Russian victory is a nightmare for Moscow

The Ukrainians have demonstrated incredible determination and heroism in resisting the Russian invasion. But they are still losing territory. What happens if they are defeated? Say, for example, that Kyiv falls. What then?

Moscow’s intentions are clear

Moscow has made no secret of its intention to replace President Zelensky and his government. That they can do if the Russian army takes the capital, no matter what happens to Zelensky. They could even name someone in advance.

If Zelensky were to escape, either to Lviv in western Ukraine or abroad, he would no doubt try to run a government in exile. Belarus’ opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, is trying something comparable, though she was never in power before fleeing. Juan Guaido’s effort to establish an alternative government inside Venezuela has failed.

If Zelensky is captured or killed, the situation becomes more fraught. The immediate constitutional successor is the Speaker of Parliament, Zelensky ally Ruslan Stefanchuk. Beyond that, the situation appears ambiguous.

The Russians could settle for partition

The Russians have so far shown little military interest in taking Lviv. They are already having difficulty in the east. Kharkiv, a city with a Russian-speaking majority, is proving recalcitrant. Western Ukraine has far fewer Russian speakers and a more positive attitude towards the EU and NATO. President Putin has seemed insatiable so far, but Ukrainian resistance may force him to accept partition of Ukraine somewhere west of Kyiv and north of Odesa.

That however isn’t an attractive proposition from Putin’s perspective. A successful democratic state on his borders is precisely what he is trying to prevent. If he is forced to accept partition, he will do everything he can to make life hard for the “Lviv republic.”

Insurgency is likely

If the Russians are successful in occupying all or part of Ukraine, an insurgency seems likely. Much of the population is armed. Demoralization and lack of will to fight appear rife among the Russians. Ukrainian civilians are often defying them openly in nonviolent confrontations. Parts of the Ukrainian army will no doubt be willing to fight a continuing guerilla war against Russian occupation.

The Russian response will be draconian. Putin will try to do what he did in the second Chechnya war. Then he levelled Grozny, killed with abandon, and installed and funded a puppet government that has executed his will.

But Ukraine is not Chechnya

But there is a big difference in Ukraine, which is a country of 44 million people (before 1 million and more left as war refugees). Chechnya had fewer than 1.5 million. That is a gigantic difference. Russia will need upwards of 500,000 troops to maintain an occupation of Ukraine. It is using only 150,000 or so to invade it, not so successfully. Reconstruction of Ukraine will be a monumental task. Even if Putin leaves Ukraine to rot, as he did Luhansk and Donetsk, it will cost Russia tens of billions of dollars per year.

The price tag will be staggering

That kind of money will be hard to come by in a Russia under Western sanctions. Oil today has spiked above $130/barrel, which gives Putin a big windfall. But the longer-term effect of Western sanctions will be to reduce economic growth worldwide. He won’t be able to rely on oil above $100/barrel. And Western supplies will in due course increase in response to prices anywhere near that level.

So whatever happens this month or next in Ukraine, the longer-term prospects are not good for Moscow. Russian victory and occupation of Ukraine are Moscow’s nightmare, as well as Ukraine’s.