Counterrevolution, again

With the U.S. Government immobilized by its own self-generated problems–a kind of self-licking ice cream cone phenomenon–dictators are resurgent in the Middle East again.  They are doing what they know to do best:  killing their own citizens, hoping that will make the popular protests against their interminable rule go away.

In Syria, the demonstrations were once again widespread yesterday, if not gigantic.  The killing seems to have focused on the southern town of Deraa, where Bashar al Assad seems to be wanting to demonstrate how really dangerous it is to protest persistently.  In Yemen, yesterday’s killing focused on Taiz, a southern town that President Ali Saleh sees as the leading edge of separatism.  In Egypt, Tahrir square was cleared in the early morning hours by an army riot.  In Libya, Gaddafi continues to make mincemeat of rebel forces, which have also been bombed unintentionally by NATO. Negotiations with the Gaddafi family are ongoing, but Washington seems to be holding a hard line on getting them all out of Libya.  In Bahrain, the monarchy continues with a hard line on the demonstrations, which it increasingly paints with a sectarian brush.

It is surprising to me that the dictators think this will work, but they know their own people better than I do.  Alistair Crooke published yesterday on foreignpolicy.com a piece on “Syrian exceptionalism” that essentially says Bashar knows best and will win his bet.  There will surely be people in the U.S. administration who are also hoping now to stem the tide and save a few really important autocratic regimes (Bahrain and Saudi Arabia foremost) for future use, while arranging soft landings for others (Yemen in particular).  Secretary of Defense Gates has been running up his frequent flyer miles with visits to key stalwarts and Gulf states worried about the situation.

That said, President Obama has issued strong statements on Syria and Yemen in recent days.  He seems much more inclined to emphasize the legitimate aspirations of the people than to help preserve Bashar and Bashir.

It is nowhere written that counterrevolution will fail, and in fact it has often succeeded.  Regime principals and their oligarchs are clever about using their remaining power and money to divide the opposition, crack down on the weaker but more militant portion, and preserve at least some vestige of their own privilege and control.  We should expect no less from them.

Those who want to complete their revolutions and emerge as free societies with more or less representative governments will somehow need to keep the pressure on.  But they will also have to stay united, and plan carefully for where and when to confront their respective regimes nonviolently.   The consequences of violent rebellion should by now be obvious to everyone who follows events in Libya–it isn’t pretty, and it may not end well.

PS:  Just to complete the picture, in Ivory Coast Laurent Gbagbo’s forces are reportedly today attacking the hotel where Alassane is headquartered, as well as the French Embassy.  You have to wonder when Paris will see fit to take decisive action.