Day: March 3, 2016
Trumpland, not
If non-Americans want to know about Trump’s foreign policy views, the best thing they can read is this open letter from the cream of the Republican national security establishment announcing their opposition to his candidacy. Trump may be expressing the sentiments of many grassroots supporters when he advocates blocking Muslims from entry into the US and compelling Mexico to build a wall on the border, but he is far beyond the pale of elite opinion.
In my view, he is also likely to go down to a historic defeat in November if nominated. His flirtations with white supremacists will help to bring out minority voters against him. His offensive remarks about Mexicans will ensure the Democratic candidate will get a high percentage of the Hispanic vote. We don’t even have to mention his all too obvious disdain for women, gays and lesbians. Ignoring the electoral college, most recent American elections are won and lost in the 45-55% range, by a margin of less than 10%. It is going to be really hard for Trump to get over the 45% mark without minority and women’s votes.
That could be one of the reasons establishment Republicans are in such high dudgeon. They can live with Hillary Clinton’s views on foreign policy, as they are well within the elite consensus. But they don’t want to. None of the signatories of the letter are likely to get jobs in a Clinton administration. Party loyalty still counts for something in today’s America.
I’d be worried about Trump’s views too if I thought he had a serious chance of being elected. His nomination is now likely, which you can tell by the panic of those who oppose him. Mitt Romney is issuing daily denunciations, which will likely have no effect, or even the opposite of what he intends. But the nomination will be decided by a small fraction of the electorate. So far this year, about 15% of eligible voters have turned out. The primaries are attracting a lot of attention, but their outcome reflects the views of relatively few people on both sides of the aisle.
Getting out of a tuk-tuk in Sri Lanka recently, the driver asked where his passengers were from. We replied America. “Trumpland,” he said. No, more like Obamaland or Clintonland in my view. And I’m glad to welcome Republican colleagues in trying to keep it that way.
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Development and reconciliation in Sri Lanka
SAIS student Stephanie Billingham reports:
The tone was optimistic and conciliatory at USIP’s event with Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera last Thursday. Part of the weeklong inaugural “U.S.-Sri Lanka Partnership Dialogue,” the program consisted of Assistant Secretary of State Nisha Biswal‘s introduction and Foreign Minister Samaraweera remarks as well as a question of and answer session moderated by Lisa Curtis of the Heritage Foundation.
Foreign Minister Samaraweera offered a brief history of Sri Lanka. Upon independence in 1948 it had one of the brightest futures among the former colonies, as the oldest Asian democracy with development indicators unparalleled in the developing world. Tragically, all that potential was lost. Devoid of strong enough leadership, Sri Lanka succumbed to inter-communal violence, unable to come to terms with its multi-ethnic, multi-linguistic, multi-religious population. This need to embrace diversity and ensure that it is protected is at the heart of the current “rainbow coalition’s” agenda, which will move forward with constitutional reform and reconciliation processes over the next year.
Samaraweera cited minority grievances as the driving force of extremism and the eventual cause of the war as well as the subsequent necessity of constitutional reform to protect minorities and their interests. There was a golden moment of opportunity for re-integration and welcome to the warring parties, which was “cruelly squandered to serve the dynastic ambitions of the ruling family at the time.” Victory was followed by a “rampage of triumphalism alienating the Tamil people further.”
That era ended with the coalition of the United National Party (UNP) with President Sirisena, which is ushering in a “new culture of consensus… and much needed political stability.” Sri Lankan political parties are moving beyond confrontation for short-term gains to acting for the benefit of the country as a whole. In particular, he mentioned the incredible work of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) in cooperating with the national coalition government, all parties working to “restore the dignity of our nation, our people, and our military.”
On the constitution, Samaraweera said that reforms are necessary to ensure that violence will never occur again. “All stakeholders [must] feel that their development is being cared for and their lives are improving.” The linkage between development and reconciliation is the issue to which the Foreign Minister pays the greatest attention, as Sri Lanka needs help from the international community to “kick-start the economy and catalyze our development journey.” The government’s strategy depends on encouraging foreign direct investment to make trade more competitive and improve productivity. Accordingly, the new government is “very seriously exploring the possibility of applying to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership.”
Samaraweera hoped in closing that with the aid of the international community, including the US, Sri Lanka will “finally succeed in creating a country where each individual can live and work with dignity, with self-esteem and confidence in the future.”
A question and answer period followed, which brought up multiple issues, the most important of which were demilitarization of the north and land release; international participation in the special tribunals; and devolution of powers.
On demilitarization in the North and East, Samaraweera reiterated the government’s commitment to slow but steady release of land back to civilians as well as reducing the number of soldiers by 37%. Furthermore, over the next few months, businesses owned and run by the military would be put under civilian administration and those soldiers involved in these activities removed from the area (but he did not comment on how those soldiers would then be employed).
Another question focused on the President’s recent statement that international participation is not needed in the special courts, despite the resolution Sri Lanka co-sponsored at the UN Human Rights Council that called for international involvement. Samaraweera responded that there are many ways in which the international community can be involved in the special tribunals, from prosecutors to investigators of war crimes. The government will hold to the resolution, he said.
One question concerned the inclusion of devolution of powers in the new constitution, addressing a key grievance of the Tamil population. Samaraweera stated that the new Constitution would protect minority rights and advance their interests, without responding specifically on devolution.
Samaraweera did not discuss one important aspect of Sri Lankan post-war stabilization: how the government will deal with the rise of Buddhist extremism, though he acknowledged that some religious leaders are fanning the flames of inter-communal distrust.
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