Tag: ISIS
From inside northern Syria
I get lots of email, little of it more interesting than this timely update on the sitution in and near Tal Abyad on the Turkish border in northern Syria, which was liberated from ISIS two days ago. This comes from Bassam Barabandi and Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff of People Demand Change, who have good on-the-ground sources in Syria (I’ve made some minor edits for clarity and readability):
Tensions over Raqqah
The Kurdish and Arab tribal heads from both sides along with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) commanders are meeting today to continue discussing the status of Raqqah. The major dispute surrounds PYD’s claim that Northern Raqqah is part of “Rojave” or the Kurdish autonomous zone that they have claimed in Syria, and whether that means that their forces have the right to control this area militarily. Also it has implications for the areas future such as whether YPG will attempt to change the demography of the area to solidify Raqqah as a land-bridge between Kobani and Hasakah.
More and more tribal fighters from Raqqah have come to join under Abo Essa’s command and will continue to do so, especially if they think their lands will be taken by the Kurds.
Refugees from Raqqah (and especially Tal Abyad) who are in Akcakale [Turkey] have gathered into an informal militia of several hundred armed men in response to the YPG’s announcement that they considered Raqqah part of their autonomous zone. The situation there is very tense. Many of these armed refugees are crossing the border today back into Tal Abyad to support Abo Essa and show the YPG they will not give up their land without a fight. The Turkish Government thus far has not interfered in Akcakale regarding this tense situation. Some Raqqah community leaders went to Akcakale last night and asked everyone to calm down and not to make a violent confrontation in Turkey with either Kurdish refugees or the YPG. Kurdish civil society activists also made calls to Kurdish refugees and youth in Akcakale and pleaded with them sternly to stay out of the streets and not to make a fight with any of the youth from Raqqah.
Ahmad Haj Salah, the first president of the Raqqah local council was beaten by three youth when he was in Akcakale, but his injuries were not serious and he returned to Gaziantep.
Refugees crossing into Turkey not expelled
More civilians crossed into Akcakale, Turkey after the Turkish Government opened the border crossing today at 10am (Turkish time).
Some citizen journalists (Arab) have traveled to Akcakale to interview the Arab refugees fleeing Kobani and Raqqah. So far the responses have been that people are fleeing because they did not want to be caught between YPG and ISIS battles and that they needed food and water and preferred to come to Turkey until the fighting was over and it was clear who is in control of the ground. When asked about the issue of whether YPG had forced them to leave, until now the response was that they left voluntarily and were not forced to leave.
YPG commander had requested some villages in the Tal Abyad suburbs be evacuated by the civilians until the fighting was over. In these villages, civilians complied and left, but this same commander announced that all civilians who were requested to leave can return without fear and no harm will come to them. Some civilians have begun return and the YPG has worked to help a local bakery in the area open back up so the civilians can receive food.
Military situation still fluid
Ayn Essa has been liberated and the surrounding suburbs as well.
Western front is still moving south towards the Tal Abyad-Raqqah highway to cut the road just south-east of Ayn Essa.
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Peace picks June 15-19
1. Calculating the Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict| Monday, June 15th | 12:00-1:15 | Wilson Center | REGISTER TO ATTEND | This event will explore both the economic and the non-economic factors surrounding the conflict that might influence the parties’ decisions and the long-term implications for Israel, the West Bank and Gaza and the international community. Speakers include: C. Ross Anthony, Senior Economist, RAND Corporation and Director, RAND Israeli-Palestinian Initiative; Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, Director, Arab-Israeli, U.S. Institute of Peace; Aaron David Miller, Vice President for New Initiatives, The Wilson Center; Ambassador Charles Ries, Vice President, International, RAND Corporation. Presentation by C. Ross Anthony and Ambassador Charles Ries.
2. Global Cooperation Under Threat: Adapting the U.N. for the 21st Century | Monday, June 15th | 1:30-3:30 | Brookings Institution | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host Susana Malcorra, Chief of Staff to the United Nations Secretary-General for a discussion exploring how the U.N. is adapting to new geopolitical, transnational, and sub-state challenges. Speakers include: Susana Malcorra, Chief of Staff to the United Nations Secretary-General; Ambassador Thomas Pickering, Fellow of Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution; Bruce Jones, Acting Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy program, Brookings Institution.
3. The Banyan Tree Leadership Forum with K Shanmugam, Foreign Minister of Singapore | Monday, June 15th | 2:30-3:30 | Center for Strategic and International Studies | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Mr. Shanmugam will discuss Singapore’s bilateral relations with the United States, regional relationships, and the opportunities and challenges facing Singapore. Speakers include: Mr. K Shanmugam, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister for Law.
4. Can Afghanistan Stabilize as U.S. Forces Plan Their Exit? | Tuesday, June 16th | 10:00-12:00 | United States Institute of Peace | REGISTER TO ATTEND | The United States’ current policy in Afghanistan mandates a “responsible withdrawal” of U.S. forces by January 2017, when President Obama leaves office. With 18 months to go, a sense of crisis is mounting in Afghanistan as the economy sags, Taliban attacks increase, and the eight-month-old unity government remains deadlocked. Speakers include: Dr. William Byrd, Senior Expert in Residence, USIP; Ali Jalali, Former Minister of the Interior of Afghanistan, Senior Expert in Residence, USIP; Scott Smith, Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, USIP; Dr. Moeed Yusuf, Director, South Asia Programs, USIP. Moderated by Dr. Andrew Wilder, Vice President, Center for South and Central Asia, USIP.
5. Making the Case for Peace: 2015 Global Peace Index| Wednesday, June 17th | 9:30-11:00 | Center for Strategic and International Studies | REGISTER TO ATTEND | What is the state of global peace in 2015? What are the main threats to peace and how can we prevent violence in the future? What are the implications of these trends for foreign policy and aid interventions? The 2015 Global Peace Index discussion will explore these questions, detailing recent trends in militarization, safety and security, and ongoing conflict, with a focus on analyzing the factors that underpin peaceful societies. Speakers include: Ambassador Rick Barton, Former Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations; Melanie Greenberg, Executive Director, Alliance for Peacebuilding; Matt Wuerker, Editorial Cartoonist and Illustrator, Politico. Moderated by Aubrey Fox, Executive Director, Unites States, Institute for Economics and Peace. Global Peace Index results presented by Daniel Hyslop, Research Manager, Institute for Economics and Peace.
6. Gulf Youth and the City | Wednesday, June 17th | 12:00-1:30 | The Arab Gulf States Institute | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Gulf cities have followed similar paths of urbanization and architecture shaped by state planning and commercial development. Recent events across the globe, from the Occupy movements to the 2011 Arab uprisings, have brought the role of cities in political life to the forefront. However, with few exceptions, Gulf cities are known more as glittering global consumer capitals than places of civic engagement or political struggle.With a dynamic younger generation rising in the Gulf, what is the public’s role, especially youth, in the remaking of their cities? Speakers include: Farah Al-Nakib, Director, Center for Gulf Studies, American University of Kuwait; Diane Singerman, Associate Professor, Department of Government, American University. Moderated by Kristin Smith Diwan, Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institute.
7. The New Politics of Religion and Gender in Israel | Thursday, June 18th | 2:00-3:30 | Brookings Institution | REGISTER TO ATTEND | This year’s Israeli elections provoked resurgent debates over religion and saw the emergence of powerful female voices in the political debate. Join the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings on June 18 to engage with three of these dynamic Israeli figures, as we launch a new agenda of research and events examining important changes in Israel’s politics and society. Speakers include: Adina Bar Shalom, President and Chairwoman, Haredi College of Jerusalem; Merav Michaeli, Member of Knesset; Rachel Azaria, Member of Knesset, Former Deputy Mayor of Jerusalem.
8. Fighting Terrorism in the Age of ISIS | Thursday, June 18th | 5:00-6:30 | Center for Strategic and International Studies | REGISTER TO ATTEND | Please join the Smart Women, Smart Power initiative for a discussion of ‘Fighting Terrorism in the Age of ISIS’ with Fran Townsend, Former Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Adviser to President George W. Bush. Speakers include: Fran Townsend, Former Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Adviser to President George W. Bush. Moderated by Nina Easton, Senior Associate, CSIS, Editor and Columnist, Fortune, Chair, Most Powerful Women International.
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No easy answers
Lots of people were asking yesterday about President Obama’s decision to send more trainers and equipment to Iraq, mainly for Sunni fighters. Here is more or less what I’ve been saying:
Q. Why is the US sending troops to Iraq at this time?
A. They are sending more troops because the current effort is not succeeding. The Islamic State has lost some territory in the past year, but it has also gained territory and appears no closer to defeat than it was a year ago. Beefing up the training and equipment, in particular for Sunnis, is a move in the right direction, even if it is not likely the last one.
Q. What does this represents in terms of strategy?
A. In terms of strategy, not much. The objective is the same—to defeat ISIS—and this is a marginal addition of resources with which to try to do it. I don’t see any big shift in strategy with this decision.
Q. How is that going to help, if any, the fight against ISIS?
A. The key here is to try to get more Sunni tribal members into the fight. If and when the Sunni population wants to be rid of ISIS in a serious way, it will happen.
But that also depends on what the Sunni population can expect if they join the fight. Will they gain political and economic weight in Baghdad or in their own provinces? Will they be treated properly by the Iraqi authorities and adequate provision made for stabilizing and reconstructing their communities? There are no clear answers to these questions yet. The military dimension is not the only one that counts.
Q. Do you think the US is doing enough to help the Iraqis in their fight? If not, what more should the US does?
A. Most military experts think an important missing link is people on the ground to “spot,” that is target, the air strikes, which have been relatively few due in part to fear of collateral damage. But putting Americans into that role risks their lives and would raise questions about whether the effort is sustainable. Training Iraqis to perform that function risks its use to settle scores.
Like many other issues in the Middle East these days, there are no easy answers.
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Defeating ISIS in Iraq
Monday the United States Institute of Peace hosted Saleem Al-Jubouri, speaker of Iraq’s parliament, on the causes of violence and instability in Iraq and what he believes Iraq needs to do going forward to fight ISIS. USIP President Nancy Lindborg delivered the opening remarks. Acting executive vice president William Taylor moderated. Here is a link to a video of the entire event.
Al-Jubouri, a Sunni, blamed ISIS’s rapid rise to power on the government’s sectarian policies, corruption, and marginalization of Sunnis. The government did not heed his warnings. Iraq is now a country of displaced persons who represent a recruitment opportunity for ISIS.
The role of the Iraqi state in what lies ahead is critical. For Al-Jubouri, a stable state is the guarantor of the well being of minorities and the marginalized. In the struggle between state and non-state institutions, institutions based on elections must be maintained.
In order to defeat ISIS, the Iraqi government must foster reconciliation between Iraq’s different ethnic groups by moving away from confessionalism and regional polarization and towards greater efficiency. Al-Jubouri regards Prime Minister Abadi as a partner in the reconciliation process, which faces many challenges. No single group is to blame.
According to Al-Jubouri, Sunni tribes will only take the risk necessary to fight ISIS if they believe that they will end up better off after ISIS is defeated. They will not risk of fighting ISIS if they believe new extremists will fill the vacuum. When the tribes previously took up arms against Al Qaeda in Iraq, some of those who successfully defeated AQI were subsequently arrested by the government for carrying weapons. If the tribes defeat ISIS, they must be protected under the law once the dust settles.
Al-Jubouri said the proposed law to create a National Guard is intended to ensure that all sectors of society are partners in Iraq’s security. It was supposed to be organized by governorate. But in practice, the National Guard may be just another armed group and could provide legal cover for the Shi’a Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs).
Al-Jubouri does not view the influence of the PMUs as wholly negative. Southern Iraqis are giving their lives to repel ISIS from areas far from their homes. However, the PMUs are not disciplined and suffer in some cases from bad leadership. They have been involved in burning and looting of some captured areas.
The ideal is to strengthen official government forces and forbid all other parties from carrying weapons. But current circumstances are exceptional. The Shi’a have the PMUs, the Kurds have the Peshmerga, but the Sunnis lack a means to confront terror. The Sunni tribes must be armed, with guarantees that the weapons will reach the local population.
The Speaker’s message regarding foreign intervention in Iraq was dichotomous. Iraq needs the help of its closest friend, the US, and the international community, which should increase military assistance and push Iraq towards a more inclusive political process. However, neighboring countries’ (especially Iran’s) attempts to influence Iraqi affairs for their own gain is a problem. No country should intervene in Iraq’s internal affairs.
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A snapshot of Sisi’s Egypt
I’ve spent the last few days in Cairo, where little has visibly changed since my visits in September 2011 (something like a revolution was still in progress then) and January 2014, when I observed the referendum that approved the current constitution (over 98% of those 39% who voted were in favor). The city still bussles day and night, the Nile flows gently, the traffic is only marginally better behaved then in 2011, the air is hot, dusty and polluted, the contrasts of rich and poor are still dramatic.
I haven’t spent any quality time talking to ordinary Egyptians. Mostly I’ve been hearing from the educated and sometimes wealthy elite that supports President Sisi’s efforts to restore order and improve the economy, without (at least for now) expanding civil liberties.
The predominant sentiment towards the US among those I talked with is resentment. Egypt, they think, deserves better and more than it is getting from the US, which was slow to recognize that former President Morsi had lost legitimacy and quick to suspend aid. Washington follows a “double standard.” It provides too much support to Israel and too little to the Arabs, especially the Palestine and Egypt.
The Americans are also failing to counter Iranian troublemaking in the region, failing to stop financing for the Islamic State, failing to bring down Bashar al Assad or support the intervention against the Houthi (sic), and failing to recognize the peril of the Muslim Brotherhood. The US government, some think, may even be playing a role in supporting one or more of these malign factors in the region.
Lack of confidence in official America is coupled with an all too apparent affection for American society and hunger for American culture, education, technology, trade and investment. Sisi’s Egypt is hoping to upgrade Egypt’s technical and educational levels and improve its economy, in part through cooperation with the US, while continuing its crackdown on nongovernmental organizations, the Muslim Brotherhood, street demonstrations and media.
The model is a technocratic one: use expertise and money effectively while blocking political challenges.
Some Egyptians characterize the Middle East today as “a Fascist moment.” They argue there can be no compromise with the Islamic State, or those in the Muslim Brotherhood or elsewhere who take up arms against state structures, anywhere in the region. The Arabs need to reassert themselves, resist the American intention of empowering Iran, and join together to counter foreign hegemony, including by forming the united Arab army Egypt has proposed.
The Egyptians I heard from welcome the upcoming bilateral “strategic dialogue” with the US, which is supposed to meet in July. They hope this will be an opportunity to reframe the relationship in a way that will be more satisfactory to Egypt and less dominated by the US. Cairo will try to convince the Americans that the Muslim Brotherhood is in fact a terrorist organization and that a broad crackdown is therefore justified. Some might be ready to give a little on NGOs and street demonstrations, though resentment of American “interference” in these internal matters is strong. Building an effective regional counterweight to Iran will be an important part of the conversation, as will be moving the relationship more definitively in the direction of trade and investment (a free trade agreement is one possibility).
While privatization and other structural economic reforms seem still far off, the Egyptians are reasonably pleased with what President Sisi has achieved so far, including reduction of subsidies and his flagship project to expand the capacity of the Suez Canal. They hope a more stable and prosperous Egypt will mean return to a leading regional role in the future, even without more political opening.
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Memorial Day for all
I have little to add to what I said the past four years on Memorial Day, which this year is tomorrow. So I am republishing what I wrote originally in 2011 with slight updates and two short additional paragraphs:
I spent my high school years marching in the Memorial Day parade in New Rochelle, New York and have never lost respect for those who serve and make sacrifices in uniform. Even as an anti-war protester in the Vietnam era, I thought denigration of those in uniform heinous, not to mention counterproductive.
It is impossible to feel anything but pride and gratitude to those who have served in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention Kosovo, Bosnia, Panama, Somalia, Kuwait and Iraq during the previous decade. Nor will I forget my Memorial Day visit to the American cemetery in Nettuno accompanying Defense Secretary Les Aspin in the early 1990s, or my visit to the Florence cemetery the next year. These extraordinarily manicured places are the ultimate in peaceful. It is unimaginable what their inhabitants endured. No matter what we say during the speechifying on Memorial Day, there is little glory in what the troops do and a whole lot of hard work, dedication, professionalism and horror.
That said, it is a mistake to forget those who serve out of uniform, as we habitually do. Numbers are hard to come by, but a quick internet search suggests that at at least 2000 U.S. civilians have died in Iraq and Afghanistan, plus quite a few “third country” nationals. They come in many different varieties: journalists, policemen, judges, private security guards, agriculturalists, local government experts, computer geeks, engineers, relief and development workers, trainers, spies, diplomats and who knows what else. I think of these people as our “pinstripe soldiers,” even if most of them don’t in fact wear pinstripes. But they are a key component of building the states that we hope will some day redeem the sacrifices they and their uniformed comrades have endured.
We are losing that long war. Not because our soldiers lack courage or technology, but rather because our civilian instruments for preventing war and rebuilding afterwards are inadequate. There will be no victory in Libya, Syria or Yemen without the effective civilian instruments needed to restore some kind of inclusive governance to states torn apart by uncivil war.
Host country civilians killed in all these conflicts far outnumber the number of Americans killed, by a factor of 100 or more. Numbers this large become unfathomable. Of course some–and maybe more–would have died under Saddam Hussein, the Taliban or Muammar Qaddafi, but that is not what happened. They died fighting American or Coalition forces, or by accident, or caught in a crossfire, or trying to defend themselves, or in internecine violence, or because a soldier got nervous or went berserk, or….
Memorial Day in this age of “war among the people” should be about the people, civilian as well as military, non-American as well as American, not only about the uniform, the flag or the cause.
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