Tag: Russia

Peace Picks | May 17 – May 21

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream

1. Migration and Displacement in Libya: Converging Challenges and Pathways Forward | May 18, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Speakers

Mohamed Abu Araba: Program Manager, Bawader Foundation

Malak Edoudi: Livelihoods officer, Danish Refugee Council

Mohamed Hmouma: Program manager, Almotawaset Organization for Migration and Relief

Mohamed Saad: Lecturer, faculty in Chemical Engineering, University of Sirte

Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux (moderator): Director and co-founder, NAPI

This event will feature several of NAPI’s Young Policy Leaders and NAPI affiliates, who will discuss their research on the impact of migration and forced displacement in Libya. There are currently an estimated 12.4 million displaced people across the MENA region: a tremendous humanitarian emergency that is compounded by various environmental and governance factors. In Libya, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) accounted for 245,000 IDPs in February 2021, and over 620,000 returnees since 2016. Together, they make up close to 900,000 displaced Libyans in five years, which is approximately 14% of the Libyan population. In addition to IDPs, IOM tracked 576,000 migrants in Libya in February 2021, although these do not include migrants in movement and those in the hands of people traffickers. The speakers’ research spans intersections such as the economic recovery of people impacted by conflict, the state of migrant detention centers, the rights of migrant workers, the experiences of IDPs in establishing livelihoods, and the connection between climate change and displacement.

2. The Marine Corps and the future of warfare | May 18, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here

Speakers

Gen. David H. Berger: Commandant, Marine Corps

Michael E. O’Hanlon (moderator): Director of Research, Foreign Policy

The Marine Corps is pursuing significant changes to address the realities of great power competition, including implementing a new force design. Evolving technology, uncertainty about the budgetary and fiscal environment, and accelerating innovation by America’s emerging competitors have forced the Marine Corps to adapt by reconfiguring itself to better address the nation’s future defense outlook. Much work, though, remains to be done. On May 18, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host Commandant of the Marine Corps General David H. Berger to discuss Marine Corps modernization, the budgetary environment, and the challenges of great power competition.

3. After the pandemic: Health security and multilateralism at work | May 19, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:30 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here

Speakers

Werner Baumann: CEO, Bayer

Gunilla Carlsson: Vice-Chair, Global Fund Strategy Committee

Sergio Dompé: President of Dompé Farmaceutici

Anthony Dworkin: Research Director and Senior Policy Fellow, ECFR

Alessandro Speciale (moderator): Rome Bureau Chief, Bloomberg

The covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the vulnerabilities of an interconnected world, but it has also created a new sense of urgency behind the need for multilateral action, which has been shown to be directly connected to the health and well-being of individuals in every country.

4. What is the road ahead for Colombia? | May 19, 2021 | 9:30 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Speakers

Adriana Mejía Hernández: Vice Minister of Multilateral Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Colombia

Jason Marczak (moderator): Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council

Amid the third peak of the pandemic, over 400,000 people took to the streets in Colombia to protest a now-withdrawn tax-reform bill proposed by the government to address the country’s economic crisis. In some cities, protests were permeated by criminal acts, vandalism, and blockades. What steps is the Colombian government taking to address social and political tensions? How will Colombia stabilize its fiscal deficit and public debt? How can the United States support its longstanding ally at this critical moment?

5. Yezidis in Iraq & Syria: Genocide, Recovery & Geopolitical Challenges | May 19, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

Speakers

James F. Jeffrey: Chair, Middle East Program

Amy Austin Holmes: Public policy fellow, Harvard University

Pari Ibrahim: Executive Director, Free Yazidi Foundation

Murad Ismael: President, Sinjar Academy

Nadine Maenza: Commissioner, US Commission on International Religious Freedom

Merissa Khurma (moderator): Program Director, Middle East Program

The Biden Administration must develop policies for Iraq and Syria that prioritize Yezidi and minority rights and must ensure that Yezidis do not suffer persecution and further marginalization even after the military defeat of ISIS. This panel will discuss the challenges and opportunities for Yezidis, the geopolitical terrain, and possible paths forward for the United States.

6. Economic Security of the Black Sea Region: Internal and External Challenges | May 19, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Speakers

Altay Atli: Founder, Atli Global

The emerging market economies of the Black Sea – including Turkey, Ukraine, and Georgia – are facing significant economic challenges, amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. Such challenges are impacting the overall security of these countries, and the security of the wider region. The Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a panel event to explore these challenges. What are the internal economic dynamics of Turkey, Ukraine, and Georgia? How can they adequately manage a post-pandemic recovery, both as individual states and through cooperation with regional neighbors?

7. Calibrated Resistance: The Political Dynamics of Iran’s Nuclear Policymaking under Trump | May 20, 2021 | 12:15 PM – 2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here

Speakers

Abolghasem Bayyenat: Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow

Drawing parallel with domestic and international conditions leading to the successful conclusion of the JCPOA in 2015, this research seeks to put Iran’s nuclear policymaking during the Trump administration into perspective and explain why Iran pursued the strategy of calibrated resistance, how this strategy became possible, and why alternative policies became unthinkable or impossible.

8. Elections and crises in Somalia and Ethiopia | May 20, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here

Speakers

Abdirahmen Aynte: Co-Founder, Laasfort Consulting Group

Bronwen Morrison: Senior Director, Dexis Consulting Group

Lidet Tadesse: Policy Officer, European Centre for Development Policy Management

Vanda Felbab-Brown (moderator): Director, Initiative on Non-State Actors

For over a year, Somalia and Ethiopia have faced severe crises in governance and security. As Ethiopia heads into elections in early June, the Tigray insurrection against the central government has metamorphosed into an entrenched insurgency, even as external powers such as Eritrea have reinforced the Ethiopian military. Dangerous tensions have also escalated between Ethiopia and Sudan. In Somalia, an effort by President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed to delay presidential and parliamentary elections and extend his rule has brought the country to the edge of a civil war. Intersecting with complex rivalries in the Red Sea region and the Middle East, tensions between Somalia’s federal government and federal member states risk wiping out a decade of stabilization efforts. Meanwhile, the terrorist group al-Shabab has been growing stronger over the past four years. On May 20, Foreign Policy at Brookings will convene a panel to discuss these internal crises, their regional complexities and repercussions, and June elections in Ethiopia and Somaliland — a state within Somalia. After their remarks, panelists will take questions from the audience.

9. The Role of Integrated Air and Missile Defense for Strategic Deterrence | May 21, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:15 AM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here

Speakers

LTG Daniel Karbler: Commander, U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command

Tom Karako: Senior Fellow, International Security Program and Director, Missile Defense Project

Please join the CSIS Missile Defense Project on Friday, May 21 for a conversation on the U.S. Army’s space and air and missile defense plans with Lieutenant General Daniel Karbler, Commander of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command. 

10. After Navalny’s Arrest: Whither the Russian Opposition | May 21, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

Speakers

Leonid Volkov: Head, Network of Regional Headquarters for Alexei Navalny

Matthew Rojansky (moderator): Director, Kennan Institute

The return to Russia and subsequent imprisonment of Alexei Navalny represents a possible turning point in Russian domestic politics. Navalny’s reappearance on the Russian stage sparked a series of large protests and a predictable sharp reaction from authorities. Can the opposition remain organized and united in light of this crackdown, or will Putin’s authoritarian turn be sufficient to maintain his grip on power?

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It’s not only about Montenegro

Colleague Mike Haltzel has a lot to say about Montenegro:

Hard for me to disagree with any of this, but I might have put more emphasis on Russia’s and Serbia’s efforts to undermine Montenegro’s independence. It has been their troublemaking, including through the Serbian Orthodox Church, that has made it difficult for a pro-EU opposition to emerge in Montenegro. President Djukanovic has had a virtual monopoly on liberal democratic ideals because the main serious political alternative has been Serb ethnic nationalist.

Now Montenegro is in a kind of ethnic security dilemma: anything Montenegrins do to preserve their identity is perceived as attacking Serbian identity and the Serbian state; and anything Serbs in Montenegro do to preserve their identity is perceived as an attack on Montenegrin identity and the Montenegrin state. Perhaps the biggest losers in this have been minorities, whom the Serbs see as devotees of President Djukanovic because they have consistently participated in governing coalitions with his political party. With no apparent way of winning them over because Serb identity excludes them, self-identified Serbs in Montenegro are hoping to intimidate and chase out Bosniaks, other Muslims, and Albanians while enfranchising as many ex-patriot Serbs as possible.

Russia and Serbia are strong supporters of Serb ambitions in Montenegro, not least because the former aim to undermine NATO and the latter to pursue the latest Serb fantasy, the “Serbian Home.” That’s the updated moniker for Greater Serbia, a single state that incorporates parts of neighboring states that Serbs inhabit (i.e. part of not only Montenegro but also Kosovo, Croatia, and Bosnia). It isn’t going to happen, but Serbia is aiming at least to re-impose its hegemony on its neighbors, even if that means destabilizing them, slowing their progress towards the EU, or undermining their credentials as NATO allies.

I’ve never quite understood a country that wants unstable neighbors, but in a zero-sum world it would make sense. Whatever I gain will come at my neighbors’ expense. The world since the financial crisis of 2007/8 has been close to zero sum, especially in Europe. Unwelcome migration, Brexit, the Greek financial crisis (and the threat of other financial crises), slow economic growth, and nationalist populism have undermined the attraction of the EU and provided Moscow and Belgrade with opportunities to project their more autocratic alternatives. The availibility of Chinese money has compounded the incentives to turn East rather than West, though Montenegro’s own billion-dollar loan is already going south. It should be a warning to others.

The US has already begun its post-pandemic economic expansion. Europe has not. Let’s hope it comes sooner rather than later, not only for Montenegro’s sake.

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Stevenson’s army, May 12

– Are the Russians conducting microwave attacks against Americans? Or is that implausible?

– Are retired officer attacks on Biden beyond the pale?

– Do we need a new ICBM?  [My view: if the costs are low enough, it makes sense to force an enemy to have to worry about taking out ICBMs as well as other nuclear capable systems.]

– WSJ says US tariffs have sharply cut US imports from China

– CFR has new backgrounder on Taiwan.

– Lawfare writer doubts private sector owns 85% of US critical infrastructure

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Ending the Kosovo conundrum

The Conflict Managment program at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies sponsors a trip every January to a conflict area, after a semester of related study and briefings in DC. This year we did the trip virtually (via Zoom) to Pristina and Belgrade. You are cordially invited to attend our presentation of research results and recommendations for the future, 4:30 pm May 18, register here:

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Peace Picks | May 10-14, 2021

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

  1. What does the future hold for NATO in the MENA region? | May 10, 2021 |  9:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative in collaboration with the Arab News Research and Studies is pleased to host an online Briefing Room Conversation to discuss the future of NATO in the Middle East-North Africa region. 

Speakers:

Luke Coffey
Director, Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, The Heritage Foundation

Iulia Joja
Senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI; adjunct professor, Georgetown University

Tarek Ali Ahmad (Moderator)
Head, Arab News Research and Studies

2. Iraqi-US Relations Under Changing Administrations | May 10, 2021 |  10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here

As President Joe Biden completes the first 100 days of his presidency, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi nears his one-year anniversary in office. Iraq and the United States held their first strategic dialogue under the Biden administration in early April, discussing bilateral security cooperation, economic development in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and protection of democracy and freedom of speech, among other topics. These two new administrations will now have to set the course for the future of Iraqi-U.S. relations.

Speakers:

Suzanne Maloney (Introduction)

Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy, Brookings Institute

Joey Hood (Keynote)

Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, US Department of State

Abbas Kadhim

Iraq Initiative Director and Resident Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council

Marsin Alshamary

Post-Doctoral Fellow in Foreign Policy, Brookings Institute

Louisa Loveluck (Moderator)

Baghdad Bureau Chief, The Washington Post

3. Border Battle: Assessing the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Clashes | May 10, 2021 |  12:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

The death and destruction wrought by the recent violence between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the Ferghana Valley is a tragedy, with scores of victims on both sides of the border. Worryingly, the clashes might yet have broader implications for both countries and their Central Asian neighbors. How might the confrontation affect the rights of ethnic minorities, particularly in the various exclaves throughout the region? How can Bishkek and Dushanbe avoid a security dilemma that might further destabilize an already tense situation?

Speakers:

Dr. George Gavrilis

Fellow, University of California-Berkeley’s Center for Democracy, Toleration, and Religion

Jonathan Henick

Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, US Department of State 

Akylai Karimova

Kyrgyz civil activist based in Osh 

Dr. Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center

Anahita Saymidinova

Dushanbe-based journalist for Iran International TV 

Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)

Director of the Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council.

4. Restricted Data: The History of Nuclear Secrecy in the United States | May 10, 2021 |  4:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

The American atomic bomb was born in secrecy. From the moment scientists first conceived of its possibility to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and beyond, there were efforts to control the spread of nuclear information and the newly discovered scientific facts that made such powerful weapons possible. Drawing on troves of declassified files, including records released by the government for the first time through Wellerstein’s efforts, Restricted Data traces the complex evolution of the US nuclear secrecy regime from the first whisper of the atomic bomb through the mounting tensions of the Cold War and into the early twenty-first century.

Speakers:

Alex Wellerstein

Stevens Institute of Technology

Christian F. Ostermann (Co-Moderator)

Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; North Korea Documentation; Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, Woodrow Wilson Center

Eric Arnesen (Co-Moderator)

Former Fellow, Professor of History, The George Washington University

Kathleen M. Vogel

Former Wilson Center Fellow; Arizona State University

Matthew Connelly

Former Fellow; Columbia University

5. Addressing Security Concerns in the Eastern Mediterranean | May 11, 2021 |  9:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here

As a vital partner for the United States in the Eastern Mediterranean, Greece is witnessing significant shifts in its regional security environment. Minister Panagiotopoulos will discuss the reasons behind growing instability in the region and Greece’s initiatives to advance security and stability in the Eastern Mediterranean, working closely with regional partners. As NATO prepares to update its Strategic Concept starting this summer, Minister Panagiotopoulos will also reflect on Greece’s priorities for the updated concept; discuss how NATO can enhance its political cohesion and address new challenges; and outline ideas for expanding and deepening the U.S.-Greece strategic defence partnership. The conversation will be moderated by Heather A. Conley, CSIS Senior Vice President for Europe, Russia, and the Arctic, and Rachel Ellehuus, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program.

Speakers:

Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos

Minister of National Defence, Greece

Heather A. Conley

Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic; and Director, Europe, Russia and the Eurasia Program, CSIS

Rachel Ellehuus

Deputy Director, Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program

6. Nonviolent Action and Minority Inclusion | May 11, 2021 |  10:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here

Mass movements employing nonviolent action have a demonstrated track record of improving democracy. But how deep and meaningful are these changes? Does nonviolent action merely change political institutions, or can it also address deeper drivers of social and political conflict, particularly for the most marginalized?

To better understand the intersection of nonviolent action and peace processes, join USIP for the final event in our series on people power, peace and democracy. The event series highlights multiple groundbreaking research projects and features insights from activists, international practitioners and policymakers that provide viewers with actionable takeaways.

This USIP event features lessons learned from cutting-edge research showing how nonviolent action affects political and economic inequality — particularly for historically excluded social and ethnic groups — using a cross-national statistical study and in-depth case studies from recent political transitions in Nepal and Indonesia. The research also specifically examines how movements can employ dialogue, negotiation and mediation to better ensure that political transitions following nonviolent action campaigns lead to greater inclusion for marginalized groups. This event will explore the important implications for both policy and practice in ensuring more inclusive democratization processes in the aftermath of nonviolent action. 

Speakers:

Jonathan Pinckney (Moderator)
Senior Researcher, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace 

Mohna Ansari
Member, National Human Rights Commission of Nepal

Subindra Bogati
Founder and Chief Executive, Nepal Peacebuilding Initiative

Titik Firawati
Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Northern Illinois University

Rosa Emilia Salamanca
Director, Institute for Social and Economic Research and Action

Deepak Thapa
Director, Social Science Baha

Ches Thurber
Assistant Professor, Northern Illinois University

7. Developments in Iran: Scandal, Schism and US-Iranian Relations | May 11, 2021 |  10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has sensationally admitted that the Foreign Ministry in Tehran has no power to shape strategic policies. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has also scolded Zarif for questioning Tehran’s regional policies, which are designed and implemented by the Revolutionary Guards. This deep schism inside the Islamic Republic raises some important questions at a time when the US is engaged in direct talks with the Iranians in Vienna. 

What is the balance of power between elected and unelected centers of powers in Tehran? How certain can the United States be about the ability of the Iranian state to collectively adhere to any nuclear agreement reached in Vienna? Where does this political reality in Tehran mean for Washington’s Iran policy that continues to impose sanctions on key entities in Iran, including the Revolutionary Guards?

Speakers:

Kenneth Katzman
Senior analyst, Congressional Research Service

Barbara Slavin
Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council 

Reza Vaisi 
Editor, Iran International TV

Alex Vatanka (Moderator)
Director, Iran Program, MEI

8. China-Russia Relations at the Dawn of the Biden Era | May 12, 2021 |  9:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment: Center for Global Policy | Register Here

While U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations have steadily deteriorated, China-Russia cooperation has grown in its stead. On the heels of the contentious U.S.-China Alaska summit, Chinese and Russian foreign ministers met in Guilin to discuss bilateral cooperation on a range of issues and even published a joint statement promoting a shared vision for global governance.

However, it is unclear to what extent Russian and Chinese interests will continue to converge. Although both nations have found a common adversary in the United States, any divergence of Russian or Chinese interests could create roadblocks to the two countries’ warming relations. Given China’s increasing economic and political clout, how will Russia manage the relationship in a way that concurrently maintains cooperation with China and protects its own national interests? Will China continue to view Russia as a security and economic partner? And how does the United States view and approach strong China-Russia ties?

Speakers:

Paul Haenle (Moderator)

Maurice R. Greenberg Director Chair, Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, Beijing China

Andrew S. Weiss

James Family Chair and Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment

Guan Guihai

Associate Professor and Executive Vice President, Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Peking University

Vita Spivak

Analyst, Control Risk

9. Middle East Security Establishments and Social Reform | May 12, 2021 |  2:00 PM ET | Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School | Register Here

Across the Middle East, the security sector has exercised substantial influence over media, education, and religious institutions, often to the detriment of their societies and American interests. Could they instead become a force for positive reform, and what role might their American allies play in helping them? Please join the Intelligence and Defense Projects for a seminar with Middle East expert Joseph Braude, who will discuss these issues and provide a number of policy suggestions.

Speakers:

Joseph Braude

President of the Center for Peace Communications

10. Czechmate? Russia’s Relations with Czechia go up in Smoke | May 13, 2021 |  10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

As the Czech Republic and Russia spar over groundbreaking reports of Russian intelligence operations in Czechia, key lessons emerge about the Kremlin’s tactics, goals, and the ability to exploit openings from foreign governments to attempt operations with impunity. Importantly, these operations were not just designed to harm Czechia—the 2014 destruction of arms depots holding weapons bound for Ukraine link these attacks to the Kremlin’s broader hybrid war against Kyiv, and show an early operation carried out by the same officers responsible for some of the most high-profile Kremlin attacks on foreign soil in recent years. With diplomatic expulsions and talk of further measures to hold Moscow accountable for killings on Czech soil, this crisis is fast becoming the latest significant flashpoint in Russia’s relations with Europe.

Speakers:

H.E. Jakub Kulhánek (Keynote)

Minister of Foreign Affairs for the Czech Republic,

Ambassador Daniel Fried

Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council

Jakub Janda

Director of the European Values Center for Security Policy

Ambassador Jaroslav Kurfurst

Special Envoy for the Eastern Partnership at the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Laure Mandeville

Senior Reporter at Le Figaro and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center

Ambassador John Herbst (Moderator)

Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.

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Stevenson’s army, May 5

– DNI warns Taliban threatens women’s rights in Afghanistan. The unclassified report is here.
– Peter Beinart warns end of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan raises risk of war.
– SAIS profs Barno and Bensahel propose an independent cyber force.  [I disagree. It would tit US in direction of massive cyber attacks and reduce emphasis on defense and resilience.  It would also be a bureaucratic nightmare  conflicting with all other government cyber activities.] 

– David Ignatius warns of Russian plans to control internet.
– Report says US now has ultra-quiet, “innocuous” drone.
– Survey shows changing US views of what constitutes security.
– Want more newsletters? Carnegie offers some.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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