Drops and strikes

A grim President Obama announced last night that the United States is dropping humanitarian assistance to stranded civilians in Iraq and will also strike Islamic State (IS) convoys if the extremists move on Erbil, the thriving capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.  IS has reportedly taken the Mosul Dam.  Yezidis and Christians, both anathema to IS, have fled.

Continuing to do nothing had become more difficult than doing something, but the President’s moves are at the lower end of the military intervention spectrum.  They fall in the temporary expedient category.  They will do nothing to reverse IS gains but may save some lives and steer IS away from Erbil.

Those objectives rank high as immediate priorities, but they don’t solve long-term problem, which is the consolidation of IS control over a substantial portion of western and northern Iraq. From there it can threaten Syria, Kurdistan, Turkey and Shia-dominated southern Iraq.  IS can also threaten Europe and the United States if it becomes a haven for international terrorists.

The drop that really matters is the political one. Prime Minister Maliki is said to be negotiating the conditions for stepping down from the prime ministry.  He wants immunity from prosecution and and security protection. That would be a small price to pay for unfreezing the political situation in Baghdad, though Maliki is likely to remain a force in Iraqi politics for a long time to come.  His State of Law coalition won the largest number of seats in the April parliamentary election and he won by far the most personal preference votes.

Moving Maliki out of the prime minister’s office may be a necessary step, but there is no reason to believe it will be sufficient. Whoever replaces him will have a difficult time reconstituting the Iraqi security forces and maintaining a governing coalition that necessarily has to include Sunnis and Kurds as well as Shia. New American military equipment will take time to arrive and the Iraqis will need time to learn how to use it effectively. There will be no instant reversal of IS gains because some brave new soul sits in the prime minister’s office.

Meanwhile in Gaza the 72-hour ceasefire has expired. Hamas immediately dropped more rockets on Israel. The Israelis are striking Gaza from the sea and air. My guess is that this will not last. Both sides seem at the end of their gains. But that does not mean there will be a serious political settlement that changes the situation in a fundamental way. We may just be in for another long pause before they go at it again.  That would be a shame, above all for the people of Gaza. Israeli strikes and Hamas drops will solve nothing.