Stevenson’s army, November 2
– NYT says Russian military [not in Putin presence] discussed use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
– WSJ says Saudis warn of Iranian attack.
– AP says even internal Chinese reports are censored.
– WaPo notes problems monitoring Ukraine use of US weapons. Here’s the official plan.
– RollCall says Dems may use reconciliation to raise debt limit.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 1
Apropos of nothing in particular:
Political Wire got hold of NBC’s briefing book.
AP explains new laws that might affect voting this year.
Military Times speculates on what GOP win could mean for defense.
WaPo says trade secondary to security in US view of China.
NYT has interactive report on how Russia is paying for its war.
Turkey & Hungary still haven’t approved NATO membership for Sweden and Finland.
China unhappy US plans to send B52s to Australia.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 31
– Punchbowl explains why crypto legislation is under the jurisdiction of the Senate Agriculture Committee.
– NYT has its last polls in key Senate races.
– NBC says Biden may slow military aid to Saudis.
– WaPo notes Russian gains in west Africa.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A lot to fear this Halloween, but…
The tragic and deadly stampede in Seoul during a Halloween celebration reminds us that there are real things to fear this year. Here is my list:
- Russian President Putin’s desperate efforts to prevent defeat in Ukraine.
- Chinese President Xi’s equally desperate efforts to exert hegemony in East Asia before his country’s inevitable demographic and likely economic decline.
- A delegitimized American election November 8, leading to more political violence.
- A deep recession that renews identity-based populism.
Putin’s last stand
Russian forces in Ukraine are retreating. The Ukrainian Army routed them in the northeast. In the south, the Russians are holding, but just barely. Ukraine’s air and sea drone attack on Russian naval ships in the Black Sea was a success. But it prompted Moscow to suspend the agreement that allowed export of Ukrainian grain. That will reduce revenue to Kyiv and jack up food prices in many of the most food insecure parts of the world.
Moscow has accused Kyiv of planning a “dirty bomb” attack using radioactive material. This is not a credible accusation, but it likely reflects what the Russians themselves are thinking of doing. The ultimate Russian threat is use of nuclear weapons. Putin has implied as much. That would bring a US conventional response of massive proportions. It can’t be ruled out, because the decisions of a single person are always subject to uncertainty. But it would spell the end of the Russian Army in Ukraine. Putin doesn’t want that.
Xi’s danger zone
Hal Brands and Michael Beckley argue in their new book that the threat from China to US regional and global hegemony will peak in the 2020s. After that Beijing will be preoccupied with internal demographic, social, and economic problems. Impending decline, after a long period of advance, will motivate Xi to challenge the US sooner rather than later. Xi consolidated autocratic power at the recent 20th Communist Party Congress. There will be few checks and balances to offset his inclinations.
We’ve seen in Ukraine how catastrophic the decisions of one man can be. We saw it also in George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq, which went virtually uncontested within the US. China has already swallowed Macau and Hong Kong. Xi wants to do likewise with Taiwan. But Taiwan is vital to the US capability of protecting its allies in East Asia, in particular South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. The US would need to do its best to support Taiwan. A China/Taiwan war will make the stakes in Ukraine, and the violence, seem relatively small.
The American election at risk
On November 8 the US will go to the polls to elect a new House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, in addition to many state and local officials. Right-wing election deniers are threatening the integrity of the election in many ways. These include disinformation about the process, threats against voters and election officials, and election officials and candidates who themselves are deniers and prepared to tip the balance. There is a real risk of violence if the election returns Democratic majorities to either the House or Senate, or both. There is also a real risk that Democrats will view Republican wins as illegitimate, though electoral violence from the left is less likely.
This election has significance beyond November 8. It is a dress rehearsal for 2024, when the election-denier-in-chief, Donald Trump, hopes to return as the Republican candidate for President. If he does, it is hard to picture a peaceful election. It is likely he will be indicted for national security violations and possibly also for tax fraud before 2024. Justified though those indictments may be, they will not improve the prospects for stability in the next two years.
An impending recession
The Federal Reserve Bank has been raising interest rates sharply to curb inflation, which has peaked around 8% on a yearly basis. While the US labor market is still tight and modest growth continues, the rest of the world is heading into a recession. The strong dollar, the war in Ukraine, and tension in East Asia are major factors. It is hard to believe that a global downturn won’t come home to roost in the US as well.
Inflation has already become a major issue in the November 8 election campaign. But if a recession hits in 2023, as many predict, the 2024 election could also be affected. Republican prospects will be better if Trump is not the candidate, but in any event American elections are often a referendum on the economy. An aging President Biden will find it hard to get re-elected if the downturn persists into 2024.
Scary Halloween
It’s a scary Halloween, even without the masks. But the defeat of President Bolsonaro in Brazil is a contrary indicator. Let’s hope it is an early indication that prospects are better than they appear!
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Stevenson’s army, October 30
– NYT says UFOs are foreign spies or trash.
– Brookings lists what election deniers want to change.
– WaPo says general who resisted sending army to Capitol denied promotion. [While article blames Biden, I suspect Hill people sent word of opposition.]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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You won’t hear sorry from me, Mr. President
Courtesy of Kosovo Online and Googletranslate:
The president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, commented on the statement of Danijel Server, a professor of international law [sic], which he gave to the Voice of America, which is that he “expects that Serbia will refuse the introduction of sanctions against Russia, and that it is more realistic for Serbia to turn to China than to the West.”
– Serbia is on the European road. I believe that Serbia will go more strongly on that path and that’s why there are people there who are less tired than me, and they will have my support, to pull Serbia towards Europe. As for our Chinese partners, we tell our Chinese friends that we are on the European path and we have no problem with that – said Vučić and added:
– With that, he wanted to say: the Serbs might leave the Russians, but they might look for someone else just so they wouldn’t be in the West. Well, this is the man who said that we are a danger in the region and that we are just waiting for someone to attack, on Putin’s order, but for 250 days now, that has not happened. I listened to those senseless stories and lies about Serbia and read and saw them in many Western countries.
But I’ve never heard the word “sorry” from anyone when none of that happens. We are continuing our path, the European path, and we will try to preserve our traditionally good relations with China and principled positions in relation to the conflict in Ukraine. In any case – Let Mr. Server do his job, we’ll do ours. May God bless him, and above all, may he bless our beautiful Serbia.
https://www.kosovo-online.com/vesti/politika/vucic-odgovorio-serveru-srbija-nastavlja-svoj-evropski-put-28-10-2022
Note two things:
- He confirms that Serbia will continue to refuse to impose sanctions on Russia. That is its “principled position,” though what principle it maintains I am not sure.
- He confirms that Serbia will keep its good relations with China. That is crucial now that Russia is pursuing partition of a sovereign state inconsistent with Serbia’s claim to Kosovo.
In any event, China wants to use Serbia as a trade and investment route into the EU. Of course it doesn’t object to Serbia’s European ambitions.
Vucic will implement the acquis, but not the Copenhagen criteria
The question is whether you can do these things and still pursue membership in the EU. The answer is yes. I expect Serbia to do its best to implement the acquis communautaire, which is necessary but not sufficient for EU membership. Much of the acquis consists of technical requirements, down to curb cuts on city streets. Vucic should have no problem with allowing Brussels to decide things Serbia has little capacity to deal with on its own.
The harder part is meeting the Copenhagen criteria and aligning its foreign policy with the EU. The former require a democratic political system, an open economy, free media, an independent judiciary, and respect for human rights. This is the part Vucic ignores. Serbia’s media are not free, its economy is far from open, its judiciary is not independent, and the political system is semi-autocratic.
On all of these dimensions, Serbia has gotten worse, not better, since Vucic first became President in 2017. In addition, his affection for what his minions term the “Serbian world” threatens the territorial integrity of three of Serbia’s neighbors: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo, each of which have Serb populations advocates of the “Serbian world” want annexed to Serbia. Doing that is not “good neighborly relations.” The fact that it has not yet led to large-scale violence should be no comfort.
The crucial test
The crucial test is likely to come in Kosovo. The Europeans and Americans have backed off the demand for immediate diplomatic recognition. They are now toying with the idea of transitional steps short of that. These would include recognition by the five non-recognizing EU countries, Kosovo membership in international organizations as well as creation of an Association of Serb-majority Municipalities inside Kosovo consistent with its constitution. This is sometimes referred to as a “two Germanies” scenario, but that is a misnomer. Both Germanies were members of the United Nations. Even without Belgrade’s opposition, Moscow and Beijing are certain to veto Kosovo’s UN membership.
Serbia is skilled at heaping blame for the lack of progress in the Pristina/Belgrade dialogue on Kosovo. The question is whether it will be prepared to go in a more accommodating direction. A clear indicator will be its response to Kosovo’s decision to phase in over three months the requirement that Serbs in Kosovo’s north start using Kosovo license plates rather than Serbian ones. The Americans wanted a longer delay–10 months. But Belgrade’s obligation to allow this long-delayed exertion of Pristina’s authority is clear.
No apologies
President Vucic is correct to call on me to do my job. What is it? To analyze the parts of the world I know well in realistic terms and to suggest ways of improving their prospects. That is what I did in the interview. The question is whether he is doing his. Is he taking Serbia in the direction of liberal democracy? Or is he hoping the EU will relax its standards and allow Serbia to accede without meeting the Cophenhagen criteria?
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