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A Kosovar friend sent me this triumphalist claim of Serbian victory in the recent agreement between Belgrade and Pristina on how Kosovo will be identified at meetings in which Serbia also participates:

Serbia’s success in putting an asterisk connoting the numbers “1244” in front of future Kosovar delegations to European meetings means the terms under which Kosova* participates in “Europe” explicitly recognizes the language in a resolution that preserves a measure of Serbian sovereignty over its former province. This advertisement of such sovereignty – dormant as it may be – marks tacit American acceptance of the defeat of its diplomacy of the past six years. The asterisk means America has relegated its client in Kosova* to something like the status currently enjoyed by Taiwan.

The author is my respected colleague of many years, David Kanin, who happens now also to teach at Johns Hopkins/SAIS, as I do.

But David is dead wrong.  He is trying to make more of an asterisk than the little fellow ever imagined he might be.  And more than he is.  The only thing the asterisk guarantees is the undying hostility of most of Kosovo’s population, which will no doubt begin to add one to Serbia*.

David’s claims are wrong in many ways.

Serbs and their supporters have been telling themselves since 1999 that that 1244 preserves “a measure of Serbian sovereignty over its former province.”  This is wrong, which is immediately apparent from their use of the appellation “its former province.” Even they recognize that something irreversible has happened to Kosovo. The reference to Yugoslav (now Serbian) sovereignty is in the preamble of 1244 and has no legally binding status. It simply reaffirms a commitment made at the time of the resolution:

Reaffirming the commitment of all Member States to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia

Circumstances change.  The United States and many other countries have decided that commitment no longer holds.  You may not agree with that change of heart, but nothing in 1244 prevents it.

Far more important is that 1244 clearly refers in its operative paragraphs to a political process for deciding Kosovo’s future status. Among other mentions, there is this one that refers to the responsibilities of the “international civilian presence”:

Facilitating a political process designed to determine Kosovo’s future status, taking into account the Rambouillet accords (S/1999/648);

In a final stage, overseeing the transfer of authority from Kosovo’s provisional institutions to institutions established under a political settlement;

That process, conducted under the aegis of Marti Ahtisaari, was completed years ago, with full participation (but not final approval) of Russia and Serbia. What the asterisk signifies to anyone who reads past the preamble (which has no legal standing) to the operative paragraphs of the resolution is that Kosovo has completed the process foreseen there with a clear and now widely but not universally accepted result.

Russia and Serbia are of course perfectly entitled not to recognize that result, but so are others entitled to recognize the new state. The notion that Kosovo, now recognized by 88 other sovereign states, has no more status than Taiwan is risible, though I hasten to add that I will be happy for the day it has Taiwan’s economy and even governance.  The International Court of Justice has advised that its declaration of independence was not in violation of 1244, a claim that Serbia made loudly and repeatedly. To pretend that preambular language with no legal significance outweighs not only the operative paragraphs but also an ICJ advisory opinion is to live in fantasyland.

What the agreement does for Kosovo is to get it a contractual relationship with the EU, including a “feasibility study” for a Stabilization and Association Agreement, thus neutralizing the heretofore effective veto of the five non-recognizing EU member states. While they can continue to not recognize Kosovo, they are now part of an organization that is treating it as a sovereign and independent state capable of undertaking obligations that only such states can undertake. This is no small matter, not outweighed somehow by an asterisk.

Is 1244 still in force?  Yes, since it hasn’t been altered or withdrawn.  But like many Security Council resolutions most of its terms have been fulfilled and it will fade into irrelevance.  The only benefit to Serbia of the asterisk I see is that it will make it harder to forget 1244, which unfortunately for Belgrade provides the legal basis for answering the otherwise difficult question, why is Kosovo entitled to independence and not other provinces?  The answer is 1244 and the political process for determining final status foreseen there.

I’ve challenged David to a duel.  He has accepted.  We won’t do it at dawn. But I hope we’ll meet soon in public at SAIS to cross swords and maybe provide some enlightenment to both sides of this issue.

In case anyone wonders:  my title is intended to convey the vast over-valuation of the asterisk in David’s piece.

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6 thoughts on “**********************************************”

  1. I found the Kanin piece off for many of the same reasons you do and found his repeated use of an asterisk with “Kosovo*” needlessly petty. That UNSCR 1244 remains in effect is without doubt. And I disagree with you that 1244 makes the Kosovo UDI legal. But that asterisk does noting but provide a bit of warm milk late at night to help President Tadic get to sleep. The agreement between Belgrade and Pristina allows Kosovo to represent itself in regional organizations and establish legal relationships with those same. It is recognition of functional independence if nothing else. For it, Tadic gets EU candidacy but with no date. Indeed the EU is already suggesting he must surrender north Kosovo before getting that. A winner?

    1. Definitely not a winner, although as an external – and with far less knowledge on the subject than you and mr Serwer – observer I’d say that for the first time in ages Serbia exited from a negotiation not being the absolute and only loser.

      Moreover, I don’t find a triumphalistic note in Kanin’s paper – as far as what triumphalism means to me -, but rather a criticism on US support to the agreement.

  2. I guess Daniel is arguing what Professor Harold Hongju Koh representing the United States at ICJ said:
    “The Resolution 1244 has not guaranteed the territorial integrity of Serbia, but Yugoslavia, which now does not exist, and that only during the interim period of international administration in Kosovo.”

  3. this agreement is going to pan out in due time for all parties involved. at the moment i’m more worried with extremists on kosovo and south serbia (albanian and serbian). kosovo’s government during this agreement has a lot of job to do regarding building a civil society safe for all, rule of law, corruption, criminal groups. same things serbia has to do on its road to eu that were for both, kosovo and serbia, stalled until now. let them focus on this and not worry about (or an asterix) in text.
    that said @genti serbia prior to referendum in montenegro with a team led by mr labus arranget for serbia to inherit resolution 1244.

  4. There are no legal documents recognizing Serbia as inheritor of R1244. Only Serbia claims itself as inheritor mostly for internal politics.
    I agreed with Georgio that Kanin’s piece is a direct criticism on the US policy. He’s not taking sides and giving Serbia props. He’s criticizing the US for failing to be consistent with Kosovo in strengthening its statehood.
    In fact, it’s true that the biggest loser of all is the biggest sponsor* for creating lasting piece in the Balkans. This sponsor* wasted all the billions by supporting this agreement. The sponsor* has lost all credibility and there is no more guarantee that Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia will be stable. Three days after this event, Presheva Valley reiterated unification with Kosovo and over 30,000 Albanians protested in Macedonia. The sponsor* is no longer trusted among the locals who will fight until they achieve everything.
    Serbia murdered half million, ethnically cleansed 2.5 million and still got to Republika Srpska, Vojvodina, Presheva and now has a say about Kosovo with the blessing of the sponsor*.
    Albs are wondering..if serbs got what they want despite of losing all wars, what cant they try it?
    I anticipate war in Macedonia within 1 year and followed by Presheva Valley. This is from prominent and reliable sources who are directly involved in political life in both both places.

    Asterisk on Kosovo has one loser: The Balkans and its Sponsor* of piece.

    Kosovo has a chance to reverse this decision by pursuing membership at UN GA.

  5. @genti – your data is highly inaccurate tailored in a bad way. that won’t fly.

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