Trumpland, not

If non-Americans want to know about Trump’s foreign policy views, the best thing they can read is this open letter from the cream of the Republican national security establishment announcing their opposition to his candidacy. Trump may be expressing the sentiments of many grassroots supporters when he advocates blocking Muslims from entry into the US and compelling Mexico to build a wall on the border, but he is far beyond the pale of elite opinion.

In my view, he is also likely to go down to a historic defeat in November if nominated. His flirtations with white supremacists will help to bring out minority voters against him. His offensive remarks about Mexicans will ensure the Democratic candidate will get a high percentage of the Hispanic vote. We don’t even have to mention his all too obvious disdain for women, gays and lesbians. Ignoring the electoral college, most recent American elections are won and lost in the 45-55% range, by a margin of less than 10%. It is going to be really hard for Trump to get over the 45% mark without minority and women’s votes.

That could be one of the reasons establishment Republicans are in such high dudgeon. They can live with Hillary Clinton’s views on foreign policy, as they are well within the elite consensus. But they don’t want to. None of the signatories of the letter are likely to get jobs in a Clinton administration. Party loyalty still counts for something in today’s America.

I’d be worried about Trump’s views too if I thought he had a serious chance of being elected. His nomination is now likely, which you can tell by the panic of those who oppose him. Mitt Romney is issuing daily denunciations, which will likely have no effect, or even the opposite of what he intends. But the nomination will be decided by a small fraction of the electorate. So far this year, about 15% of eligible voters have turned out. The primaries are attracting a lot of attention, but their outcome reflects the views of relatively few people on both sides of the aisle.

Getting out of a tuk-tuk in Sri Lanka recently, the driver asked where his passengers were from. We replied America. “Trumpland,” he said. No, more like Obamaland or Clintonland in my view. And I’m glad to welcome Republican colleagues in trying to keep it that way.