Month: November 2012
May the best man win
Suffolk, VA. If you are interested in how Virginia might go in the presidential contest, I’m afraid I can’t enlighten. Better to read 538’s focus on the state published yesterday evening. It is the nature of the “ground game” that those involved in it have little idea of how it is going overall. We are talking mostly to Obama voters at this stage, trying to get them to the polls as well as recruit the most enthusiastic to join us in the canvasing and phone bank efforts.
I was out canvasing all day yesterday. First “turf” was south of Suffolk, by the Great Dismal Swamp. Gunshots of hunters punctuated the gray, rainy day. The second turf was a close-in neighborhood of blacks returning from church. The conversations were living demography. The whites either said they would not be voting or not voting for the President. Blacks said they of course would vote or had voted for him, with the occasional person who either had a felony conviction or for religious reasons could not vote. I confess I didn’t know until two days ago that Jehovah’s Witnesses do not vote.
I stopped mid-morning at a prosperous-looking brick house with a Cadillac parked out front, somewhere off White Marsh Road near the swamp. A white-haired white lady answered the door and I braced myself for the expected demographic answer. “We’re not the crazy ones,” she said,” waving generically at the surrounding neighbors. “We’re the sane ones, of course we’re voting for Obama.” That was a great relief, reminding me that demographic assumptions can always be wrong.
I finished the day in a mad rush to try to complete a third turf that others had found difficult. It was. Road too narrow to park, addresses that weren’t found at the places indicated by my GPS. New streets that my now aging maps do not include. Unleashed dogs. My partner and I gave it up as the winter light failed.
For all the much-vaunted quantitative dimension of the Obama ground game, I couldn’t help but notice how technologically backward it was. I’d have easily finished that third turf if I could have recorded my data on a tablet and submitted it wirelessly, as I did observing elections in Libya last July. There are people in each campaign office who spend their days gathering the data, entering it into spreadsheets and transmitting it to Richmond several times a day. Four years from now, I trust all that will disappear in favor of internet-based transmission from the canvaser. For now, we are stuck in the paper and pencil age.
I am headed over to Franklin, half an hour away today, I presume because someone higher up determined that it is now important to strengthen the effort there. Others will continue to deepen it in Suffolk. If enthusiasm and determination win elections, we’ve got a good shot at this one, though of course there is a lot of that on the other side as well. May the best man win.
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This week’s peace picks
It’s a relatively light week for foreign policy events with all eyes focused on the US elections.
1. Political Shiism in the Arab World: Rituals, Ideologies, and Politics, Monday November 5, 9:00 AM – 11:30 AM, George Mason University
Venue: George Mason University, Arlington Campus, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 2201, Truland Building, Room 555
Speakers: Jana al Horr, Solon Simmons, Terrence Lyons
Researchers and experts on Arab politics have often debated the role of political Shiism as a source of regional instability and conflict following the 2003 U.S-Iraq war. Some argue that the expansion of political Shiism in the Arab world is a quest for political leadership resulting from a long-standing conflict with Sunnis, coupled with centuries of Shiite political and economic marginalization. Other argue that political Shiism holds revolutionary elements that can be re-interpreted to fit any political context that Shiites perceive as threatening. This view perceives that Shiite religious elements can be made to fit the current needs of various political contexts and are the main drivers of political mobilization and ultimately conflict. Both these views offer a narrow and restricted description of political Shiism; hence, the literature on political Shiism lacks a systematic understanding of the phenomenon. To address this gap, the research asks the following questions: (1) What is political Shiism? Is it monolithic? What are its forms? And who are its ideologues?; and (2) How do Arab Shiites mobilize for political protests?
In order to answer these questions, the research provides an examination of rituals, ideologies, and speeches of political Shiism embedded in the historical and geographical context of the Arab region in specific, and the Middle East in general, during the last century. Following a combination of methodological approaches, the research will first examine the centrality of Ashura rituals and celebrations in political Shiism; second, the research will explore the plurality of political Shiism thought in the twentieth, its progression from quietism to activism, and the influence of regional politics on its development; third, through analyzing current speeches of Shiite leaders in Lebanon and Iraq, the research will shed light on contemporary political Shiism language, its themes that mobilize the masses, and its connection to past ideologues previously examined.
The research seeks to extend the debate over the forces of mobilization of political Shiism, and contribute to a more constructive and coherent understanding of Shiite political actions in the Arab world. It confirms that the transformation of political Shiism from quietism to activism can be traced back socio-political changes that occurred in the early twentieth century. Additionally, it identifies how conflict associated with political Shiism is not linked to the Sunni-Shiite schism. Instead, the divide between the Arab world and the West is at the heart of political Shiism. Furthermore, the research highlights the importance of Ashura in political Shiism, but it is the rituals coupled with local and regional political events that create mobilization.
One important contribution of the dissertation is that it offers an inside descriptive look into the formation of political Shiism, its main ideologues, and issues that distinguish political Shiism as one of the main forces for political mobilization in the Arab world. The research aims at providing a broader understanding of political Shiism to address the gaps that exist in the current literature, and offer a new way of thinking about this rising religio-political phenomenon.
2. The Challenge of Security Sector Reform in the Arab World, Monday November 5, 9:30 AM – 11:30 AM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speakers: Steven Heydemann, Robert Perito, Querine Hanlon, Daniel Brumberg, Manal Omar
If the first season of the “Arab Uprisings” brought hope, the second season has illustrated many hard challenges, not least of which is restructuring the military, policy and intelligence services of Arab states. Even in Tunisia, where the military played a crucial role in supporting the “Jasmine Revolution,” the ultimate loyalty of the security services remains an open question. To examine this issue, USIP will convene a panel of experts on Monday, November 5, 2012 from 9:30am-11:30am to discuss the institutional, economic and political challenges posed by the quest to remake security sectors into allies of pluralistic democratic change. Please join us for what promises to be a revealing and provocative discussion.
Register for this event here.
3. Turkey in the Middle East: Role, Influence, and Challenges, Monday November 5, 6:00 PM – 7:15 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
Speakers: Omer Taspinar, Bulent Aliriza, Edward Skip Gnehm
Under the leadership of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoan, Turkey is a major player in the Middle East. Turkey’s active involvement in the Syrian crisis, rivalry with Iran, and outspoken advocacy of Palestinian statehood place Turkey at the center of regional events. The panelists will examine Turkey’s rising role in the region, addressing regional opportunities as well as domestic politics.
Register for this event here.
4. Aiding Conflict: The Impact of U.S. Food Aid on Civil War, Tuesday November 6, 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, Hall of Government, 2115 G Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Kendrick Seminar Room, Room 321
Speaker: Nathan Nunn
This paper examines the effect of U.S. food aid on conflict in recipient countries. To establish a causal relationship, we exploit time variation in food aid caused by fluctuations in U.S. wheat production together with cross-sectional variation in a countrys tendency to receive any food aid from the United States. Our estimates show that an increase in U.S. food aid increases the incidence, onset and duration of civil conflicts in recipient countries. Our results suggest that the effects are larger for smaller scale civil conflicts. No effect is found on interstate warfare.
Register for this event here.
5. Post-Election Day Analysis – What Happened and What Comes Next?, Wednesday November 7, 10:00 AM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Attendance by webcast only.
Speaker: Benjamin Wittes, William A. Galston, Robert Kagan, Thomas E. Mann, Isabel V. Sawhill
This year’s presidential and congressional elections are likely to be close—perhaps very close. They will have a profound impact on the nation’s future course in both the domestic and foreign policy spheres. The outcome of the November 6 election will raise important policy and political questions: What was key to the winning presidential candidate’s success, and what do the results reveal about the 2012 American electorate? In what direction will the new administration take the nation? What might a lame duck Obama administration and Congress look like—and how will the negotiations over the fiscal cliff proceed? What will be the congressional dynamics? What are the incoming administration’s policy prospects during the 113th Congress? And what are the consequences for U.S. foreign policy?
On November 7, the Campaign 2012 project at Brookings will host a final forum analyzing the election’s outcomes and how these results will affect the policy agenda of the next administration and Congress. Panelists will discuss the approach of the incoming administration, the political makeup of the new 113th Congress and the prospect for policy breakthroughs on key social, fiscal and foreign policy issues.
After the program, panelists will take questions from the audience. Participants may follow the conversation on Twitter using the hashtag #BI2012.
6. Syria: The Path Ahead, Thursday November 8, 9:30 AM – 11:30 AM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Saul/Zilkha Room
Speakers: Daniel L. Byman, Michael Doran, Salman Shaikh
As the Syrian conflict approaches its twentieth month, fears are mounting that Bashar al-Assad’s regime may stay in power or that Syria will collapse into sectarian war. An enduring conflict in Syria will have far-reaching consequences for the region, could threaten key U.S. partners, and may require urgent decisions. Has the struggle for democracy in Syria been lost? Is there more the United States could do to influence events there? What steps could the international community take to prevent strife and sectarianism from spreading throughout the region?
On November 8, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will explore these and other questions about the conflict in Syria. Panelists Mike Doran, the Roger Hertog senior fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, and Director of the Brookings Doha Center Salman Shaikh, appearing by video conference, will discuss policy options for the U.S. and international community, with a focus on Shaikh’s recently authored paper, “Losing Syria (And How to Avoid It).” Daniel L. Byman, senior fellow and research director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will moderate the discussion.
Participants can follow the conversation on Twitter using hashtag #SavingSyria. After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
Register for this event here.
7. Ending Wars Well: Order, Justice, Conciliation, Thursday November 8, 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM, Berkeley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs
Venue: Berkeley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs, Georgetown University, 3307 M Street, Washington, DC 20007, Suite 200
Speakers: Eric Patterson, Timothy Shah, John P. Gallagher
Why don’t wars “end well?” From Rwanda to Colombia to Afghanistan, it seems that modern wars drag on and on, with terrible costs for civilians and their neighbors. In his new book, Ending Wars Well, Berkley Center Senior Research Fellow Eric Patterson argues that just war principles can provide a framework for bringing wars to modest yet enduring conclusions. More specifically, he criticizes grandiose peace schemes that are not rooted in the realities of security and political order. In contrast, he proposes a model that begins with investment in Order as a practical and moral imperative. This provides a foundation for Justice (e.g. punishment, restitution) and Conciliation in unique situations.
Patterson uses Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, East Timor, the Camp David Accords, and the US Civil War as test cases for this model. The Berkley Center’s Timothy Samuel Shah will moderate Patterson’s discussion with LtCol John Gallagher, a former West Point professor and current staff officer to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Register for this event here.
8. Anti-Extremism Laws in Russia, Pakistan, and China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Thursday November 8, 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM, Freedom House
Venue: Freedom House 1301 Connecticut Ave. NW 4th Floor Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: David Kramer, Virab Khachatryan, Peter Roudik, Aleksandr Verhovsky, Laney Zhang
Freedom House is pleased to host a roundtable with the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom on the anti-extremism legal frameworks in China, Pakistan, and Russia. Moderated by Freedom House President David Kramer, the on-the-record roundtable will provide an opportunity for participants to engage experts and authors of The Law Library of Congress’s report Legal Provisions on Fighting Extremism. The participants will compare and contrast the differing approaches to anti-extremism laws in China, Pakistan, and Russia. The round table comes at an important time as repressive regimes are developing anti-extremism laws and implementing them in broad terms to suppress criticism.
Register for this event here.
9. Afghanistan 2014: What Happens Next? A Discussion with the Former Ambassador of Afghanistan Said Tayeb Jawad, Thursday November 8, 7:30 PM – 9:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Henry Harding Auditorium, Room 213
Speaker: Said Tayeb Jawad
Delta Phi Epsilon Professional Foreign Service Sorority and the Afghan Student Association proudly present “Afghanistan 2014: What Happens Next? A Discussion with the Former Ambassador of Afghanistan, Said Tayeb Jawad.” The Ambassador will discuss the future of Afghanistan with the scheduled U.S. withdrawal and the 2014 Afghan elections.
Register for this event here.
10. Cyber as a Form of National Power, Friday November 9, 5:00 PM – 6:30 PM, Institute of World Politics
Venue: The Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Samuel Liles
Dr. Samuel Liles is an associate professor at Purdue University West Lafayette in the Computer Information Technology Department of the College of Technology where he teaches computer forensics. Dr. Liles is a faculty member with CERIAS at Purdue University. CERIAS is known as the premier multidisciplinary academic center in information security and assurance, and has produced nearly half of the PhD graduates in that field in the US over the last 15 years. Previously he was a professor in the Information Resources Management College at The National Defense University in Washington DC, and prior to that the Computer Information Technology Department at Purdue University Calumet. As a researcher his interest is in cyber warfare as a form of low intensity conflict has had him presenting to audiences world-wide. Samuel Liles completed his PhD at Purdue University primarily studying cyber conflict, issues of cyber conflict, information assurance and security, and cyber forensics.
RSVP for this event to kbridges@iwp.edu.
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Virginia is for…
Suffolk, Virginia. Yesterday I saw the Obama ground game at full throttle for the first time. Lots of volunteers knocking on thousands of doors here in Suffolk. Get out the vote (GOTV) is the name of the game. We are contacting mainly known Obama voters to make sure they get to the polls. Talking to people is the best way of doing this. We try to elicit what their plan is for election day: when will they go vote, with whom, where? When people aren’t home, second best is that big door hanger we are now using.
My role was mainly instructing the canvasers and helping them turn in their data, which are reported several times a day to Chicago. Some people went out two and three times. Others just did one round. A big contingent came down from Prince George’s county in Maryland. A few came in from DC and other parts of Maryland. One woman from New Orleans is staying with her niece nearby.
What are they hearing? A lot of strong support for the President, which is what you would expect in this GOTV phase of the campaign. But they are also hearing about dirty tricks. The main one at the moment seems to be phone calls to the elderly telling them they can vote by phone, which of course is not the case. There were enough cases of this today to suggest it is an organized effort.
I don’t really know what to say about this except the obvious: whoever does it belongs in prison. We are making extraordinary efforts to ensure that our door-hangers, which list the local precinct for a particular area, do not get distributed to others who live outside that precinct. That someone else is trying hard to mislead voters is criminal, even if it is not likely to succeed with enough voters to make a difference.
What we are not hearing is also important. There is no sign of effort by the local authorities, or the local population, to suppress the vote by intimidation. It is hard to tell anything about race relations without really living in a community, but they don’t seem particularly troubled here. Certainly daily interactions appear normal and even cordial. The clientele and staff of the three restaurants I’ve tried so far are mixed. I noted yesterday the all too apparent anger of white males, who clearly feel their position in society is under assault. But I haven’t seen any sign of that out in public.
Virginia claims to be for lovers. I can’t testify to that. But it certainly appears friendly, even if the politics of this presidential election have divided it deeply and evenly.
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Nothing to fear but…
Suffolk, Virginia: Yesterday I canvassed mostly in outlying districts of Suffolk where the houses are large and the plots of land gigantic by DC standards, as well as in a well-off subdivision. Some of this was predominantly Romney country. What, I wondered, was on the minds of the scowling 60-70 year old white males who were so quick to slam the door once I said I was from the Obama campaign?
I got only a few hints. They are afraid: that the president isn’t prepared to keep up America’s defenses, that he didn’t protect our people in Libya and that America might become like Spain, where a couple sitting next to me at dinner had found the real estate market in free fall.
As a retired Foreign Service officer, I did try to counter the concern about what happened in Libya, but then I got back to my room and watched Rudi Giuliani foaming at the mouth about how any real male president would have sent in the military whether the Libyans liked it or not. I guess he has forgotten what happened to the Marines President Reagan sent to Lebanon. And no doubt he hasn’t checked the statistics on attacks on U.S. diplomatic posts, which are down under President Obama.
It was all too clear that the angry white men were afraid the women in the house would vote for the president. One guy even came out on the front porch to loom over my conversation with his sister. He had already voted for Romney. These addresses were on my list because someone there had expressed support for the President. The door was being slammed not just to keep my ideas from getting in, but to keep the wives from coming out to hear them.
But there is something deeper and equally as disturbing going on. The irritability of the white males was a sharp contrast with the upbeat attitude of black men and women, who I suspect will vote in unanticipated numbers. I’m sure there are some out there disappointed in Obama, but I haven’t stumbled on any.
The man who some claimed was the harbinger of a post-racial America is driving a deep wedge between blacks and white males. Both groups want a president who looks like them. Of course Obama, if anyone, is it, with his white mother and his black father. But the white males aren’t buying it. Nor are those who live in the Tea Party houses with signs proclaiming “take our country back.”
White women and hispanics are likely to decide this contest. They seem far less fearful and better prepared to make a judgment based on aspirations rather than fear. That seems fitting to me, as it is fear itself that is our worst enemy.
That is what the Romney campaign is trying to excite in these waning days of what looks like a campaign they will lose. American Family Radio is busy proclaiming that MSNBC is an Islamist television station. Christians, they say, should want a president who shares their values, with the clear implication that Obama does not (and may not even be Christian?) but Romney does. Gay marriage presumably has a lot to do with that.
The polls are showing the President with a narrowing edge in popular votes but an increasing likelihood of winning the electoral college handily. But the only poll that really counts is the one taken on November 6. I’m going back to canvasing.
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Getting my signals straight
Suffolk, Virginia. I ran this morning in the beautiful Cedar Hills Cemetery and environs, which are mostly Black neighborhoods close to the center of this early 18th century town on the banks of the Nansemond river. The historic marker near my hotel informs that the Union occupied the town during most of the Civil War, though Virginia had seceded and joined the Confederacy. I didn’t see mention of either the Union or the Confederacy at the cemetery entrance, where monuments marked more recent wars.
I arrived early yesterday afternoon and went right to work canvasing: knocking on doors looking for Obama voters and trying to get them to clearly commit to getting out to vote on Tuesday, or taking advantage of the opportunity to vote early (in Virginia it’s “absentee in person”) today and tomorrow at the registrar’s office. Get out the vote (GOTV) is the real focus now in the last days leading up to November 6. This means not just urging people but getting them to tell you when and where they will vote and how they will get to the polls.
Lots of people aren’t home on a Thursday afternoon in November, so we leave some leaflets tucked by the doorknob (mail boxes are reserved for the post office). Many of the older folks have clear plans to vote on Tuesday: “Early, up at Book T elementary,” they say readily. Younger people are more problematic. Some just aren’t registered. At this point, there is nothing they can do about that. Others have jobs, babies in arms or other commitments. We try to get them to start thinking about how they are going to make it to Booker T. Washington Elementary School.
The saddest group consists of young men with felony convictions. They can get their voting rights restored, but they have to fill out some forms to do it well before now. Most haven’t, judging from my highly unscientific sample from yesterday. The look on their faces is hard to read, but it seems to me to be saying something like this:
I’ve spent time in jail and now I can’t find a job–why would I care about voting? You and this society don’t want to hear from me. And if I spoke up you wouldn’t like what I have to say.
Just a guess, but hard to imagine that it is any friendlier than that.
In the evening, we phone bank. Most people don’t answer–I imagine they are tired of the calls. Others are happy to hear from the Obama campaign and quickly confirm their intention to vote.
I got no fence sitters or Romney supporters yesterday during either canvasing or phone banking. This is testimony to the effectiveness of the much-ballyhooed data crunching the campaign has been doing behind the scenes. They know who their voters are and focus like a laser on them in the GOTV campaign.
Late yesterday evening two trucks arrived with the “voter protection” materials: a few hundred pounds of the equipment for poll watchers on Election Day. Several of us helped haul the stuff into the office. This was a stark reminder of how complicated the logistics are behind this operation. The large plastic bags of already sorted material were marked for each polling place. No serious problems are anticipated for voter protection in Suffolk, but it is important for the campaign to have its people watching and also able to provide assistance to those who show up at the wrong polling place or who find they are not on the voter list.
I’m heading out now for another day: canvasing morning and afternoon, phone bank in the evening I suppose. This isn’t glorious work, but it puts me in touch with people in a way that my normally bookish existence does not. I’m not cut out for more than a few days of this every four years, but if you want to see your candidate elected this is one of the few things you can do to make it happen.
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Two years young
Peacefare.net is completing its second year today. The Googlestats read as follows:
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