Tag: Al Qaeda

The proverbial hammer

Today greeted me with two contradictory headlines.  Fareed Zakaria urged a beginning to the end of the war on terror.  The Wall Street Journal reports an expansion of U.S. military authority to intervene in Mali and other parts of the Sahel against extremists, using drones and special ops teams, as we do in Yemen and Pakistan.

Fareed does not argue that the threat no longer exists, only that it can be dealt with in the normal legal framework rather than the extraordinary one put in place after 9/11.  Nor, I imagine, will the Pentagon ignore completely the non-military aspects of the fight against al Qaeda linked groups in Mali.  Our military officers are far too smart, and far too deeply committed to counter-insurgency, to ignore the social, economic and political matrix that is providing safe haven to extremists in northern Mali.

But the fact is that we are still over-emphasizing military responses to terrorism, rather than using preventive  and civilian approaches before the emergence of a clear threat.  Northern Mali, Tuareg grievances and various extremist groups existed well before this year.  Why were we ignoring them when it might have been cheaper and easier to prevent them from emerging in the first place?

We are still playing global whack-a-mole with terrorists rather than developing a strategy that makes them unwelcome in the poverty-stricken, relatively weak and conflict-prone states in which they find safe haven.  If  we are successful in Mali, they will no doubt find have someplace else.  Strengthening the indigenous capacity to resist and repress extremists is much more likely to produce results.  It is also likely to be far cheaper.  But it requires a more forward-looking, anticipatory and civilian-based strategy.

Instead, we are now deploying an additional Defense Intelligence agents abroad.  They will number 1600 in five years time.  This makes no sense, unless they will be doing intelligence collection that would be better done by civilians agencies.

If al Qaeda central still exists, someone there is surely calculating today where to move to when Mali gets too hot.  Northern Nigeria?  Niger?  Back to Somalia?  There are lots of options.  What we need is a comprehensive strategy that enables a preventive approach to strengthening local governance.  The military may recognize that as the requirement, but it is not their responsibility to meet it.  Our civilians–State Department and USAID as well as Justice and Commerce departments–need the resources and capabilities to undertaken expeditionary activities that today are possible only for the Defense Department.

We are the proverbial hammer that views everything as a nail.  Some jobs require a screwdriver.

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This week’s peace picks

December starts with a busy week.

 

1. Working in Fragile States:  Conflict Sensitivity and Peacebuilding with Impact, Monday December 3, 9:30 AM – 12:30 PM, Care International

Venue:  1825 I street NW, Washington, DC 20006, 12th Floor

Speakers:  Rachel Goldwyn, Jonathan White, Marshall Wallace, John Filson

Violent Conflict and ‘situations of fragility’ represent significant challenges for aid effectiveness. Applying traditional development approaches in an unchanged fashion in such contexts simply does not work. As is now often pointed out, no low income fragile or conflict-affected country has yet to achieve a single Millennium Development Goal. CARE invites you to a morning to discuss how NGOs and donors could be working more effectively in their peacebuilding, development and humanitarian responses in fragile states. First looking at conflict sensitivity and second examining how using theories of change in project design, monitoring and evaluation can improve the results of peacebuilding and other social mobilization programming. Two sessions will offer a platform for discussion, inter-agency learning, and the distribution of two new guides to the topics launched this year. Please feel free to come to one or boths essions, or to follow online via WebEx (for the URL, please email Betsy Deas bdeas@care.org). Refreshments will be served in the interval.

Session 1 – 9:30am-10:30am: ‘How to Guide’ to Conflict Sensitivity

Session 2 – 11:00am – 12:30pm: Defining Theories of Change Towards Peace; Peacebuilding with Impact

RSVP for this even to Betsy Deas at bdeas@care.org.

 

2.  Counterterrorism in Africa, Monday December 3, 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM, George Washington University’s Homeland Security Policy Institute

Venue:  The George Washington University, Duques Hall, School of Business, 2201 G Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, First Floor, Room 151

Speakers: Carter H. Ham, W. Russell Ramsey, Frank J. Cilluffo

On Monday, December 3rd, 2012, HSPI will host an event featuring General Carter F. Ham, Commander, U.S. Africa Command. General Ham will share his perspectives on the security challenges and opportunities facing the United States in Africa. He will address a range of issues affecting the regional security and stability of Africa, and will speak to developments in the region, including the terrorism threat in the Maghreb, the Sahel, and in the Horn of Africa.

Register for this event here.

 

3. US Policy in the Middle East in Obama’s Second Term, Tuesday December 4, 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM, SETA Foundation at Washington DC

Venue:  SETA Foundation at Washington DC, 1025 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 1106

Speakers:  Rob Malley, Leila Hilal, Trita Parsi, Erol Cebeci, Kadir Ustun

There is a broad range of expectations from President Obama’s second term. Those who expect a dramatically different Middle East policy in his second term cite the unsustainability of the cautious involvement of the first term. Others argue that the US involvement will continue to be highly risk-averse. While the US sorely wants to avoid the high price of missteps and misadventures, the regional turmoil and uncertainty continue unabated, as the regional order is shaken to its core. How will the American position in the region look like over the next four years? What are the vital American interests that may trigger a stronger involvement? How can the US work with regional actors to address stability and legitimate governments simultaneously? What are the prospects of a more robust US role in the Middle East?

Join us for a discussion on the US policy in the Middle East during the second Obama administration.

Register for this event here.

 

4. China and the Middle East: Rising Power and a Region in Turmoil, Tuesday December 4, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Middle East Institute

Venue:  Middle East Institute, 1761 N Street NW, Washington DC, 20036, Boardman Room

Speakers: Yitzhak Shichor, Dawn Murphy, Sam Chester

This program features three experts on China’s relations with the Middle East. The speakers will address two central questions: What challenges has China faced as a result of the political upheaval in the Arab World and the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program? In light of these challenges, how, and how well has China managed to protect and promote its interests in the region?  Join us for a discussion on this important and under-examined topic.

Register for this event here.

 

5. The Future of Humanitarian Action, Tuesday December 4, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, CSIS

Venue:  CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 Conference Room

Speakers:  Pierre Krähenbühl, William J. Garvelink

Please join ICRC’s Pierre Krähenbühl and CSIS’s Ambassador William J. Garvelink for a discussion of the ‘The Future of Humanitarian Action’, the latest edition of the International Review of the Red Cross, a quarterly publication published by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).

The international community is experiencing serious challenges to the humanitarian aid system. These include the direct targeting of humanitarian personnel, the rise of new actors, new ‘megatrends’ of disasters related to climate change and migration, advances in internet and communication technology and the militarization of aid. ICRC Director of Operations Pierre Krähenbühl will launch this latest edition of the Review, which explores these and other related themes, and complement it with his own global operational perspective. Ambassador Garvelink will then guide this important discussion about the future of humanitarianism

RSVP for this event to Farha Tahir at ftahir@csis.org.

 

6. Negotiating the Arab Spring: Policy Options, Tuesday December 4, 4:30 PM – 6:30 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS

Venue:  Johns Hopkins SAIS, Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Auditorium

Speakers: Fen Osler Hampson, Ellen Laipson, William Zartman, Regina Joseph, Floor Janssen

Fen Osler Hampson, distinguished fellow and director of the Global Security Centre for International Governance Innovation; Ellen Laipson, president of the Stimson Center; I. William Zartman, professor emeritus at SAIS; and Instituut Clingendael research fellows Regina Joseph and Floor Janssen will discuss this topic

RSVP for this event to itlong@jhu.edu.

 

7. Comparative Instability in the Balkans and the Middle East, Tuesday December 4, 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS

Venue:  Johns Hopkins SAIS, Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Auditorium

Speaker:  David Kanin

David Kanin, professorial lecturer in the SAIS European Studies Program and former senior analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, will discuss this topic. Note: The speaker’s comments will be off the record. A reception will follow the event in Room 812, Rome Building.

For more information contact ntobin@jhu.edu.

 

8. The Price of Freedom Denied: Religious Conflict in the 21st Century, Wednesday December 5, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS

Venue:   Johns Hopkins SAIS, Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Auditorium

Speaker:  Brian Grim

Brian Grim, senior researcher and director of cross-national data at the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion and Public Life, will discuss this topic.

RSVP for this event to slee255@jhu.edu.


9.  The Last Refuge: Yemen, Al-Qaeda, and America’s War in Arabia, Wednesday December 5, 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM, New America Foundation

Venue:  New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 400

Speakers:  Gregory Johnsen, Peter Bergen

Over the past few years, U.S. counterterrorism officials have frequently highlighted the blows America has dealt to al-Qaeda, especially those to its central command in Pakistan and Afghanistan. But officials also continue to warn about the persistent threat posed by al-Qaeda affiliates and sympathizers that have flourished in places such as Yemen and North Africa. Gregory Johnsen, a Ph.D. candidate at Princeton and one of the preeminent scholars of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, examines the organization’s last strongholds in his new book The Last Refuge: Yemen, Al-Qaeda, and America’s War in Arabia. In a recent piece for the New York Review of Books, Robert Worth called Johnsen’s book, “an authoritative and deftly written account of al-Qaeda’s Yemeni incarnation.”

Please join the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program for a conversation with Gregory Johnsen about The Last Refuge and the future of U.S. efforts to counter the violent ideology espoused by al-Qaeda supporters in Yemen

Register for this event here.

 

10. Annual Energy Outlook 2013, Wednesday December 5, 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS

Venue:  Johns Hopkins SAIS, Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 Kenny-Herter Auditorium

Speaker: Adam Sieminski

Adam Sieminski, administrator at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), will present the agency’s projections of U.S. energy supply, demand and prices to 2040 with the early release of the reference case projections from the “Annual Energy Outlook 2013.”

Members of the media who want to cover this event should contact Felisa Neuringer Klubes in the SAIS Communications Office at 202.663.5626 or fklubes@jhu.edu.

RSVP for this event to saisereglobal@jhu.edu.

 

11. U.S.-Israeli Missile Defense Cooperative Programs: What Is Next?, Wednesday December 5, 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Heritage Foundation

Venue:  Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE, Washington, DC 20002, Lehrman Auditorium

Speakers:  Gabriel Scheinmann, Baker Spring, Randy Jennings

This past July President Obama signed the United States-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act, which has been designed to give Israeli forces a qualitative edge over their current and future adversaries. The House version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes $948 million for all cooperative missile defense efforts between the United States and Israel. Specifically, the House version of the NDAA provides $680 million to fund Israel’s Iron Dome System through the fiscal years of 2012 through 2015. There is strong bipartisan congressional support for missile defense cooperation with Israel, which would enhance the overall defense posture for both countries.

Join us as our panel discusses the U.S.-Israeli cooperative missile defense efforts, the role of U.S. experience in cooperating on these issues, and the future of the Iron Dome system. Additionally, the panel will discuss the broader missile defense implications that the U.S. should consider given the success of Iron Dome operations.

Register for this event here.

 

12. Iranian Influence in the South Caucasus and the Surrounding Region, Wednesday December 5, 2:00 PM, The House Committee on Foreign Affairs

Venue:  The House Committee on Foreign Affairs, 2170 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC 20515

Speakers: Dan Burton, Ariel Cohen

 

13. An Evening with the Palestinian Ambassador, Wednesday December 5, 7:30 PM – 9:00 PM, George Mason University

Venue:  George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555

Speakers: Marc Gopin, Aziz Abu Sarah, Scott Cooper, Alex Cromwell

Please join the Center for World Religions, Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution as we welcome Palestinian Ambassador Areikat to come and speak to the S-CAR and Mason Community at the Arlington Campus. CRDC’s Co-Executive Director, Aziz Abu Sarah, will introduce the Ambassador, and Dr. Jamil Shami, President for the Middle East in Higher Education, Inc., will moderate the event.

RSVP for this event to crdc@gmu.edu.

 

14.  Weighing Benefits and Costs of International Sanctions on Iran, Thursday December 6, 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Venue:  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036

Speakers: Gregory Newbold, Thomas Pickering, William Reinsch, George Perkovich

The Iran Project will launch their new report “Weighing Benefits and Costs of International Sanctions Against Iran.” The Iran Project’s first report, “Weighing Benefits and Costs of Military Action against Iran,” was released in September 2012. It presented a balanced, non-partisan view of the pros and cons of using force to forestall Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon. This new paper takes the same balanced approach to assessing the benefits and costs of U.S. and U.S.-led international sanctions against Iran.

The paper does not advocate for or against sanctions; nor does it make specific policy recommendations. The writers and signers of this paper, who are senior experts from the national security and foreign policy communities, aim to provide an objective analysis that will contribute to informed debate about a key strategy for addressing one of the most critical security challenges facing the United States.

Lieutenant General Gregory Newbold, Carnegie’s George Perkovich, and William A. Reinsch will discuss the report’s findings. Ambassador Thomas Pickering will moderate.

Register for this event here.

 

15. FDD’s Washington Forum 2012: “Dictators & Dissidents: Should the West Choose Sides?”, Thursday December 6, 8:15 AM – 5:00 PM, Newseum

Venue:  Newseum, 555 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20001, please use the Freedom Forum entrance on 6th Street between Pennsylvania Avenue and C Street

Speakers:  Joseph Lieberman, Jon Kyl, Daniel Glaser, Robert Ford, Bret Stephens

We invite you to join us at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ (FDD) annual Washington Forum, taking place on Thursday, December 6 at the Newseum in Washington D.C. Speakers discussing this year’s theme, “Dictators and Dissidents: Should the West choose sides?” include Senators Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) and Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Daniel Glaser, Assistant Secretary of Treasury for Terrorist Financing, Ambassador Robert Ford, U.S. Ambassador to Syria, and Bret Stephens, Deputy Editor of The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page, along with a who’s who of experts from Congress, the intelligence and foreign policy communities and the diplomatic corps

Register for this event here.

 

16. New Authoritarians and the Challenge to Democracy, Thursday December 6, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, The International Forum for Democratic Studies at the National Endowment for Democracy

Venue:  1025 F Street NW, Suite 800, Washington, DC 20004

Speakers: William Dobson, Joshua Stacher, Christopher Walker

The world has changed and today’s autocrats are changing with it. Demonstrating resilience and a keen ability to adapt, leading authoritarian regimes are developing more subtle and sophisticated methods to retain power.  To suppress dissent, mass brutality has been replaced by selective safety inspections and tax investigations, as well as arbitrarily applied regulations designed to undercut the activities of independent civil society and opposition groups. New economic resources at the disposal of regimes in Beijing, Moscow, and Caracas have enabled them to bolster their authoritarianism. Meanwhile, the democratic world has been slow to acknowledge and respond to the emergence of these new, more nimble regimes.

Please join us for a discussion featuring William J. Dobson, author of The Dictator’s Learning Curve: Inside the Global Battle for Democracy, and Joshua Stacher, author of Adaptable Autocrats: Regime Power in Egypt and Syria, as they discuss how leaders in China, Egypt, Russia, Venezuela, and other countries have adapted to suppress democratic movements in their countries. Despite the initial excitement surrounding the recent upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa in particular, continuity—not wide-ranging political change—remains the hallmark of many of the world’s autocracies.

Register for this event here.

 

17. Untangling Maritime Disputes in Asia, Thursday December 6, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Venue:  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036

Speakers: Yann-huei Song, Edward Chen, James L. Schoff, Peter Dutton

Over the past six months, tensions have escalated in the South and East China Seas. Japan and China have grabbed headlines in a spat over China’s claims to the Japanese administered Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, while Taiwan has asserted its own claim in the region and proposed talks to settle the disputes. Yet these are only the latest in a long list of territorial disputes involving many countries and many competing claims. As events progress, what was already a complex and complicated issue over minuscule territories has drawn big power attention.

Two eminent Taiwanese scholars, Yann-huei Song and Edward I-hsin Chen, will join Carnegie’s James L. Schoff to discuss maritime disputes in the region, and prospects for their peaceful resolution. Peter Dutton, a noted expert on Chinese territorial claims at the U.S. Naval War College, will moderate.

Register for this event here.

 

18. Has the Arab Spring Come to Jordan?, Friday December 7, 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS

Venue:  Johns Hopkins SAIS, Rome Building, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036

Speakers: Marwan Muasher, Randa Habib, Naseer Alomari, Yassin Sabha

Marwan Muasher, director of the Carnegie Endowment Middle East program and former Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister; Naseer Alomari, Jordanian blogger; Randa Habib (participating through Skype), director of the Agence France Presse Foundation and journalist; Yassin Sabha (President of MENA Club and Jordanian political analyst).

Note: SAIS will also host a live webcast of the event at www.sais-jhu.edu/pressroom/live.html

RSVP for this event to menaclub.sais@gmail.com.

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How many is enough?

The right question is not why U.S. troops need to stay in Afghanistan after 2014 but rather how many are needed to counter the resurgence of Al Qaeda there.  Fred and Kim Kagan say upwards of 30,000 and cast aspersions on the “amateurs” who call for fewer.  The Administration seems  to be focusing on 10,000, plus several thousand advisors from NATO allies.  The Administration has most of the qualified professionals in its employ.

I put myself solidly in the amateur category, which is clearly where the Kagans also belong.  But even an amateur sees the big hole in their argument.  They fail to consider the possibility that U.S. troop presence helps to generate the recruits Al Qaeda requires.  This is no small matter.  Any good military commander needs to ask whether offensive efforts are generating more enemy fighters than they are eliminating.  David Petraeus, who on this showed far better judgment than in his personal life, famously asked this question in Iraq about the U.S. detention policy there (and arranged to free a good number of people when those in charge told him the bad news).  There is ample evidence that this counter-productive effect is happening in Yemen, where the numbers of estimated Al Qaeda activists have grown markedly during the course of the U.S. drone war there.  Could the same thing be happening in Afghanistan and Pakistan?

I can’t answer that question, but others have tried  to do so.  It has been years since reasonable observers concluded that on balance drone strikes are counter-productive in Pakistan, which is the center of gravity of the war on extremists.  The problem is that there is a lot of collateral damage, and population anxiety, for every high-level target killed.  Three quarters of Pakistanis now regard the United States as an enemy.  If even a tiny percentage of them joins Al Qaeda to fight against us, we are in trouble.

There is another problem.  U.S. troops in Afghanistan will be vulnerable to asymmetric Iranian attacks if Israel or the U.S. goes after the Tehran’s nuclear program.  If you think preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons is a top U.S. priority, you should want to minimize the number of American troops exposed if military action becomes necessary.

The Kagans and many others will complain loudly if “only” 10,000 American troops are left in Afghanistan.  They also wanted to leave American troops in Iraq.  I find it hard to fathom what good that would have done, and easy to imagine how problematic it would have been as Prime Minister Maliki tries to exert more centralized authority over both Sunni and Kurds.  The notion that American commanders would necessarily stand up for truth, justice and the American way is not convincing.

The United States has more troops abroad than it can afford, and likely also more than some of the societies in which they operate find acceptable.   I’m just an amateur, but so is the man in charge.  He should want to keep those low options open.

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Wisdom, not resolve

I’m in Atlanta this week for Thanksgiving, which Americans will mark tomorrow with parades, running races, a giant meal, lots of football (watching and playing) and much debate on the issues of our day, from cranberry sauce recipes to the state of world affairs. Some will go to church, but most will mark the day entirely at home–or in a relative’s home–with marathon culinary preparations, a lengthy and leisurely afternoon meal and a long denouement of talk, napping and TV, in my family followed in the late evening by a giant turkey sandwich, on white toast.

I mention these things because close to 50% of my readers are non-Americans, only some of whom will have enjoyed the Thanksgiving experience first hand.  To my knowledge, the holiday is entirely a New World phenomenon.  Canada has its own version, celebrated last month.  Of course lots of cultures express thanks in both religious and non-religious ways, but I wonder if any have made it quite the major event that the North Americans have.  Readers should feel free to enlighten me.

Americans certainly have a great deal to be thankful for.  We are slowly climbing out of a lingering recession, we’ve gotten through the difficult quadrennial drama of presidential elections without the uncertainties that have sometimes plagued the process, our troops are out of Iraq and moving out of Afghanistan, and there is no existential threat on the horizon, even if there are many less dramatic challenges.  We are the solution to our own worst problems, which focus on the relatively mundane questions of what the government should spend money on and where it should find the revenue needed.

The world is not in such good shape.  While statistics show that the overall frequency of war is down, the catalogue is full of long lasting conflicts and their devastating impacts on people:  the revolution and civil war in Syria are getting on to marking two years, Israel and Palestine have been in conflict one way or another for 65 years, the Afghanistan/Pakistan war is dragging into its 12th year, and I don’t know how to determine when the war against al Qaeda in Yemen, the war against its affiliates in Somalia  or the war in Eastern Congo began.  Then there are the more recent conflicts:  northern Mali and the all but defeated revolution in Bahrain.  And there are the wars that might come:  perhaps against Iran, in the South or East China Seas, on the Korean peninsula or between South Sudan and Sudan.

I can’t claim that most Americans will be thinking about these disasters as they give thanks for their own blessings.  They are more likely to be thinking about Breezy Point and Hoboken, two communities that hurricane Sandy devastated early this month.  We’ve still got tens of thousands homeless and some without power weeks later.  Those who turn to America for help–and many do–are going to find us preoccupied these days with our own needs.  I suspect this will not be just a short-term phenomenon, but a longer-term effort to put our own house in order, limiting commitments abroad and prioritizing them in accordance with America’s own interests.

This will sound ungenerous to non-Americans, who may bemoan American interference but also look to the U.S. to step in to help stop the Gaza fighting and turn to Washington when other disasters strike.  We will continue to do what we can where vital American interests are at stake, but it will be healthy if we are a bit less committed and rely on others rather more than we have in the past.  Our withdrawal–retrenchment is what some call it–will not be absolute.  It has to be calculated and calibrated.  Good judgment, not ideology, should be its guide.

That is one of the many reasons I am grateful to the American people for re-electing President Obama.  I don’t always agree with his judgment–I’d rather he did more on Syria, for example–but he is thoughtful and cautious in ways that fit our current circumstances.  Managing the relative decline in American power and constructing a global architecture that will limit conflict and provide space for those who choose to live in free societies to prosper are the great challenges of the coming generations.  Wisdom, not resolve, is the essential ingredient to meet them.

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Easier said than done

Hillary Clinton is on her way from Cambodia to Jerusalem.  This is precisely the opposite direction from the one President Obama intends for American foreign policy:   his announced intention is to pivot American attention from the Middle East to Asia.  His visit to Asia just a few days after re-election was meant to underline that message.

The current Middle East crisis is over Gaza, where rocket launches against Israeli targets have precipitated a ferocious response, so far mainly from the air (though there have also been sea and land artillery barrages).  Israel has mobilized ground forces, which appear ready for a land incursion into Gaza.  Hamas, which governs Gaza (but does not necessarily launch all the rockets), has attracted support from Turkey, Qatar and Egypt, which is seeking to mediate a ceasefire.

This is a pretty clear cut case of the urgent taking priority over the important.  Even in the Middle East, there are things going on that are more important to vital U.S. interests than the highly regrettable Hamas/Israel conflagration.  The civil war in Syria above all requires more attention than it has gotten, even if Obama’s hesitancy to get more deeply involved is understandable when you look at the array of unappealing options available.  Iran’s nuclear program continues to produce 20% enriched uranium.  If diplomacy does not produce an end to its nuclear weapons ambitions in the next few months, military action by both the U.S. and Israel becomes likely.  The fight against al Qaeda in Yemen isn’t working well–the drone war seems to produce more terrorists than it kills.  Let’s not even mention the sometimes faltering revolutions in Tunisia and Libya, or the apparent extremist takeover of northern Mali.

Whatever.  For the moment Gaza is at the top of America’s to do list.  The immediate problem is a ceasefire, but Ehud Yaari argues that a broader arrangement is really what is needed.  This would entail high-level political agreements between Egypt and Israel on blocking arms smuggling to Hamas, clamping down on extremists in Sinai and opening the border crossing between Egypt and Gaza to both trade and people.

The problem with these ideas is that they tie Hamas-governed Gaza more closely to Egypt and loosen its already attenuated ties to the West Bank, where the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) governs.  If there is any sense at all in Israel’s right-wing efforts to block Palestinian statehood and the two-state solution the rest of the world favors, it lies precisely in a scheme to separate Gaza and the West Bank, returning the former to Egypt’s suzerainity and the West Bank to Jordan.

But that does not mean Yaari’s ideas are bad, only that what I take to be their unintended consequences should not be allowed to block Palestinian unity.  It is an added irony that the main obstacle at the moment is the Palestinians themselves, who have not managed to reconstitute a united polity despite many efforts to do so.  It will be interesting to see if the Israeli air attacks sharpen the differences between Gaza and the West Bank or narrow them.  Palestinian unity, like the pivot to Asia, is easier said than done.

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This week’s peace picks

A very light holiday week comes as a break after the flurry of post-election events.

1. America and China in the Aftermath of Election and Succession:  Paths and Pitfalls, Monday November 19, 9:15 AM – 12:00 PM, Brookings

Venue:  Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Falk Auditorium

Speakers: Jonathon D. Pollack, Cheng Li, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, J. Stapleton Roy, Alan Romberg, Jeffrey A. Bader, Michael Swaine

The reelection of President Barack Obama and the convening of China’s 18th National Congress only days later highlight converging political calendars that may set the contours of U.S.-China relations and East Asian politics for years to come. However, uncertainties remain, with China’s political, economic and strategic trajectories subject to major internal and external pressures. At the same time, the United States confronts a daunting, long deferred set of fiscal challenges that could reshape U.S. foreign and security policy options.

Register for this event here.

 

2. Militancy and the Arab Spring, Monday November 19, 12:15 PM – 1:45 PM, New America Foundation

Venue:  New America Foundation, 1899 L Street NW, Washington, DC 20036, Suite 400

Speakers:  Peter Bergen, Leila Hilal, Souad Mekhennet

The deaths of four American diplomats in Benghazi, Libya in September, along with the reports of militant jihadists’ participation in the Syrian conflict, have given rise to serious concerns about the role of Islamist extremists in the various theaters of the “Arab Uprising.” Al-Qaeda and its affiliated terrorist groups have suffered severe blows since 9/11, but the chaos and confusion surrounding the revolutions that have roiled the Arab world could provide such organizations with fertile ground for recruiting new members.

Register for this event here.

 

3. U.S.-India Military Engagement, Tuesday November 20, 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM, CSIS

Venue:  CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 Conference Room

Speakers:  Karl F. Inderfurth, S. Amer Latif, Walter Doran

Bilateral military cooperation has deepened substantially between the U.S. and India over the past decade. The next challenge is to see whether military relations can transition to engagement that is more normal, routine, expected.  Join the CSIS U.S.-India Chair and guest panelist Admiral (ret.) Walter Doran — who is featured in our October newsletter — for a discussion of the findings, recommendations, and conclusions of our latest report, entitled “U.S.-India Military Engagement: Steady as They Go.”

Register for this event here.

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