Peace picks July 29 – August 2

1. Squaring the circle: General Raymond T. Odierno on American military strategy in a time of declining resources, American Enterprise Institute, Monday, July 29, 2013 / 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM

Venue: American Enterprise Institute

1150 17th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036

Speakers: Mackenzie Eaglen, General Raymond T. Odierno

With sequestration a reality and little hope for a bargain on the horizon, the US military is facing a steeper-than-planned defense drawdown that few wanted but fewer still seem to be willing or able to stop. What are the implications for the men and women of the US Army if the sequester stays on the books for the foreseeable future?

AEI’s Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies will host General Raymond Odierno, Chief of Staff of the US Army, for the second installment of a series of four events with each member of the Joint Chiefs.

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2. Egyptian Revolution 2.0, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Monday, July 29, 2013 / 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM

Venue: 1726 M Street, NW, Suite 700

Speakers: Bahaa El-Taweal, Khairi Abaza, Reuel Marc Gerecht, Samuel Tadros, Jonathan Schanzer

In light of the rapidly changing situation on the ground in Egypt, the U.S. must now determine how best to support Egypt’s transition, protect U.S. interests, and advance democracy in the region. Are we supporting a military dictatorship over a popularly elected Islamist government? What does the future hold for the non-Islamist Tamarod movement? Will the Muslim Brotherhood rebound from this defeat? What does this crisis portend for the Muslim Brotherhood bloc, including Qatar and Turkey?

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3. Planning for a Post-2014 Afghanistan: Opportunities and Risks, Partnership for a Secure America, Monday, July 29, 2013 / 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM

Venue: Longworth House Office Building

Independence Avenue and South Capitol Street, Washington, DC

Speakers: Ronald Neumann

An off-the-record discussion with Ambassador Ronald Neumann, following his recent trip to Afghanistan, as he shares his observations and insights regarding a responsible path forward in Afghanistan.

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4. Winding Down the War: What Roles for US and NATO Forces in Afghanistan Post 2014?, Atlantic Council, Tuesday, July 30, 2013 / 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM

Venue: Leows Madison Hotel, Montpelier Room

1177 15th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005

Speakers: Joshua Foust, Shuja Nawaz, David Sedney, Barry Pavel

The debate on the US and allied role in Afghanistan after 2014 has hit the front pages once again with reporting that the Obama administration is considering a “zero option” that would remove all US troops from the country. Discussions on this topic are taking place at the highest level, including last week at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ), committee chairman, declared that “the United States needs to make clear once again that we are committed to a long-term partnership with Afghanistan. Period.” Meanwhile, even as the United States debates its future presence in Afghanistan, some US allies have already made post-2014 commitments of their own, including Germany and Italy. Yet the US debate over troop presence is taking place without a vigorous public debate over the nature of US and allied interests in Afghanistan and its larger region beyond 2014. What US military presence, if any, is the best way to secure US and allied interests? What lessons can the United States learn from previous force presence negotiations with Iraq—which produced a zero option—as it negotiates with Afghanistan? What are the consequences for the US and NATO of various courses of action, particularly if the ‘zero option’ is selected after over a decade of US and allied support? What impact would various courses of US action have on Afghanistan’s neighbors, including Pakistan and Central Asia? And how would any future posture shape Afghan politics and Afghan institutions, like the ANSF? To address these and other questions, the Atlantic Council has assembled a diverse panel to talk about the strategic implications of any decision taken by the Obama administration on Afghanistan.

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5. Looking Forward — Challenges Posed by a Nuclear Iran, The Israel Project, Tuesday, July 30, 2013 / 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM

Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, Room B-338 45

Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC

Speakers: Rep. Ed Royce, Rep. Eliot Engel, Rep. Ted Deutch, Ilan Berman, Orde Kittrie

On Tuesday, July 30, The Israel Project (TIP) will host back-to-back panels of experts and policymakers on Capitol Hill to discuss the most recent political, diplomatic, and military developments surrounding Iran’s nuclear program.

Members of Congress and analysts will discuss the status of Iran’s military nuclear infrastructure, U.S. security considerations, and the implications of Hassan Rouhani’s August 4 inauguration. They will focus on potential policy responses to these developments.

Panelists include Congressman Ed Royce, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee; Congressman Eliot Engel; Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee; Congressman Ted Deutch, Ranking Member of the House Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa; Ilan Berman, Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council; and Professor Orde Kittrie, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a Professor of Law and Arizona State University. All panelists are confirmed.

Lunch will be served.

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6. Yemen’s Political Transition and National Dialogue: Progress and Challenges, American Security Project, Tuesday, July 30, 2013 / 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM

Venue: American Security Project

1100 New York Avenue, NW · Suite 710W, Washington, DC

Speakers: Barbara Bodine, Mohammed Albasha, Danya Greenfield, Timothy Fairbank, Stephen Cheney

Yemen is currently in a historic period of political transition following the 2011 revolution and the end of former President Saleh’s regime. At the mid-point of its National Dialogue process, Yemen faces many challenges. Please join us for a discussion of Yemen’s progress to date and the obstacles that remain.

Speakers include Ambassador Barbara Bodine, former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen; Mohammed Albasha, spokesman for the Embassay of the Republic of Yemen in Washington, DC; Danya Greenfield, Deputy Director of the Rakif Hariri Center for the Middle East; Timothy Fairbank, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Development Transformations; and Brigadier General Stephen A. Cheney USMC (Ret.), American Security Project CEO and event moderator.

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7. An Assessment of Counterterrorism Policy, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Wednesday, July 31, 2013 / 8:30 AM – 9:30 AM

Venue: Center for Strategic and International Studies

1800 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006

Speakers: The Honorable Michael McCaul (R-TX), Dr. John Hamre, Stephanie Sanok Kostro

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8. The New Political Order/Disorder in Egypt, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Wednesday, July 31, 2013 / 9:00 AM – 10:45 AM

Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036

Speakers: Hossam Bahgat, Nathan J. Brown, Carrie R. Wickham, Marwan Muasher

In the wake of the June 30 popular uprising and the ouster of democratically elected President Mohamed Morsi, a new political order has slowly begun to take shape in Egypt. While a transition plan has been announced, serious questions remain about the process, including the role and future of the Muslim Brotherhood, the enduring influence of the “deep state,” and the implications for democratic rights and social justice in Egypt.

Hossam Bahgat, Nathan J. Brown, and Carrie R. Wickham will analyze the rapidly developing situation on the ground and the implications for Egypt’s future. Marwan Muasher will moderate.

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9. Attitudes from Tehran, New America Foundation, Wednesday, July 31, 2013 / 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM

Venue: New America Foundation

1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036

Speakers: Ebrahim Mohseni?, Shibley Telhami, Steven Kull, Trita Parsi

The victory of moderate cleric Hassan Rowhani in Iran’s June 14 presidential election greeted many by surprise, yet public opinion polls accurately predicted the outcome. On July 31, the New America Foundation’s Middle East Task Force and the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland are sponsoring a symposium on public opinion and the Iranian elections featuring Tehran-based pollster Ebrahim Mohseni. Mohseni will present the findings of 13 national public opinion polls conducted in Iran before and after the election. Panelists Steven Kull and Trita Parsi will provide analysis and commentary, and Shibley Telhami will lead the discussion.

Drawing on polling data the questions to be addressed are: What does polling data surrounding the election reveal about Iranians’ views toward the regime, the nuclear program, and the West? How strong is Rowhani’s political position in Iran and what is the nature of his support? Do Iranians expect Rowhani to open the Iranian society and alter the role of Islam in goverment? What does his election signal for the future of U.S.-Iranian relations?

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10. Balancing National Security and Free Trade: Regulation of Foreign Investment in the U.S. and Japan, East-West Center, Wednesday, July 31, 2013 / 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM

Venue: East-West Center, Sixth Floor Conference Room

1819 L St NW, Suite 600, Washington, D.C. 20036

Speakers: Rikako Watai, Carl J. Green

As the first and third largest economies in the world, the United States and Japan are major recipients of inward foreign direct investment (FDI). However, FDI from competitor states can raise national security concerns. While the free competition-based economic order established by the GATT-WTO framework does not allow national security as an excuse for protectionist trade and investment policies, both nations have passed laws that allow the government to halt the foreign takeover of domestic companies if deemed a threat to national security. Japan’s FDI regulations are patterned on those enacted by the United States in 1988 and 2007; specifically the Exon-Florio Amendment and later Foreign Investment and National Security Act (FINSA).

Dr. Rikako Watai will examine how the provisions of FINSA are applied and how matters of “national security” are defined under the law. She will discuss how the United States and Japan can do more to refine their regulations regarding FDI by making the review process more accountable.

A light luncheon will be served.

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11. Subcommittee Hearing: The Iran-Syria Nexus and its Implications for the Region, U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Wednesday, July 31, 2013 / 2:30 PM

Venue: Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2172

45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC

Speakers: The Honorable John Bolton, Mr. Mark Dubowitz


12. Where is Turkey Headed? Gezi Park, Taksim Square, and the Future of the Turkish Model, U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Wednesday, July 31, 2013 / 3:00 PM

Venue: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room 419

Constitution Avenue and 1st Street, NE, Washington, DC

Speakers: The Honorable Kurt Volker, The Honorable James F. Jeffrey, The Honorable Robert Wexler, Dr. Jenny B. White


13. Khamenei, Rouhani, and More: Iran’s Power Players, The Israel Project, Wednesday, July 31, 2013 / 5:00 PM – 7:30 PM

Venue: Israel Project, Seventh Floor

2020 K St. NW, Washington, DC 20006

Speakers: Karoline Henriques, Behnam Ben Taleblu

The June election of Iranian cleric Hossan Rouhani to be Iran’s next president sparked optimism among some analysts and diplomats that the Iranian regime may moderate its foreign policy posture. In the days after the election, however, journalism about Rouhani’s past activities and statements by the president-elect himself tempered that optimism.

Rouhani had advocated executing anti-government dissidents, had been a top figure in Iranian bodies promoting global terrorism, and after the election had vowed to support Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Attention also shifted to the role of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who controls Tehran’s foreign policy and had preemptively banned presidential candidates from making concessions to the West should they win.

Foreign policy analysts and diplomats look set to continue debating the extent to which Rouhani is willing or able to move Iran in a new direction.

You’re invited to join The Israel Project for a panel discussion examining Iran’s political and military echelons, which will enable or constrain the policies of Rouhani’s administration. Iran experts Karoline Henriques and Behnam Ben Taleblu will discuss key figures in the Iranian establishment and the roles they will likely play. A happy hour will follow.

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14. Mayday: The Decline of American Naval Supremacy, Heritage Foundation, Thursday, August 1, 2013 / 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM

Venue: Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium

214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington, D.C. 20002

Speakers: Seth Cropsey, Michaela Dodge

In Mayday, Seth Cropsey argues that the precipitous decline of the United States as a great seapower, due in large part to budget cuts, will have profound consequences sooner than we might think. Cropsey tracks the modern evolution of U.S. maritime strength, where it stands now, and the likely consequences if changes are not made to both the Navy’s size and shape and to the United States’ strategic understanding of how to combine maritime and continental force. With the ascent of new powers not likely to slow, the best way to secure both peace and prosperity for the world may be for America to reinvest in the same naval power that made her great.

Seth Cropsey is the former U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of the Navy, having served under four Secretaries of the Navy in the Reagan and Bush Administrations. He also served as an officer in the United States Naval Reserve for nearly two decades. Now a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, Cropsey is a frequent contributor to The Weekly Standard, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post and other publications.

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