re people. Will I be prepared? Totally prepared – I have been preparing for this stuff my whole life, they don’t say that.
Even the conservative Heritage Foundation, one of the organizations that helped assemble the list of his possible Supreme Court nominees, is warning that Trump is wrong:
Things to remember before
@realDonaldTrump travels to Europe: -Russia is the aggressor—Ukraine is the victim -Crimea belongs to Ukraine -NATO & US troops in Europe serve our national interests -Europeans must spend more on defense -Putin’s track record shows he can’t be trusted
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Pompeo is in Pyongyang, trying to turn a vague one-page statement from the Singapore summit into a serious plan for denuclearization of North Korea. That would require first an inventory of their nuclear and missile programs as well as years if not decades to dismantle them. There isn’t much chance it is really going to happen. Kim Jong-un is continuing to expand his missile and nuclear capacities, even as Trump was announcing that the danger has passed. There is no record of the North Koreans telling the truth about their strategic weapons, which they regard as guaranteeing the survival of their regime.
As if that were not enough, the US kicked off its trade war with China today, provoking the anticipated (and permitted under international rules) retaliation. So US exports to China now face more serious barriers, while the price of imports from China to American consumers will rise. Both moves hurt core Trump constituencies: agriculture and manufacturing. The trade war also means that China will not maintain strong sanctions on North Korea.
On the home front, the Administration will fail to meet a court-ordered deadline to reunite migrant children with their parents, as it appears to have no idea which children belong with which parents. Even when it succeeds, it hopes to hold even asylum-seeking parents and children together in prison, not free them pending court hearings (for which most asylum-seekers in fact do appear). To boot, EPA Administrator Pruitt has finally resigned. He faced 15 or so ethics investigations, most due to his use of public office for private gain. That is the textbook definition of corruption, though no doubt he’ll drag out the proceedings and eventually be pardoned.
While Trump addresses adoring crowds that cheer his bravado, the United States is declining rapidly in the world’s estimation, especially among America’s friends. Our European allies are girding themselves for the upcoming NATO summit, where Trump is expected to make it clear he has little regard for them (as he did at the recent G7 meeting). They in turn will do everything they can to maintain the nuclear deal with Iran, straining the Alliance further. Trump has abandoned America’s friends in southern Syria, putting Israel and Jordan at risk. His move of the US embassy to Jerusalem has effectively killed any hope of progress with the Palestinians for the foreseeable future.
Relative American power was bound to decline as other countries prosper and acquire more advanced technology. Trump is accelerating that process by abandoning allies, cozying up to adversaries, weakening America’s moral standing, and damaging America’s exporters as well raising prices for its consumers. The President has visited golf clubs more than 100 times while in office but has not once visited US troops in a war zone. What more evidence do we need that he is not a loyal American?
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American independence compromised
All you need to know on July 4, 2018 about American independence is that a bipartisan report confirms Russian interference in the 2016 US election. The Senate Intelligence Committee has confirmed the January 2017 intelligence community assessment that
- Moscow in 2016 escalated its long-standing effort to undermine the US-led liberal democratic order;
- Putin ordered an influence campaign that sought to support Donald Trump and hurt Hillary Clinton;
- The campaign included cyber operations, in particular against the Democratic National Committee.
The Committee also suggested that assertions about Moscow-run propaganda in the assessment had not been appropriately updated from 2012 and that historical context on Russian efforts in the original intelligence assessment was thin, but that nevertheless the assessment was “sound.”
When this report was released, a 100% Republican (that’s unusual) Codel was in Moscow to meet with Foreign Minister Lavrov (President Putin let it be known he didn’t have time for them). Senator Shelby of Alabama told the Russians, without raising Russian interference in the election:
We don’t necessarily need to be adversaries.
True enough, in the abstract and at a friendly moment. But definitely not what you want to be saying on the day your colleagues in the Senate, on both sides of the aisle, have concluded that we are in fact adversaries, because Russia saw fit to attack the United States.
Of course they had their reasons. They didn’t like Hillary, whom Putin blamed for fueling anti-government demonstrations in 2011 and 12. Trump in 2016 hired a Russian agent as his campaign manager. His real estate empire depends heavily on Russian money. Several of his foreign policy advisers were close to the Russians, including son-in-law Jared Kushner and future, if briefly, National Security Adviser Michael Flynn.
Collusion is not really the issue. There is no need to collude if you and your staff agree with the Russians on most things. Shelby wasn’t colluding, he was just kowtowing. Trump doesn’t really care if Putin was trying to undermine the liberal democratic order, because he is against it too. You might expect however a bit of embarrassment when it turns out the Russians have hacked your opponents and supported your candidate’s election.
Not from Trump, who plans to meet one-on-one to start his summit with Putin July 16. This is a big and dangerous moment. Mike McFaul, President Obama’s ambassador to Moscow, reminded us yesterday:
In last 2 weeks Trump has invited Russia to join G7, denied Russian interference in 2016 election, hinted at recognizing Crimean annexation, pulling out of Syria & reducing US troops in Germany. In return for these monumental concessions Trump has asked Putin to do…?
#Artofdeal
Trump is already turning over southern Syria to the Russians and Iranians, who are cooperating with the Syrian army in driving hundreds of thousands of people to take shelter near the borders with Israel and Jordan, causing these two American allies real concern. He can’t invite the Russians to rejoin the G7 without the other members agreeing, but the Pentagon is already studying withdrawal of US troops from Europe, which Trump claims is worse than China when it comes to trade. Just smaller, he said, though Europe’s economy is bigger than China’s.
The worst would be recognizing the annexation of Crimea, which would set off a string of partitions worldwide and help Putin to justify his occupation of parts of Georgia and Moldova. Kurt Volker, my very capable former colleague at SAIS who is now the point man for the Administration on the Ukraine, quoted the White House spokesperson saying this yesterday:
“We do not recognize Russia’s attempt to annex Crimea… And our Crimea sanctions against Russia will remain in place until
returns the peninsula to
.”
That’s really good. Now all he has to do is to make it stick in Helsinki, where Trump will be freelancing and trying to impress his paymaster and comrade.
Sad to say, American independence on this July 4 is compromised, at the top.
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Peace picks July 2 – 15
1. Mexican Ambassador Discusses the Evolving U.S.-Mexico Relationship | Tuesday, July 3, 2018 | 11:30 am – 12:30 pm | Hudson Institute | Register Here
On July 3rd, Hudson Institute will host Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández, Ambassador of Mexico to the United States, for a discussion about the current state of U.S.-Mexico relations. The conversation will be moderated by Hudson Distinguished Fellow Walter Russell Mead.
The U.S.-Mexico relationship has recently faced new challenges. Immigration enforcement has intensified along the shared border; NAFTA renegotiations have progressed slowly, leading some in the Trump Administration to consider bilateral trade deals as an alternative approach with its North American partners; and new tariffs imposed on Mexican steel and aluminum have triggered retaliatory measures. Yet Mexico has long served as a strong regional trade ally and critical partner in efforts to combat narcotics trafficking. Voters in Mexico’s presidential elections on July 1st will likely be influenced by the rapidly evolving relationship between these two countries.
Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernandez was named Ambassador of Mexico to the United States on January 13, 2017 by President Enrique Peña Nieto. During a more than 15-year career as a public servant, Ambassador Fernandez has served under four Mexican presidents. Prior to his most recent appointment, he was the Managing Director of the North American Development Bank (NADB).
Speaker:
His Excellency Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández, Ambassador of Mexico to the United States
Moderator:
Walter Russell Mead, Distinguished Fellow, Hudson Institute
2. Stabilizing Sino-Indian Security Relations: Managing Strategic Rivalry After Doklam | Tuesday, July 10, 2018 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Carnegie Institute for International Peace | Register Here
The Doklam standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in the summer of 2017 coincided with an ongoing deterioration in bilateral relations, and accelerated pre-existing military competition. Frank O’Donnell provides a detailed analysis of Indian and Chinese nuclear and conventional ground force posturing, and illustrates darkening rival perceptions of these actions and their underlying strategic intentions. Join Carnegie for a discussion with O’Donnell on his new paper, Stabilizing Sino-Indian Security Relations, which proposes new measures to limit the recurrence of future Doklam-like episodes and their inherent risk of escalation. Copies of the paper will be available.
Speakers:
Sameer Lalwani: senior associate and co-director of the South Asia program at the Stimson Center.
Tanvi Madan: director of the India Project and fellow in the Project on International Order and Strategy in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution.
Frank O’Donnell: Stanton junior faculty fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, and a nonresident fellow in the South Asia program at the Stimson Center.
George Perkovich: Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
3. Senator Jeff Merkley on Violence and Humanitarian Response in Africa | Wednesday, July 11, 2018 | 9:00 am – 10:00 am | US Institute of Peace | Register Here
Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) recently returned from a five-country visit to Somalia, South Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to assess the region’s humanitarian crises while seeking to better understand their root causes. He held over 35 meetings with civil society, refugees living in camps, aid workers, government officials, and U.N. peacekeepers. During his visit, it became clear to Senator Merkley that U.S. diplomatic leadership, development aid, and humanitarian response are critical to addressing the root causes of conflict, climate change and corruption.
Senator Merkley will speak about Congress’ priorities on humanitarian- and conflict-related issues in Africa.
Speaker:
Senator Jeff Merkley, US Senator from Oregon, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Multilateral International Development, Multilateral Institutions, and International Economic, Energy, and Environmental Policy.
Moderator:
Nancy Lindborg, President, U.S. Institute of Peace.
4. Rethinking globalization: How do we rebuild support? | Wednesday, July 11, 2018 | 10:00 am – 11:30 am | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The Trump administration’s America First approach to economic policy has brought into stark relief the declining support among a growing number of Americans for what has come to be called “globalization.” But anti-globalization sentiment in the United States has broader support than the Trump base alone and reflects deeper social and economic drivers that policymakers have failed to address over time. Increasingly, Americans wonder what is in “globalization” for them. In today’s hyper-divisive environment, how can policymakers cut through the fractious political discourse and improve our understanding of the impact of an increasingly interconnected world on the American people?
Join AEI and the Brookings Institution for the launch of “Reconceptualizing Globalization,” a joint project to address globalization, anti-globalization, and the importance of engagement for all Americans.
Agenda:
9:45 am – Registration
10:00 am – Discussion
Participants:
Jared Bernstein, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
Daniel W. Drezner, Tufts University
Stephen J. Hadley, RiceHadleyGates
Merit Janow, Columbia University
Moderators:
Joshua Meltzer, Brookings Institution
Neena Shenai, AEI
11:10 am – Q&A
11:30 am – Adjournment
5. War or Deal? The Impact of Trade on the East Asian Economies | Thursday, July 12, 2018 | 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm | Stimson Center | Register Here
Whether a trade war or trade deal, U.S.-China trade disputes are guaranteed to have a spillover effect on the East Asian regional economies. The Trump administration’s recent escalation of tariffs on Chinese goods – with immediate reciprocation from Beijing – is already rippling through the global economy, but U.S. allies and partners in East Asia could be among the hardest hit. Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea have significant exposure to Chinese production, both as importers and exporters in the regional value chain. How does the ongoing trade war – or potential deals in the future – impact the interests of Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea? Join us for a panel discussion with Dr. Liu Shih-Chung, Vice Chairman at the Taiwan External Trade Development Council, Troy Stangarone, Senior Director at the Korea Economic Institute of America, Matthew Goodman, Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (invited), and Yun Sun, Co-Director of the East Asia Program at Stimson (moderator). A light lunch will be served.
6. Beheading Dragons: Streamlining China’s Environmental Governance | Thursday, July 12, 2018 | 2:00 pm – 4:00 pm | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In March, China’s National People’s Congress passed sweeping reforms to streamline environmental governance in order to more rapidly mitigate China’s crushing air, water, and soil pollution. Natural resource and pollution regulation have long been fragmented and managed by overlapping bureaucracies in China, leading to infighting and buck passing. The Chinese idiom “nine dragons rule the waters” (jiu long zhi shui) aptly captures how nine different government agencies have competed to regulate water. Under today’s reforms, China’s lead environmental watchdog—newly renamed Ministry of Ecological Environment (MEE)—will share water regulation with the Ministry of Water Resources, decreasing nine dragons to two. Another major dragon-slaying reform was to grant most regulatory power over climate change to MEE, a move that will require this newly reconfigured agency to become significantly more powerful than its earlier incarnation.
On July 12, CEF has invited three speakers to unpack the drivers and impacts of this major reform in China. Liu Zhuoshi (Environmental Law Institute) will detail how legal and regulatory authorities around pollution and climate issues are changing. He will also reflect on hurdles Chinese government faces to expand these reforms at the subnational level. Hu Tao (WWF – U.S.) will explore how the new MEE could act more holistically to manage complex pollution issues, like a better coordination on the joint management of air pollution and carbon emission regulations. Liu Shuang (Energy Foundation China) will reflect on the implication of China’s recent governance reforms on efforts to create a national carbon emissions trading systems and what other policies and institutional changes are needed to make it succeed.
Speakers:
Zhuoshi Liu, Staff Attorney at Environmental Law Institute.
Tao Hu, Director of the China program at World Wildlife Fund – US.
Shuang Liu, Director of the Low Carbon Economic Growth Program at Energy Foundation China.
Moderator:
Jennifer L. Turner, Director, China Environment Forum & Manager, Global Choke Point Initiative.
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Get ready for 2025
Marija Jovicevic of Podgorica daily Pobjeda asked some questions. I answered:
- Montenegro entered NATO one year ago. Do You think that we, in Western Balkans, live in safer region?
A: I think Montenegro’s NATO accession was an important step in the right direction that gave encouragement to others in the region. It signified that the doors of the Alliance and the EU are not closed.
2. Do You think that Montenegro and Western Balkan are visible for the US administration? What do we need to do to be more visible?
A: They are visible to the Vice President, which I think is sufficient. Frankly, I worry that President Trump might be tempted to upset the applecart and sow confusion in the Balkans, which would be a bad idea.
3. People in Montenegro are slowly losing patient that we will enter European union soon. In that regard, European Commission announced that Albania and Macedonia can open negotiations by the end of next year. Is this a clear message that enlargement policy is on hold?
A: No. I think it is a clear signal that enlargement is progressing, albeit at a slower pace than some might like. The right strategy is to do the necessary political and economic reforms as well as meet all the requirements of the acquis. Those who fully qualify by 2025 are doing the right thing.
4. Can we expect better relations with Russia? Do You think that danger from Moscow is over after everthing they tried to do on election day on 2016?
A: The danger is not over. Moscow still supports anti-constitutional, anti-NATO political forces in Montenegro. Better relations with Russia will develop once a pro-EU, pro-NATO opposition emerge that can hope to govern. Ending Putin’s hopes for destabilizing Montenegro is the best route to a good relationship with Moscow.
5. How do you see relations between USA and EU?
A: They are bad, both because of the US tariffs (and EU retaliation) and because of President Trump’s hostility to the EU. Brussels will need to be patient while the Americans find a way back to sanity.
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