Cautious optimism on Iran

There was a lot of buzz after President Obama and President Rouhani spoke on the phone Friday afternoon. Some were excited while others were cautiously optimistic. The Stimson Center and Heinrich Boll Foundation held a timely event Monday morning on “Reform Under Rouhani: Assessing Positive Change in Iran.” Geneive Abdo, fellow at the Stimson Center and moderator of the event, began by expressing her optimism regarding the phone conversation.  She sees history in the making.

Ramin Asgard, former US diplomat, explained Rouhani’s desire to improve relations with foreign powers, particularly Washington, as an economic necessity for Iran. His main promises during the June campaign were to improve economic growth, enhance civil rights and improve Iran’s relationship with the international community. Iran’s economy has contracted by an estimated one to two percent in the past year as a result of sanctions. Tehran needs to garner support for an improvement in its relations with the international community in order to achieve a breakthrough on sanctions. Tehran would like to see all the sanctions lifted in a deal with the P5+1 to give up non-civilian use of nuclear capabilities. However, total removal of sanctions would be difficult to accomplish and unlikely to occur.

Asgard pointed to four factors that favor a deal with Iran:

1. The capacity of leaders to have public and private discussions;
2. Few sanctions remain to be put in place without creating chaos in Iran;
3. A military solution wouldn’t be sellable in the US;
4. And Iran’s role in the Syria negotiations.

Conversely, he spelled out four factors that weigh against a deal with Iran:

1. Regional allies’ concerns that deals would not consider them, creating a fear that Iran would be stronger and more expansionist;
2. Iranian domestic hesitation regarding pursuing negotiations with foreign powers;
3. US public narrative of Iran as an enemy would be difficult to change;
4. And the possibility of pushing demands on Iran so far that it is essentially asked to surrender.

Asgard again noted that the success of these deals depends on how they are presented domestically both in Iran and the US. Both the American and Iranian publics need to believe that their leaders aren’t being soft and that aren’t they being played at the negotiation table. Further, the way to convince Congress to move forward with removing sanctions is to show that it was Congress’ efforts that brought Iran to the negotiating table.

Arash Ghafouri, a consultant to presidential candidates in the 2013 Iranian election, sees the biggest positive changes within Iran as related to social media. The use of social media in Iran is completely unprecedented in the way it has been able to reach people. Social media tools were used during the June campaign. He sees an increase in the use of Facebook and Skype, allowing Iranians to more easily discuss issues and how to make improvements.  Sixty-five per cent of Iranians have access to the Internet. The under 40 demographic is particularly important in the elections, with 51% of those voting for Rouhani being from that group. This demographic also has the most access to the new modes of communication and social media, giving it the greatest opportunity for creating change in Iran.

The panelists and moderator all saw real hope for what is to come in terms of changes within Iran and Iran’s relationship with the international community. Cautious optimism prevailed.