Tag: Tunisia

Tunisia merits pressure

Distinguished colleagues have addressed a letter to President Biden about Tunisia:

Dear Mr. President:

We write to you with growing alarm over Tunisia’s dramatic turn towards repression and authoritarian rule. During the recent Summit for Democracy, you eloquently spoke about the urgency of our current moment: “We’re at an inflection point in history, where the decisions we make today are going to affect the course of our world for the next several decades.”

Tunisia is part of this global story and struggle. At the start of your term, Tunisia was the last remaining democratic success story of the Arab uprisings. Today, its democracy is dying. What happens in Tunisia in the next critical weeks will reverberate in the region, signaling to competitors like China and Russia that the future of the Middle East aligns ever more closely with their own authoritarian vision.

The situation is dire. Since his coup in July 2021, President Kais Saied has dismantled every democratic institution in the country, pushing through a hyper-presidential system with no checks on his power. He has intensified his crackdown against dissidents, casually labeling them “cancers” and “traitors” and hauling them before military courts. He has jailed his opponents from across the political spectrum, including Ennahda leader Rached Ghannouchi, Democratic Current leader Ghazi Chaouachi, and National Salvation Front leaders Chaima Issa and Jawher ben Mbarek, among others. And he has incited violence against migrants and Black Tunisians, embracing racist conspiracies.  We urge you to take practical steps to reverse these dangerous trends.

The United States should not reward such behavior with aid, loans, praise, and photo-ops. Lending our taxpayer dollars and legitimacy to Saied will only encourage other populist leaders to believe that they too can get away with dismantling democratic institutions. If the U.S. is truly serious about shoring up democracies worldwide, it must send a signal that there are real costs to democratic backsliding.

The Biden administration should immediately suspend all U.S. assistance to the Tunisian government, as it is legally bound to do after both military coups or civilian coups in which the military plays a decisive role. This has happened in Tunisia when the army shuttered the democratically-elected parliament. The U.S. should impose Magnitsky sanctions on Saied and his enablers, including the ministers of interior, defense, and justice, and not provide any funds, training, or equipment to these ministries while they persecute journalists, activists, and dissidents. The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) was correct to halt work on Tunisia’s $500 million Compact agreement, but formal suspension of the partnership by MCC’s board—chaired by Secretary of State Antony Blinken—would send an even stronger signal.

The pending $1.9 billion IMF loan—which would provide an economic lifeline to Saied’s regime—also represents an important lever. The United States should ask the IMF Executive Board to refuse a final agreement until Tunisia meets specific political conditions, including releasing political prisoners and establishing a genuinely inclusive national dialogue and political roadmap. After all, Saied’s government will be hard-pressed to follow through on its proposed economic reforms without the support of the major political parties, labor unions, and civil society organizations.

We believe such sustained pressure represents the best possible way to halt Tunisia’s authoritarian turn. The swift and universal condemnation of Saied’s racist rhetoric against migrants in February did lead his government to take some measures for their protection. Even if Saied is too dogmatic to change course, however, increased international pressure might lead those around him to stop facilitating his crackdown, limiting the damage he can do to the system. It can also signal to the opposition—as well as everyday Tunisians who are too afraid to speak out—that the U.S. is watching, and not bankrolling their repression.

Our goal should be to incentivize Tunisians across the political spectrum and across state institutions to reconsider the dangers of dictatorship, which, once entrenched, will be difficult to undo. To be sure, if Tunisia ended up defaulting on its debts, ordinary Tunisians would undoubtedly be affected. But they are already suffering under a seemingly never-ending economic crisis, which has only worsened since Saied’s presidential coup in July 2021. An economic strategy that is personalized and subject to the whims of an unpredictable leader is a recipe for continued chaos.

Some fear undue pressure from Washington could drive Tunisia into the arms of China. Such concerns are misplaced, given Beijing’s own constraints at present as well as the historic alignment of Tunisian state institutions with the West. Moreover, even with support from China, Tunisia will still need an IMF loan and U.S. assistance for its economy to recover and attract private investment. Washington must also recognize that the way we compete with China is not just to try and outspend them. Our approach must be to distinguish ourselves from China by bringing our values to the table.

The current crisis in Tunisia is emblematic of a broader trend the U.S. is likely to face going forward: new forms and manifestations of autocracy—often supported by our strategic rivals—challenging democratic values. Your administration has admirably and clearly declared which side it stands on in this debate. Today in Tunisia it has an opportunity to act on those convictions.

Thank you for your consideration.

Sincerely,

Amb. Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia

Amb. Jeffrey Feltman, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs

Amb. Jake Walles, former U.S. ambassador to Tunisia

Amb. Robert Ford, former U.S. ambassador to Syria, Algeria

Amb. Cynthia P. Schneider, former U.S. ambassador to The Netherlands

Elliot Abrams, former U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor

Stephanie T. Williams, former UN Senior Advisor on Libya and former US diplomat

Michele Dunne, former Director for North Africa, National Security Council (NSC)

David J. Kramer, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights & Labor

Tom Malinowski, former U.S. representative (D-NJ)

Kenneth Wollack, Chairman, National Endowment for Democracy

Matt Duss, former senior advisor to Sen. Bernie Sanders

Francis Fukuyuma, Stanford University

Larry Diamond, Stanford University

Sarah Leah Whitson, Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN)

Thomas Carothers, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Sarah Yerkes, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Shibley Telhami, University of Maryland

Courtney Freer, Emory University

Shadi Hamid, Brookings Institution  

Sharan Grewal, College of William & Mary

Note: Organizational affiliations are listed for identification purposes only.

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Syria is in good company in the Arab League

Towards the end, I trust she meant Sudan and Syria, not Saudi Arabia, were on the agenda in Cairo

The Arab League decided yesterday in Cairo to readmit Syria. The League had suspended Syria’s membership in response to its violent crackdown on demonstrators in March 2011. President Assad will presumably attend the May 19 Summit in Riyadh. This comes on top of several bilateral normalization moves, including by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Conditions aren’t likely to be fulfilled

The readmission is supposedly conditional. Though I’ve been unable to find the official statement, press reports suggest the conditions include allowing humanitarian assistance and return of refugees, clamping down on Syria’s burgeoning Captagon drug exports, and the beginnings of a political process called for in UN Security Council resolution 2254.

I’ll be surprised if much of that comes to pass. Assad could and should have done all those things long ago. Preventing humanitarian assistance, blocking return of refugees, financing his regime with drug smuggling, and blocking any transition are all part of his strategy. Readmission to the Arab League is unlikely to change his behavior, which aims at restoration of his personal authority on the entire territory of Syria.

Fighting abates but conflict continues

That is still far off. The mostly Islamist remains of Syria’s opposition control parts of northwestern Syria while Turkish troops control several border areas, where they have pushed hostile Kurdish forces farther east and south. Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces control a large part of the east, with support from the U.S. Damascus requires Iranian and Russian support to maintain sometimes minimal control over the west and south. Israel continues to bomb Syria pretty much at will, to move Iranians and their proxies away from its border and to block military supplies to Hizbollah in Lebanon.

None of these conflicts is settled, but fighting has abated from his heights. None of the forces involved has the will and the wherewithal to change the current situation. Assad no doubt hopes that normalization with the Arab world will solve his economic problems and enable him to mount the effort required to regain more territory. He may negotiate to regain territory from Turkey in exchange for promises to clamp down on the Kurds. He’ll wait out the Americans, who aren’t likely to want to remain in Syria much longer.

Autocracy restored

If Assad is successful in restoring his autocracy, he won’t be alone in the Middle East. It is a long time since the Arab Spring of 2011. Tunisia’s fledgling democracy is gone, as is Egypt’s. Bahrain’s democratic movement was snuffed out early. Yemen’s and Libya’s “springs” degenerated into civil war. Sudan is headed in the same direction. Iraq has suffered repeated upheavals, though its American-imposed anocracy has also shown some resilience. Saudi Arabia has undertaken economic and social reforms, but driven entirely by its autocratic Crown Prince. The UAE remains an absolute monarchy.

Only in Morocco and Qatar have a few modest reforms survived in more or less stable and relatively open political environments. They are both monarchies with a modicum of political participation. Though Qatar allows nothing that resembles political parties, there is limited room for freedom of expression. Morocco is a livelier political scene, but the monarchy remains dominant whenever it counts.

America has already adjusted

The Biden Administration has already adjusted. It is treating democratic values as tertiary issues with any Middle Eastern country with a claim to good relations with the US. There is no more talk of Saudi Arabia as a rogue state. Washington is silent on the restorations of autocracy in Egypt, Tunisia, and Bahrain. The Americans want to see negotiated solutions in Yemen, Libya, and Sudan. Those are more likely to restore autocracy, or something like Iraq’s power-sharing anocracy, than any sort of recognizable democratic rule.

The Americans are not joining the Syria normalization parade. They are not blocking it either. Washington no doubt figures the conditions are better than nothing. We’ll have to wait and see if that is true.

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Peace Picks | August 30-September 3, 2021

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

  1. Grim Prospects for Women and Girls in Afghanistan | Aug 31, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | The Heritage Foundation| Register Here

As the world watched Afghanistan fall to the Taliban in a matter of weeks, one point was clear: the lives of Afghan women and girls would forever be changed. Over the last twenty years, women and girls made tremendous gains by going to school, holding political office, and entering the working world. Hard-won freedoms became a part of everyday life, and Afghan women were actively enjoying them.

With the Taliban back in power, many of these gains will likely be lost. So, what can be done now to safeguard the rights of Afghan women and girls? Join the Heritage Foundation as a distinguished panel of experts tackles the scale of the problem and realistic actions that the United States and the international community can take to mitigate the damage.

Speakers:

Lisa Curtis
Senior Fellow and Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security

Heela Najibullah
Conflict and Peace Researcher
Author of “Reconciliation and Social Healing in Afghanistan”

Amb. Roya Rahmani
Former Ambassador of Afghanistan to the United States

Nicole Robinson (moderator)
Research Associate, Allison Center for Foreign Policy, The Heritage Foundation

2. #GermanyVotes – One month to go: The 2021 German elections and their implications | Sep 1, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here

This event kicks off the Europe Center’s #GermanyVotes: The Superwahljahr Series, a collection of virtual and hybrid events focusing on Germany’s upcoming federal elections. Germans head to the polls on September 26 to pick a new government at a crucial moment in German politics. The elections will mark more than the usual electoral turnover as Chancellor Angela Merkel steps down after sixteen years at the helm of Europe’s largest political and economic power.

The panel will discuss what changes a new government and leadership in Berlin will bring about for Germany, Europe, and the transatlantic alliance. Against the backdrop of a still-new US administration, global crises including the impact of the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the COVID-19 pandemic, and new challenges to the country’s economic model, what new vision will a future German government and chancellor forge for Germany and its place in the world?

Speakers:

Tyson Barker
Head, Technology and Global Affairs Program, German Council on Foreign Relations

Constanze Stelzenmüller
Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe; Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and trans-Atlantic Relations, Brookings Institution

Ines Pohl (moderator)
Washington Bureau Chief, Deutsche Welle

  1. The 9/11 Attacks from a Historical Perspective | Sep 2, 2021 | 7:45 AM EST | Royal United Services Institute | Register Here

The attacks by the Al Qaeda terrorist organisation on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon, on 11 September 2001 were cataclysmic in totally changing the global strategic environment. This event will commemorate the 20th anniversary.

Speakers:

Prof. Peter Neumann
Professor of Security Studies, Department of War Studies, King’s College London; Senior Associate Fellow, RUSI

Suzanne Raine
Trustee, RUSI

Sir John Scarlett KCMG OBE
Distinguished Fellow, RUSI; Former Chief, MI6

  1. Tunisia – What Now? | Sep 2, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | CSIS | Register Here

Tunisia, the lone democracy remaining from the Arab Spring, is at a crossroads. The Covid-19 pandemic devastated an already struggling economy, while the political system has grown increasingly ineffectual. Last month, Tunisia’s president Kais Saied suspended the parliament, sacked the prime minister, and significantly increased his own power for 30 days, and on August 23 he extended those moves indefinitely.

What does the future hold for Tunisia? What can the United States and its allies, who together have invested billions of dollars in the Tunisian democratic experiment, do to support Tunisia in its crisis?

Speakers:

Congressman David Price (D-NC)
Chairman, House Democracy Partnership; Member, House Appropriations Subcommittee on State Foreign Operations, and Related Programs

Bowman Cutter
Chairman, the Tunisian Enterprise Fund

Mohamed Malouche
Chairman, Tunisian American Young Professionals

Lobna Jeribi
Founder and President, Solidar Tunisia

Shawna Bader-Blau
Executive Director, Solidarity Center

Jon B. Alterman
Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director, Middle East Program, CSIS

Marti Flacks
Director and Senior Fellow, Human Rights Initiative, CSIS

5. Climate Change: Entry Point for Regional Peace in the Middle East | Sep 2, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Clingendael Institute | Register Here

Climate change is hitting the Middle East region hard with unbearable temperatures, water scarcity, desertification and saltwater intrusion undermining local food production. After the recent eruption of violence the need to address underlying stresses of grievances of people living in the region is mentioned as a factor that deserves extra attention. Whereas conflicts over identity and history are hard to overcome, it may still be possible to enter into renewed dialogues over how to build resilience against climate change and use renewables to enhance the level of energy security that could be used for air conditioning and water desalination. In a region prone to tensions, climate change is a common enemy that people in the region are facing.

By using practical examples, this online event will consider how a focus on climate adaptation and mitigation could be used as an entry point for bringing together people that otherwise might hardly talk to each other. What can they gain from entering into a dialogue over better management and distribution of scarce natural resources, and may this also foster a more general spirit of mutual understanding?

Speakers:

Yana Abu Taleb
Director, EcoPeace Middle East – Jordan

Rene van Nes
Head, Division of Conflict Prevention and Mediation Support, European External Action Service

Prof. Alon Tal
Member, Knesset

Dr. Shaddad Attili
Advisor ranking Minister, Negotiations Support Department, PLO

Louise van Schaik (moderator)
Head, EU & Global Affairs Unit, the Clingendael Institute

Tobias von Lossow (Q&A)
Research Fellow, the Clingendael Institute

6. Syria Today: How Assad “Won” beyond the Military | Sep 2, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to announce a panel discussion featuring contributors to The Middle East Journal’s 2021 Spring and Summer Issues. As the civil war in Syria endures after a decade of conflict, Bashar al-Assad continues to pursue his consolidation of authority and regime legitimization. Aside from military tactics, Assad has diversified his approach to this pursuit through a number of tactics, including swaying influential social and religious leaders to support state security measures and depending on foreign aid to support the reconstruction of the country. A panel of journal contributors will join to discuss these broader themes featured in their articles and delve deeper into the internal workings of the Syrian regime.   

Speakers:

Rahaf Aldoughli
Contributor, Middle East Journal; Lecturer, Middle East and North African Studies, Lancaster University

Guy Burton
Contributor, Middle East Journal; Visiting Fellow, LSE Middle East Centre

Eric Lob
Contributor, Middle East Journal; Associate Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, Florida International University

Emma Beals (moderator)
Non-resident scholar, MEI

7. Prospects for US-Iran Relations under Raisi | Sep 2, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here

The Iranian Studies Unit of the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies and Arab Center Washington DC invite you to a lecture by Dr. Vali Nasr on the prospects for US-Iran relations under the Ebrahim Raisi and Joe Biden Administrations. Dr. Nasr is the Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.  

Speakers:

Vali Nasr (speaker)
Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)

Khalil E. Jahshan (moderator)
Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC

Mehran Kamrava (moderator)
Chair, Iranian Studies Unit, Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies

8. Learning the Lessons of Afghanistan | Sep 2, 2021 | 7:00 PM EST | Institute for Policy Studies | Register Here

IPS’ Fellow, Phyllis Bennis will be featured in a webinar series, presented by Massachusetts Peace Action. A forum of three deeply knowledgeable speakers who will give their response to these themes and their suggested lessons.

Speakers:

Kathy Kelly
Nonviolent activist

Phyllis Bennis
Middle East Politics Specialist, Institute for Policy Studies

Chris Velazquez
Afghanistan War veteran; Digital Director, Veterans for Peace

Will Hopkins (moderator)
New Hampshire Peace Action

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Peace Picks | August 2-6, 2021

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

  1. Restoring a federal governance system in Sudan | Aug 2, 2021 | 9:00 AM EST | Chatham House | Register Here

The signing of the Juba Peace Agreement in October 2020, and a constitutional decree issued in March 2021 by the Chairman of the Sovereign Council, are both significant markers towards the restoration of a federal governance system in Sudan. Establishing a decentralized system of governance that bridges the development gap between the centre and the regions is a significant challenge. But it is hoped that the genuine devolution of power will support peace-building, result in more equitable distribution of wealth and resources, and amplify local priorities in Sudan’s regions.

At this event, panellists will discuss the implementation of a new federal governance architecture in Sudan, the establishment of structures that will ensure more equitable development across the country and priorities for local governance.

Speakers:

Hon. Adeeb Yousif
Governor of Central Darfur, Republic of Sudan

Anwar Elhaj
Researcher and Political Analyst

Dr. Mona Mohamed Taha Ayoub
Lecturer, Institute of Public Administration and Federalism, University of Khartoum

Dr. Louise Walker
Chargé d’Affaires, British Embassy in Sudan

Ahmed Soliman (Chair)
Research Fellow at the Africa Programme, Chatham House

  1. Turkey-Israel relations in a changing geopolitical landscape | Aug 4, 2021 | 8:30 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Relations between Turkey and Israel have been historically low since a diplomatic rift in 2010, characterized by an atmosphere of mutual distrust and punctuated by recurring crises. Historically, as the United States’ two closest allies in the region, Turkey and Israel had enjoyed a close strategic relationship. Now, with changing regional dynamics in the form of the Abraham Accords, mutual concerns about the Syrian War and Iran’s role in the region, and the recent change in Israel’s government present new opportunities and environments for the two countries to engage in dialogue.

This panel will discuss the outlook for the relation between these two regional powers.

Speakers:

Jonathan H. Ferziger
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Former Bloomberg Middle East Correspondent

Amb. Mithat Rende
Former Ambassador and Permanent Representative of Turkey to the OECD

Prof. Brenda Shaffer
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Energy Center, Atlantic Council

Amb. Matthew J. Bryza (moderator)
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council IN TURKEY, Global Energy Center & Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council

Defne Arslan (welcoming remarks)
Director, Atlantic Council IN TURKEY, Atlantic Council

  1. Enhancing security in the Black Sea: The future of security cooperation | Aug 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Since Moscow launched its war on Ukraine in 2014, NATO has taken substantial steps to bolster security for its eastern members, particularly with a stronger presence in the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania. The NATO approach to security in the Baltic Sea has been comprehensive, as all NATO members in the region and other states recognize the dangers posed by a revisionist Kremlin. But NATO efforts along the southern flank, in the Black Sea region, are not as far along.

This panel will discuss NATO’s role in the Black Sea region and what security cooperation among these states will look like in the future.

Speakers:

Leah Scheunemann (welcoming remarks)
Deputy Director, Transatlantic Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council

Alton Buland
Director, South and Central Europe, US Department of Defense

Dr. Can Kasapoğlu
Director of Security and Defense Research, The Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM)

Ambassador Elena Poptodorova
Vice President, Atlantic Club of Bulgaria

Dr. Harlan Ullman
Senior Advisor, Atlantic Council; Chairman, The Killowen Group

Irina Zidaru
Director General for Strategic Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Romania

Amb. John Herbst (moderator)
Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council

  1. Why Tunisia’s democratic transition still matters? | Aug 4, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Chatham House | Register Here

Late on Sunday 25 July 2021, the 64th anniversary of the proclamation of the Tunisian Republic, the Tunisian president, Kais Saied declared he will assume the executive power in country, dismissing the government of the Prime Minster Hichem Mechichi and suspending the parliament. He also declared the suspension of the legal immunity of parliament members and taking control of the general prosecutor’s office.

Struggle over powers and mandates has been characteristic of the Tunisian political system over the past decade. Since the eruption of the Tunisian revolution in 2011, significant political progress towards democracy has been achieved. However, over the past year, Tunisia has witnessed disagreements over cabinet reshuffles and control of the security forces, complicating the efforts to handle a recent fierce COVID-19 wave, structural economic hardship and a looming fiscal crisis. Are the shaky political progress and the sluggish economic progress a threat to the nascent democratic transition in Tunisia? Or are the ongoing developments part of Tunisia’s democratization process?

The webinar will explore the factors that paved the way to the dramatic moment of the evening of 25 July 2021, assess the options for Tunisia’s democratic transition, and why this transition is still relevant in the first place.

Speakers:

Dr Laryssa Chomiak
Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Fadil Aliriza
Editor In Chief, Meshkal

Prof Daniel Brumberg
Director of Democracy and Governance Studies, Georgetown University; Non-resident Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC

Aymen Bessalah
Advocacy and Policy Analyst, Al Bawsala

Dr Lina Khatib (moderator)
Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

  1. A New Transatlantic Policy Approach Towards the Western Balkans | Aug 4, 2021 | 11:30 AM EST | CSIS | Register Here

As the Biden administration pledges to work closely with its European allies, new policy approaches, development tools, and dialogue mechanisms to revitalize transatlantic policy across the region are essential as these countries grapple with weak institutions, endemic corruption, democratic backsliding, and are increasingly influenced by strategic competition. 

The panel will engage in an in-depth regional conversation that explores German policy toward the region and how the U.S. and Germany and the EU can achieve better policy outcomes in the Western Balkans.

Speakers:

MdB Peter Beyer
Coordinator of Transatlantic Cooperation, German Federal Foreign Office; Western Balkans Rapporteur, German Parliament

James O’Brien
Vice Chair, Albright Stonebridge Group

Heather A. Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic & Director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, CSIS

Paul Linnarz (opening remarks)
Director, Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung Office USA

  1. Tunisia’s Constitutional Crisis and Yearning for Democracy in Northwest Africa | Aug 5, 2021 | 10:00 AM EST | Arab Center Washington DC | Register Here

On July 25, 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied fired the prime minister and suspended Parliament in what some have called a coup. The move followed nationwide protests demanding the premier’s resignation and the dissolution of the parliament as the coronavirus outbreak pushed the healthcare system to collapse and worsened economic conditions.

In light of these developments in Tunisia, site of the Arab Spring’s only democratic success story, Arab Center Washington DC is organizing a webinar to discuss the status of democratization in Northwest Africa, specifically focusing on Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, and Morocco. Panelists will discuss the implications of President Saied’s move and its constitutionality, the state of democratization in the region and the impact of events in Tunisia, the role and interventions by regional powers like Egypt and Gulf countries, and policy recommendation to support democratic processes and governance reform across Northwest Africa.

Speakers:

Yasmina Abouzzohour
Visiting Fellow, Brookings Doha Center

Khaoula Ben Gayesse
Tunisian Journalist

Dalia Ghanem Yazbeck
Resident Scholar, Carnegie Middle East Center

  1. Pakistan’s National Security Outlook: A Conversation with Pakistani National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf | Aug 5, 2021 | 11:00 AM EST | The United States Institute of Peace | Register Here

Since the country’s founding, Pakistan’s national security priorities have been largely defined by the realities of its geopolitical neighborhood. Now, with escalating violence in Afghanistan, intensifying competition between the United States and China, limited hopes for rapprochement with India, and the COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan’s neighborhood is evolving — and Pakistan’s national security approach will have to evolve with it.

This discussion with Pakistan’s National Security Advisor Moeed Yusuf will look at what these developments mean for Pakistan’s national security outlook towards its neighbors and its relationship with the United States, as well as how the pandemic impacts Pakistan’s security and economic policy.

Speakers:

Dr. Moeed Yusuf
National Security Advisor, Islamic Republic of Pakistan

Hon. Stephen J. Hadley (moderator)
Chair of the Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace

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The pandemic weakened the weakest governments and social groups

The Middle East Institute June 15 hosted a seminar discussing the impact of COVID-19 on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This was in collaboration with the recently released 6th wave of the Arab Barometer, an expansive regional survey. Using the results from this survey and analysis from the Brookings Doha Center, the panel assessed the pandemic’s effects on the region and the perceived efficiency of government responses. As the survey was held in three rounds throughout 2020-2021, the Arab Barometer could also register changes over time. Bottom line: the pandemic exacerbated the region’s existing problems and the hardest hit were the most vulnerable communities (refugees, the poor, and women).

The speakers were:

Yasmina Abuzzuhour
Visiting fellow
Brookings-Doha Center

Salma Al-Shami
Senior research specialist
Arab Barometer

Shala Al-Kli
Non-resident scholar
MEI
Deputy regional director
Mercy Corps

Karen Young (moderator)
Senior fellow and director, Program on Economics and Energy
MEI

Exacerbating existing problems

Shahla Kli COVID has worsened existing issues, particularly for IDPs and refugees. She highlighted two of these structural weaknesses in particular:

  • Lack of institutionalization: This is manifested in weak healthcare systems and social welfare programs. COVIC pushed these to their limits. Furthermore, some countries (such as Syria or Lebanon) lack well-structured recovery and vaccination plans, exacerbating and lengthening the crisis.
  • Unemployment/the ‘youth bulge’: Problems in the labor market abound in the MENA region. Many of its youthful populations work in informal, day-to-day jobs. This is particularly true for migrants and refugees. Often these jobs disappeared during lockdowns. Conversely, many poor citizens and migrants had no choice but to continue working despite the pandemic, potentially falling ill themselves.

Public opinion

Salma al-Shami outlined the relevant results of the Arab Barometer on this topic. The Barometer gathered data on seven countries (Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia) due to financial and access constraints. She summarized the findings in five main points:

  • Concern for COVID is still high in these countries, but it is significantly higher among women than among men.
  • The loss of education for children and increased cost of living were the the number one and two concerns. In Jordan some 140 days of education were lost according to UNESCO, and even more in Iraq.
  • Public opinion on government response to COVID varies with the assessment of the healthcare system and inflation control. If these are positively rated, the government’s response also tends to be. This is the case in Morocco and Tunisia for example, while Lebanon and Iraq lack such public confidence. Morocco was also the only country where significant relief packages were deployed. Some 49% of respondents in that country indicated they received some form of aid, where that number didn’t top 20% in any of the other countries.
  • Concerning vaccines, there is still some hesitancy. Where trust in government is high, so is the willingness to take a vaccine, as in Morocco which has already seen an exemplary vaccine rollout compared to its neighbors. However, in Jordan, Algeria, Iraq, and Tunisia, only 35-42% indicate they are willing to take a vaccine. Abouzzouhour added that in Jordan conspiracy theories surrounding the vaccines are rampant, and that the government is often not the public’s primary source of information.
  • The survey data also indicates that COVID has exacerbated issues of income inequality and unemployment. Few respondents indicated they lost their jobs because of COVID-related lockdowns, although many did experience a temporary job interruption. Women and migrant labor in general suffered greater consequences.

Government responses

Adding to the statistics related to government response to COVID, Abouzzouhour commented that governments overpromised and underdelivered. The first wave saw major lockdowns and task forces with health experts, leading to a comparatively strong performance. However, the initial best cases (Tunisia and Jordan) failed to follow through on their success because they favored opening up for their economies. Additionally, relief packages and strong vaccination drives often faltered, despite government promises. In general, countries that previously underinvested in healthcare (as a percentage of their GDP) suffered high mortality rates.

Two interesting cases emerged from her story. Once again, Morocco was underlined as a strong performer in vaccination compared to its neighbors. Algeria is less clear-cut. It has some of the lowest infection rates in the region. However, its mortality rate is comparatively high, indicating that case numbers are likely underreported more than in other countries. Algeria was also criticized for failing to set up significant relief packages, despite the nation’s hydrocarbon resources.

Watch the recording of the event here:

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Ten years of Arab protests but little change

Almost ten years have passed since the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi sparked mass protests in Tunisia, sparking regime change and brutal civil wars across the Arab world. While most consider the initial uprisings in 2011 an abject failure for the cause of democracy in the region, the resurgence of mass protests over the last two years in Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria and elsewhere demonstrate that the Arab Spring continues to smolder. The Wilson Center convened a panel of scholars to address the future for a region destabilized by ten years of civil unrest. 

Rami Khouri: Former Public Policy Scholar; Director of Global Engagement, American University of Beirut, columnist, Agence Global Syndicate, USA, and The New Arab, London and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School

Marina Ottaway: Middle East Fellow, Former Senior Research Associate and Head of the Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Ziad Abu-Rish: Co-Director, MA Program in Human Rights and the Arts, Bard College; Co-Editor, Jadaliyya

Merissa Khurma, moderator: Program Manager, Middle East Program

The genie is out of the bottle

Rami Khouri, Marina Ottaway and Ziad Abu-Rish all concurred that mass protests were a “new normal” for the Middle East that should be expected throughout the region into the future. 

Khouri points to several factors that prompt citizens across the region to protest their governments. The economic situation has become dire for many citizens of Arab states. The middle class has all but disappeared and most governments are no longer able to provide basic necessities for their citizens. Citizens are overwhelmingly turning to civil society for support. COVID-19 has increased inequality regionwide. MENA is the only region that is overwhelmingly authoritarian and adept at suppressing discontent. The resulting clash between the desperation of the citizenry and repression will lead to more mass protests until one side finally gives way. 

The speakers concur that the same economic factors that stir discontent can also deprive protests of their strength. Abu-Rish notes that fatigue from economic deprivation has caused a lull in the Lebanese protests after the explosion. Arab governments understand this, and thus are playing a war of attrition against protestors. 

Solidarity has grown through shared strife

Rami has noticed another new phenomenon created by a decade of protests  – a cross-cutting sense of national identity. Ottoway echoed this sentiment, explaining that as protestors from different walks of life interact with each other, they realize that they are protesting for the same set of basic human needs and are able to overcome their ideological differences. But she cautions that not all Arabs share the same principles of citizenry; some are happy to live under authoritarian leaders if doing so grants them security and privilege. 

But opposition needs leadership

Ottaway and Abu-Rish were less optimistic about the prospects of democratization and liberalization in the Middle East than Khouri. The protestors, while they are united in the belief that the status quo must be changed, have competing visions about what should replace it. Ottaway also notes that, historically, change almost always occurs from the top down. The decentralized nature of the protests means that protestors will find it difficult to persuade policymakers that change is needed. She points to Tunisia, Sudan, and the American civil rights movement to argue that change only occurrs because there are leaderships within the opposition that persuaded the ruling elites to make changes.

To watch the event in full, click here.

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