Tag: Japan

Has the sunset of the West begun?

Pantelis Ikonomou writes:

After the collapse of then existing socialism in 1991, the clash of ideologies seemed finished. Francis Fukuyama’s “The End of History” became a bestseller.

It did not take long for him to admit the error of his prophecy. At the same time, humanity was realizing that hopes for global peace were false. History continued to flow, yet more violently and at higher human costs.

The US is to blame

The undeniable protagonist of the new hot war era was the winner of the 45-year Cold War: the American-led democratic West. The Warsaw Pact dissolved, but NATO continued to exist and to progressively encircle Russia, the collapsed adversary.

The US, with or without NATO, led a series of wars that go on to this day: the Gulf War (1991), the devastating bombardments of Yugoslavia (1995 and 1999), the military interventions in Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003), Libya (2011), Syria (2014) and the latest, indirect but decisive US involvement in Ukraine (2022) and the slaughter in Gaza (2023).

Human values ​​and democratic principles are not the driving force of this on-going violence. It is the superpower’s eternal greed to achieve and maintain global hegemony.

What’s next?

In periods of crises, political change is critical. Is there a basis for hope?

Although history’s next games remain unknown, we will get to know one of them relatively soon. Recent polls in the US sugest that the presidential election next November will likely get Donald Trump, or a Republican politician with similar views, back on the top of the global American superpower.

The entire world, including the European democratic West, should not forget ex-President Trump’s unorthodox, unpredictable, and thus perilous persona.

Flash back

In 2016, president-elect Trump announced his doctrine for world order: “America First”. Its main pillar was the dissolution of the EU. He strongly urged European countries to follow the example of Brexit.

The head of the Munich Security Conference, Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, called this “a non-military declaration of war.” The response of the then President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, was characteristic: “Europe is threatened from all sides, including the USA.” Then German Chancellor Angela Merkel wondered whether “we will be able to cooperate with the US in the future or will we retreat into parochial policies.” At the same time, she underlined the importance of international multilateral institutions, such as the EU and the UN, which Trump defiantly discredited.

Trump also encouraged US allies Japan and South Korea, and indirectly Saudi Arabia, to acquire nuclear weapons. This violated American obligations, as well as the binding commitments of the countries in question to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Trump publicly described NATO as “obsolete.” He even proposed a retreat to bilateral agreements, a proposition Russia would support.

Hence, there are well-founded doubts worldwide about the future posture of the US in defending the security, principles, and interests of the democratic West as well as abiding by historic alliances and international treaties.

Is the West at a geopolitical turning point? Has the sunset begun?

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Stevenson’s army, January 8

– Why does DNI think Israel will be in trouble if war expands to Lebanon?

– Why does MITRE think US intelligence is deficient in covering China?

– How dramatic is the new Japanese defense posture?

What’s behind ouster of so many Chinese defense officials?

– Why didn’t we know about SecDef Austin’s hospitalization?

– What’s in the new budget deal?

– Can US keep its base in Niger?

– How bad are new threats linked to Iran?

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, August 21

– Economist sees sour mood in Ukraine.

– The Hill sees refugee fatigue in Europe.

– NYT sees China “dark mood” over deflation.

US Japan & Australia plan drills in SCS

– Axios reports on Chinese propaganda schools in Africa

– New Yorker says US government relies on but has complicated relations with Musk.

– Punchbowl News shows crowded congressional calendar in September

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Stevenson’s army, August 19

-WaPo has big piece listing the many ways US democracy is breaking.

– Hill notes FEMA is running out of money.

– NYT sees China reaction to Camp David Summit.

– WaPo has expert comments on China’s economic problems.

– Conservative Luttig and liberal Tribe agree Trump is barred from reelection.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, August 18

-NYT says administration is consulting closely with Senate on possible Saudi-Israeli deal.

– WaPo says intelligence report doubts Ukraine will achieve key target

– WaPo has interview with Gen. Milley on that and more

– NYT explains how Tokyo and Seoul have come together

– ECOWAS military chiefs confer about Niger

– North Korea said to prepare missile tests

– FP says Iran has shifted tactics, more carrots for neighbors

-FT columnist warns of AI hype — citing this guy

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, July 23

I haven’t seen the movie yet, but I plan to. Here’s good additional information from Fred Kaplan and New York magazine.

I’ve read many books on the Manhattan Project and want to suggest 3 novels and one nonfiction about life in Los Alamos. Joseph Kanon wrote one. Ellen Klages another.

TaraShea Nesbit’s is fun. And Jennet Conant’s nonfiction is revealing.

The bulletin of the atomic scientists has a collection from its archives.

On other matters, David Ignatius has a good piece on China and space.

WSJ questions whether Japan would support the US over Taiwan.

On Lawfare there’s a good piece on fixing the Bumpers amendment on military coups.

– And my favorite budget wonk Kevin Drum has the fix for Social Security.

I also came across this article explaining why pollsters and political ad writers clash so often.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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