Tag: South Asia

Peace Picks | January 25-29

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

1. Reflections on Mass Protests & Uprisings in the Arab World, Part 1 | January 25, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM ET | Arab Studies Institute | Register Here

December 17, 2020 marked the tenth anniversary of the start of the Arab uprisings in Tunisia. Beginning in 2011, mass uprisings swept North Africa and the Middle East, spreading from the shores of Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and the Eastern Province of the Arabian Peninsula. A “second wave” of mass protests and uprisings manifested during 2019 in Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon, and Iraq. The persistence of demands for popular sovereignty even in the face of re-entrenched authoritarianism, imperial intervention, and civil strife is a critical chapter in regional and global history. In an effort to mark, interrogate, and reflect on the Arab uprisings, we launch a yearlong set of events, reflections, and conversations. We hope to produce resources for educators, researchers, students, and journalists to understand the last decade of political upheaval historically and in the lived present. Over the past decade, a plethora of events, texts, and artistic and cultural productions have navigated the last decade’s spectrum of affective and material registers. We hope to contribute to these efforts through a historically grounded, theoretically rigorous approach that collaboratively interrogates the multiple questions the Arab uprisings continue to pose.

Speakers:

Amaney Jamal: Professor of Politics, Princeton University

Asli Bali: Professor of Law, UCLA

Rochelle Davis: Director, Center for Contemporary Arab Studies

Ahmad Dallal: Dean, Georgetown School of Foreign Service, Qatar

Ziad Abu-Rish: American Druze Foundation Fellow, Georgetown University

Lina Abou Habib: MENA Advisor, Global Fund for Women

Adam Hanieh: Professor, SOAS University of London

Rashid Khalidi: Professor, Columbia University

Bassam Haddad (Moderator): Director, Middle East and Islamic Studies Program, George Mason University

2. Defense Project Series: Dr. Peter Mansoor discusses, “How cultural biases influence success or failure in war” | January 25, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here

Join us as Dr. Pete Mansoor Mason Chair of Military History, Ohio State University, discusses the influence of culture on US and international militaries and the resulting impact on war strategies and the prospects for success.  The executive officer to General Petraeus during the Iraq surge in 2007-08, Pete Mansoor will talk about how biases and unstated assumptions impact the ability of militaries around the world to achieve success in conflicts.  This topic has become increasingly important in the past two decades.

Speakers:

Peter Mansoor: Mason Chair of Military History, The Ohio State University

3. Africa-Europe Relations in 2021 | January 26, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here

Europe’s Africa engagement is in the process of evolution. The ties between Africa and Europe are many. Forged through proximate geography and shared history there is much to draw upon in knitting the two together going forward. But some points of mutual benefit are as yet not fully realized as such, other areas are misinterpreted as problems rather than challenges with upside benefit if gripped adroitly.

This roundtable will focus on the state of the Africa-Europe relationship with its challenges and opportunities, and the role that Southern Europe could play in the process.

The question underpinning the Session is: Why shouldn’t the Africa/Europe relationship grow to be amongst the most important for each continent? What needs to occur to realise that vision?

The virtual roundtable will be held in English on the record with mandatory registration in advance.

Speakers:

Francisco André: Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Portugal
Lora Borissova: Senior Expert in the Cabinet of EU Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen
Emanuela Del Re: Deputy Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Italy
Theodore Murphy: Director, Africa Programme, ECFR

Arturo Varvelli (Moderator): Head, ECFR Rome

4. Defending the Seas: Gray-Zone Threats in the Maritime Domain | January 26, 2021 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM ET | American Enterprise Institute| Register Here

Most of the world’s trade — from electronics to fruit — travels by sea. The disruption of even a few sea-borne supply lines would immediately harm countries. The same goes for the roughly 300 undersea cables that carry the world’s internet traffic. Civilian activity’s reliance on the world’s oceans creates considerable opportunities for gray-zone aggression, the hostile acts between war and peace.

What can NATO member states and partners do to protect themselves from maritime gray-zone threats? Please join AEI’s Elisabeth Braw for a panel discussion on the importance of critical maritime infrastructure and how states can partner with civil societies to protect the seas from gray-zone threats.

Speakers:

Elisabeth Braw (Moderator): Resident Fellow, AEI

Andrew Lewis: Commander, Second Fleet, US Navy

Ewa Skoog Haslum: Chief, Royal Swedish Navy

5. How the Preservation of Afghan Culture Can Support Peace | January 27, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here

Afghanistan has made enormous economic, political, and social progress in the last 20 years. Often underappreciated, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism should play an important role in ongoing peace efforts as they are important for the overall prosperity and economic and societal growth. Given the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas in 2001 and other tragedies with longer term cultural, economic, and societal implications, it is appropriate that civil society, culture, and creative economies be a part of the ongoing peace negotiations set to determine the future of Afghanistan.

As we know from other countries, such as Vietnam or Cambodia, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism can play an important role in post-conflict economic recovery, providing jobs and livelihoods. It can also contribute to a positive national identity and pride. The proper management and preservation of a nation’s cultural treasures are essential for protecting minority rights, improving environmental protection, as well as strengthening communities in their sense of belonging and ownership, creating lasting and sustainable avenues for growth and development, and over time a more inclusive national narrative. Learn about the heritage of Afghanistan, efforts that have been taken to preserve and promote it, cultural heritage management as part of economic policy, reconciliation, cultural diplomacy, tourism, the benefits around supporting the creative economy, and learn about the role of culture in attaining peace.

Speakers:

Daniel F. Runde (Moderator): Senior Vice President, CSIS

Irina Bokova: Board Member, ARCH International

Luis Monreal: General Manager, Aga Khan Trust for Culture

Adela Raz: Afghanistan Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations

6. Imagining Future Airwars: What Turkish Successes in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya Might Foreshadow | January 28, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Over the last year, Turkey has pioneered novel utilizations of existing military technologies to yield highly effective drone relays, aerial reconnaissance methodologies, and multilayered air defense systems. In both Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, these innovations enabled the Turkish-backed side to reverse the initial tide of war. This Zoom event seeks to examine how these developments in the use of drones, anti-aircraft systems, and counter anti-aircraft technologies illuminate the shifting balance of power in Eurasia and Africa in 2021, and beyond.

Drawing on The Middle East Institute (MEI)’s recent publication, “Turning the Tide: How Turkey Won the War for Tripoli,” a diverse panel of experts will explore these issues and their possible implications on theatres as diverse as Ukraine, Yemen, the Arabian Gulf, the Sahel, and Somalia. We will also opine on how the US, EU, and NATO should be preparing for these new forms of aerial warfare.

Speakers:

Wolfgang Pusztai: Security and policy analyst; former Austrian Defense Attaché to Libya

Lieutenant General Michael Nagata: Distinguished senior fellow on National Security, MEI; former head, SOCCENT

Kitty Harvey: Former Naval Intelligence Officer; forthcoming book on Saudi Arabia and Iraq

Whitney Grespin: Visiting scholar, George Washington University; former advisor, Somali Ministry of Defense

Jason Pack (Moderator): President, Libya-Analysis LLC; non-resident scholar, MEI

7. The complexities of unraveling US sanctions and returning to the JCPOA | January 28, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

The January 20 inauguration of President Joe Biden has raised expectations for a quick return to compliance by both the United States and Iran to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Biden administration officials have promised to rejoin the JCPOA if Iran returns to strict compliance with the agreement, but won’t be as simple as rolling back all sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration.

The mosaic of new sanctions the Trump administration levied on Iran includes hundreds of new specific targets and new sectors, both primary and secondary. In “Rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal: Not So Easy,” author Brian O’Toole, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, defines several distinct buckets for the various sanctions, and explains how the Biden administration might choose to address each bucket.

The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative and GeoEconomics Center invite you to a discussion of this paper and the prospects for US diplomacy with Iran under the Biden administration. The discussion will feature the author alongside Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, Kenneth Katzman, senior analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Congressional Research Service, and Ali Vaez, Middle East fellow, Iran project director and senior advisor to the President at the International Crisis Group, and moderated by Ms. Barbara Slavin, director, Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

Speakers:

Kelsey Davenport: Director, Nonproliferation Policy, Arms Control Association

Kenneth Katzman: Senior Analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf, Congressional Research Service

Brian O’Toole: Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council

Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director and Senior Advisor to the President, International Crisis Group

Barbara Slavin (Moderator): Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council

8. Arab Views on Great Power Competition: Unpacking Arab Barometer Surveys | January 28, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

The latest cycle of Arab Barometer, survey’s polled local opinion of great power (Russia, China, USA) foreign policy in the MENA region. The Middle East has been a significant arena for all three powers in recent years, and foreign policy analysts expect this to be true for years to come. Meanwhile, countries in the region will continue to be caught in the middle of foreign interests and shifting alliances between local states.

Join us for a discussion and presentation of the results of the latest wave, and a panel of Wilson experts weigh in on the significance for local policy and global actors alike.

Speakers:

Lucille Green: Schwartzman Scholar, Tsinghua University

Michael Robbins: Director, Arab Barometer

Asher Orkaby: Fellow; Research Scholar, Transregional Institute, Princeton University

James F. Jeffrey: Chair of the Middle East Program; Former Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS

Marissa Khurma (Moderator): Program Director, Middle East Program

9. The South Asian Security Landscape | January 28, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here

South Asian Voices Visiting Fellows Asma Khalid, Chirayu Thakkar, Fizza Batool, and Saurav Sarkar present their research and policy recommendations on some of the subcontinent’s most pertinent strategic issues. These presentations are the result of a year-long fellowship with the Stimson Center South Asia Program. Fellows will examine the changing deterrence landscape in South Asia, U.S.-India cooperation in multilateral institutions, the role of Pakistani political parties in the Afghanistan peace process, and the potential impact of the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) on intra-Afghan negotiations.

Speakers:

Asma Khalid: Research Associate, Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research

Chirayu Thakkar: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, National University of Singapore

Fizza Batool: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, University of Karachi

Saurav Sarkar: Research Associate, Centre for Air Power Studies

Brigitta Schuchert (Moderator): Research Associate and Managing Editor of South Asian Voices, Stimson Center

10. The Future of Democracy in Asia | January 29, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here

Asia represents a critical frontier for democratic governance that will shape the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. Democratic states in the region face increasing strain from an interconnected set of challenges across political, economic, and cultural dynamics. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty about American strategy, the implications of emerging technologies, and support for illiberal populism and authoritarianism by policymakers and foreign actors have tested democratic norms in the region.

On Friday, January 29, as part of the initiative on Democracy in Asia, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host an event examining the health of democracy in Asia. Following opening remarks by Brookings President John R. Allen, Taiwan Digital Minister Audrey Tang will deliver a pre-recorded keynote address and respond to questions. A moderated panel with regional experts and scholars will then explore the ongoing intraregional challenges and trends affecting democratic governments and institutions across the Indo-Pacific. Following the conversation, panelists will take questions from the audience.

Speakers:

John Allen: President, Brookings Institution

Audrey Tang: Digital Minister of Taiwan

Ryan Hass (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies

Richard C. Bush: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies

Mireya Solis: Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies

John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

Maiko Ichihara: Associate Professor, Hitotsubashi University; Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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Peace Picks | December 14 – December 18, 2020

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

1. After Flood and Revolution: Sudanese Responses to a Lagging Transitional Government | December 14, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

In 2018, the Sudanese Revolution gained prominence on social media and drew international attention to the movement taking place against Omar Al-Bashir’s 30 year dictatorship in the country. Widespread protests were sparked by drastic policies meant to prevent economic collapse such as the slashing of bread and fuel subsidies. Two years later, grievances remain as Sudan continues to face a multitude of issues including record breaking floods, poor governance, incoming Ethiopians and Eritreans fleeing conflict, and persistent militia violence. The Sudanese people have begun to lose patience with the Transitional Government’s inability to sufficiently reform the system and respond to crises.  

How has Sudan adapted to both environmental and political upheaval? What changes have occured since Omar Al-Bashir was ousted? How does Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok plan to move forward with the reconstruction of Sudan’s constitutional system, and how could the violence in Ethiopia and Eritrea affect that? In what ways, do we see Sudan’s relationship with foreign allies changing amidst this reconstruction? In this panel, the Middle East Institute (MEI)  brings together experts to explore what the future of Sudan looks like, and what the revolution succeeded and failed to bring the people. 

Speakers

Isma’il Kushkush: Independent Sudanese journalist

Baha Sharief: Women’s economic empowerment advocate

Jérôme Tubiana: Africa desk director, International Federation for Human Rights

Mohamed Soliman, moderator: Non-resident scholar, MEI

Additional speakers TBA

2. Reducing the Nuclear Threat: A 5-Point Plan | December 14, 2020 | 1:00 – 2:00 PM ET | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here

A global nuclear arms race is underway, and the threat of nuclear war is growing. Drivers of escalation—ballistic missile defense, nonstrategic nuclear weapons, and China’s nuclear modernization—cannot be easily managed through treaties, so what can be done to mitigate the real risks of the nuclear contest?

Please join us for a conversation featuring James Acton, as he shares insights from a new Carnegie report, “Revamping Nuclear Arms Control: Five Near-Term Proposals,” co-authored with Carnegie Endowment scholars Thomas MacDonald and Pranay Vaddi. Acton will be joined by Kristin Ven Bruusgaard of the University of Oslo. Anita Friedt, who served as a U.S. principal deputy assistant secretary of state, will moderate.

Speakers

James M. Acton: Jessica T. Mathews Chair, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Kristin Ven Bruusgaard: postdoctoral fellow in the Political Science Department at the University of Oslo.

Anita Friedt: former U.S. principal deputy assistant secretary of state.

3. Ten Years After the Arab Spring: Middle East Writers Reflect on the Arab Uprising | December 14, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

The Middle East Institute’s Arts and Culture Center and the Alan Cheuse International Writers Center at George Mason University are pleased to mark the 10th anniversary of the Arab Spring with a series of monthly talks with leading writers from the region. Ten Years After The Arab Spring, which launches this December, will feature the voices of award-winning writers from Arab Spring countries reflecting on the past ten years through the lens of their writings and personal experiences.

The inaugural event will feature award-winning Tunisian writer Yamen Manai discussing his newly translated novel The Ardent Swarm (originally published as L’Amas Ardent in 2017). In his novel, Manai celebrates Tunisia’s rich oral culture, a tradition abounding in wry, often fatalistic humor. The book is a stirring allegory about a country in the aftermath of a revolution, told through the simple and hermetic life of Sidi, a bee whisperer.

Speakers

Yamen Manai was born in 1980 in Tunis and currently lives in Paris. Both a writer and an engineer, Manai explores in his prose the intersections of past and present, and tradition and technology. 

Matthew Davis is the founding director of the Alan Cheuse International Writers Center. He’s the author of When Things Get Dark: A Mongolian Winter’s Tale and his work has appeared in the New Yorker, the Atlantic, the Washington Post Magazine and Guernica, among other places.

4. Vanishing Media Freedoms Across South Asia | December 15, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:30 AM ET | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here

Across South Asia, an already challenging climate for free media appears to have further deteriorated in the past year. The 2020 World Press Freedom Index has seen India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka slip down the annual rankings, with all four South Asian countries in the bottom third worldwide. The challenges to free media in South Asia are myriad—particularly threats to journalists’ safety and freedom, repressive actions and overt censorship by governments, unravelling business models, and a chaotic online environment. In many cases, the coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated the threats that journalists and media outlets face as economic pressures have intensified and governments seek to further restrict media freedoms.

Speakers

Tamanna Salikuddin, opening remarks: Director, South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace

Shahidul Alam: Managing Director, Drik Picture Library Ltd. (Bangladesh)

Dilrukshi Handunnetti: Executive Director, Center for Investigative Reporting (Sri Lanka)

Siddharth Varadarajan: Founding Editor, The Wire (India)

Cyril Almeida, moderator: Visiting Senior Expert, U.S. Institute of Peace; Former Assistant Editor, Dawn Newspaper (Pakistan)

5. Foreign Policy is Climate Policy: New Modes of Multilateralism & the Call for a More Equitable and Just World | December 16, 2020 | 3:30 – 5:00 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

How can the foreign policy community harness the transformative power of the new leadership coalitions that have emerged to strengthen the UNFCCC process—an indispensable mode of diplomacy? And as decision-makers push forward on climate action, how can they incorporate the increasingly compelling calls for social and racial justice into efforts to address climate change? 

Speakers

Lauren Herzer Risi, introduction: Project Director, Environmental Change and Security Program

Maxine Burkett, moderator: Global Fellow; Professor, William S. Richardson School of Law, University of Hawai’i

Jennifer Austin: Director of Policy and Strategy, COP26 High Level Climate Champions team

Julie Cerqueira: Executive Director, U.S. Climate Alliance

Rt Hon David Lammy: Member of Parliament for Tottenham, Shadow Secretary of State for Justice, United Kingdom

Elan Strait: Director, U.S. Climate Campaigns, World Wildlife Fund; Manager, We Are Still In

6. The Creeping Threat of Climate Change | December 16, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Climate change is slowly stamping an imprint on Egypt’s environment, culture, and economy. The most obvious of these challenges is the rising scarcity of water. Egypt is already one of the world’s most water scarce countries; while the UN assesses water scarcity at 1,000 cm3 per person annually, Egypt has less than 560 cm3 per person. Rapid population growth, urbanization, desertification, and unpredictable weather patterns are all taking an unrelenting toll on the country’s strained water resources, while fear is climbing over loss of water from the Nile if the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam holds back water during droughts.

Just as worrisome is rising heat. This threatens health, water supplies and, in a country where over 30 percent of the labour force is directly involved in agriculture, Egypt’s harvests.

While there has been much work done on water conservation, climate change mitigation policy is unclear. Much of the action is handled by the private sector which is not always invested in the strictest environmental standards. Is it possible to tackle the oncoming threat while balancing mitigation with the need for development?

Please join us for the first of a series of events on climate change mitigation, part of the Middle East Institute’s Egypt program’s upcoming work on hidden threats and imminent challenges.

Speakers

Abla Abdel Latif: Chair, Presidential Advisory Council for Economic Development; executive director and director of research, Egyptian Center for Economic Studies 

Sarah El-Battouty: Founder and chairperson, ECOnsult

Mirette F. Mabrouk, moderator: Senior fellow and director, Egypt program, MEI 

Additional speakers TBD

7. China’s Influence on Conflict Dynamics in South Asia | December 16, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM ET | United States Institute for Peace| Register Here

China’s expanding presence in South Asia is reshaping the region, and along the way exacerbating tensions in regional politics and U.S.-China relations from the Himalayan mountains to the Indian Ocean. As the United States works to fulfill its vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region and to respond to a more assertive China, the final report from USIP’s bipartisan Senior Study Group (SSG) on China and South Asia serves as a road map for the next U.S. administration to advance the Indo portion of that vision.

The SSG’s final report—the fourth in a series—examines China’s influence in South Asian conflict zones and fragile states from a variety of angles. Drawing on the insights of the group’s senior experts, former policymakers, and retired diplomats, the report includes top-level findings and actionable recommendations. 

Join the co-chairs and members of the SSG as they discuss their work and the report’s conclusions. The conversation will tackle topics such as U.S. interests in South Asia amid China’s growing role, Beijing’s interests in and approach toward the region, China-Pakistan relations, China-India relations, and China’s relations with the smaller South Asian states. 

Speakers

Jennifer Staats, introductory remarks: Director of East and Southeast Asia Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace; USIP China Senior Study Group Series Executive Director

Richard G. Olson, report briefing: Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace; Co-Chair, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group

Randall G. Schriver, report briefing: Chairman of the Board, The Project 2049 Institute; Co-Chair, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group

Alyssa Ayres: Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group

Patrick Cronin: Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group

Sameer Lalwani: Senior Fellow and Director of the South Asia Program, Stimson Center; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group

Anja Manuel: Co-Founder and Partner, Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group

Daniel Markey: Senior Research Professor in International Relations, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group

Tamanna Salikuddin: Director of South Asia Programs, United States Institute of Peace; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group

Vikram J. Singh: Senior Advisor, Asia Center, United States Institute of Peace; Member, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group

Jacob Stokes: Senior Policy Analyst, China Program, U.S. Institute of Peace; Project Director, USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group

8. The Biden Administration and Iran—Confrontation or Accommodation | December 17, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here

Iran will almost certainly  be a top priority of the incoming Biden Administration. Not only are dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions expected to be high on the U.S. agenda; but escalating tensions on the ground between Iran, Israel and the United States in 2020 may well intensify in 2021 and the United States will need to prepared to contain them.

How do Tehran and Jerusalem intend to approach the new administration; what priorities, calculations, and attitudes will shift? And how will the Biden foreign policy team deal with the complex challenge of reentering and/or renegotiating the Iran nuclear accord as well as engaging the other international parties still committed to the JPCOA? Finally, what role will domestic politics in Washington, Tehran, and Jerusalem play in shaping events  as they unfold? 

Speakers

Aaron David Miller: senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, focusing on U.S. foreign policy.

Suzanne Maloney: vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She previously worked on Middle East issues in the State Department and in the private sector and has published three books on Iran.

Karim Sadjadpour: senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.

Michael Singh: Lane-Swig Senior Fellow and managing director at The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council.

9. The Arab Spring, Ten Years On: What Have We Learned and Where Are We Going?| December 17, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:15 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here

The popular protests that unfolded across the Arab region in 2011 seemed poised to usher in a new era of freedom and democracy. Ten years on, however, the future does not seem as bright. Tunisia is the only Arab country to have successfully transitioned into a democracy; other countries have either reverted to strong authoritarian rule or have become mired in devastating civil wars.

The underlying socio-economic and political factors that led to the “Arab Spring” continue to drive unrest across the region. The recent protests in Algeria, Iraq, and Sudan show that social activists have learned from the mistakes of the past and adopted new tactics, forcing those in power to make unexpected concessions. In turn, Arab leaders have also adapted, fighting back calls for change with targeted propaganda campaigns and repressive crackdowns.

The Brookings Doha Center invites you to attend a webinar that takes stock of the Arab Spring and its impact on the region over the past decade. The discussion will address the following questions: On balance, what was the outcome of the Arab Spring? How have Arab social movements and leaders evolved in the years since? Can we expect new protests in countries experiencing economic and political strains? And how can the region address the demands of its people and build an inclusive social contract?

Speakers

Joseph Bahout: Director at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs – American University of Beirut

Lina Khatib: Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme – Chatham House

Michele Dunne: Director of the Middle East Program – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Nader Kabbani, moderator: Director of Research – Brookings Doha CenterSenior Fellow – Global Economy and Development

10. Democracy and Corruption in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Two Years into the Tshisekedi Administration | December 18, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here

Nearly two years after the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) saw a peaceful transfer of power to President Félix Tshisekedi following a nevertheless flawed election, numerous significant political and economic developments have transpired in the country. The president’s chief of staff, Vital Kamerhe, was convicted on corruption charges; violent conflicts have increased in the eastern DRC; civil society has mounted increasing anti-corruption campaigns; and political maneuvering is already starting in preparation for the 2023 elections. Meanwhile, in a bipartisan letter, the U.S. Senate highlighted the need for urgent anti-corruption and electoral reforms in the country and the International Monetary Fund is considering a significant loan to stabilize the country’s economy, pending anti-corruption reforms.

Speakers

Michael E. O’Hanlon, moderator: Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director – Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Africa Security InitiativeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and TechnologyThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair

Sasha Lezhnev: Deputy Director of Policy – The Sentry Project

Mvemba P. Dizolele: Senior Associate (Non-Resident) – CSIS

John G. Tomaszewski: Professional Staffer – Senate Foreign Relations Committee

André Wameso: Ambassador – Democratic Republic of the Congo

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Peace Picks | September 8 – 11, 2020

  • Election 2020: Challenges & Opportunities for U.S. Policy in the Middle East | September 8, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here

    The Middle East is going through one of the most unstable periods in its recent history. Each country in the region faces its own unique challenges, but there are also cross-cutting issues ranging from proxy conflict and terrorism to climate change and water security that permeates throughout the region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to launch Election 2020: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy in the Middle East. The briefs in this book offer policy insights from MEI scholars on key issues in the Middle East and serve as a contribution to the broader discussion about the challenges and opportunities for US policy in the region.

    What are the key issues the next administration must prioritize? In what ways can the US pursue and achieve its policy goals in the Middle East through diplomacy, conflict resolution, and military engagement? How can a concerted regional strategy address region-wide issues and their global impacts?

    Speakers:

    Amb. Gerald Feierstein (Moderator):
    Senior Vice President, Middle East Institute

    Paul Salem: President, Middle East Institute

    Randa Slim: Senior Fellow & Director, Conflict Resolution & Track II Dialogues Program, Middle East Institute

    Gen. Joseph Votel: Distinguished Senior Fellow on National Security, Middle East Institute
  • U.S. Policy in the Middle East: A Conversation With Assistant Secretary of State David Schenker | September 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here

    The United States has been very active diplomatically in the Middle East as of late, despite public focus elsewhere, on issues ranging from the crisis in Lebanon, to maritime tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, to U.A.E.-Israeli normalization of relations.

    On September 9, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host a discussion with David Schenker, assistant secretary of Near Eastern affairs at the U.S. Department of State to examine the current state of U.S policy and diplomacy in the region and its future trajectory. Assistant Secretary Schenker will be returning from a mission to the region, which includes stops in Kuwait, Qatar, and Lebanon and will offer thoughts on his recent meetings. Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, will moderate the conversation.

    Speakers:

    Suzanne Maloney (Introduction):
    Vice President & Director, Foreign Policy, Brookings

    David Schenker: Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. Department of State

    Natan Sachs: Director, Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings
  • Rising Political Polarization in Southeast Asia | September 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM CEST | Carnegie Endowment | Register Here

    Rising levels of political polarization are hurting democracy in many Southeast Asian countries. Drawing on a recent Carnegie Endowment report on the topic, this event will examine three critical cases—Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand—to gain a regional understanding of why polarization is increasing, its political effects, and how political and civic actors can take steps to address it.

    This event is being held in collaboration with the Institute of Asian Studies.

    Speakers:

    Thomas Carothers:
    Senior Vice President for Studies, Carnegie Endowment

    Janjira Sombatpoonsiri: Associate Fellow, German Institute for Global & Area Studies

    Naruemon Thabchumpon: Deputy Director for Research Affairs, Institute of Asian Studies, Chulalongkorn University

    Eve Warburton: Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Asia Research Institute, National Research University of Singapore

    Bridget Welsh: Honorary Research Associate, Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham Malaysia
  • A New Direction for U.S. Policy on North Korea | September 9, 2020 | 5:00 – 6:30 PM EDT | U.S. Institute of Peace | Register Here

    Since the February 2019 Hanoi Summit failed to reach an agreement, the United States and North Korea have been mired in a diplomatic stalemate with minimal negotiations. At the same time, Pyongyang has continued to advance its nuclear and ballistic missile programs while reversing many of the inter-Korean tension reduction measures achieved in 2018. The next U.S. administration, whether Republican or Democratic, will have the opportunity to break this deadlock with a North Korean regime that is increasingly confident in its nuclear capabilities but still insecure about its longevity.

    The next U.S. administration will encounter a North Korean regime that has promised to demonstrate a “new strategic weapon” in its nuclear weapons program and vowed to withstand the international sanctions campaign.  The policy approach taken by the next administration will help determine whether Pyongyang will cling to its nuclear weapons or if the two countries will set a new course for building peace and reducing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

    Speakers:

    Frank Aum (Moderator):
    Senior Expert, North Korea, U.S. Institute of Peace

    Christine Ahn: Founder & Executive Director, Women Cross DMZ; Co-Founder, Korea Peace Network

    Suzanne Dimaggio: Chair, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft; Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment

    Markus Garlauskas: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; Former National Intelligence Officer for North Korea, Office of the Director for National Intelligence

    Van Jackson: Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Victoria University of Wellington; Former Senior Defense Strategist, U.S. Department of Defense

    Ankit Panda: Stanton Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment
  • Ecological Threats to Peace | September 10, 2020 | 1:00 – 2:00 PM EDT | U.S. Institute of Peace | Register Here

    Global warming, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels are already adversely affecting food and water security throughout the world—leaving the least resilient countries with an increased risk of political instability, social fragmentation, and economic collapse. A more accurate measurement of levels of exposure to tomorrow’s ecological threats is key to helping these countries maintain peace today and can enable others to better prepare and adapt for the future.

    The new Ecological Threat Register (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, synthesizes and visualizes data on environmental indicators to estimate which countries, regions, and areas are most vulnerable to environment-induced conflict. In particular, the ETR underscores that 141 countries are vulnerable to ecological threats, and that approximately 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by ecological disasters in the next 30 years.

    Speakers:

    Tyler Beckelman (Moderator):
    Director, International Partnerships, U.S. Institute of Peace

    Sagal Abshir: Nonresident Fellow, Center on International Cooperation, New York University

    Michael Collins: Executive Director, Institute for Economics & Peace

    Dr. Joseph Hewitt: Vice President for Policy, Learning, & Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Jihadism at a Crossroads | September 11, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 PM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here

    Almost 20 years after 9/11, jihadi groups are no longer in the spotlight. However, ISIS, al-Qaida, and al-Shabab remain active, and new groups have emerged. The movement as a whole is evolving, as is the threat it poses.

    On September 11, the Center for Middle East Policy will host a virtual panel event to discuss the current status of jihadi groups. The panel will feature Thomas Hegghammer, senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment and author of the new book, “The Caravan: Abdallah Azzam and the Rise of Global Jihad.”Other panelists will include Tricia Bacon, assistant professor at American University, and Bruce Riedel, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Brookings Senior Fellow Daniel Byman will moderate the discussion.

    Speakers:

    Daniel L Byman: Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings

    Tricia Bacon: Professional Lecturer, School of Public Affairs, American University

    Thomas Hegghammer: Senior Research Fellow, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment

    Bruce Riedel: Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings
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Peace Picks September 16-22

1.Israeli Elections and Minority Communities|September 17, 2019|10:00 AM-11:30AM|Middle East Institute|1763 N Street NW, Washington District of Columbia 20036|Register Here

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to present a panel hosted in partnership with the Foundation for Middle East Peace and the New Israel Fund to discuss how minority rights have factored into Israeli parliamentary elections in 2019, both the first election in April and the snap elections taking place on September 17th. Like the first election, this second round of votes again systematically ignored issues facing Israel’s minority communities, including Palestinian citizens of Israel and Bedouin communities living in the Negev. This panel will discuss those issues and examine how Israel’s major political parties and its leaders have treated minority communities on the campaign trail.

This event is part of the George and Rhonda Salem Family Foundation Lecture Series. 

Co-sponsor:

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to sponsor this event in conjunction with the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP).

Featuring:

Ayesha Ziadna is the Director of Sabeel Leadership Institute of the Arab-Jewish Center for Empowerment, Equality, and Cooperation Negev Institute for Strategies of Peace and Economic Development (AJEEC NISPED)

Tal Avrech joined the Negev Coexistence Forum for Civil Equality (NCF)  in 2018 and is currently responsible for international relations and NCF’s head researcher

Harry Reis is the Director for Policy and Strategy at the New Israel Fund

Lara Friedman (moderator) is the President of the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP)

2.Future Projections for the Middle East: Game Changers for 2030 and Beyond|September 19, 2019|9:00 AM-2:15 PM|Middle East Institute|1763 N Street NW, Washington District of Columbia 20036|Register Here

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a conference on future projections for the Middle East, assessing projected trends, drives, policy responses, and future challenges for the MENA region in 2030 and beyond.

Agenda

9:00–9:15 AM | Welcoming Remarks and Overview of the Day

Paul Salem President, MEI

Amb. Gerald Feierstein Senior vice president, MEI

9:15-9:45AM | Keynote Address: Trends in Tech, Cyber, Security and their Repercussions in the Middle East

Richard A. Clarke Chairman, MEI Board of Governors

9:45AM-10:55AM | Panel I: The MENA Region in 2030: Trends and Trajectories

This interactive panel will examine the forces over the next 10-15 years that will cause/drive the greatest change in the region. How do we foresee some of these forces influencing each other, accelerating, slowing, and shaping change? What projections can we make of things likely to be significantly different in the region in 2030?

Elhum Haghighat Professor and chair, Department of Political Science, City University of New York

Amal Kandeel Director, Climate Change and Environment Program, MEI

Josh Kerbel Research faculty, National Intelligence University

Paul Salem President, MEI

Steven Kenney (moderator) Founder and principal, Foresight Vector LLC

10:55AM-11:15AM | Coffee Break

11:15AM-11:45AM | Remarks:

His Excellency Dr. Thani Ahmed Al Zeyoudi Minister of Climate Change and Environment, United Arab Emirates

11:45AM-12:55PM | Panel II: Policy Responses to Future Challenges

This discussion will focus on policy areas that will reflect the greatest change in 2030 relative to today. What social-cultural, technological, or other forces will force enable major changes in policies affecting/governing the region? How will policymaking/policymakers address the interrelationships between issue areas?

Ferid Belhaj Vice president, Middle East and North Africa, World Bank

Laila Iskandar Former Minister of Environment, Egypt

Ruba Husari Scholar, MEI

Michael Nagata Former director of Strategic Operational Planning, National Counterterrorism Center

Ambassador (ret.) Gerald Feierstein Senior Vice President, MEI

Patrick Tucker (moderator) Technology editor, Defense One

12:55-1:30 | Lunch Buffet

3.Washington Humanitarian Forum|September 19, 2019|8:30 AM-3:30 PM|Center for Strategic and International Studies| 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036|Register Here

The CSIS Humanitarian Agenda is hosting the first annual Washington Humanitarian Forum on September 19th, 2019. This full-day conference will focus on humanitarian challenges that sit at the intersection of United States national security and foreign policy priorities. This year’s theme is Unlocking Humanitarian Access – Opportunities for U.S. Leadership.
 
The Washington Humanitarian Forum will include the launch of a report produced by the CSIS Task Force on Humanitarian Access. The Task Force, co-chaired by Senator Todd Young (R-IN) and Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), looked at ways in which denial, delay, and diversion prevents humanitarian assistance from reaching the most vulnerable populations, and vice versa, in conflict-affected areas. The Task Force report analyzes challenges in priority countries for the United States and includes recommendations for how United States leadership can mitigate the most pressing access challenges.

AGENDA

8:00 a.m. – 8:30 a.m. | Check-in and Coffee Networking

8:30 a.m. – 9:15 a.m. | Opening Plenary

  • Video AddressSenator Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Senator Todd Young (R-IN)
  • Introductions: J. Stephen MorrisonSenior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center, CSIS
  • Opening Keynote: Mark Lowcock, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 
  • Moderator: Kimberly Flowers, Director, Humanitarian Agenda & Global Food Security Projects, CSIS  

9:15 a.m. – 10:15 a.m. | Task Force Report Launch

  • Ambassador Ertharin Cousin, former Executive Director, UN World Food Programme
  • Patricia McIlreavy, Vice President for Policy and Practice, InterAction 
  • Dr. Paul B. Spiegel, Director, Center for Humanitarian Health, Johns Hopkins University 
  • Anne Witkowsky, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Stability and Humanitarian Affairs, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, U.S. Department of Defense 
  • Moderator: Kimberly Flowers, Director, Humanitarian Agenda and Global Food Security Project, CSIS 

10:15 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. | Networking Coffee Break

10:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. | Morning Breakout Panels

 
The Humanitarian Implications of Cyber Conflict

  • Colonel Gary Corn, Director and Adjunct Professor, Washington College of Law, American University
  • Shanthi Kalathil, Senior Director, International Forum for Democratic Studies, National Endowment for Democracy
  • Moderator: James Andrew Lewis, Senior Vice President and Director, Technology Policy Program, CSIS

Yemen’s Crisis

  • Dr. Aisha Jumaan, Founder and President, Yemen Relief and Reconstruction Foundation
  • Peter Salisbury, Consulting Senior Analyst on Yemen, International Crisis Group
  • Sheba Crocker, Vice President for Humanitarian Policy and Practice, CARE
  • Moderator: Jon Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbiegniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program, CSIS

Access in the Hot Zone: Navigating the DRC Ebola Outbreak

  • Admiral Tim Ziemer, Senior Deputy Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Democracy Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance, USAID
  • Ella Watson-Stryker, Humanitarian Representative, Médecins Sans Frontières
  • Jeremy Konyndyk, Senior Policy Fellow, Center for Global Development 
  • Moderator: J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center, CSIS 

12:00 p.m. – 1:00 p.m. | Lunch

1:00 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. | Afternoon Breakout Panels

 
The Growing Humanitarian Access Challenge in Eastern Ukraine

  • Alexander Hug, Former Deputy Chief Monitor, Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
  • Melinda Haring, Editor, UkraineAlert, Atlantic Council 
  • Margot Ellis, Senior Deputy Assistant Administrator, Europe and Eurasia, USAID 
  • Moderator: Heather ConleySenior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program, CSIS 

Rethinking Nigeria’s Response to the Boko Haram Crisis

  • Brandon Kendhammer, Associate Professor of Political Science, Ohio University
  • Fati Abubakar, Documentary photographer and Public Health Worker 
  • Ambassador Alex Laskaris, former Deputy to the Commander for Civil-Military Engagement, U.S. Africa Command 
  • Dafna Hochman Rand, Vice President for Policy and Research, Mercy Corps 
  • Moderator: Judd Devermont, Director, Africa Program, CSIS 

A New Age of Humanitarian Reporting?

  • Heba Aly, Director, The New Humanitarian
  • Arwa Damon, Senior International Correspondent, CNN
  • Sherine Tadros, Head of New York Office & UN Representative, Amnesty International
  • Moderator: Jacob Kurtzer, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda, CSIS 

2:30 p.m. – 2:45 p.m. | Networking Coffee Break

2:45 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. | Closing Remarks

  • Closing KeynoteJan Egeland, Secretary General, Norwegian Refugee Council
  • Moderator: Kimberly Flowers, Director, Humanitarian Agenda & Global Food Security Project, CSIS 

4. Competitive Security Dynamics in Southern Asia: Conflicts, Challenges, and Choices|September 19, 2019|9:00AM-11:30AM| The Stimson Center|1211 Connecticut Ave, NW, 8th Floor Washington, DC 20036|Register Here

The past six months have seen major disruptions in stability across southern Asia. As tensions in Kashmir continue to simmer, a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan is up for debate, and nationalist discourses gain traction in the region, all eyes are on the strategic dynamics in Southern Asia. This year–the 20th anniversary of the Kargil crisis between India and Pakistan–provides a natural point for reflection, particularly in light of the ripple effects of the February 2019 Balakot airstrikes. What lessons can we learn from the history of southern Asian crises and how are emerging regional dynamics likely to shape future scenarios going forward?

Featuring:

Lt. General (ret.) Waheed Arshad, Former Chief of General Staff, Pakistan Army

Suhasini Haidar, Diplomatic Editor, The Hindu Newspaper

Nasim Zehra, author of From Kargil to the Coup: Events that Shook Pakistan

Vice Admiral (ret.) Vijay Shankar, Distinguished Fellow, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies

Rabia Akhtar, Assistant Professor and Director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research, University of Lahore


5. What’s Next for Libya|September 19, 2019 9:00AM-10:30AM|Brookings Institution|Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC, 20036|Register Here

The past year has seen no end to the turbulence plaguing Libya since the ouster of Moammar al-Gadhafi in 2011, with armed factions vying for control of the country’s strategic assets and United Nations-facilitated negotiations leading nowhere. While the self-styled Libyan National Army of General Khalifa Haftar continues, unsuccessfully, to try to take over the country militarily, the internationally-recognized government of Prime Minister Fayez Serraj in Tripoli, propped up by militias opposed to Haftar, retains control over major institutions and sources of national wealth. Weapons of increasing sophistication and lethality are flowing to the opposing sides, in violation of U.N. sanctions and pitting foreign powers against each other, with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt (with French support) backing Haftar, and Turkey and Qatar backing Serraj.

Meanwhile, facing a stagnant economy and constant threats to infrastructure, the Libyan people are caught in the crossfire of this protracted jockeying. Unchecked migration and the threat of extremist groups taking hold in the country’s contested spaces likewise make Libya’s internal situation a security concern for Europe and the United States. Solving the civil war in Libya would restore needed stability to a strategically vital part of northern Africa while laying the groundwork for the prosperity of the Libyan people.

On September 19, the Brookings Institution will hold an event on the state of affairs in Libya. Questions from the audience will follow the panelists’ conversation.

Featuring

  • Michael E. O’Hanlon, Brookings Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy
  • Jeffrey Feltman, Brookings John C. Whitehead Visiting Fellow in International Diplomacy
  • Frederic Wehrey, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
  • Giovanna de Maio, Center on the United States and Europe Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy
  • Karim Mezran, The Atlantic Council Senior Fellow, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East

6. Red Sea Rivalries: Middle East Competition in the Horn of Africa|September 20, 2019|10:30AM-12:00PM|United States Institute of Peace|2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037|Register Here

A new geopolitical paradigm is emerging in the Horn of Africa: Middle Eastern states are playing an increasingly assertive role throughout the region. As Sudan and Ethiopia undergo their most significant political transitions since the Cold War—affecting the future of nearly 150 million people—the jostling for dominance among the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, on the one hand, and Turkey and Qatar, on the other, is fueling instability and insecurity in an already fractious region.

As part of the U.S. Institute of Peace’s ongoing “Red Sea Rising” multi-track initiative, please join us for the release of the International Crisis Group’s forthcoming report unpacking the regional goals, motivations, and often conflicting aims of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. 

The report, based on conversations with senior officials on both sides of the Red Sea, examines how outside forces are jockeying to build political influence and carve out pivotal positions in the Horn of Africa’s emerging economy. At this historic juncture for the region, Crisis Group researchers will present the report’s main findings, followed by a panel discussion with experts from the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. Join the conversation with #RedSeaRisingUSIP.

Speakers

Amb. Johnnie Carson, opening remarks, Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace

Robert Malley, opening remarks, President and CEO, International Crisis Group

Elizabeth Dickinson, presenter, Senior Analyst for the Arabian Peninsula, International Crisis Group

Dino Mahtani, presenter, Deputy Director, Africa Program, International Crisis Group

Payton Knopf, moderator, Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace



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Neutrality of sorts

The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) hosted a discussion on March 11 about how Pakistan navigates the Saudi Arabia-Iran rivalry, with Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at Middle East Institute. He was joined by Ankit Panda, Senior Editor at The Diplomat and Karen Young, Resident Scholar at American Enterprise Institute.

Panda spoke about the competition of Saudi Arabia and Iran in South Asia, mainly in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan has historically sought to play a neutral role in the Saudi-Iranian conflict. It remained neutral in the Saudi-led Decisive Storm campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. The 5000 troops Pakistan sent to Saudi Arabia were intended to protect the Kingdom’s borders, not to get involved in Yemen’s war. In a bid to avoid heightened tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran following the Saudi Arabia’s execution of prominent Shia Sheikh, Nimr Al-Nimr, Pakistan tried to mediate between the two countries. While its neutrality has been successful so far, it will not prevent Pakistan, if forced to pick sides, from supporting Saudi Arabia over Iran, which was unhappy with Pakistan joining the Islamic Military Counterterrorism coalition (MCTC) led by Saudi Arabia.

Looking at the relationship from an economic perspective, Young claims that Saudi Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)’s visit to South Asia targeted mainly India and China, not only Pakistan. In Islamabad, he had two goals:

  • to strengthen military relations and build a regional anti-terrorism coalition;
  • to gain access to nuclear technology.

Pakistan exports light weapons to Saudi Arabia and benefits from a Saudi loan of $3 billion for oil and gas supplies. More than two million workers from Pakistan and Bangladesh live in Saudi Arabia. Before his visit to Islamabad, Saudi MBS released 200 Pakistani prisoners.

Vatanka gave an overview of Iran’s perspective on the MBS visit to Pakistan. Pakistan’s neutral position since the eighties between Saudi Arabia and Iran is calculated to avoid fighting with the Arabs against Iran. Islamabad does not criticize what Iran is doing in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen or object to its recruitment of fighters from its population, which is 20% Shia. From the Iranian perspective, MBS’s visit entailed animosity towards Iran. But it produced more noise than substantial results. Unlike Saudi Arabia, Iran can not do much to help Pakistan in terms of arms, money, or foreign policy. Tehran and Islamabad have talked for twenty-five years about their pipeline connection, which is yet to be completed.

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The troubles we see

This year’s Council on Foreign Relations Preventive Priorities Survey was published this morning. It annually surveys the globe for a total of 30 Tier 1, 2 and 3 priorities for the United States. Tier 1s have a high or moderate impact on US interests or a high or moderate likelihood (above 50-50). Tier 2s can have low likelihood but high impact on US interests, moderate (50-50) likelihood and moderate impact on US interests, or high likelihood and low impact on US interests. Tier 3s are all the rest. Data is crowdsourced from a gaggle of experts, including me.

We aren’t going to be telling you anything you don’t know this year, but the exercise is still instructive. The two new Tier 1 contingencies are Russian intervention in Ukraine and heightened tensions in Israel/Palestine. A new Tier 2 priority is Kurdish violence within Turkey. I don’t believe I voted for that one. Ebola made it only to Tier 3, as did political unrest in China and possible succession problems in Thailand. I had Ebola higher than that.

Not surprisingly, the top slot (high likelihood and high impact) goes to ISIS. Military confrontation in the South China Sea moved up to Tier 1. Internal instability in Pakistan moved down, as did political instability in Jordan. Six issues fell off the list: conflict in Somalia, a China/India clash, Mali, Democratic Republic of the Congo Bangladesh and conflict between Sudan and South Sudan.

Remaining in Tier 1 are a mass casualty attack on the US homeland (hard to remove that one), a serious cyberattack (that’s likely to be perennial too), a North Korea crisis, and an Israeli attack on Iran. Syria and Afghanistan remain in Tier 2 (I think I had Syria higher than that).

The Greater Middle East looms large in this list. Tier 2 is all Greater Middle East, including Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Turkey and Yemen (in addition to Tier 1 priorities Israel/Iran, Syria, Afghanistan and Palestine). That makes 11 out of 30, all in the top two tiers. Saudi monarchy succession is not even mentioned. Nor is Bahrain.

Sub-Saharan Africa makes it only into Tier 3. Latin America and much of Southeast Asia escape mention.

There is a question in my mind whether the exclusively country-by-country approach of this survey makes sense. It is true of course that problems in the Middle East vary from country to country, but there are also some common threads: Islamic extremism, weak and fragile states, exclusionary governance, demographic challenges and economic failure. From a policy response perspective, it may make more sense to focus on those than to try to define “contingencies” country by country. If you really wanted to prevent some of these things from happening, you would surely have to broaden the focus beyond national borders. Russian expansionism into Russian-speaking territories on its periphery might be another more thematic way of defining contingencies.

One of the key factors in foreign policy is entirely missing from this list: domestic American politics and the difficulties it creates for a concerted posture in international affairs. Just to offer a couple of examples: failure to continue to pay Afghanistan’s security sector bills, Congressional passage of new Iran sanctions before the P5+1 negotiations are completed, or a decision by President Obama to abandon entirely support for the Syrian opposition. The survey ignores American “agency” in determining whether contingencies happen, or not. That isn’t the world I live in.

For my Balkans readers: no, you are not on the list, and you haven’t been for a long time so far as I can tell. In fact, it is hard to picture how any contingency today in the Balkans could make it even to Tier 3. That’s the good news. But it also means you should not be looking to Washington for solutions to your problems. Brussels and your own capitals are the places to start.

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