Tag: Asia

Stevenson’s army, August 22

– NYT sees trends in recent elections in Ecuador and Guatemala.

– FT’s Gideon Rachman sees East Asia hitting a demographic wall.

– Both NYT and WaPo see trend of state legislation against China

– WaPo sees cluster bombs helping Ukraine

– OMB has released new Circular A11, tells agencies how to prepare their budgets [be careful, it’s 1,070 pages]

– State has warned Americans to leave Belarus immediately.

– Dan Drezner weighs the 14th amendment case for blocking Trump, says it would be better for him to lose at the ballot box.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, March 26

– NYT says Asia is gearing for war.

– WaPo sees “five families” in the House GOP.

-Reuters sees US-China fight over undersea cables.

– NYT analyzes Biden-Netanyahu disagreements.

-Poli sci study funds independent redistricting commissions lead to 2.25 times as many competitive districts. Hooray!

– Conservative prof wants to change GOP primary system. Intriguing ideas.

– Marine reservist sees legal opportunity to expand “1202 authorities.”

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, November 21

– US wants expanded military presence in Philippines

– Germans consider subsidies to avoid trade war with US

Iran helps Russia build drones, WaPo says.

– Russia has growing debt problem

– And the tech sanctions are hurting, too, says FP

House GOP targets the Pentagon

– US pressures Netanyahu over defense appointment

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Empty annexations won’t make an empire

I’ve been out of commission for ten days or so. Peacefare was also down for a few days. But both of us are back now and trying to catch up.

The big news is clear: Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. Kyiv has forced Moscow’s retreat both in the northeast and to a lesser extent in the south. Russia’s hold on remaining occupied territory is precarious, though stronger in the south than in the the northeast. The Wagner group, a supposedly private security force reporting directly to the Kremlin, has proven much more reliable there than the regular Russian army and even than the Donbas proxies elsewhere.

Doubling down

Putin’s reaction is to double down. He has ordered a partial mobilization that has driven tens of thousands of Russians out of their country. He has also signed a piece of paper claiming to annex four Ukrainian provinces, though Russian forces control only a portion of them. The annexation is nominally a response to fake referenda conducted among the way fewer than 50% of the population of those provinces actually under Russian control. Russian troops carried the ballot boxes door to door and asked people to vote at gunpoint. Moscow claims to have annexed largely empty territory it is incapable of repopulating.

Ukraine has doubled down as well. Its army continues to perform far beyond expectations. Newly armed and amply inspired, it is taking territory at a fast pace. Kyiv has also submitted an application for NATO membership. That is unlikely to be approved before Russia is driven completely from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. Even then there will be opposition inside the Alliance. But it signals the realignment that Putin has incentivized. It would be hard to convince any Ukrainian loyal to Ukraine that NATO membership is not in Ukraine’s interest. Even if Ukraine never accedes, it will be aligned with NATO in the future.

Shrinking war aims

Despite doubling down, Moscow has shrunk its war aims. Putin has abandoned for now his original objective, the conquest of Kyiv and the absorption of all of Ukraine into an extended Russian empire. He won’t be able to absorb all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson either:

The parts of Luhansk and Donetsk that were under Moscow’s control from 2014 until this year did not fare well under Russian rule. Any territory that remains under Russian control when a ceasefire some day takes effect will be depopulated and depressed. Even if Putin wins, those whom he governs will lose.

More modest but sustainable ambition is needed

Putin conceives of himself as engaged in a global struggle against a perverse, exploitative, and violent West. He is losing that struggle not only on the battlefield in Ukraine but also throughout Europe and in the democratic Far East. Even India and China are distancing themselves. His confidence in the 1000-year Russian state is grossly overwrought. Russia is a second-rate petro power with nuclear weapons he knows it can’t use without precipitating a catastrophic response. It is time for Russians to wake up and do what they know needs doing: get rid of him and his coterie and return Russia to a more modest but sustainable ambition.

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Stevenson’s army, September 15

SFRC reports Taiwan bill. More from The Hill.

– Senators push terrorism designation on Russia.

– Members criticize new Egypt aid.

– Administration set up Afghan aid bypassing Taliban.

Uncertain schedule for NDAA.

Charlie wrote later:

[I have grandparent duty most Fridays, so let me upload some extra items now]

– WaPo report on Xi & Putin comments.

– More Senate staff will get top clearances.

– Biden’s Asia trade program IPEF gets some movement. Here’s CRS background.

– In addition to Taiwan bill [text here], SFRC yesterday reported what it calls a State Dept Authorization bill. Since it’s 68 pages long and covers a lot of territory, it could be the first significant such measure in 20 years [though flimsy bills with that title have been enacted since.]

– Beware: there is a faction among GOP candidates who have a scary view of civilian control of the military. For example.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, June 5

– LA TImes says momentum is shifting toward Russia in Donbas.

– Ross Douthat says he can’t be a Ukraine hawk forever.

– Australian says China is winning in Asia.

– Together on a byline for the first time in decades, Woodward & Bernstein compare Nixon and Trump.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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