Iraq untethered

I’ve got a piece with that title in the December issue of Current History.  Too bad they left an earlier title, “Iraq Unbound,” on the cover.  Of course the piece is now two months old and a lot has happened in the meanwhile.  Prime Minister Maliki has done some saber rattling against the Kurds, who have managed to respond in a more or less unified way without making things worse.  If you want an update on that, Niqash  has a good one.  I am still hoping Iraq will muddle through, but it is not going to be easy with Syria imploding next door and the Iran nuclear issue unresolved in the backyard.

By way of update on my own views, I did this interview for the Kurdish weekly Bayan on Thursday:

– How do you see the future relations between KRG and Baghdad as the tension is increasing between the two players?

DPS:  I don’t see how either Baghdad or the KRG would benefit from a violent confrontation, but both Prime Minister Maliki and President Barzani benefit from heightened tensions.  I expect them to keep it below the level of violence, but of course accidents happen.

– al-Maliki’s power is growing further as it may expected win more votes in the next elections; how do you see the future of politics in Iraq, as al-Maliki’s remaining in power is becoming more likely?

DPS:  The important thing for me is that the elections be verifiably free and fair, including the campaign period.  Maliki is within his rights to run again, even if he once suggested that he would not. No doubt the incumbent in Iraq has enormous advantages, and Maliki has increased his support, especially among Shia and Sunni voters.  He doesn’t really compete for Kurdish votes.  If someone wants to beat him in the next election, they had better get busy fast putting together a strong coalition.

– The tension between Baghdad and Erbil over the places that called disputed areas especially Kirkuk is going further toward a militaristic one; do you see a solution in the near future for this complicated issue?

DPS:  Iraqis know very well how to divide a pie.  There is more than enough land, oil and revenue to go around.  It would be a serious mistake to allow the division of the spoils to be decided by military action.  Negotiation is what is needed.

– Erbil’s relations with Turkey growing; do you think Turkey will back the Kurdistan Regional Government in any expected conflict with Baghdad?

DPS:  No, I don’t.  Turkey, while increasingly friendly with Erbil and delighted with the economic and political cooperation, does not want to see an independent Kurdistan.