Tempest in a tea pot

B92 reports that Pristina and Belgrade have reached agreement on customs stamps and documentation:  they will read only “customs of Kosovo,” which is what they have read since independence in February 2008 and contain no symbols.

None of that is very important, however much the press and commentators have gotten excited about it.  The key issue is who will be present at the border posts between Serbia and Kosovo to collect customs.  Edita Tahiri, the Pristina negotiator, is reported to say it will be Kosovo police and customs, but even that doesn’t quite tell us what we need to know, since that was also the case before the seizure in late July of gates 1 and 31 by Pristina’s special police.

The issue is whether the Kosovo police and customs will actually be people loyal to the authorities in Pristina and therefore willing to enforce its laws and collect the customs duties.  I guess we’ll have to wait and see whether that will be the case.  We shouldn’t have to wait long.  The Serbian negotiator, Boris Stefanovic, expects goods to start flowing across what he would consider the boundary line in 7 to 10 days.

What does this incident tell us about the prospects for Kosovo and Serbia to achieve “good neighborly relations,” which is the European Union’s requirement for all members?  It bodes reasonably well, provided the EU keeps the pressure on, as it did in this case.  German Foreign Minister Westerwelle and Chancellor Angela Merkel, in visits respectively to Pristina and Belgrade, made it clear that northern Kosovo needs to be reintegrated with the rest, without moving the northern border to accommodate ethnic differences.

While Belgrade still seems far from fulfilling the Westerwelle/Merkel expectation, it ducks the issue and relieves the pressure by resolving the customs issue expeditiously, even if on terms that seem manifestly favorable to Pristina.  It is after all far more important for those in Belgrade who want to hold on to north Kosovo to maintain its extensive network of Serbian institutions in the north than to worry about how the customs stamps and documentation read.

If Pristina actually collects the customs duty, that from Belgrade’s perspective will also be a plus, as it will disincentivize the illegal, tax-free trade that has deprived not only Pristina but also Belgrade of revenue. So what we’ve got here is what most negotiators would consider a “win-win” solution, even if the tempest was in a tea pot.