The easy way out leads to failure

I spoke yesterday at a US-Europe Alliance panel on the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the Western Balkans. Here are my notes:

Let me start by making three point I regard as obvious:

  1. Russian military aggression in Ukraine has a counterpart in the Balkans There the aggression is via hybrid warfare directed from Serbia, mainly against Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Macedonia.
  2. If Russia succeeds in gaining territory in Ukraine, we should expect a far more aggressive effort in the Balkans.
  3. If Russia fails in Ukraine, it will fail as well in the Balkans.
Why?

Why then, you should ask, has the State Department been so soft on Serbia, Russia’s main agent in the Balkans? The US has allowed billions of dollars of development bank investments to go to Belgrade. The Pentagon is trying to revive military cooperation with the Serbian army. The State Department backed unproductive and unjustified decisions by the HiRep in Bosnia that favored Croat extremists and sanctioned Serbs. American officials befriended and encouraged a narrowly elected pro-Russian government in Montenegro. They have insisted on early formation of an Association of Serb-majority Municipalities in Kosovo, a proposition that would weaken the still young Kosovo state.

Some regard these moves as recent. But they are better regarded as part of a long history of taking the easy way out in the Balkans. As difficult as they were, the Dayton accords seemed easier to Washington in 1995 than defeat of Republika Srpska. After Milosevic fell to the 2000 election in Serbia, the Americans quickly gave unequivocal support to his successors. They cut off funding to the Otpor Resistance movement that intended to keep a sharp eye on the democratization process. Senator Biden argued in a hearing several years later that it would be better to get Serbia into the EU accession process than to insist it earn candidacy on the merits.

Serbia’s response

The Serbian government took advantage of that support to reject the Ahtisaari plan for Kosovo’s independence. It instead established Serbia as a militarily “neutral” country. Belgrade rearmed as best it could, mainly with Russian help. When Serbia’s disappointing but relatively liberal “democrats” lost the 2012 election, Washington lined up behind their nationalist successors.

Many thought they could be convinced to resolve the Kosovo issue in a “Nixon to China” move. Presidents Nikolic and then Vucic declined to do so. President Vucic’s minions now talk openly about a “Serbian world.” That is analogous to Vladimir Putin’s “Russian world” and a synonym of Greater Serbia. It is only a matter of time before Serbia walks away from the French-German proposed agreement that Vucic refused to sign last month.

Washington however has been unresponsive and ineffective. Vucic’s unwillingness to sign, Republika Srpska’s “national day” display of force, Belgrade’s threats of military action in Kosovo, the Bosnia HiRep’s decision to change the way votes are counted the day after an election, the compromise of NATO secrets by Montenegro’s pro-Russian government, control of the press, harassment of liberal democrats, and corruption in Serbia—none of these developments have elicited an effective response from Washington.

Unedifying

The explanation is far less than edifying. Washington doesn’t give a hoot about the Balkans. The region is too complicated, too peripheral, too aggravating. So it delegates hegemony to a “pivotal state.” The State Department thinks that is Serbia, which is central geographically, larger than its neighbors, a bit better off economically, and a far more consolidated state than the other former Yugoslav republics.

If you delegate a pivotal state to control a region, you have to put up with most of its behavior, both in the region and at home. If the pivotal state in addition maintains good relations with your adversaries, you will fear a tilt in that direction. Hence the US government’s reluctance to call out Belgrade, even when it sides with Moscow and Beijing in foreign policy and slides inexorably toward autocracy at home.

This is a sad commentary, not only on American diplomacy. It sadly favors a Russian proxy over states truly aspiring to join the West. That’s ugly. But it is also sad for the region, which has good reason to fear instability. Bosnia, Kosovo, and Montenegro all face threats to their sovereignty and territorial integrity as a result of America’s treatment of Serbia as the pivotal state in the Balkans.

But it is sad also for Serbia, which no longer meets the Copenhagen democracy criteria for EU membership. Vucic can do what he pleases domestically, without concern about constraints on his power. And it is sad for Kyiv, which should worry that whatever the Americans agree in the Balkans they may copy in Ukraine. How about an Association of Russian-majority municipalities in Donbas?

To put it plainly: the easy way out leads to failure.

PS: Take a moment to look at Demush Shasha’s pertinent tweets from today:

Four important takeaways from today’s @freedomhouse “Freedom in the World 2023” report.

1. Kosovo is democratic trailblazer of the region. Kosovo made record annual democratic improvement and ranked as third most improved democracy in the world in 2022.

Image

Image

2. Kosovo and Serbia democracies are heading to totally opposite directions.

Image

3. Looking at a longer time scale, only Kosovo and North Macedonia have today a better democracy then a decade ago. Albania has made no progress, while Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia have worst democracies today then a decade ago.

Image

4. Serbia’s democratic collapse is in particular staggering. A decade long democratic nosedive has put it now in a category with Afghanistan and Myanmar.

Image
Tags : , , , , ,

5 thoughts on “The easy way out leads to failure”

  1. The concerns you raise about the US’s policies toward Serbia as a “pivotal state” and its implications over the longer term for both Serbia and its democratic institutions and Ukraine are important to raise. More immediately, the focus on the creation of an Association of Serb Municipalities in Kosovo as part of the Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo should not be pursued in isolation but rather as part of a broader effort to build an Association of all municipalities in Kosovo of which the Serb communities are an important part whose interests are genuinely addressed. If we think of such an association as an institution that provides services that improve and enhance local governance, including the training of newly elected municipal officials, and not just an ethnically driven organization, everyone would benefit. Indeed, rather than thinking in terms of municipalities, I would argue for a *place-based* approach focused on local quality of life, security that promotes interventions with tangible local results for all constituents. Moreover, any funding whether municipalities or place-based might be best supported initially through a joint fund maintained by the US, EU and other countries, not through direct external grants to municipalities.

  2. For all our legitimate concerns and complaints, ultimately it will always be the way America wants it to be and America utterly refuses to favor civic societies and reformers in the Balkans. They have totally betrayed and abandoned them for the past 30 years.

  3. Very interesting piece, thanks. I think there is a pattern here: weakened civil societies across the Balkans, overloaded with implausible tasks and lacking proper external support. Some captured states with a group of revisionist/ revanchist elites who have unfortunately been given space to relegitimate ethno-nationalism and the utility of force. And a divided and distracted international community (principally the US) pulling back from the peace business. This has created a dangeous power vacuum which the EU can’t do much about. It has encouraged backsliding in domestic settings- corruption etc- and heightened the geopolitical games that are being played out in a new, multipolar environment. The reversal of this pattern would help- enormously strengthen civil society, fimly challenge elite foot dragging and backsliding with strong penalties, and stiffen American/ EU resolve to push hard in the region. This would have knock-on effects elsewhere in the world too. Stand up powerfully for human rights and democracy instead of making passive deals with the devil. The dangers of not doing so even in ‘periphal’ areas like the Balkans are now very evident.

    1. Apologies for not posing this more quickly. I was traveling and did not have ready access to the back end of peacefare.net.

Comments are closed.

Tweet