Tag: India

The sun is not setting on the US

Pantelis Ionomou asked “has the sunset of the West begun?” My own answer to this question is “no.” But that requires some explication.

The problem is real

There is no doubt but that electoral autocracies are rising while liberal democracies are declining:

The question is whether this trend will continue, where, and for how long.

2024 will see an unusual number of elections, including in big countries. Two merit particular attention: the US presidential and Congressional contests and India’s parliamentary election. The Economist rates both as “flawed democracies,” though India’s is more flawed than America’s.

Prime Minister Modi is favored to win another parliamentary majority, perhaps with a reduced number of seats. The big question is whether he will use a new mandate to further restrict Indian democracy. I wouldn’t bet against that. Modi has turned many of India’s Hindus against its massive Muslim population, the largest Muslim minority in any country on earth.

The US is particularly important

In the US, polling suggests that former President Donald Trump has a good chance of returning to the White House. As in India, the odds are he would use a second term to do additional damage to American democracy. Trump has pledged to use the Justice Department against political opponents and fire large numbers of experienced and law-abiding civil servants. He has even claimed in court absolute immunity for actions taken as president, including assassination of a political opponent. He has also avowed the intention to use dictatorial powers on “day 1” to close the border and drill, presumably for oil and gas:

Day 1 could last a long time

The question is whether Trump will win in November against Joe Biden.

It will be tight

I doubt it. He will certainly not win the popular vote, which he lost by 7 million in 2020. It is hard to imagine any New Yorker or Californian who voted for Biden last time around who will turn out to vote for Trump this time. But one of America’s democratic flaws is its presidential election procedures. Its 18th-century constitution gives the presidency to someone who wins a majority of votes in the Electoral College, regardless of the popular vote. There it is state “electors” who determine the outcome.

Each state gets a number of electors equivalent to its number of members in Congress (plus three for the District of Columbia, which is not a state). This indirect system favors smaller states since all states (but not the District) have two members of the upper house, regardless of population. It enables a candidate with strong support in less populous states to win.

Trump has that going for him. Without it, the Republicans would be permanently out of power, or forced to change their politics. They have lost the popular vote in all but one election (2004) since 1992.

The 2024 election will come down to a contest in only a handful of states. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are particularly competitive. Polling shows Biden trailing Trump in the first two, as well as in the Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona “battlegrounds.” If this polling pans out, Biden is toast.

But don’t count Biden out

So why do I think the US will not continue in that direction? Polling is notoriously unreliable this far out from an election. Many of the current polls are showing improbable shifts of minorities away from Biden, whose record on their issues is far better than Trump’s. They may be signaling unhappinesss with being taken for granted, but in the polling booth I don’t know many traditional Democrats who will make the mistake of voting against their own interests.

Muslim Americans are particularly important in Michigan. All the Arabs I know (none of whom are in Michigan I should note) are deeply disappointed in Biden’s unqualified support for Israel’s war on Gaza. Ditto my Bosnian Muslim friends with his policies both in Gaza and in the Balkans. But they will in November face a choice between Biden, who has at least tried to moderate Israel’s approach and steer it towards saving Palestinian lives and establishing a Palestinian state, and a profoundly Islamophobic, race-baiting Trump. Last time around, Trump completely abandoned Palestinian concerns, moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, and gave Prime Minister Netanyahu far more unqualified support than Biden has done.

The polling is also showing a surprising shift of Black voters to Trump, but women are heading in the other direction. This is despite record low unemployment among Blacks and a narrowing of the gap with whites. Biden has appointed an unusual number of Black judges and other officials, as well as an unprecedented number of women. Young people would like a younger candidate than Biden. But Trump is only a few years younger. He is also more addled than Biden:

Haley is not Pelosi. He didn’t offer 10,000 soldiers and what was destroyed?

Trump’s white supremacist and anti-abortion advocacy may not loom large today. But any decent electoral campaign on Biden’s part will remind the electorate of both.

Trump will be a crook and Biden’s economy will look good

I hardly need even mention the many criminal indictments and civil cases against Trump, some of which will result in ignominous outcomes for him before November. He will likely be a convicted felon by then. He will also have lost control of many of his businesses. That won’t deprive him of his base, which is oblivious to his wrongdoing and convinced he is being persecuted, but it will repulse some independents and encourage at least as much turnout among Democrats as among Trumpistas.

The Republicans are pursuing Biden’s son Hunter, but they haven’t really pinned anything unknown on him. Nor have they connected their allegations to the President.

The continuing strength of the American economy, which is going uncredited to Biden among much of the citizenry, has been a problem for him. It has caused high inflation, increased interest rates and home prices, and pushed up gasoline prices. But many of these important consumer issues will be in the rear-view mirror by November. Another ten months should bring inflation close to the Fed’s 2 per cent target, enabling reduction of interest rates. Gasoline prices are not likely to rise much as the economy softens a bit. US energy production is higher than ever and gasoline prices are falling. Interest rates appear to have peaked and consumer confidence last month jumped.

Bottom line

Absent any big surprises between now and November, Biden is far more likely to be gaining than losing against Trump in the key states. I can’t be sure it will suffice. But I am more hopeful than discouraged. The sun is not setting on the West, at least not in the US.

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Stevenson’s army, Decemberr 15

– Former SAIS prof Mara Karlin, stepping down at DOD

– WaPo reports Chinese cyber attacks on US infrastructure

– NYT says US & Ukraine are working on a new strategy

– Economist has valuable report on Indian military, including strategy, organization, deployments, and civil-military tensions

– NBC says promised US-Chinese military hotline still hasn’t been started

– New NDAA, expected to pass this week, will allow some military program starts despite normal CR blocks

– French analyst explains internal Hamas debates

And this from Legistorm:

Time to hand out those holiday bonuses: The average House personal office is on track to end the year with more than $360,000 left in its annual operating budget.

The average House personal office used just 61% of its office budget in the first nine months of the year, according to a LegiStorm analysis. That puts each office on pace to use 81% of its budget by the year’s end, leaving close to $363,000 unspent per office.

The personal average office ended 2022 with 10% of its budget left unspent, or more than $176,000.

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Stevenson’s army, December 5

– Politico reports State Dept plans for Gaza

– Israeli critical of the war explains targeting plans

– Stimson Fellow says India has a targeted killing program

-WaPo details how Ukraine offensive stalled

– Politico says administration tells where US aid to Ukraine is being spent domestically

-Tom Nichols summarizes new Atlantic issue on a new Trump administration

– CBS reports conservative effort to urge voters

– Author shows how Monroe Doctrine is a shifting meme.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, November 29

– NBC sees a Biden-Obama clash on Israel policy

– WaPo reports pressure on India over attempted assassination

– FP reports the surprisingly bipartisan House committee on China, but notes it can’t report bills.

– AP says Trump would likely use US troops domestically

– The issue of US hypocrisy came up in class. Dan Drezner explains its role.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, September 29

– The Senate went back to its old dress code. Good.

– House used its Holman rule to try to cut SecDef Austin’s pay to $1. Bad.

– DOD lists defense spending by state. It matters to Members.

– The Hill notes end of the trade consensus.

– Just Security has much harsher view of Menendez actions helping Egypt.

– WSJ says India’s spy agency does covert ops abroad.

– Former Marine doesn’t like GOP ideas about attacking Mexico.

– RAND scholar wants to avoid long Ukraine war.

– Steve Walt examines ethical issues in Ukraine war.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, September 22

– To try to avoid a government shutdown, Sen. Schumer plans to take up the FAA re-authorization passed by the House as a vehicle for a CR to fund the government. Using a bill with an HR number avoids any blue slip problems because revenue measures must begin in the House and makes the question in the House whether to accept a Senate version.

– CRS has some good background pieces on how the USG functions in a lapse of appropriations. Some FAQs and some broader background.

– Academics at the old Monkey Cage site have launched a new site, Good Authority.

– Among their good first articles are: Sarah Binder on the Tuberville holds; Andrew Rudalevige on the Schedule F problems; and Michael Tesler on GOP isolationism.

– In 2016 candidate Donald Trump didn’t run a typical campaign, just media. LATimes notes this year his campaign has done the nitty gritty work to get delegates, and it’s working.

– This week I ran across an article from last March profiling Trump’s last, acting SecDef, Chris Miller. While it’s mildly sympathetic, I stand by my low opinion of his performance and his views.

I somehow missed yesterday’s edition:

– Unclear what happens next after confirming 3 Chiefs.

– Same with the budget, though House may use King of he Hill amendment process.

– GOP group opposes Ukraine aid. Here’s their letter.

– GOP also divided over expiring PEPFAR

– FT says India spy agency operates abroad

– WSJ says US wants Israel to support nuclear program for Saudi

– Atlantic has long article on Gen. Milley

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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