Tag: Yemen
Peace picks, October 28 – November 1
Out early this week:
1. Impact of Donor Counter-Terrorism Measures on Principled Humanitarian Action
Monday, October 28, 2013 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM
CSIS – 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC
Introductory Remarks by: Sam Worthington , President & CEO, InterAction
Panel Discussion:
Valerie Amos Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, United Nations
Jan Egeland Secretary General, Norwegian Refugee Council
Ambassador Daniel Fried Coordinator of Sanctions Policy, U.S. State Department
Ambassador William Garvelink Senior Adviser, CSIS Project on U.S. Leadership in Development and Former U.S. Ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Moderated by: Daniel Runde Director of the Project on Prosperity and Development and William A. Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis, CSIS
Please RSVP to PPD@csis.org.
Despite the global attention to counter-terrorism and human rights issues, the impact of counter-terrorism measures on humanitarian action has not been studied in detail. To address this gap, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Norwegian Refugee Council released a report in July 2013 entitled the Study of the Impact of Donor Counter-Terrorism Measures on Principled Humanitarian Action. The report takes a comprehensive look at how counter-terror measures are impacting the ability of humanitarian agencies to respond to emergencies, especially in countries on the front lines of the war on terror, and makes recommendations on how to reconcile these measures with the humanitarian imperative. Join us for a conversation with representatives from the United Nations, the Norwegian Refugee Council, and the United States Government as they discuss the impact of these restrictions in countries such as Afghanistan, Somalia, and the West Bank and Gaza, and in countries of possible future impact, including Mali, Pakistan, and Yemen.
2. WOMEN AND PEACEBUILDING: WOMEN’S ROLES IN POLITICAL TRANSITIONS IN YEMEN AND THE REGION
Monday, October 28, 2013 2:30 – 4:00 p.m.
National Democratic Institute 8th Floor Board Room 455 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, D.C.
And streaming online at: www.ndi.org/live
With Amat Al Alim Alsoswa, Delegate, Yemen National Dialogue Conference and former Minister of Human Rights
Susan Markham, Director, Women’s Political Participation, NDI
Summer Lopez, Regional Coordinator for the Middle East (Acting) Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance, USAID
The importance of including women in peace negotiations, transitional governments and long-term political processes is increasingly recognized by national and international bodies as critical for the stability of emerging democracies. In each stage of a country’s transition, whether entrenched in conflict or moving forward in reconciliation, there are opportunities available for women’s inclusion that can have a profound effect on the successful outcome of a country’s transition of power, peace and security.
This discussion will draw upon Yemen’s National Dialogue process and examples from ongoing transitions in the Middle East and North Africa to highlight challenges and lessons learned for promoting women’s participation in peace negotiations and political transitions.
Please RSVP via this webform.
3. Political Turmoil, Human Costs: Reflections on the Kashmir Conflict
3:00 PM – 4:30 PM EST
REGISTER TO ATTEND
With incidents along their disputed border still relatively common, India and Pakistan’s decades-old quarrel over Kashmir shows little hope of subsiding. Join Kashmir-born author and journalist Rahul Pandita for a discussion of the conflict and his new memoir of his childhood in and exile from Kashmir, Our Moon Has Blood Clots(Random House India, 2013).
Pandita will offer a rare perspective on the dispute, combining political analysis with the personal experience of growing up as part of a religious minority group in one of the world’s most unstable regions. Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis will moderate.
RAHUL PANDITA
Rahul Pandita is a journalist and author based in New Delhi. He was the 2010 recipient of the International Red Cross award for conflict reporting, and has written extensively about conflict in Iraq, Sri Lanka, and Kashmir.
ASHLEY J. TELLIS
Ashley J. Tellis is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues.
4. New Leadership in Tehran: Time for Rapprochement?
DATE / TIME Monday, October 28, 2013 / 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
LOCATION Elliott School of International Affairs, SMPA 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052 (map)
SPEAKER(S) John Limbert, Dr. Shireen Hunter
Ambassador John Limbert, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran
Dr. Shireen Hunter, Visiting Fellow, Center for Christian Muslim Understanding and Director, Carnegie Endowment Project on reformist Islam
The George Washington University International Affairs Society and the American Iranian Council will be hosting ‘New Leadership in Iran: Time for Rapprochement?’, a conference that will identify the prospects and mechanisms for a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran relations. The conference aims to build upon the momentum created by the election of moderate Dr. Hassan Rouhani as Iranian President, President Obama’s engagement policy with Tehran and the recent events in Geneva and at the United Nations General Assembly to generate ideas for a possible settlement of the nuclear dossier.
RSVP: bit.ly/GThrgi
Sponsored by the GW International Affairs Society and the American Iranian Council
5. Regional Cooperation: An Imperative for Transatlantic Defense
October 29, 2013 – 1:30 pm
1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor
Washington, DC
An address and discussion with
H.E. Carl Haglund
Minster of Defense
Republic of Finland
Introduced and Moderated by
Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President
Atlantic Council
Please join the Atlantic Council for an address by, and discussion with, Finnish Minister of Defense Carl Haglund, who will detail the importance of regional cooperation for transatlantic security.
Building on the successes of Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO), Minister Haglund will make a case for NATO member and partner countries to follow a similar framework to sustain present-day interoperability levels and enhance military capabilities. NORDEFCO’s five members states—Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden—use regional networking to increase their interoperability via cross-border cooperation, build-up and maintain necessary military capabilities, and provide cost-effective contributions to international efforts.
Representatives of the press are welcome, and all the proceedings of this event are on-the-record.
When you arrive, please use the the West Tower elevators.
Business attire is requested.
If you encounter problems with the registration process, please contact us.
Bios
H.E. Carl Haglund has been the minister of defense of Finland since July 5, 2012. Previously, he served as the party leader of the Swedish People’s Party, and from 2009 to 2012 he was a member of the European Parliament. In 2008, he assumed the position of state secretary for the minister of culture and sport, and in 2007 he was an adviser to the ministers of the Swedish People’s Party.
6. Iraq’s Transition: Remarks by Iraqi Prime Minister H.E. Mr. Noori al-Maliki
USIP – Thursday, October 31, 2013 10:00am
The United States Institute of Peace will host Iraqi Prime Minister H.E. Mr. Noori al-Maliki for public remarks and a discussion on U.S.-Iraq relations, and the current challenges facing Iraq and the region.
Webcast: This event will be webcast live beginning at 10:00am ET on October 31.
Iraq has made significant progress since the last of U.S. troops left the country in December 2011, but continues to face serious challenges. Iraq’s economy became stronger, provincial and regional elections were organized, and the country has made steady steps toward regaining its regional and international stature. At the same time, the country is struggling with high levels of violence and other spillover effects from Syria, as it tries to hold national elections in 2014 and find a workable common vision of governance.
To discuss these matters and more, kindly join us for what promises to be an interesting event at 10:00-11:30am on October 31, 2013 at USIP’s Headquarters in Washington D.C. Follow the conversation on Twitter with @USIP, @IraqiEmbassyUSA, and #USIPIraq.
Agenda:
Jim Marshall, Opening Remarks and Moderator President, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Beth Jones, Introductory Remarks Acting Assistant Secretary of State – Near Eastern Affairs
H.E. Noori al-Maliki, Keynote Remarks Prime Minister of Republic of Iraq
Moderated discussion
7. The Way Forward in Afghanistan: Embracing Opportunity in the Midst of Transition
Thursday October 31, 2013 12:15-1:45pm
New America Foundation
Since 2001, the United States has been heavily engaged in Afghanistan. The failures of this effort have been well documented, but what has often been overlooked are the immense gains that have been achieved.
As Afghanistan enters a turbulent transition period, including presidential elections in April 2014, the ongoing transition from U.S.-led to Afghan-led security operations, and the draw down of U.S. troops, it is important that U.S. policymakers keep the full picture in mind.
Calls for the United States to walk away from Afghanistan ignore the progress that has been made, and such a result would be catastrophic for the people of Afghanistan. It would also call into question the last 12 years of U.S.efforts in the country.
The New America Foundation and the Alliance in Support of the Afghan People are pleased to invite you to a discussion about the prospects for Afghanistan’s future,in light of past progress and upcoming challenges.
Featured Speakers:
Haseeb Humayoon
Member of Afghanistan 1400
Clare Lockhart
President, Institute for State Effectiveness
David Sedney
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan,
Pakistan, and Central Asia
Eleanor Smeal
President, Feminist Majority Foundation
Moderator:
Senior Fellow, New America Foundation
To RSVP for the event, click on the red button or go to the event page:
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/the_way_forward_in_afghanistan
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When nothing fails so much as success
The New York Times front page yesterday featured reports by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch criticizing US drone attacks in Pakistan (in particular North Waziristan) and Yemen, respectively. At the same time, the Washington Post published Linda Robinson’s op/ed claiming that they will be used relatively less in the future. It seems we have come to prefer on-the-ground special forces raids, whether we conduct them or our partners do.
It is nice to know that after hundreds of drone strikes abroad we’ve come to realize that there is nothing antiseptic about them. No matter how precise, they cannot be 100% accurate. They kill people we don’t intend to kill. That is what the Amnesty and HRW reports are focused on: the immediate threat to civilian non-combatants. The two reports document meticulously that we are not only hitting our intended terrorist targets. We are hitting other people too, sometimes in ways that breach the laws of war and declared US policy. Those are major concerns for Amnesty and HRW, which argue their case–as one would expect–mainly on legal and human rights grounds.
Those are not my major concerns, much as I deplore the loss of innocent lives. Conventional military means would also kill people other than those targeted, likely many more than drones do. Nor can I regret that drones save American servicepeople from harm. That’s what most advances in military technology do–enable us to kill more of the enemy while preventing them from killing more of us. War is not a pretty, or a glorious, business. Read more
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The gulf with the Gulf
Yesterday was Gulf day. I spent part of the morning reading Christopher Davidson, who thinks the Gulf monarchies are headed for collapse due to internal challenges, their need for Western support, Iran’s growing power and their own disunity. Then I turned to Greg Gause, who attributes their resilience to the oil-greased coalitions and external networks they have created to support their rule. He predicts their survival.
At lunch I ambled across the way to CSIS’s new mansion to hear Abdullah al Shayji, chair of political science at Kuwait University and unofficial Gulf spokeperson, who was much exorcised over America’s response to Iran’s “charm offensive,” which he said could not have come at a worse time. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was already at odds with the US. The Gulf was not warned or consulted about the phone call between Iranian President Rouhani and President Obama. Saudi Arabia’s refusal to occupy the UN Security Council seat it fought hard to get was a signal of displeasure. The divergences between the GCC and the US range across the Middle East: Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Iraq and Palestine, in addition to Iran.
On top of this, US oil and gas production is increasing. China is now a bigger oil importer than the US and gets a lot more of its supplies from the Gulf. Washington is increasingly seen as dysfunctional because of its partisan bickering. Its budget problems seem insoluble. American credibility is declining. The Gulf views the US as unreliable. Read more
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Anything but Syria
Danya Greenfield, moderator of Thursday’s Atlantic Council event on Yemen, joked that it is nice to discuss something other than Syria. Panelists at the Rafik Hariri Center and Project on Middle East Democracy event included:
- Peter Salisbury from the Chatham House Yemen Forum,
- Christopher Jennings from USAID, and
- Fatima al Asrar, an independent policy analyst.
The discussion focused on the political and economic changes in Yemen since the mass protests of 2011 and the removal of Ali Abdullah Saleh from power in 2012 as well as the international community’s assistance role.
The ousted president, Salisbury said, used patronage to keep local authorities under his influence, resolve conflicts and maintain unity in a traditionally decentralized country. He allowed only those who pledged their allegiance to him access to businesses. Even after liberalization of the economy in the 1990s, only his allies could have businesses with access to foreign markets. Abdullah Saleh built a loyal political and economic elite.
This system left no money for infrastructure and development and most of the population in extreme poverty. Inequality became an issue when the opposition fielded an opponent in the 2006 presidential elections. But it was only after the 2011 uprising that the international community, concerned with security issues, got engaged.
Current President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi has removed top military officials and elites, destabilizing the country and putting more power in the hands of tribal militias. The opposition Islah Party and the ruling General People’s Congress have been unable to cooperate. The transition in Yemen will take years and even decades, with a real possibility of return to the old system of elite rule that existed under Abdullah Saleh.
Jennings discussed what USAID has been doing in Yemen to maintain security in the country. The 2011 protests brought real potential for change and reform. There is a real commitment to have an inclusive and transparent National Dialogue, which has been unique among the Arab transitions, and to democracy. USAID has attempted to move away from a “check-box” approach. It has focused on expansion of the political process to ensure the inclusion of groups such as women and youth. USAID programs are not just targeting the old elites under Abdullah Saleh but also working with local and district officials and civil society organizations, which however sometimes pursue the objectives of donors rather than their target constituents. Yemen’s stability depends on governance and economic reforms and the eventual writing of a constitution. Radicals hinder that process, but USAID is committed to maintaining the momentum of reform and completing the transition process.
Al Asrar sees a real opportunity for reform in Yemen. With Abdullah Saleh removed from power, the barriers to foreign aid are gone and the Friends of Yemen have promised $8 billion in aid, in accordance with a “mutual accountability” framework. Before the protests of 2011, Yemen was facing many economic challenges, which have exacerbated during the transition period. Al Asrar argues that the Yemeni government needs to take the lead and steer donors to its needs. Political and economic processes need to merge. The Yemeni government does not see its partnerships with the international community as being reliable because donors pull their aid at any sign of instability, leaving many Yemenis without essential resources. Yemen is a fragile state, but foreign governments need to find ways to give predictable aid.
Greenfield concluded that there is a consensus Yemen needs a long-term approach. There is reason for optimism – Yemen has not fallen to divisions and civil war like Syria. Yet, the transition period has still not met the demands of the youth that protested and demanded participation of all Yemenis in the political process.
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Solid kernels in a not so good idea
My SAIS colleague Ed Joseph and Aaron David Miller earlier this week put forward a proposal for a Union of Arab Democracies that merits examination despite its deep and fatal flaws. There are nuggets therein worth preserving.
The idea in their words is this:
Egypt and its fractious neighbors desperately need a unifying vision that can inculcate respect for democratic norms across glaring differences. Although Arab nations have no interest in joining the European Union or NATO, the Arab world can draw on the model of Eastern European transition, with fledgling Arab democracies devising their own supra-national organization dedicated to advancing democracy. Like the E.U. in its infancy, this Union of Arab Democracies (UAD) could start with limited objectives and evolve toward ambitious goals, including, ultimately, pan-Arab political union.
Waving their magic wand, Ed and Aaron then tell us all the good things that would happen if such an organization were to come into existence, despite the shambolic history of pan-Arab political union proposals.
If Egypt and the other Arab uprising countries were capable of creating such an organization, they wouldn’t need it. The weakness of the proposal is all too apparent when Ed and Aaron get to proposing that Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority (known to me as Palestine) would be the leading democracies, with transitioning countries (Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen) and supposedly “liberalizing” countries (Morocco, Jordan and possibly Oman) tagging along. What a democratic club! Several are more likely to find themselves joining an Islamic union than a democratic one.
Nevertheless, there is a core idea here that is important: transitions need a destination. When the Berlin wall fell, the former Soviet satellites of eastern Europe and the Baltic “captive nations” quickly set their aim on meeting European Union and NATO standards. This gave direction and impetus to countries that would otherwise have wandered as aimlessly as the North African revolutions are doing today.
The way to answer the question “transition to what?” is not to have nascent Arab democracies try to figure it out for themselves. They cannot reasonably aim for membership in NATO or the EU, but they should be able to aim at two easier targets: the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe or, as my Turkish colleague Aylin Unver Noi suggests, the Council of Europe.
OSCE comprises 57 states and plays an important role in the Balkans and the more Asian parts of Eurasia. Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia are already among its “cooperating partners.” Several OSCE members are no farther along in democratizing than their Middle Eastern partners. With 47 member states, the Council of Europe regards itself as the continent’s leading human rights organization. It has a human rights court with some real enforcement capacity that could provide minorities in the Middle East with real recourse if their mother countries were to join.
The idea of extending OSCE and the Council of Europe to the southern littoral of the Mediterranean may seem far fetched, but efforts to construct more ad hoc arrangements have not worked well. Neither the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership nor the Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative gained much traction before 2011, Aylin says, and their relevance will be further reduced by the Arab uprisings.
Another of the world’s more restrictive clubs, the rich people’s Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) , has opened its doors to newly developed states like Korea and Mexico, much to their benefit and the benefit of the organization. Opening the OSCE and Council of Europe to new Middle Eastern members, who would need to meet clearly defined criteria in order to get in, would be a worthwhile experiment. It would give the Arab uprisings, if they want it, a destination as well as a tough-minded qualification process, which is really what Ed and Aaron were calling for.
So “no” to the Arab Democratic Union. “Yes” to Arab democracy that aims to meet the not too exacting standards of the OSCE and respects human rights as defined by the Council of Europe.
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Bad but not hopeless
News from the Arab uprisings this morning is particularly grim:
- In Egypt, the police and army are attacking pro-Morsi demonstrators, causing what appear to be well over 100 deaths;
- In an unconfirmed report, Italian Catholic priest and opposition enthusiast Paolo Dall’Oglio is said to have been killed by opposition Islamists in Syria;
- The American mission in Yemen remains closed as the US continues its heightened drone war against militants.
Add to these items the Islamist government in Tunisia finding itself unable to protect non-Islamist politicians from assassination and Libya’s continuing difficulty in gaining control over revolutionary militias and you’ve got a pretty ugly picture.
I don’t want to minimize any of this. It is all real and problematic. But it is not catastrophic. Revolutions have their bad moments (and days, months and years). Some of them end badly. There is no guarantee that won’t be the case in the Middle East, with some or all of the uprisings.
Egypt is in the most peril. It has not found a steady course but lurches between extremes: either military-backed secularists or Muslim Brotherhood/Salafist dominance. Co-habitation of the two has proven unworkable. It is hard to picture how today’s crackdown can put things right. The Islamists will find it harder to compromise. Secularists and minorities will fear even more a return of the Brotherhood to power. Read more
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