Day: April 13, 2011
When the going gets rough
While the Libya “contact group” is discussing funding for the rebels, NATO is defending itself from charges of not being sufficiently aggressive and the African Union is proposing a ceasefire, Gaddafi’s forces are trying to take Misrata, the third largest city in Libya.
The rebels have made it clear they won’t accept any deal that keeps Gaddafi in power, but the UN, Arab League, and EU are scheduled to meet anyway with the African Union, which has proposed just that, tomorrow in Cairo.
NATO Foreign Ministers meet Thursday and Friday in Berlin. It will be a difficult meeting for Secretary of State Clinton, who needs to encourage NATO allies to do more even as Defense Secretary Gates resists augmenting U.S. military efforts.
In short: things are going badly for the rebels and the international community, well for Gaddafi.
This does not mean he wins, however. At this point, it looks as if the best he can hope for is a stalemate, with the country divided east and west. Unfortunately, that is a very bad outcome for the international community, one that would burden it for a long time to come and open up all sorts of opportunities for “bad actors” to engage on one side or the other.
Capturing or getting Gaddafi and his family out of Libya has to be the priority, as that could allow Libya to be reunified and create a relatively benign environment in which the EU and Arab League could take the lead on reconstruction. I don’t see how a cease-fire, as Les Gelb proposes, would help that cause. To the contrary, it is doubtful Gaddafi would observe one or that the international community could enforce one. It would allow the two sides to regroup and rearm for the next round, which is not exactly a virtue in my book.
Ivory Coast, of all things, points in the right direction: with Laurent Gbagbo arrested (see video below), not killed, the country has an opportunity to go down a relatively peaceful post-war path. Those who wish Libya well will hope it gets a similar opportunity, soon.
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