The Ukraine war isn’t going well for anyone

The war in Ukraine has long since become one of attrition. Kyiv and Moscow are wearing down each other down through losses of personnel and equipment rather than decisive territorial gains. The economic warfare has also become a grinding semi-stalemate. It is time to have a look at where things stand.

On the battlefield

Russia has been advancing slowly along much of the front in eastern and southern Ukraine since November 2022:

But the advances are agonizingly slow, amounting to little in the past three months:

And the advanced come at rising cost, according to the UK Defence Ministry:

Russian equipment losses are gigantic, but they had a lot of outmoded equipment to lose. The Russians have improved their battlefield tactical drone performance. And they are raiding Ukrainian cities with increasing numbers of missiles and drones:

Ukrainian losses of personnel appear to be far lower, perhaps half the Russian number.

But Ukraine’s prewar population was less than one-third of Russia’s.

Ukraine’s equipment losses also appear to be less than half of Russia’s. NATO countries have been supplying Ukraine with a lot of advanced equipment. More important is that Ukraine has rapidly adapted its own drone technology to battlefield exigencies.

In the economy

Russia’s much larger economy has held up better than Ukraine’s over the past few years. Russia’s GDP growth has been higher, its (percentage) budget deficit lower, and its interest rates lower. But smart people think the end is near. The housing market is imploding, interest rates are rising, cargo turnover is falling, debt service is exploding:

Oppression of dissent is rising. The space for public debate is narrowing.

Bottom line

The war is not existential for Russia, but it is existential for President Putin. Economic and financial collapse would put him and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at risk. The war isn’t going well for anyone. But Russia’s small gains on the battlefield are generating to big risks at home.