Keep it clean

It’s unusual that I post three days in a row on the Balkans, but on reflection yesterday I did not emphasize enough how important it is that Kosovo’s elections be transparently clean.  The 2010 parliamentary election had serious problems.  There were fewer problems in last November’s municipal elections, but they were not perfect.  I am told the issues often arise within political parties, with candidates trying to falsify preference votes.  I have no way of independently judging that.

But I do know that it is vital to Kosovo’s most important ambitions–NATO and eventual EU membership–that this election go well.  A democratic state has to be able to conduct an election well.  It isn’t easy–we’ve still got problems in parts of the US more than 220 years after independence.

I am told the EU is sending some observers, and the Kosovo government is recruiting some in the US.  But international observers are not nearly as important to a good election as local people, who can much more readily detect fraud and abuse, both at polling stations and away from them.  I am told there will be a nongovernment telephone hotline for citizens to call to report problems.  That strikes me as a fine idea.

What really counts in the end is the attitude of those who might try to abuse the electoral system.  If they are convinced that not only the country’s best interests but also their own will be served by a good election, they will align their behavior accordingly.  If they think their competitors will be able to cheat, they will respond in kind.  Potential malefactors need to fear the consequences.  A big turnout helps to ensure that polilticians know they are being watched, but it also strains the electoral mechanism.

The country’s best interests are clear.  If this election goes badly, Pristina will have a harder time convincing Brussels that it merits goodies like the visa waiver program and a Stabilization and Association Agreement, which I am told should be ready for signature in January.  A bad election would also give Serbs and other non-Albanians pause, raising once again the archetypal Balkans question:  why should I live as a minority in your country when you can live as a minority in mine?

If the election goes well, whoever gains the largest share of seats will have a much easier road ahead.  As always in Kosovo, gaining a majority will require a coalition, one that includes Serb and other non-Albanian participation.  The capacity to form the government depends in part on everyone accepting the validity of the election results.  If I think you may have cheated your way to victory, I’m far less likely to want to negotiate a pact with you to govern.

So yes, the Kosovo election may be dull.  But it is important to those who live there.  The good functioning of the electoral mechanism would itself be a key result.