Tag: Syria
Peace Picks, May 20-24th
A busy week with the Hill active and the Sahel attracting more attention than usual:
1. Jihad and Politics in North Africa, Monday, May 20 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm , New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Eamonn Gearon, Peter Bergen
French intervention in Mali earlier this year quickly dislodged insurgents from their strongholds in the northern part of the country, but even before victory had been secured, Paris began making moves to bring its troops home. Most of the 4,000 French troops sent to Mali remain there today, but they plan to hand over security operations to a UN-mandated African force in the coming weeks. With continued unrest and regular attacks by insurgents, any withdrawal at this stage leaves northern Mali vulnerable to becoming a safe haven again for al-Qaeda and others.
The war in Mali is not merely fallout from the Arab Spring. Rather, it is a complex but not insoluble set of issues, with local roots and regional implications. A successful outcome in Mali is possible, but the solution requires Bamako to be inclusive and the West to be realistic by acknowledging that what is happening in Mali is about more than terrorism. The New America Foundation is pleased to welcome Middle East expert Eamonn Gearon for a discussion about the drivers of conflict in Mali and what the international community should do to manage them.
Register for the event here:
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/jihad_and_politics_north_africa
2. The Call for Economic Liberty in the Arab World, Tuesday, May 21 / 9:30am , U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
2172 House Rayburn Office Building
SPEAKERS: Hernando de Soto, Madeleine K. Albright
Witnesses:
Mr. Hernando de Soto, President
Institute for Liberty and Democracy
The Honorable Madeleine K. Albright, Chairman
Albright Stonebridge Group
For more information, click here:
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/hearing-call-economic-liberty-arab-world
3. Bahrain: A Conversation About Its Challenges and Opportunities, Tuesday, May 21 / 10:00am – 12:00pm, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
B-308
SPEAKERs: Ambassador Ronald E. Neumann, Professor David Des Roches, Ms. Sarah Leah Whitson, Professor Paul Sullivan, Dr. John Duke Anthony
On May 21, 2013, the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations and the U.S.-GCC Corporate Cooperation Committee are hosting a public affairs briefing on “Bahrain: A Conversation About Its Challenges and Opportunities” featuring Ambassador Ronald E. Neumann, President, American Academy of Diplomacy and former U.S. Ambassador to Bahrain, Afghanistan, and Algeria; Professor David Des Roches, Senior Military Fellow, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University; Ms. Sarah Leah Whitson, Executive Director, Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; and Professor Paul Sullivan, Professor of Economics, National Defense University and Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University. Dr. John Duke Anthony, Founding President & CEO, National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, will serve as moderator.
Register for the event here:
4. Conceptualizing A New US Pakistan Relationship by Ambassador Touqir Hussain, Tuesday, May 21 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, Rumi Forum
Venue: Rumi Forum, 1150 17th St. N.W., Suite 408, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Touqir Hussain
Ambassador Touqir Hussain is a former senior diplomat from Pakistan, having served as Ambassador to Brazil, Spain and Japan (1998 – 2003). Ambassador Hussain held senior positions in the Pakistani Foreign Office, including that of Additional Foreign Secretary heading the bureaus of the Middle East and of the Americas and Europe.
From 1996 to 1998, Ambassador Hussain was the Diplomatic Adviser to the Prime Minister where he had an opportunity to work with a range of foreign policy issues at the highest policy levels.
Ambassador Touqir Hussain moved to the United States in 2003. Since then he has been pursuing an academic career. He was a Senior Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace( 2004-2005) and Research Fellow at the Center for the Study of Globalization George Washington University ( 2006-2010). Currently he is the Senior Pakistan Visiting Fellow at SAIS Johns Hopkins University and Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University and the Syracuse University ( Washington DC campus).Earlier he had also taught at the University of Virginia Charlottesville.
Ambassador Hussain’s overall specialization is South Asian security issues, the Kashmir dispute, U.S Pakistan relations, civil military relations, democracy in the Islamic world, political Islam, terrorism, and US relations with the Islamic world. Ambassador Hussain has written nearly thirty op-ed pieces for US and Pakistani newspapers on some of these issues.
Ambassador Hussain has been a guest speaker at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville; American University, Washington DC; The George Washington University, Washington DC; Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond; the Defense Institute of Security Assistance Management, Dayton, Ohio; The National Defense University, Washington DC; The College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA; and the World Affairs Council, Peoria, IL.
More information here:
http://www.rumiforum.org/upcoming-events/qconceptualizing-a-new-us-pakistan-relationshipq-ambassador-touqir-hussain.html
5. The Growing Crisis in Africa’s Sahel Region, Tuesday, May 21 / 2:00pm, U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
2172 House Rayburn Office Building
SPEAKERS: Donald Y. Yamamoto, Nancy E. Lindborg, Rudolph Atallah, Mima S. Nedelcovych
Witnesses:
Panel I
The Honorable Donald Y. Yamamoto, Acting Assistant Secretary of State
Bureau of African Affairs
U.S. Department of State
The Honorable Nancy E. Lindborg
Assistant Administrator
Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance
U.S. Agency for International Development
Panel II
Mr. Rudolph Atallah, Senior Fellow
Michael S. Ansari Africa Center
Atlantic Council
Mima S. Nedelcovych, Ph.D., Partner
Schaffer Global Group
More information here:
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-hearing-growing-crisis-africas-sahel-region
6. Prospect for Afghanistan’s 2014 Elections, Tuesday, May 21 / 2:45pm, U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Venue: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Constitution Avenue and 1st Street, NE, Washington, DC
Room 419
SPEAKERS: Mr. David Pearce, Dr. Andrew Wilder, Ms. Sarah Chayes
More information here:
http://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/prospect-for-afghanistans-2014-elections
7. How Arab Public Opinion Is Reshaping the Middle East, Tuesday, May 21 / 3:00pm – 4:30pm, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Falk Auditorium
SPEAKERS: Martin S. Indyk, Shibley Telhami, Kim Ghattas
The Arab awakening that began in 2011 is transforming the Middle East in ways that continue to surprise seasoned observers. As new political leaders and movements struggle for power and work to shape the region’s future, one thing is clear: public opinion is more consequential now than it has arguably ever been. How Arabs view themselves and the world around them will have enormous consequences for the region and the larger international community in the years ahead. How are changes in Arab public opinion shaping the changes occurring across the region? Have the U.S. and its allies done enough to understand and support the voices of Arabs seeking greater representation and opportunity?
On May 21, the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World, as part of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, will host the launch of The World Through Arab Eyes: Arab Public Opinion and the Reshaping of the Middle East (Basic Books, 2013), the latest book by Nonresident Senior Fellow Shibley Telhami. Kim Ghattas, BBC’s State Department correspondent, will engage Dr. Telhami in a discussion of the book and the issues it raises. Martin Indyk, vice president and director of Foreign Policy at Brookings, will provide introductory remarks.
Register for the event here:
http://www.brookings.edu/events/2013/05/21-arab-public-opinion?rssid=UpcomingEvents&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopfeeds%2FUpcomingEvents+%28Brookings+Upcoming+Events%29
7. Seeking Wisdom Beyond Our Comfort Zone: How Assumptions About “The Other” Limit Growth, Tuesday, May 21 / 6:30pm – 8:30pm, Rumi Forum
Venue: Rumi Forum, 1150 17th St. N.W., Suite 408, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Eileen Gale Kugler
Each day we make judgments in our business and personal lives about the value of others. We don’t make these decisions in a pristine vacuum, but rather based on our own experiences and influences. Our complex individual culture—an interconnected web of factors ranging from our religion, race and ethnicity to where we grew up, our family structure and our gender role—is the prism through which we view the capabilities of others. These assumptions, whether conscious or unconscious, limit our own growth, as well the growth of other people. To break through these biases, we each need to be conscious of them and reflect on the origins of our attitudes about “the other.” When we move beyond our own prism and seek wisdom from everyone we come in contact with, no matter their background or status, we grow —and so do our organizations and society at large.
Eileen Gale Kugler is a global speaker and consultant on the unique benefits that diversity brings to schools, communities and worksites —and strategies to strengthen them. She is author of the award-winning Debunking the Middle Class Myth: Why Diverse Schools are Good for All Kids and executive editor of the new Innovative Voices in Education: Engaging Diverse Communities. Eileen’s articles and commentaries appear in wide-ranging publications, including USA Today and the Washington Post, Educational Leadership, and Education Week. Eileen’s work is informed by her continuing on-the-ground involvement, including an active volunteer life. Her family’s volunteer commitment at a South African school, including creating a 23,000-book library, was featured in The Washington Post and Voice of America TV.
More information here:
http://www.rumiforum.org/upcoming-events/seeking-wisdom-beyond-our-comfort-zone-how-assumptions-about-the-other-limit-growth-eileen-gale-kugler.html
8. Perilous Desert: Security Challenges in the Sahara and Sahel, Wednesday, May 22 / 9:00am – 5:00pm, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Anouar Boukhars, Frederic Wehrey, Marwan Muasher
While the world’s attention was fixed on the momentous events in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya after the outbreak of the Arab Awakening, the desert states to the south were undergoing their own transformations with major global implications. Long overlooked by policymakers and scholars, the broader Sahara region has always possessed an underappreciated geopolitical significance. And changes should not be ignored. To explore regional sources of instability and what can be done to minimize the threat of simmering conflicts, Carnegie will gather top experts from the United States, Europe, and the region at an all-day conference to mark the launch of the new book Perilous Desert: Insecurity in the Sahara. Copies will be available for purchase.
Register for the event here:
http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/05/22/book-launch-perilous-desert-insecurity-in-sahara/g005
9. Syria‘s Humanitarian Crisis: A Briefing by Marianne Gasser, Wednesday, May 22 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
SPEAKERS: Marianne Gasser
Marianne Gasser, outgoing Head of the Delegation for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Syria, will discuss Syria’s humanitarian crisis.
More than two years after the onset of the conflict in Syria, the humanitarian toll continues to grow. With estimates of 4 million Syrians displaced internally, and another 1.2 million seeking refuge in neighboring countries, the impact on civilians continues.
Register for the event here:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/syria%E2%80%99s-humanitarian-crisis-briefing-marianne-gasser
10. Two States, One Country, Israel-Palestine: A Path Towards a Shared Future, Wednesday, May 22 / 2:00pm – 4:30pm, Universal Peace Federation
Venue: 3600 New York Ave., NE, Washington, DC 20002
The Green Room
SPEAKERS: Kamal Awash, Dr. Andrew Wilson
Our co-moderators will be Kamal Nawash, Esq., President, Free Muslims Coalition, and Dr. Andrew Wilson, Academic Dean and Professor of Biblical Studies at the Unification Theological Seminary.
More than 20 years since the historic handshake between Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin, that sealed the Oslo accords and outlined the path to a two state solution, Israelis and Palestinians are no closer to reaching a permanent solution to their conflict and many experts now believe that the two state solution is no longer practical nor feasible.
Over the last five years, an increasing number of prominent Israelis and Palestinians have openly called for or began considering the practicality of a shared future where the two state solution is seen as an obstacle to peace rather than a path to peace. The new proposals generally include concepts such as a federation, confederation or a one state solution between Israel and Palestine.
More recently, the idea of a shared future has expanded to include grassroot, leaderless efforts among Palestinians and Israelis who pursue their own initiatives to explore the concept of a shared future. One notable effort occurred in 2012 when a group of Palestinians and Israelis organized a historic conference in the settlement of Ariel to discuss the possibility of living together in a united country.
Moreover, a plethora of Facebook groups, which focus on creating a united country of Israel/Palestine, have spontaneously popped up. The roundtable will explore alternatives to the two state solution with emphasis on a shared future for Israelis and Palestinians.
RSVP for the event at:
wselig@upf.org
11. The Middle East and North Africa FY 2014 Budget: Priorities and Challenges, Wednesday, May 22 / 2:00pm, U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, 45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
2172 House Rayburn Office Building
SPEAKERS: Beth Jones, Alina L. Romanowski
Witnesses:
The Honorable Beth Jones, Acting Assistant Secretary of State
Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
U.S. Department of State
Ms. Alina L. Romanowski, Acting Assistant Administrator
Bureau for the Middle East
U.S. Agency for International Development
More information on the event here:
http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-hearing-middle-east-and-north-africa-fy-2014-budget-priorities-and-challenges
12. ‘Afghanistan 2014: Transition to What?’, Wednesday, May 22 / 5:00pm – 7:00pm , Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Rome Building
1619 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C.
SPEAKERS: Ali A. Jalali
Ali A. Jalali, distinguished professor of the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University and former interior minister of Afghanistan, will discuss this topic. Note: A reception will precede the forum at 5 p.m.
To RSVP, contact
saiscaciforums@jhu.edu.
For more information, please visit:
http://sais-jhu.edu/events/2013-05-22-170000-2013-05-22-190000/afghanistan-2014-transition-what
13. Muslims and International Religious Freedom: An Overview, Wednesday, May 22 / 7:00pm , Al-Hewar Center
Venue: Vienna Community Center, 120 Cherry Street, S.E., Vienna, VA
SPEAKERS: Azizah al-Hibri
A conversation with Dr. Azizah al-Hibri, Esq., Founder and Chair of KARAMAH
For more information, visit:
http://www.alhewar.com/newevents.html
14. A Conversation with His Excellency Mr. Ahmet Uzumcu, Thursday, May 23 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm , Center for Strategic and International Studies
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
SPEAKERS: Ahmet Uzumcu
The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) entered into force in 1997 and today has 188 parties. This treaty, which bans the development, production, acquisition, stockpiling, transfer or use of chemical weapons, has a robust verification regime including challenge inspections. Work to eliminate existing stockpiles of chemical agents continues among the treaty parties. But none of that applies to non-parties to the treaty. Allegations of the possible use of chemical weapons in Syria, which is not a party to the CWC, points to the need to do more.
Please join CSIS for a discussion with H.E. Mr. Ahmet Uzumcu, Director General of the OPCW, about the challenges to the chemical weapons nonproliferation regime today, including appropriate responses to the allegations regarding the use of chemical weapons in Syria.
Register for the event here:
http://csis.org/event/conversation-his-excellency-mr-ahmet-uzumcu
14. What’s Next for Pakistan’s New Government?, Thursday, May 23 / 12:15pm – 1:45pm, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Shamila Chaudhary, Andrew Wilder, Malik Siraj Akbar, Dr. Simbal Khan, Peter Bergen
On May 11, Pakistanis turned out to the polls in record numbers to vote in a momentous election: the country’s first transition from one democratically elected government to another. The party of former two-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif quickly surged ahead on Election Day, easily winning a simple majority in parliament. But Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz face a range of thorny problems, from a vicious insurgency to a crippling energy shortage.
Register for the event here:
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/pakistan_new_government
15. Iran: The Battle for the Presidency, Thursday, May 23 / 12:30pm – 1:30pm , Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
SPEAKERS: Barbara Slavin, Ali Vaez, Meir Javedanfar
Iran’s Council of Guardians will announce the list of candidates for the next president of Iran on May 22-23. Our panel of experts will discuss the candidates, their platforms, and their likely impact on future domestic and foreign policy.
Register for the event here:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/iran-the-battle-for-the-presidency
16. Egypt: Political Challenges for the Youth Movement, Friday, May 24 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm , Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
SPEAKERS: Jawad Nabulsi, Marina Ottaway
Egypt’s young generation played an important role in the country’s revolution, and they continue to be a political force. Nabulsi, an activist and organizer in the revolution who was shot multiple times, will discuss the future of the youth movement in Egypt.
Register for the event here:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/egypt-political-challenges-for-the-youth-movement
17. Summer Films: Fire on the Marmara & Sacred Stones, Friday, May 24 / 6:30pm – 8:30pm , Jerusalem Fund & Palestine Center
Venue: The Jerusalem Fund, 2425 Virginia Ave, NW Washington, DC 20037
Fire on the Marmara: On May 31, 2010 while still in international waters, Israeli commandos killed nine people who were traveling on a humanitarian mission on the Mavi Mamara. Traveling together with them, 700 activists from Caracas to Valencia, Barcelona, Brussels, London, Stockholm, and Istanbul attempted to bring supplies and break the blockade that the Palestinian population of Gaza has been suffering for years. A documentation of the events taking place on board the ship before, during and after the attack, filmmaker and passenger David Segara interviews the journalists and activists who survived, exploring their motivations for participating in the Freedom Flotilla.
Sacred Stones: Natural stone is the most requested Palestinian raw material, considered white oil. The Palestinian stone industry has to serve the construction needs of Israel, including that of illegal settlements on the Palestinian territory. The natural stone’s extraction system causes environmental, social, and health problems within villages, refugee camps and cities. The Israeli occupation responds with persecution of Palestinian complaints, whose voices are unanswered by international organizations and ignored by the Palestinian authorities.
Register for the event here:
http://www.thejerusalemfund.org/ht/d/EventDetails/i/38238
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Odd duck
I livetweeted Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s appearance in Washington at SETA (a Turkish thinktank for political, economic social research) yesterday, but the performance merited more. Maybe my numerous Turkish readers will find it interesting, even if the Americans don’t. I rarely attend such high-level public events, as little new gets said.
But Erdogan did not disappoint. Speaking in Turkish (I was listening to the simultaneous translation), his main theme was this:
no justice means no humanity, no dignity, and no peace.
He went on to talk about the “bottom billion” living on less than $1 per day, most of whom are innocent children, as well as the suffering in Somalia and Darfur. Personally moved by starvation and circumcision done with a simple knife on several children, he underlined the injustice of racism and discrimination, referring in particular to violence against Muslims in Myanmar.
Lack of justice in one place is a threat to justice elsewhere. Palestine is not a territorial issue but a justice issue. Israeli settlements are making a two-state solution impossible. Israel should release Palestinian prisoners and end the blockade. Hamas will have to be at the negotiating table. It was elected and then denied the right to govern. Israel has apologized for its raid on the Turkish aid flotilla. Compensation is under discussion. Then Turkey will press for an end to the occupation.
The twentieth century was one of war and injustice. The twenty-first century should be one of peace and justice. Turkish policy is based on justice and humanity. This is why Turkey supported the people in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Syria. But the UN Security Council is doing nothing. The system is blocked, and wrong. Humanity cannot be in the hands of one or two countries; the system has to be changed. Events like those of the 1990s in Bosnia and Rwanda are happening again, but the Security Council is doing nothing.
A world in which babies are slaughtered is not a religious world. This is not honorable and it makes me mad. When you witness things of this sort, you have a responsibility. Why is the media not covering the slaughter in Banias (Syria)? The babies dying are not only their parents, but also ours. You have to act. You have to stop these things. Society shares responsibility for this evil. There is a need for global conscience and justice. We have to see that the elements bringing us together are stronger than those that drive us apart. We have to help the poor and the weak. We cannot step on each other and remain connected to our ideals and faith.
Somewhere around this point, Erdogan took a diversion that I wasn’t able to capture tweeting but I’ll try to reproduce here. God’s justice, he said, is ever present but manifests itself at different times and places. He reminded the audience of the Koranic phrase
Bismillah al rahman al rahim
This is generally translated
In the name of God, most Gracious, most Compassionate
But, Erdogan said, its real meaning is that God has two aspects. The first he shows to everyone on earth during their lifetimes. This is the same for everyone (most Gracious). The second is reserved for the faithful in the afterlife (most Compassionate). I’m no theologian, but this struck me as a millenarian concept rather similar to that of the raptured Christians or the Puritans’ “elect.” No ecumenism in this second aspect. Only true believers enter heaven.
I imagine some aide in the front row was figuratively urging him to move on at this point, which is what he did. Turkey will fulfill its obligations, Erdogan said. We want to see more countries concerned about Syria, where the regime does not control much of the territory but uses its weapons to fire on the population. Asad has fired hundreds of missiles and used sarin gas.
President Obama is trying to do the right thing, but what is needed is UN Security Council action, which would accelerate the process. Russia needs to step forward. Turkey will continue to cooperate with Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
In the Q and A, Erdogan said he would go soon to Gaza and the West Bank (he did not mention Israel). He is against war, but sometimes justice requires it. The clergy should help us avoid getting to that point by reaching across borders. An EU/US trade agreement is a fine idea, but it will need to take into account Turkey’s interests, as Turkey has a customs union with the EU. Turkey will continue to press China on respecting the rights of the Uighurs.
The session ended without questions about Kurds inside Turkey, imprisonment of journalists or other human rights violations. As questions were submitted in writing, the moderator presumably tossed those.
This is an odd duck: a religious and social conservative who has instituted vigorous free market economic reforms but also holds liberal internationalist views on the world, while ignoring those views when it comes to internal politics and human rights.
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What me worry?
I have a skeptical reaction to the current Washington scandals. The editing of the Benghazi talking points strikes me as unworthy of a news story on an inside page. Why is the Internal Revenue Service’s close scrutiny of a flood of patriotic “tea party” registrations not viewed as a rigorous effort to carry out its mandate in the face of potentially fraudulent tax exemptions? How come politicians who called for vigorous prosecution of the AP leak of information about a foiled terrorist plot are now upset that the Justice Department is pursuing the investigation with vigor?
These are not Watergate-league affairs, yet. No one has connected the President to any of them. He referred to the Benghazi incident as a terrorist attack the next day. The inspector general at the IRS found no evidence of White House involvement, even if Washington-based political appointees did know about the matter. The AP investigation is a Justice Department responsibility, from which the Attorney General recused himself because the FBI had at one point questioned him as a possible source of the leak.
The IRS affair is potentially the most serious of these scandals. The inspector general’s report documents mismanagement in responding to a sharp increase in applications for tax exemptions from Tea Party and other right wing groups. What it does not show is whether this response was out of the ordinary. Would a sharp increase in environmental organization applications for tax exemption have triggered a similar response? No one should be unhappy to see the IRS closely scrutinizing organizations that ask for tax exemptions. I might even crack a smile to hear tea partiers suggesting that the IRS should have hired more employees if it had trouble reviewing all the applications for tax exemptions. It is is the implied political bias, still unproven, that is most disturbing.
Massaging of talking points is a bureaucratic art unworthy of serious attention. Susan Rice should have known better than to use them.
The AP leak is troubling mainly because a government investigation of this sort could have a chilling effect on confidential sources for journalists. But I confess to surprise that confidential informants are still using telephones to spill the beans, or even to make appointments to spill the beans. And it would be best if the culprit were found.
No one is (yet) blaming the Administration for the military’s various sexual abuse scandals, which seem somehow to involve disproportionately those responsible for preventing sexual abuse. Fixing the culture from which these incidents grow will not be easy.
Yesterday’s international embarrassment came in Moscow. The Russians appear to have caught a CIA agent red-handed in an attempt to recruit a Russian agent of their Federal Security Service. Rarely does Moscow go so far as to release video of an agent with his bozotic tradecraft tools: wigs, eyeglasses, a map of Moscow. He lacked only false moustaches. This does not bode well for budding cooperation with the Russians on Syria, though it likely won’t derail their help with the withdrawal from Afghanistan or their participation in the nuclear talks with Iran.
The news media are delighted that so much is happening to embarrass the Obama administration at a time when other news is lacking. The president was already on the ropes. Gun background checks have failed in Congress, immigration reform at best is moving slowly, and the budget won’t be ripe for serious negotiation until the Feds bump up against the budget ceiling again in the fall. This is weeks later than anticipated, as revenues are running ahead of projections and the deficit falling more rapidly than anticipated. I’ll let you know when someone decides to celebrate that.
The international significance of all this is that it puts the administration off balance in dealing with foreign policy issues. A president who had convinced Congress to pass gun background checks, could be confident Congress would pass immigration reform and could hope for a budget deal would be in a stronger position internationally as well as domestically. It would be even better if the president were not defending himself from charges of downplaying terrorism, using the IRS to discomfit his domestic opponents and infringing on freedom of the press.
There are serious international questions out there requiring American leadership. Will it be possible to move ahead on a Middle East peace process that stalled in Obama’s first term? Will Russia and the US find a way to manage a political process to end the Syrian civil war? Can the administration bring to conclusion big Atlantic and Pacific trade agreements? Will Afghanistan survive the withdrawal of the Americans and their international coalition partners from combat roles? Can the administration somehow end nuclear weapons programs in North Korea and Iran without military action?
So yes, I do worry, even if Alfred E. Neuman would advise against it.
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No narrow way out
This rare interview with Salim Idriss, who (sort of) commands the forces in Syria that call themselves the Free Army, is telling. It demonstrates three things:
- The rebels are still in need of weapons.
- Their fragmented structure makes supplying them a dicey proposition.
- Disunity is a serious impediment to their military progress.
This is not an unfamiliar situation. It is comparable to the Bosnian army during the first year of that country’s miserable war, which started more than twenty years ago and went on for three and a half years before the Federation forces started winning and the Dayton accords ended it.
By then, the Bosnian (ABiH) was unified under General Rasim Delic and fighting in tandem with the Croat Defense Force (HVO) and the Croatian Army (HV) against the Republika Srpska army (VRS). But things hadn’t started that way. The HVO and the ABiH had even fought with each other in 1992 and 1993, just as some rebel forces inside Syria have in recent months.
Likewise in Kosovo, the Kosovo Liberation Army was not completely unified at first and fought occasionally with the Armed Forces of the Republic of Kosovo (FARK), a less well-known group that also fought against the Yugoslav security forces.
The Syrian rebel forces will need greater unity if they are to make further progress against the Syrian army, which has been gaining ground in the past few weeks. That is at least in part due to Iranian and Lebanese Hizbollah forces fighting inside Syria. The regime’s objective is to relieve Damascus and secure the route to the Alawite-populated areas of the northeast, where ethnic cleansing of Sunnis has been proceeding apace.
The rebel forces are also going to need more international help, at the very least arms supplies, but some want a much narrower focus. Aram Nerguizian wants American intervention to focus exclusively on chemical weapons and extremists among the rebels:
How U.S. military power could be used is to selectively target risks tied to proliferation of chemical weapons and other strategic capabilities in Syria. It could be used to contain and curtail the expansion of al Qaeda in the Levant and to prevent the preeminence of radical forces in the region.
The chemical weapons seem to me strategically irrelevant. If used, they have killed a tiny fraction of the more than 80,000 dead. It can still be argued that the President’s “red line” has to be enforced, lest failing to do so sends the wrong message to Iran. Certainly a credible threat of military force to block Tehran from getting nuclear weapons is vital to the diplomatic strategy the President is pursuing. But the notion that chemical weapons, like nuclear bombs, are “weapons of mass destruction” is hyperbole. Syria’s use of chemical weapons has nothing like the implications of Iran gaining nuclear ones. Finding and destroying Asad’s stocks of sarin and other poisons would be a major military enterprise, not the limited intervention some may imagine.
Extremists are likewise a difficult target to engage. Muslim extremists also emerged in Bosnia and Kosovo but were quickly undone once the fighting was over. That will be a far more difficult process in Syria, as it will not be getting the tens of thousands of NATO peacekeeping forces that made it happen quickly, and in retrospect easily, in the Balkans. But how, precisely, does one target Jabhat al Nusra in Syria? Do we really want to be hunting them down with drones while they are fighting the Asad regime? Or encouraging the Free Syria Army, which is less than fully effective against the regime forces, to engage against them while the extremists are fighting Asad? We have made it clear that Jabhat al Nusra is not acceptable to the international community, something the UN reinforced last week with financial sanctions. But do we really need to do more than that right now?
The higher priority is to focus on protecting civilians in Syria. The regime is targeting civilians in rebel-held areas daily, trying to make life there unbearable and governance impossible. The purpose is to get the civilians to expel the insurgents, in the hope doing so will provide some measure of relief from artillery and air bombardment. Protecting Syria’s civilian population from these ravages should be our priority concern.
The costs of failing to do so are high. US humanitarian relief in Syria could total $1 billion by the end of this year. Unless we focus on civilian protection we are not likely to recover some measure of confidence in Syria’s Sunni Muslim population and prevent its youth from further radicalization. A post-Asad Syria dominated by extremists will be a problem for the Middle East and the US for decades into the future. We should want a Syria that respects the rights of its citizens (regardless of sect or ethnicity) as well as its borders with Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. That will take time and effort. There is no shortcut. A narrow focus on chemical weapons and extremists will not serve these broader strategic purposes. There is no narrow way out.
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Peace picks May 13-17
1. Exploring Tunisia’s Investment Climate, Monday, May 13 / 11:00am – 12:30pm, Aspen Institute
Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW, Suite 700, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Don De Amicis, Daniela Gressani, Ziad Oueslati, Tom Speechley
Two years after the revolution, Tunisia’’s economy is at a turning point. The new government is struggling to address high levels of continued unemployment, while trying to attract increased international investment. With unemployment at 17% nation-wide and 30% in the interior, Tunisia must create jobs and investment in key sectors such as hospitality, agriculture, energy and technology. Partners for a New Beginning welcomes you to join us for a discussion on the opportunities and challenges to Tunisia’’s economic future. Panelists will explore the role of the international community and local government and private sector in supporting Tunisia’’s economic transition.
Register for the event here:
http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/05/13/exploring-tunisias-investment-climate
2. Egypt’s Litigious Transition, Monday, May 13 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm , Atlantic Council
Venue: Atlantic Council of the United States, 1101 15th Street, NW, 11th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20005
SPEAKERS: Mahmoud Hamad, Yussef Auf
The judiciary has profoundly shaped Egypt’s transition by prosecuting former regime figures, restructuring government institutions, and reshaping a fluid legal framework. Judges blocked executive orders and dissolved the Islamist dominated parliament, drawing the ire of Islamist forces in power who now view the judiciary as a political enemy. Legal maneuvering, such as President Mohamed Morsi’s replacement of the prosecutor general and the Islamist led Shura Council’s debate over a judicial authority law that would severely curtail judicial influence, has heightened tensions between the judges and the government. What implications does this dynamic hold for the future of Egypt’s transition? Does the judiciary exert a moderating influence over the political process or has hyper-partisanship tainted its objectivity? Please join us for a discussion of these issues with Mahmoud Hamad, author of the new Atlantic Council issue brief, Egypt’s Litigious Transition, and Yussef Auf, a nonresident fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center.
Register for the event here:
http://www.acus.org/event/egypts-litigious-transition
3. Building on Progress in Afghanistan: 2014 and Beyond, Monday, May 13 / 2:00pm – 3:00pm , Center for Strategic and International Studies
Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006
B1 Conference Center
SPEAKERS: Ajay Chhibber
Ajay Chhibber is United Nations Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP Assistant Administrator in UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific, managing UNDP programs in 39 countries, including Afghanistan. Representing UNDP’s unique perspective on development in Afghanistan, Mr. Chhibber will discuss the challenges and opportunities for Afghanistan’s development, particularly with the 2014 transition approaching.
Despite obvious shortcomings and many setbacks, Afghanistan has seen significant progress that is often overlooked in discourse on the future of the country. For instance, in just a decade, the number of mobile phones in Afghanistan has increased from zero to over 18 million. Meanwhile, some 3 million girls are attending schools in Afghanistan today-whereas under Taliban rule girls’ education was outlawed.
Please RSVP to PPD@csis.org.
4. Diaspora Engagement: Bridge-Building in Southeast Europe Roundtable, Monday, May 13 / 2:30pm – 6:00pm, United Macedonian Diaspora
Venue: United Macedonian Diaspora, 1510 H Street, NW, Suite 900, Washington, D.C.
SPEAKERS: Ambassador Josko Paro, Ambassador Srdjan Darmanovic, Tyson Barker, Robert Benjamin, Steven Bucci, Robert Hand, Ivana Howard
The Third Annual Southeast Europe Coalition Roundtable is being held in conjunction with the Third Annual U.S. Department of State’s Global Diaspora Forum (GDF). It is estimated that over five million Americans claim ancestry from Southeast Europe, or what is commonly known as the Balkans. Keeping in mind with this years GDF theme “Where Ideas Meet Action,” the Southeast Europe Coalition hopes to bring together diplomats, think tank experts, and Diaspora leaders to engage in an open discussion on current trends in the region, as well as how the Diaspora can build bridges among themselves and with U.S. and Southeast Europe stakeholders.
RSVP to:
amilovanovic@umdiaspora.org
5. Conflict Assessment: Comparing Research Methods and Conceptual Frameworks’, Tuesday, May 14 / 9:30am – 11:30am , Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036
Kenney Auditorium
SPEAKERS: Dayna Brown, Neil Levine, Bruce Hemmer, Paul Turner, Lisa Schirch
Dayna Brown, director of the Listening Project at CDA Collaborative Learning; Neil Levine, director of the Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation in USAIDs Office of Democracy and Governance; Bruce Hemmer, a research analyst at the Office of Learning and Training of the U.S. Department of States Bureau for Conflict and Stabilization Operations (CSO); Paul Turner, a CSO policy analyst; and Lisa Schirch founding director of the Alliance for Peacebuildings 3P Human Security program, will discuss this topic. Note: SAIS will host a live Webcast for this event.
Register for the event here:
http://sais-jhu.edu/events/2013-05-14-093000-2013-05-14-113000/conflict-assessment-comparing-research-methods-and
6. American Foreign Policy in Retreat? A Discussion with Vali Nasr, Tuesday, May 14 / 9:30am – 11:00am, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Martin S. Indyk, Vali Nasr, Robert Kagan
For the past decade, a debate has raged about the future of American power and foreign policy engagement. In his new book, The Dispensable Nation: American Foreign Policy in Retreat (Knopf Doubleday Publishing, 2013), Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Vali Nasr questions America’s choice to lessen its foreign policy engagement around the world. Nasr argues that after taking office in 2009, the Obama administration let fears of terrorism and political backlash confine its policies to that of the previous administration, instead of seizing the opportunity to fundamentally reshape American foreign policy over the past four years. Meanwhile, China and Russia – rivals to American influence globally – were quietly expanding their influence in places where the U.S. has long held sway. Nasr argues that the Obama administration’s foreign policy decision making could have potentially dangerous outcomes, and, what’s more, sells short America’s power and role in the world.
On May 14, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host Vali Nasr for a discussion on the state of U.S. power globally and whether American foreign policy under the Obama administration is in retreat. Brookings Senior Fellow Robert Kagan will join the discussion, which will be moderated by Vice President Martin Indyk, director of Foreign Policy.
Register for the event here:
http://www.brookings.edu/events/2013/05/14-dispensable-nation-american-foreign-policy?rssid=UpcomingEvents&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopfeeds%2FUpcomingEvents+%28Brookings+Upcoming+Events%29
7. Drone Wars: Counterterrorism and Human Rights, Tuesday, May 14 / 12:15pm – 1:45pm , New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
SPEAKERS: Ben Emmerson, Peter Bergen
On March 15, Ben Emmerson, the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and Counterterrorism, released a statement that categorically declared the CIA drone program a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty. That statement followed three days of secret meetings with Pakistani officials, who told Emmerson that they had confirmed 400 civilian deaths in drone strikes since the program began in 2004.
In Pakistan, popular support for CIA drone strikes is virtually non-existent. Although public opinion in favor of drone strikes remains quite high in the United States, the targeted killing campaign has come under increasing fire of late from human rights organizations, Congress, and even former U.S. government officials. The New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program is pleased to invite you to a conversation with Emmerson about his work investigating human rights violations in the war on terror, particularly in relation to the CIA drone program.
Register for the event here:
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/drone_wars_human_rights
8. Pakistan’s 2013 Elections: Assessing the Results and Impacts, Tuesday, May 14 / 2:00pm – 3:30pm, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
SPEAKERS: Safiya Ghori-Ahmad, Arif Rafiq, Moeed Yusuf, Andrew Wilder
Pakistan’s general election scheduled for May 11th, 2013, will mark a further milestone in the country’s democratic development. While previous elected governments in Pakistan have completed their full terms in office, and political power has been peacefully transferred, expectations have been high that the 2013 elections would be the most free and fair ever in Pakistan’s history. This is in part due to the greater independence of the Election Commission of Pakistan, as well as the relatively ‘hands off’ role being played by the Pakistan military and intelligence agencies relative to past elections. However, the dramatic increase this past month in attacks by Islamist militant groups on candidates, political party workers and election offices, primarily targeting political parties viewed as ‘secular’ in the Pakistan contest – in particular the Awami National Party (ANP), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) – are now raising serious questions about how free and fair the elections will actually be.
Please join the U.S. Institute of Peace on May 14, 2013 from 2:00pm until 3:30pm, for a panel discussion on the results of Pakistan’s May 11th elections, and the implications of these results for both for Pakistan, as well as U.S.-Pakistan relations. This event will be webcasted live beginning at 2:00pm on May 14.
Register for the event here:
http://www.usip.org/events/pakistans-elections-hopeful-future-or-unstable-one
9. U.S.-Pakistan Security Relations: From 9/11 to 2011, with an Eye on 2014, Tuesday, May 14 / 4:00pm – 5:15pm , Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
SPEAKERS: Simbal Khan
Soon after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the United States and Pakistan entered into a wide-ranging security partnership. The deal ushered in an era of volatile relations between Washington and Islamabad. During her time as the Wilson Centers 2012-13 Pakistan Scholar, Simbal Khan has been researching the U.S.-Pakistan security relationship, and at this event she will highlight her findings. She will also examine what the future may hold for U.S.-Pakistan security ties with the approach of the 2014 international troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Register for the event here:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/us-pakistan-security-relations-911-to-2011-eye-2014
10. U.S. Policy Toward Iran, Wednesday, May 15 / 9:30am , U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations
Venue: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Constitution Avenue and 1st Street, NE, Washington, DC
Room 419
SPEAKERS: The Honorable Wendy Sherman, The Honorable David S. Cohen
Register for the event here:
http://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/us-policy-toward-iran-05-15-2013
11. Getting to a Two State Solution: A Regional Perspective, Wednesday, May 15 / 10:00am – 11:30am, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
SPEAKERS: Ghaith Al-Omari, Marwan Muasher, Gilead Sher, Aaron David Miller
Twenty years after the signing of the Oslo Accords, Secretary of State John Kerry,the latest in a series of U.S. envoys,is embarked on a serious effort to revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. How will recent elections in Israel and the resignation of Prime Minister Fayyad influence his prospects? What about the impact of the Iranian nuclear issue and the civil war in Syria? Join us for a discussion with four regional experts with long experience in government, diplomacy, and national security affairs.
Register for the event here:
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/getting-to-two-state-solution-regional-perspective
12. A Postmortem on Pakistan’s 2013 Elections, Wednesday, May 15 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm , Middle East Institute
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Choate Room
SPEAKERS: Arif Rafiq, Shamila Chaudhary, Simbal Khan, Daniel Markey, Marvin G. Weinbaum
In the wake of Pakistan’s recently concluded elections, this panel will offer insight and analysis into what the results are likely to mean for the future of the country and region. The speakers will reflect on the possible composition of a new government and the implications of the election for the future of Pakistan’s democratic system. In addition to the election’s domestic ramifications, the panelists will also address the possible effects of the elections for the United States and American foreign policy.
Register for the event here:
http://www.mei.edu/events/postmortem-pakistans-2013-elections
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Syria’s humanitarian catastrophe
This past Tuesday I moderated the Q and A for a Middle East Institute presentation by Baroness Valerie Amos, the UN’s Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs, on “The International Response to Syria’s Humanitarian Catastrophe.” Here is the video, which is also up on the MEI website:
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