peacefare.net

From the midst of uncertainty

Rashad Mahmood, back in touch now that the internet is functioning, writes from Cairo:

It seems the regime is still divorced from reality, but now at least realizes that some superficial changes need to be made. The new Secretary-General of the NDP, Hossam Badrawy is more respectable than the recognized crooks such as Safwat El-Sherif and Ahmed Ezz, but these changes are basically a tangent to the substance of what the demonstrators want. One friend with knowledge of the NDP sees this as a move to preserve the respectability of the NDP post-Mubarak, and turning it into a normal center-right party that would look after the interests of the business elites, while other parties would move in to fill the gap to its left.

However, the state and the NDP are so inseparable at this point that it is hard to envision how this transition would happen. Can the institutions captured by the party such as the electoral commission, large swaths of the judiciary, the entire security services, and others really let the party become one among many? That’s the question going forward. It is also unknown to what extent Suleiman is integrated into the NDP apparatus, if at all, which raises interesting questions for a potential Suleiman presidency.

This is all distinct from the substantive demands of the protesters for the removal of Mubarak, lifting the emergency law, new elections, and constitutional reform. All they have right now is the word of Suleiman and Shafiq, which no one seems inclined to take at face value.

There is no clear leadership of the demonstrators. There seems to be a network of organizers who are keeping things running, and in time some of them may come to have a greater voice, but I have not heard of anyone really stepping up to the plate. This may be to the advantage of the protesters, since there is no one the regime can target to decapitate the movement. El Baradei still seems somewhat marginal, despite the Brotherhood’s backing, although it’s hard to tell from my living room.  Who knows what backroom negotiations are going on?

The only other potential leadership on the horizon is the group of “wise men” that issued the statement that Carnegie translated. There are some very well-respected names on the list from both the business and liberal intellectual worlds. Allegedly there have been talks between the regime and representatives of the group, but will the protesters feel cut out of the process? One tweeter said, something like, “beware of billionaires claiming to side with a revolution.”

Last few thoughts. Some are saying that the regime has successfully fought off the protesters and that it is going to survive with a more liberal, but fundamentally authoritarian system. While I think this is a possibility, I would say that there are still too many moving pieces to say definitively, and too many opportunities for the regime to screw things up (from their perspective).

The lost international legitimacy is going to be hard to make up without some substantive reforms. If it does relapse into a mostly authoritarian system with Suleiman at the helm, it will be interesting to see how the US reacts. After all the publicity, and the high-profile calls for substantive change and reform, it will be hard to defend Suleiman when he cracks down on protesters or tries to rig elections.