I am not sure which is the better indicator: the arrest of extremists in advance of the (mostly) Shia holy day of Ashura and the relative quiet yesterday and today, or the Economist’s report that traffic accidents are up and the authorities are again issuing drivers’ licenses in Baghdad.
These non-events signal that things are improving in Iraq and that the Iraqi security forces are beginning to be capable of protecting the citizenry. Another good indicator: complaints about corruption are on the rise (but see this critique of Transparency International’s rating of Iraq before reaching conclusions about how it ranks overall). Corruption is not something you worry about when mass murder is occurring.
Of course the week was not entirely peaceful, and tomorrow there could be another horrific event. But give credit where it is due–my hat is off to Prime Minister Maliki, Interior Minister Bolani and the others responsible for security, as well as to ordinary Iraqis for their long suffering and fortitude. Ashura has been a particularly bad moment for violence in Iraq since 2004. To pass the week without the kind of multiple, politically significant attacks that Al Qaeda likes to direct against Shia worshippers is good news in my book.
Iyad Allawi has agreed to join the governing coalition if there is genuine power-sharing. Now if Prime Minister Maliki can name a government and get it approved in parliament by Christmas eve, when his 30 days runs out, that would be the icing on the cake.
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