Tag: Energy
Stevenson’s army, October 11
– NYT says Biden is angry at Saudi Arabia.
– WSJ says Saudis “defied US warnings” about oil production cuts.
– RAND analyst says Putin’s successor likely to continue Ukraine war.
– Carl Bildt has suggestions for countering nuclear threat.
– Eliot Cohen assesses the next phase of the war.
– NYT warns of wider war between Tigray and Ethiopia.
– Lawfare analyzes little known authorization for counter-terror funding.
– WaPo has parade of horribles if Trump is reelected.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 6
– The lame duck session of Congress will be packed with issues.
– WSJ says US will reduce sanctions on Venezuela to let it export oil.
– NYT says US wants to make Taiwan a porcupine.
– POGO has a big critique of F35.
– FP China newsletter reviews a bunch of books.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Empty annexations won’t make an empire
I’ve been out of commission for ten days or so. Peacefare was also down for a few days. But both of us are back now and trying to catch up.
The big news is clear: Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. Kyiv has forced Moscow’s retreat both in the northeast and to a lesser extent in the south. Russia’s hold on remaining occupied territory is precarious, though stronger in the south than in the the northeast. The Wagner group, a supposedly private security force reporting directly to the Kremlin, has proven much more reliable there than the regular Russian army and even than the Donbas proxies elsewhere.
Doubling down
Putin’s reaction is to double down. He has ordered a partial mobilization that has driven tens of thousands of Russians out of their country. He has also signed a piece of paper claiming to annex four Ukrainian provinces, though Russian forces control only a portion of them. The annexation is nominally a response to fake referenda conducted among the way fewer than 50% of the population of those provinces actually under Russian control. Russian troops carried the ballot boxes door to door and asked people to vote at gunpoint. Moscow claims to have annexed largely empty territory it is incapable of repopulating.
Ukraine has doubled down as well. Its army continues to perform far beyond expectations. Newly armed and amply inspired, it is taking territory at a fast pace. Kyiv has also submitted an application for NATO membership. That is unlikely to be approved before Russia is driven completely from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. Even then there will be opposition inside the Alliance. But it signals the realignment that Putin has incentivized. It would be hard to convince any Ukrainian loyal to Ukraine that NATO membership is not in Ukraine’s interest. Even if Ukraine never accedes, it will be aligned with NATO in the future.
Shrinking war aims
Despite doubling down, Moscow has shrunk its war aims. Putin has abandoned for now his original objective, the conquest of Kyiv and the absorption of all of Ukraine into an extended Russian empire. He won’t be able to absorb all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson either:
The parts of Luhansk and Donetsk that were under Moscow’s control from 2014 until this year did not fare well under Russian rule. Any territory that remains under Russian control when a ceasefire some day takes effect will be depopulated and depressed. Even if Putin wins, those whom he governs will lose.
More modest but sustainable ambition is needed
Putin conceives of himself as engaged in a global struggle against a perverse, exploitative, and violent West. He is losing that struggle not only on the battlefield in Ukraine but also throughout Europe and in the democratic Far East. Even India and China are distancing themselves. His confidence in the 1000-year Russian state is grossly overwrought. Russia is a second-rate petro power with nuclear weapons he knows it can’t use without precipitating a catastrophic response. It is time for Russians to wake up and do what they know needs doing: get rid of him and his coterie and return Russia to a more modest but sustainable ambition.
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Stevenson’s army, September 3
– In addition to the regular pending bills, Congress faces September fight over new $47 Billion request for emergency spending.
– NYT says Biden democracy speech is linked to analysis that “MAGA Republicans” can be isolated from other GOP voters.
– Congress notified of new arms for Taiwan.
-WSJ says Chinook fires came from using mis-catalogued O-rings.
–Russia keeps NordStream closed.
-In Atlantic, two former officers blame generals for Afghan failings.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 2
– Defense contractor lobbyists want boost for inflation.
– Appropriators plan stopgap until December.
– Axios says India has gone from buying 1% of Russian oil to 13%.
– State criticizes Iran’s response on nuclear deal.
– 50 in House also hit Iran deal.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Ukraine can be proud but not happy
Tomorrow will mark six months since Russia invaded Ukraine as well as Ukrainian independence day. The Ukrainians have a lot to be proud of. They have so far foiled Russian President Putin’s effort to deny the former Soviet republic its sovereignty. Realism should temper that pride. Russia has succeeded in taking control of Ukraine’s east and part of its south.
Territorial integrity compromised
The Russians have expanded, marginally but significantly, their control in Donbas. They have essentially taken all of Luhansk and threaten the part of Donetsk that remains in Ukrainian control. The Russians have also established their much-desired land bridge to Crimea through Mariupol and pressed northwest to take Kherson as well as threaten Mikolaiv and Odesa. Ukraine without the territory Russia now occupies would be a rump of its former self and face constant threats from its north (via Belarus), east, and south.
It isn’t over
So the war is far from over, despite the successful defense of Kiev and Kharkiv as well as the enormous losses inflicted on the demoralized and disorganized Russian army, air force, and navy. The Ukrainians lack the manpower to conduct a conventional offense but are using their supplies of NATO-origin artillery, drones, anti-tank missiles, and other weapons to batter the Russians and their supply lines.
Winter is coming. The Ukrainians will try to win before winter if the opportunity for a successful offensive presents itself. But by now the Russians are dug in and presumably understand their own weaknesses as well as the Ukrainians’ strengths. Only a sudden collapse of the Russian army would likely give the Ukrainians the opportunity they want.
The Russians also know Ukraine’s weaknesses
The Ukrainian will to fight may still be strong, but NATO solidarity has been waning. The US has been pumping in weapons and ammunition, but Europe is lagging:
Winter, when the Russians will no doubt cut off European antagonists’ gas supplies, will be hard for Germany in particular. The Germans have cut their dependency on Russia dramatically. They are also building gas stocks and may keep operating three nuclear plants beyond their scheduled closure at the end of this year. But that may not be enough to meet the country’s needs. Putin is banking on making life hard for Chancellor Scholz.
Prospects for negotiations are dim
The current situation looks like a mutually hurting stalemate, which is a condition for successful negotiations. But there is a second condition: a way out. Neither President Zelensky nor President Putin sees a way of ending the war with anything like the current territorial control. For Zelensky, it would be a plain defeat. Putin might be able to sell it at home, not least because he has little opposition and full control of the media. But his real aim is to end Ukraine as a separate state and incorporate it into the Russian Federation, as it was once a republic within the Soviet Union. Zelensky is captive of his country’s aspirations. Putin is captive of his own ambition.
Kiev and Moscow did manage to come to agreement on safe passage for Ukrainian grain exports. That agreement seems to be working so far, but it won’t have a big impact on world grain supplies. For Putin the main purpose is to keep the Africa and the Middle East from abandoning their relative neutrality and going over to the West. The revenue is useful to Ukraine, mainly to keep its farmers from throwing in their lot with the Russian occupiers.
Expanding the scope of negotiations beyond grain exports will be difficult. Even normal humanitarian exchanges of civilians and prisoners of war don’t appear to be happening. The Russians are shipping unwilling Ukrainians to Russia, de-populating the territory Moscow plans to keep. How they will repopulate it is anyone’s guess. There is no excess of people in Russia. Ukraine may be more attractive than Siberia, but the low population density in the latter is already a big problem for Russia.
The best that can be said
The Ukraine war has displaced at least 14 million people, half of whom have fled abroad, while another 13 million are estimated to be trapped in unsafe areas. That makes well over half of Ukraine’s pre-war population of over 44 million. The humanitarian response has been strong, but how long it will last is another question. The number of casualties is unclear, but is certainly in multiple tens of thousands on both sides.
The best that can be said is that Europe has awakened to the threat from Russia. The Baltic states and Poland are especially keen on a Russian defeat in Ukraine, because otherwise they might be next. Germany has also seen the threat. Sweden and Finland have abandoned neutrality and are joining NATO, if Turkey allows. The softer parts of Europe include Hungary, which already has a filo-Russian government, and Italy, which may get one after its election September 25. France and Turkey have at times seemed to waiver, but more in the interest of serving as mediators than actually supporting Russia.
The Ukrainians are going to need more of the courage they have already demonstrated. The U.S. and Europe need to keep them well-supplied. Proud Ukraine is not a happy Ukraine. This war is from over.
Slava Ukraini!
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