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Does recognition make a difference?

The United States today joined 32 other countries at what is being called a “contact group” meeting in Istanbul in recognizing the National Transitional Council (NTC) as the “legitimate governing authority” in Libya.  What difference will that make?

Obviously it is a big psychological boost to the NTC, but the real difference is money.  If the UN and U.S. lawyers can figure out how to unfreeze Libyan assets (more than $30 billion in the U.S. alone) and move even a fraction of them to Benghazi, the NTC would have all the financial resources required not only to defeat Gaddafi but also to govern the country far more effectively than he ever did.  Of course what they actually do with the money is another question, but they aren’t going to be able to do a whole lot without some of it.

The devil, as always, is in the details, not only the lawyerly ones.  Secretary of State Clinton’s statement was importantly nuanced:

…I am announcing today that, until an interim authority is in place, the United States will recognize the NTC as the legitimate governing authority for Libya, and we will deal with it on that basis.

Behind the quiet reference to an interim authority lies concern that the NTC is not fully representative.  How could it be?  Tripoli is still under Gaddafi’s control, so the Tripoli representatives on the current NTC are people who have left the capital with their families and gone to Benghazi.  As the rebels succeed in “liberating” territory, Washington expects them to expand the NTC and eventually to reformulate it entirely as an “interim authority,” including representatives from throughout Libya.  This is consistent with the NTC’s own declared intention not to become the government of Libya (and with its reported pledge that its members will not seek future offices, but no one seems to take that entirely seriously).

Precisely how this and other important steps–like writing a constitution–will be done, is unclear, even if two well-informed Libyan Americans tried to explicate it yesterday.  What is clear to me is that Libyans are not going to accept a hastily drafted constitution prepared by 15 experts behind closed doors without extensive public discussion and debate.  Have a look at this NDI report from early May:  the people who have agitated and organized themselves so quickly and well are unlikely to swallow someone else’s handiwork without getting their fingerprints on it.

Yes, recognition as a legitimate governing authority by the people who are sitting on a lot of your money makes a difference.  But Libya still has a long way to go before it has a government whose legitimacy is not based on the use of force, but rather one whose use of force is legitimate.  It is the Libyan people’s recognition that will make the really big difference, when the time comes.